Teddy Covers
Dallas @ Denver
PICK: Dallas +4
We’ve played against the Nuggets more than once so far this season, and tonight’s matchup against Dallas looks to be a difficult one for the home favorite. The Mavericks have interior size and muscle – lots of it. Rick Carlisle has three seven footers that he can and does insert into the lineup in Tyson Chandler, Brendan Haywood and Dirk Nowitzki. The Nuggets do not, with Kenyon Martin and Birdman Anderson both sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. That leaves George Karl with only one guy in his regular rotation taller than 6-9. Advantage: Dallas.
Karl was very concerned about his team’s ability to handle the Mavericks zones in these comments to reporters. “Dallas is going to play some zone against us, so we’re probably going to have to tune up our zone offense a little bit. The problems of the NBA are always coming at you…” The Mavs have the best defense in the NBA through three games, holding foes to 37 percent shooting. This veteran squad is also quite capable of winning games in tough environments – Dallas won 27 road games in SU fashion last year; the best road mark in the NBA. No surprise here if they notch another SU road victory tonight. 2* Take Dallas.
Sean Murphy
New Orleans @ Houston
PICK: Houston -5
Both of these teams have been off since Saturday, but that layoff should benefit the Rockets more, as they've had time to regroup following a tough 0-3 start.
The Hornets on the other hand would have liked to have gotten right back on the court after a 3-0 start. Nothing kills momentum like three days sitting idle.
The home team has dominated this series for the most part. Since March of 2008, the home side is 8-2 SU and ATS. Pick the SU winner and you've got the ATS winner as well in this series, or at least that's how it seems.
There's no question, the Hornets have gotten off to an impressive start, but I will point out that they've actually been outrebounded in all three victories, and much of their success has come by way of the 3-ball - they're shooting better than 37% from beyond the arc.
The Rockets have plenty of room for improvement. They've allowed 112, 132, and 107 points but I still believe this is a much better defensive team than it's showed. Save for a poor performance against Denver this past Saturday, Houston has been just fine offensively, averaging over 110 points per game on better than 45% shooting. The Rockets have been excellent from the free throw line, connecting on over 84% of their attempts.
This is a prime motivational spot for the Rockets, and the Hornets will have their full attention, as Houston doesn't play again until Saturday night in San Antonio.
It's not easy to sweep any trip through Texas, and that's the task facing the Hornets after their upset win in San Antonio on Saturday. They're a quality team, but I expect them to get tripped up for the first time this season on Wednesday night. Take Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
Charlotte +1.20 over NEW JERSEY
We’ll go back to the well and keep playing the desperate team angle, as the Bobcats are one of the last five teams without a win but are undoubtedly the most talented of any of those squads. Expectations in Charlotte this year are to make the playoffs and with their Hall of Fame coach and strong starting lineup it should be a realistic goal. The fact that they have started the year with losses to Dallas, Indiana, and Milwaukee isn’t a great sign, especially the home loss to the Pacers, but reason for optimism exists and it starts with Ray Felton’s replacement at point guard. D.J. Augustin is firmly entrenched as the new point guard and has responded by averaging close to 17 a game while only turning the ball over six times on the year. That kind of ball protection is the one needed to strive in Larry Brown’s grind it out offense – one that should score against the fifth worse defense in the East. New Jersey made a lot of changes in the off-season but this is still a team with serious talent problems. Brook Lopez and Devin Harris are good players but the Nets still give big minutes to guys like Travis Outlaw, Kris Humphries, Terrence Williams and Anthony Morrow, guys who are good for 10-15 minutes a night but not rotation players on playoff teams. Charlotte hasn’t played since Saturday and surely must be looking at this game as the one to get their season rolling. New Jersey is going to improve simply because they won a grand total of 12 games last season but we still would be very prudent laying points with them against potential playoff teams. The Bobcats should get their first win here and do it taking back money. Play: Charlotte +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ -1.08 over New Jersey
Things are going from bad to worse for the Devils and there’s no relief in sight. Not only did they lose its most valuable player in Zack Parise, they’ll also be without defenseman Anton Volchenkov and they join a slew of other players on the rack. More than that, however, is the current state of mind of this team, which is at an all-time low. The Devils can’t score, they can’t defend and they can’t win. In fact, they have just three wins all year in 13 tries. On its current six-game road trip they’ve scored six goals in five games and will conclude its trip here. They’ve lost five of its last six and have been outscored over that stretch 21-7. This is not going to turn around anytime soon and it sure doesn’t help that they’re putting a heavy burden on Marty Brodeur. We’ve been saying for two years now how this guys play is deteriorating and that’s not going to improve either. Brodeur is a beaten down goaltender that has too many miles on him and this is going to be his last season as a #1 netminder (if he even lasts that long). The Blackhawks have just two wins over its last six games so there’s no taking a night off here. They lost its last home game to the Oilers but they also have some very nice wins this year that include victories over Vancouver, St. Louis, Buffalo, Los Angeles and in Minnesota. If the Blackhawks show-up tonight and there’s nothing that suggests they won’t, they’ll bury this intruder just like every other team has been doing. Play: Chicago -½ -1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Bettor Wins
Rutgers vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -10.5
USF snapped out of a two-game slide and won its first league game two Fridays ago. The Bulls went up to Cincinnati and upset the Bearcats by a 38-30 count as nine-point road underdogs. B.J. Daniels played the best game of his season, erupting out of his own personal slump to complete 13-of-16 passes for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted. He also had a pair of TD runs. We're taking South Florida and laying 10.5.
