Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Art Aronson

Golden State vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

The Golden State Warriors (3-1) come off a 110-90 beat down of the Philadelphia on Monday. Stephen Curry had 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists to lead the Warriors. Former Sixer Andre Iguodala had 32 points to gain some revenge on the team that traded him away. The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) suffered its’ first loss of the season with a narrow 92-93 setback at the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kevin Love had 17 points, 13 assists and five rebounds while Kevin Martin chipped in 23 points in the loss. I played on the Warriors on the road in Philadelphia but I feel this game with go the other way. The good home teams have the major advantage early in the season and I feel the T’Wolves have caught fire early here with a full complement of healthy players this season. This game sets up as big time revenge as Minnesota has lost the last four meetings between these teams. Take Minnesota to get the win at home in pretty much a pick’em game against the spread.

Bruce Marshall

Washington vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Washington

Quick turnaround from last Friday’s game at Verison Center, won by the Sixers. But after that quick 3-0 break from the gate, Philly crashed with a thud on Monday in lopsided home loss to Golden State, as Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams finally looked and played like a rookie. Wizards capable of gaining quick revenge, and expect more contributions from Washington C Marcin Gortat, just recently added from Suns and likely to begin making more contributions soon for Randy Wittman's side.

Jim Feist

Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -3½

Boston is rested and hungry to win one for their new coach. They've actually been playing good defense, 6th in the NBA in points allowed. The Celtics are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Into town comes the equally bad Utah Jazz, a team a long way from home and in a terrible situational spot, playing the second of a back to back road spot. When these teams meet the home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Jazz is 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Doug Upstone

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Golden State Warriors +1

On Wednesday, Play On road teams like Golden State when the line is +3 to -3, who are a good offensive team averaging 102 or more points a game, against an average defensive team like Minnesota (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. In the past 16 years, the visitor is 33-9 ATS. 78.6 percent.

Ray Monohan

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -1½

The Cavs will get their first win on the road of the young season at Milwaukee on Wednesday. In the early going Cleveland has been the second best defensive team in the league and against a team devoid of good offensive players like the Bucks that should be nearly good enough. They haven’t been scoring a ton of points either but guards Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters are bound to bust out. Both are better than 33% shooters.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -7½

The Clippers won here by 10 last year and have won and covered 3 straight after their opening game loss to the Lakers. Orlando fits an early season system that plays against teams that have covered every game so far. Their is also a nice road warrior system in effect for this game. We want to play against home dogs of 5 or more with rest that are off a home dog win as a dog of 5 or more vs an opponent off an ats win of 10 or more. These home dogs are a dismal 0-14 straight up and 3-11 ats. The Clippers erupted for nearly 140 points the other night and will be tough on a young Orlando team tonight. Lay it with LA.

EZWINNERS

Washington Wizards -1 1st Half

This is a real interesting line that Vegas has thrown out and all my years of handicapping tells me that Washington in the play. The Wizards are off to an 0-3 start to the season and have been notoriously bad on the road for the past few years and yet they opened up as a 1.5 point favorite to win this game against the 3-1 Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers who had an over/under of 16.5 wins before the season started reeled off wins against Miami, these Wizards and Chicago to open the season. The Sixers looked more like the team that they were projected to be in their last outing against Golden State which was a 110-90 blowout home loss. Rookie point guard Michael Carter-Williams who played so well in the three Philly wins, shot just 4 for 17 from the field and committed six turnovers. That is the inconsistency that you will see in rookies and it appears that the Sixers will go as Carter-Williams goes. I look for the Wizards to get off to a good start in this quick rematch so I'm playing Washington in the first half. I don't know if they will hold on for the straight up win, but that fact that Washington who has dropped 11 straight road games against Eastern Conference foes and 26 of 28 since the start of last season is favored, tells me that they might.

Scott Gramling

Ball State vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan +21

Ball State is undefeated Mid-American Conference play, but the Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games against Central Michigan, which comes into this one having won two of its past three contests. The Chippewas have a solid tailback in Saylor Lavallii, who has rushed for 758 yards on 154 attempts (4.9 YPC). In the team's two conference wins this year (CMU has split its four conference games this season, both SU and ATS), he has averaged 167.5 rushing YPG. The Central Michigan defense has surrendered an average of 27 points per game in MAC play, which isn’t all that bad when considering that the Chippewas have faced two of the conference’s better offenses in Toledo and Northern Illinois (Northern Illinois ranks fifth in FBS in total offense). While I don’t give Central Michigan much of a chance to win this one outright, I do expect CMU to cover the big spread against a Ball State squad that has yet to win a conference home game this season by more than a touchdown.

