Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 3,2010

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks battle the Celtics in Beantown Wednesday evening in a matchup of two teams that each played last night - Boston at Detroit and Milwaukee at home. We point that out because our database points out the fact that teams have had a difficult time playing at home after squaring off with the Pistons the previous night, going just 31-51-1 ATS this past decade. Boston's 7-18 ATS mark in this series clinches it. Grab the points with the Bucks here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Tom Freese

Hornets at Rockets
Prediction: Under

New Orleans is 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games vs. the Rockets. The Hornets are 35-16-2 UNDER off straight up win. New Orleans is 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall and they are 6-2 UNDER off an ATS win. The Hornets are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 games as underdogs. Houston is 38-16-2 UNDER their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. The Rockets are 6-0 UNDER vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Houston is 6-2 UNDER their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

BIG AL

Oklahoma City @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City comes into this game off a debacle on Sunday, when the previously winless Utah Jazz came into OKC and blew out Kevin Durant & Co. by 21 points. That was our strongest play of the season-to-date (on Utah), so it certainly wasn't a surprise to us. I look for the Thunder to bounce back in a big way tonight, as they'll be taking on the worst team in the league, in the Clippers. We played on the Spurs Monday vs. LA, and San Antone rewarded us with a 9-point win and cover (as an 8-point favorite). But the game really wasn't in doubt in the late stages, notwithstanding the narrow ATS win, as the Clippers scored the last several points of the game before the Spurs dribbled out the final 24 seconds. Los Angeles only scored 88 points vs. the Spurs and that continued the early season trend in which the Clips are at or near the bottom in many major offensive categories. And matters won't be made easier if guard Baron Davis continues to miss games (he was sidelined vs. the Spurs), which forces the rookie Bledsoe into point guard duty. Blake Griffin has looked great for the Clips, but his damage is generally done in the first half. After halftime adjustments are made, he's had much more difficulty getting his points. But even Griffin will find it difficult inside tonight against Serge Ibaka and Nenad Krstic. Ibaka, in particular, has been playing great. And if Baron Davis can't go, the Clips will be at a severe disadvantage at the point guard position, where OKC fields Russell Westbrook. Look for the Thunder to blow out Vinny Del Negro's men tonight. Lay the points.

DAVID CHAN

San Antonio @ Phoenix
PICK: San Antonio -1

The Phoenix Suns are down this season. Losing Amare Stoudamire was a big blow. The Suns are dreaming if they believe Hedo Turkoglu and Hakim Warrick can fill Stoudamire's shoes.

Steve Nash, who for six years was Stoudamire's pick-and-roll partner, is off to a slow start as he adjusts to new faces.

But don't expect San Antonio to show any mercy to the Suns. On the contrary. This is a huge revenge game for the Spurs. They were embarrassed and swept by the Suns in the playoffs last season.

Now it's revenge time for San Antonio.

The Spurs' Big Three of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are healthy. So is Richard Jefferson, playing much better in his second season with the Spurs, and promising rookie Tiago Splitter.

The Spurs have been pointing to this matchup since the summer. They don't play again until Saturday so expect big minutes for their aging Big Three.

The Spurs are 14-6-1 (70 percent) ATS the past 21 times they've been chalk.

Jim Feist

Lakers vs. Kings
Take: Over 210.5

Reason: Neither team is playing any defense, with the Clippers allowing 100 ppg and the Thunder giving up 106. Oklahoma City scored 99 points its last game, but got blown out in a 120-99 loss to Utah. Utah made 7 off 11 threes! They are 3-0 over the total. The Clippers just allowed San Antonio to shoot 48% from the field and .429% from long range. Look for an offensive show, play the Thunder/Clippers Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Houston Rockets -4.5

The Rockets are 0-3 to start the season as they have not been able to close out games in the fourth quarter. Houston could easily be 2-1 as their first two losses came by an average of three points. Their last loss to Denver was a 13 point margin, but the Rockets were down one with just five minutes to play. The Hornets enter this game on the opposite end of the spectrum as they are flying high at 3-0 to start the season even though they were picked to finish no higher than ninth in the Western Conference. I expect the Rockets to put together a full four quarters of solid play in this game. The home team has dominated this series in the past posting a 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams and I look for that trend to continue tonight. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Rutgers vs. South Florida

The Scarlet Knights and Bulls get it on in Big East action Wednesday Night and Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is Rutgers - USF Under the Total. Greg Schiano knows his defense will have to keep his team in this game and we look for Rutgers to take the air out of the ball here.