Black Widow
1* on New Jersey Nets -1.5
This isn't the same terrible New Jersey Nets team we saw a year ago, one that narrowly avoided posting the worst record in NBA history. This is a new team with a new owner, a new head coach and several new faces. The Nets are off to a 2-1 start this season, with their only loss coming to the powerhouse Miami Heat. This also isn't the same Charlotte Bobcats team we saw a year ago, one that snuck into the playoffs. Charlotte has virtually no talent outside of Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson, who are far from superstars. The Bobcats are 0-3 this season, losing by 9.3 points/game on average. They have a pair of blowout road losses already by 15 to the Mavs and by 10 to the Bucks. This Nets franchise is revived, and fans are in full support of what's going on in New Jersey. The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Bobcats are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 3 or more days rest. There is some nice line value here tonight with the Nets as only 1.5-point home favorites. Take New Jersey and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Antonio Spurs pk
The Spurs will be out for revenge after getting swept by the Suns in last season's playoffs. The loss of Amare Stoudemire really hurts the Suns, and they won't be ready for this loaded Spurs team tonight. The Spurs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, the Suns are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet the Spurs.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have been the worst team in the league thus far. The Clippers are 0-4 this season, with all four of their losses coming by 9 points or more. On the season, they are getting outscored 100.7 to 87.5 on average, and I expect the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder to blow them out by double-digits tonight. The Thunder will have no problem getting motivated for this one following a bad loss to Utah last time out. They have had 2 days' rest to think about it, and I believe they bounce back in a big way following their only loss of the season.
This play falls under a system that is 34-11 (76%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. As this trend clearly shows, teams with two days to rest after such a bad loss tend to give a great effort the next time out. Plus, the Thunder are 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons and 26-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take Oklahoma City Wednesday.
Hollywood Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Phoenix (1-2) has had the benefit of four days off since their 114-106 loss (as a 3.5-point underdog) to the Lakers last Thursday. Coach Alvin Gentry has used this time to work on some of the kinks of his club after the loss of Amar'e Stoudemire to free agency. They should bounce-back with a very strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games coming off a straight-up loss. They now play San Antonio (2-1) who is letting teams shoot 49.8% against them so far this season. Steve Nash and company should score plenty of points against the Spurs as they are shooting 47.4% from the field themselves. Furthermore, the Suns are holding their opponents to just 46% while San Antonio is only shooting 45.7% from the field this season. Not only do the Suns have the shooting advantage (especially on their home court) but they typically raise their level of play against the best competition of the NBA as they have covered 23 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Take the Suns.
Chris Jordan
Minnesota at ORLANDO (-18')
A wasted trip to New York meant a wasted ride to the Big Apple. But it also meant the extra night off for the dangerous and explosive Orlando Magic.
Remember, the Magic are still one of the top two Eastern Conference threats, and tonight I suspect they're going to make that statement tonight, after seeing what the Heat did last night.
If there is one thing the Magic will want to do tonight, that it didn't get to do last night, is erase the memory of Friday's 96-70 loss at Miami, where they shot 30.4 percent, the team's worst shooting percentage in close to two years.
Orlando will have no problem rebounding from that game, as it's had plenty of time to think about the loss, practice and prepare for this contest and a new week.
Play the Magic here, as they should roll to an easy double-digit win.
2♦ ORLANDO
Stephen Nover
New Orleans at HOUSTON (-5)
I am 2-1 on my NBA free selections. I love the huge Wednesday NBA menu so much that I'm doing something I've never done before - putting out three 50-Dime plays. That's how strong I feel about the card. This is the best time to jump on the bookmaker early in the season when the lines are still off.