Dave Cokin

Ball State vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan

There’s no doubt as to the superior team as Central Michigan takes on Ball State tonight. It’s the Cardinals, and it’s not particularly close. But the big spread is the potential equalizer here, and I think there’s a reasonable chance that huge number will come into play.

CMU comes into this game with only three wins, but the reality is that they have a legitimate chance to get to 6-6, which would at least make them eligible to go bowling. The remaining three games for the Chippewas following this one are at WMU, and then home against UMass and EMU, all very winnable games. This one is the probable loss, but the mere fact CMU is still playing for more than just pride is a plus.

Ball State is 8-1 and is a lock to go bowling. But the Cardinals have bigger goals in play right now, and they have a huge showdown next Wednesday at Northern Illinois. I’m not huge on look ahead situations, as that’s just guessing what a team’s mindset might be. But the fact NIU is on deck is at least a potential distraction.

As impressive as the Ball State ledger is, they haven’t really been overwhelming the opposition. The Cardinals have been 100+ yards better than only two opponents, EMU and WMU, and CMU is at least slightly better than each of those teams.

Central Michigan has actually had some pretty decent halves this season. Their problem has been putting together 60 straight minutes. But it’s at least worth noting that they hung very tough for the first 30 minutes against both Toledo and Northern Illinois.

There’s also that Ball State rushing defense to factor in this evening. Throw out the game vs. FCS opponent Illinois State, and the Cardinals are allowing 5.3 yards per carry and 223 yards per game. That liability hasn’t cost Ball State any wins, as the only loss to North Texas was keyed by a -4 turnover ratio. But the trend has been consistent throughout the season. The Cardinals aren’t exactly a staunch defensive unit, and that makes covering gigantic numbers a dicey proposition.

I don’t see much chance of an upset here, and when the dust settles it should be a comfortable win for the home team. But with Ball State having trouble getting opposing offenses off the field and with the scheduling dynamics factored in, I think Central Michigan can make this a tougher game than the Cardinals would like. I’ll take Central Michigan and the points for the cover.

Red Dog Sports

Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
PlaY; Boston Celtics -3½

Take Boston -3.5 as Utah is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Boston. Utah is led by Gordon Hayward and lost their last two games by 16 and 11 points. They are playing their 4th game in 6 days and facing a desperate home team with a young coach. Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger should lead the way for the Celtics.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Wizards -1½

The Philadelphia 76ers may be off to a 3-1 start this season, but I am still calling for them to finish with one of the worst records in basketball this year. The Wizards may not have a win yet, but that has not been from a lack of scoring. Washington has put up an average of 99 points per game. The 76ers defense has been horrible this year allowing 106.5 points per game.

When these teams played for the second game of the season the 76ers shot 51.1% from the field, but that is not a sustainable level of production for Philadelphia. I expect to see them put up numbers closer to their last outing coming against Golden State. The 76ers shot 35.2% in that game and were plagued with turnovers just as they have been all season. Washington has consistently shot 43.3% including just shy of 40% from beyond the three-point line.

Steve Janus

Cleveland Cavaliers -1½

The Bucks are one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference and are clearly not playing well to start the season. While they managed to pull out a 105-98 win at Boston, the Celtics haven't won a game yet and it's worth noting that Milwaukee trailed in that game by as many as 22-points in the 2nd half. In the Bucks two losses they have been able to make the final score look respectable but they trailed by 25 to the Knicks and as many as 13 vs the Raptors.

After the Cavaliers nearly blew a 23-point lead in a 93-92 win over the Timberwolves on Monday, I look for Cleveland to come out and play a full 48 minutes tonight, which should end up in a convincing win for the road team. At 2-2 overall and 0-2 on the road, the intensity should be there for the Cavs and that's really the only concern here. They are without question the more talented team and I expect them to show it on the floor.

SPORTS WAGERS

BALL STATE -21 over Central Michigan

We always seem to do well in the MAC and will step in here once again in this beautiful home spot for the Cardinals. First, Central Michigan is a bad, one-dimensional team decimated by injuries playing its fourth road game in the past five weeks. The Chips only home game over that span came last week against #23 Northern Illinois in what had to be considered the Chippewas’ game of the year. They will play for nothing the rest of the year and they will play this MAC power on short rest. Frankly, this can’t turn out well for the visitor. Keep the hammer down on the Chips this week in the teams’ worst situational spot of the season.