Matt Fargo

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: San Antonio Spurs -1.5

It’s revenge time for the Spurs which will be looking for some payback tonight in Phoenix. After ousting the Suns in four of the previous seven postseasons, San Antonio received some of its own medicine back as Phoenix took out the Spurs in four games in the Western Conference Semis last season. It was a rough year for San Antonio as it had its lowest win total in 11 years but the Spurs have vowed resurgence. Phoenix is off to its worst start in four years even though 1-2 is nothing to really get worried about. However, there are clearly issues on the new look Suns. A lack of chemistry is clearly evident and rebounding is a real issue as Phoenix has been outboarded in all three games and by an average of 7.3 rpg. The loss of Amare Stoudemire is being felt down low as Hedo Turkoglu has yet to step up. Against the Suns' thin frontline, Tim Duncan could have a big game. In seven meetings last season, he had his ups and downs and it was mostly the latter was he was held to 21 or fewer points in five of those meetings while grabbing 11 or fewer rebounds five times as well. As is normally the case, the Spurs are distributing the ball well, averaging 27 apg which is good for third in the NBA. Another factor so far has been Richard Jefferson after a horrible first season with the Spurs. He has turned things around this year, averaging 17.3 ppg, five points higher than his average in the 2009-10 season. Defensively, San Antonio needs to step up as teams have been able to shoot well, especially from long range. Defense is usually picked up however when teams are more fired up than usual which is the case tonight and the revenge behind it. 3* San Antonio Spurs

Frank Jordan

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: San Antonio Spurs -1.5

San Antonio is off to a good season with a 2-1 record and just a game out of first place. Phoenix is 1-2 and 2.5 games out of first place as they struggle without Amare in the middle. Phoenix is still going up tempo and scoring but their games haven't been close as they closest of their three games has been 8 points. Look for this game to be close, but someone low scoring as the Spurs will dictate the tempo and slow things down winning 93-88.

Rocketman

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -3.5

Both teams come in with 2-1 records on the season. Denver is 16-3 SU last 3 years when playing with 3 days or more rest. Denver is 77-18 SU at home the past 3 years. Denver has had one home game this year where they won 110-88 over a decent Utah Jazz team. Denver is 9-3 SU and ATS overall vs Dallas the past 3 years and they are 6-1 SU at home vs Dallas last 3 years. Lay the small number in this one. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!

Craig Trapp

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -5

Both teams played and won last night but the Lakers game was near 30 pt blowout by half. SAC had to fight it out to the final buzzer so expect the Lakers to be much fresher. Kobe and his knee have not looked to slow him down and expect him to go off tonight. Lakers are so big they will dominate the glass and on both ends of court. This line should be closer to double digits as the champs are in Post Season form already.

Tony George

Charlotte Bobcats vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets -2.5

Take the Nets at home against winless Charlotte who have been getting beat badly. The Nets have better advantages at home and Charlotte is just a deplorable road team at 2-6 their last 8 road games and they just got waxed by double digits at the Bucks in a road game.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Timberwolves/Magic OVER 204

The Over gets the call in the Timberwolves/Magic matchup tonight when you consider that plays Over on any team (MINNESOTA) off a road loss, facing an opponent off an embarrassing road loss where it scored less than 80 points, are 70-35 the last 5 seasons. In addition, Minnesota is 14-4 Over in its last 18 road games where the total is 200 to 209.5. We are seeing 216 points scored on average in these games. Lastly, Minnesota is also 13-3 Over in its last 16 road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, combining with its opponents to score 217 points on average in these spots. Bet the Over.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +2.5

The 0-3 Bobcats will be lacking no motivation, and no confidence, against a Nets team that only won 12 games last season. New Jersey may be off to a 2-1 start, but that's not enough to pull me off of the Cats, catching more than a deuce, here.

Charlotte is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, winning outright by 3.8 points on average in this situation.

While New Jersey is off to a positive start, there is reason for concern when reading between the lines. The Nets have not shared the ball very well, and that will likely come back to haunt them against tonight's hungry opponent. In fact, New Jersey is just 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists, losing these games by 12.9 points on average. It is also worth noting that the Nets are also 16-28 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Bobcats.