I have another game I like that I'm happy to offer as my Wednesday free selection and that's the Houston Rockets minus the points at home against the New Orleans Hornets.
It seems strange that the 0-3 Rockets are favored against the 3-0 Hornets. But such is life in the topsy-turvey NBA where nothing seems quite right. The key is getting ahead of the curve.
The Rockets are not this bad. They led in the fourth quarter during each of their games before losing to the Lakers by two points on the road, the Warriors on the road the night after losing to Los Angeles and then losing to the Nuggets.
New Orleans was fortunate to open against Milwaukee, which wasn't ready due to preseason injuries, and Denver, which also wasn't ready due to injuries. The Hornets then beat the Spurs, who had a rare off-game from their superstars.
The Hornets are improved from last season because Chris Paul is healthy. But they are not better than the Rockets.
Even with Paul, I'd give the Rockets a backcourt edge with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin. The Rockets have the better front line with Yao Ming shaking off the rust and rugged forward Luis Scola playing at a high level averaging 27.3 points and 14 rebounds a game.
This is a huge game for the Rockets, who already trail New Orleans by three games in the Southwest Division. The Rockets have covered four of the past five times they've hosted New Orleans
3♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
New Orleans at HOUSTON (-5)
As for your complimentary play, I'm backing the 0-3 Houston Rockets to break into the win colum tonight against the undefeated New Orleans Hornets.
Houston lost a close one at LA versus the Lakers to open the season, and then fell again in close fashion at Golden State before returning home and getting crushed by double digits by Denver.
Expect the Rockets to bring a better effort to tonight's game against the undefeated Hornets, as Houston does not want to dig too big of a hole this early in the year.
This is a triple-revenge spot for Houston, as New Orleans closed last season by winning and covering the last 3 series meetings.
It should be noted that the home team and the favorite in the series is on rolls of 8-2 against the spread. Well, Houston is both the host and chalk tonight so why back those stellar trends?
Take the Rockets minus the points.
3♦ HOUSTON
Joel Tyson
Dallas (+3') at DENVER
I feel sure the Mavericks well remember May of 2009 when the Nuggets stormed past them in the playoffs, stunning the Mavs in 5 games.
The teams have met 3 times since that postseason series, and Dallas has been able to claim 2 of the 3 meetings both straight up and against the spread.
I like the Mavs again tonight, as the Carmelo Anthony situation is now starting to bubble in Denver, and that cannot be good for the team.
The Mavericks are a solid 6-2-1 against the spread their last 9 on the road, and are also 9-4-1 against the spread their last 14 overall.
Gotta take Dallas plus the few points to come through against Denver.
4♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell,
Dallas (-1) at DENVER
With Tuesday's FREE winner on the Blazers, I'm now 9-3 with my last 12 comp selections and coming with another NBA winner for you tonight. Have no worries and lay the small chalk with the Mavericks as they are in Denver to take on the Nuggets.
For my comp winner, the home team dominated the final two meetings between these two teams last season, but in the first matchup of the season, the Mavericks went into Denver and took a 104-96 road win as 5 ½-point underdogs. Now Dallas comes in favored on the road and I’ve got no worries with them covering this short number. The Mavs will walk out of Denver tonight with a big 8-point victory.
Dallas has been off since Sunday when they were in Los Angeles and beat up the Clippers 99-83 as 5 ½-point favorites. They have been playing very good defense through the first three games, giving up an average of 86.7 points a game and limiting the opposition to 37.4 percent shooting.
Sunday, the Mavs got balanced scoring with six players in double figures and center Tyson Chandler getting eight points. The minutes are being spread around so none of the veterans get tired and they’ve got a good mix of speed and finesse.
Denver opened the season with a dominating home win over the Jazz, but that was revenge-fueled as it was Utah that knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs last season. They then started all the Carmelo talk about him not wanting to be there and Denver went to New Orleans and fell 101-95 as two-point ‘dogs. They did score a win in Houston on Saturday but the Rockets couldn’t hit anything from the field.
The Nuggets are going to have trouble keeping up with the Mavs as they are without two of their high-energy guys in Kenyon Martin and “Birdman” Andersen. And it’s usually those energy teams that give Dallas trouble.
The Mavericks are on ATS surges of 17-5 after two days of rest, 6-2-1 on the road, 11-5-1 against the Western Conference and 4-1 on Wednesdays. Denver is on ATS skids of 6-16-4 after a straight-up win, 4-18-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against winning teams.