Ball State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 in the conference. State matches up well here with an offense that consistently racks up the kind of explosive passing plays that CMU often gives up. Just as important to laying a number this size, however, are two traits that Ball State has shown both this year and last: the ability to keep scoring and the ability to cover big numbers in the second stanza after suffering the occasional sleepy first half. The difference between the top and bottom of the MAC is stark and in this league the top teams beat the very worst by seven touchdowns, not three. Expect to see another example of that here.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Orleans +7½ over MEMPHIS

The Pelicans played last night and jumped out to an early 28-17 first quarter lead against Phoenix but it was all downhill from there. As a 9-point choice, New Orleans wasn’t supposed to lose last night but they did and they also lost their only road game by 20 points in Orlando. The Pelicans were overvalued early but suddenly become undervalued, going from a 9-point favorite to a 7½-point dog overnight. That’s a 16½-point swing in one day and one we can take advantage of.

Don’t ignore the early season struggles of the Grizzlies. They were projected to be contenders this year but look like anything but. The Grizzlies haven't displayed much bite, edging the Pistons in overtime to avoid an 0-3 start. After that scare and miracle win, the Grizzlies defeated the Celtics by seven lousy points. After ranking second in defensive efficiency last season, Memphis is 28th early this season. On the other side of the ball, Memphis isn't getting much production from their small forward platoon of Tayshaun Prince and Mike Miller. This is a Memphis squad that has looked completely out of sorts on both ends of the court and while they may snap out of it at some point, the lumber being offered here is too great to pass up.

Utah +144 over BOSTON

The Celtics come in winless in four tries. Boston has been close in all four games, losing by seven or less in three of them and losing by 10 in Detroit in the other. However, they have not really been within reach in any of those games. Each team the Celtics lost to, the Raptors, Bucks, Pistons and Grizzlies, kept the C’s at arm’s length and so the final scores may be more flattering than the actual result. Boston is in a serious rebuilding phase. The lowlight of an 0-4 start was blowing a 22-point second-half lead at home to the Bucks. With Gerald Wallace calling his teammates "selfish" just two games in, Brad Stevens is truly going to be tested right out of the gate. The Celtics chances of losing are greater than winning so anytime we can take back a price against Boston it’s worth a close look.

The Jazz played last night in Brooklyn and never stood a chance, as they fell behind by a big margin early and stayed out of reach the entire game. That was some bad timing for the Jazz, as the Nets were coming off an embarrassing loss and were plenty focused last night. Utah is now 0-4 and its stock is sinking. That provides us with this strong, buy-low opportunity. When we look at the Jazz we see a team that has played OKC, Houston, Phoenix and Brooklyn. Utah’s strength of schedule is ranked first in the NBA and they now take a huge step down in class when facing these lifeless Celtics. In a game in which Utah’s chances of winning are better than 50%, taking back +144 is where all the value lies and that’s how we’ll play it.

ORLANDO +7 over L.A. Clippers

The Magic sneaked up on a contender for the first time Sunday, throttling the veteran Nets in a 21-point rout. That victory followed a 20 point win over the Pelicans. No Orlando player caught Brooklyn more off guard than rookie Victor Oladipo, who scored 19 points in 21 minutes off the bench and threw down a 360 dunk as the Nets hopelessly watched. The Magic are 2-0 at home. Orlando also had a chance to defeat the Timberwolves in Minnesota before falling in OT against that strong club. Orlando is building a strong résumé and they figure to be just as focused here against another one of the Association’s elite clubs.

Doc Rivers and the new-look Clippers got off to a rough start by falling to the Lakers, but bounced back to rattle off solid wins over Golden State and Sacramento before whacking the Rockets by 19 on Monday. The Clip Joint is as good as advertised but in terms of situational betting, this is the perfect time to step in against Doc Rivers’ squad. For the Clippers, this game is sandwiched between Monday’s early season showdown with the Rockets and tomorrow’s big-time showdown with the Heat. Tomorrow’s game against Miami is TNT’s featured game of the night and the viewership will be huge. It’s being billed as a likely preview of the NBA finals and tonight’s game is likely to be overlooked by the Clippers. That allows us to step into a good situation and take back some pretty sweet lumber in a game the Magic can win outright.