I like Dallas in this situation to simply outscore the Nuggets. Play the Mavericks tonight.
3♦ DALLAS
Chuck O'Brien
Toronto at UTAH (-10')
Let’s head to the NBA -- where I hit Tuesday's free play on the Heat in a rout -- and take the Jazz as a huge home favorite against Toronto.
10-0. That’s Utah’s record the last five years against the Raptors. And if that’s not impressive enough, this is: The Jazz have cashed in nine of those 10 meetings, including the last eight in a row. But wait, there’s more: Six of the 10 victories have been by double digits, with Utah’s average margin of victory being 13.6 points per game.
Only once in the last five seasons have the Raptors gone into Salt Lake City and been competitive – a 101-96 loss as a nine-point underdog four years ago. Aside from that, Toronto owns road losses of 111-98, 96-79, 114-87 and – last November – 104-91. And of course the Raptors had Chris Bosh’s talents at their disposal the last five years. Not anymore!
The Jazz figure to be extremely fired up for this game tonight after laying a big egg in Thursday’s home opener against Phoenix, losing 110-94 as a seven-point favorite, one day after getting clobbered 110-88 at Denver in the season opener. Utah finally got in the win column Sunday and did so in dominating fashion, pounding Kevin Durant and the Thunder 120-99 as a 6½-point road underdog. Meanwhile, Toronto comes in at 1-2, a record compiled against questionable competition (Knicks, Cavaliers, Kings).
Despite the loss to Phoenix last week, the Jazz are still 26-12-2 against the number in their last 40 home games and 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 contests as a favorite, plus they’ve covered in seven of eight against the Atlantic Division. On the other hand, Toronto has cashed just six times in its last 24 against teams from the stacked Northwest Division (Denver, Utah, Portland, Oklahoma City).
3♦ UTAH
Derek Mancini,
LA Lakers at SACRAMENTO (+5)
The majority of bettors are salivating at this price on the Lakers tonite, thinking they're getting the "bargain of the century" having to lay this little. Think again! Oddsmakers aren't stupid, they know they don't have to entice anyone to bet the Lakers in this spot... A huge majority of the public was already going to bet them! So why such a cheap price? Simple, because for as good as the Lakers are, the Kings are much improved, and playing with a ton of confidence right now.
Both teams have come out of the gate red-hot, but its the Kings 3-1 start that should have bettors excited in this match up. Their offense has been great, putting up an average of 108 ppg on 46% shooting. Right now, they have six players scoring in double figues, led by stud Tyreke Evans. Of course, as the season progresses those numbers will change, but for the time being we're seeing a very balanced, high-octane attack from Westphal's Kings.
The reason you have to like the Kinge here is the Lakers defense has yet to get on track, giving up 101 ppg on nearly 43% shooting. Those numbers just aren't good enough, especially in this match up (on the road, against a red-hot offense). Of course, Lakers-backers will argue that the Kings defense is awful, which is true. But the truth is, if oddmakers thought Sacto's defense was so terrible, then they would've made the Lakers a bigger favorite. Don't fall for it guys, this game will be more competitive than you think. Sacramento plus the points over the LA Lakers Wednesday.
2♦ SACRAMENTO
Scott Delaney
L.A. Lakers (-5) at SACRAMENTO
I know the Kings have looked formidable in winning two straight, but they're not going to get the chance against a Lakers machine that looks every bit like a two-time defending world champion.
The Lakers are undefeated for several reasons, and it's those reasons this team still is my choice as the favorite to win it all - not Miami!
First of all, the chemsitry on this team is outstanding, as the players know every nuance about one another, and play with one another as if they're in mid-season form.
Second, Kobe Bryant has taken a step back and allowed Pau Gasol to sort of become the go-to guy early on, as he leads the team with 25.3 points per game.
Third, this bench is providing quality minutes, and gives the Lakers a solid lineup and rotation at any time during the game.
The Lakers, coming off their highest-scoring game of the season, are leading the NBA with 114.3 points per game. Last night they shot a season-best 51.2 percent in a 124-105 win over visiting Memphis. And to reiterate, about the reserves, the Lakers bench accounted for 50 points, scoring much of that while some of the team’s regulars sat during the final period.
The Lakers have eclipsed 100 points in 16 straight games against the Kings, averaging 114.8 while winning 13 of those matchups.
Look for the Lakers to roll to a win and cover tonight.
2♦ LOS ANGELES
Minnesota plus 18.5