SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS +128 over Pittsburgh
OT included. The Penguins 11 wins are the most in the Eastern Conference. They have just four losses in 15 games but a close look reveals an extremely soft schedule that has seen the Penguins play 10 of their 15 games so far against teams under .500. The Penguins have yet to play any of the power teams from the West with the exception of a game against Vancouver in which the Penguins were the second best team on the ice. Indeed the Penguins are capable of winning but their issues have not been exposed yet in terms of wins and losses. Defensively, Pittsburgh is still a mess and it’s going to catch up with them at some point.
Prior to losing 2-1 to the red-hot Ducks in their last game, the Rangers had won three in a row and four of five. Over that three-game winning streak, New York outscored the opposition 10-3. Outside of Rick Nash, the Blue Shirts have gotten some key bodies back in the lineup and they finally have some home games. Nash may be out for a while but the positives are accumulating otherwise and now we get an undervalued Rangers team at home against an overvalued visitor.
Nashville +175 over COLORADO
OT included. The beat goes on for the Avalanche and it may not stop. Colorado is no fluke, as they possess an abundance of talented forwards, solid defense and they’re getting great goaltending from both Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere. That said, there's no chance that Varlamov and Giguere can continue to stop 95.5% of the shots sent their way and there’s also no chance of the Avalanche winning at this pace. With three full days to allow the recent events regarding their #1 goaltender to sink in and with a take-back of +180, this would be as good a time as any to play against Colorado.
The Predators are too dangerous to be lay almost 2-1 against. Nashville has quietly picked up points in eight of its past 10 games with only regulation losses over that time occurring against St. Louis and Minnesota. The Predators continue on their season-long seven game trip after winning in L.A after losing the opener in Phoenix, despite blowing a 3-0 lead and outshooting the Coyotes 40-25. Backup goaltender Carl Hutton in net is not Pekka Rinne but he’s feisty as hell, he’s fearless and the players are digging down deep in support of him. The price here has huge influence on this choice but it’s not close to being the mismatch that a 2-1 favorite usually is. Overlay.
Phoenix +146 over ANAHEIM
OT included. The Ducks are killing it early on with 12 wins, three losses and one OT loss. Fact is, the Ducks have more points than the Sharks and they just reeled off five wins in their last six road games with an OT loss thrown in. That’s 11 out of a possible 12 points over their final six games of an eight game trip. It’s actually remarkable what this team has accomplished but it’s not sustainable. The advanced statistics did not like Anaheim's hot start last season and concerns were validated when the Ducks lost 16 of the final 25 games they played (including the playoffs) as regression set in. Anaheim, and surprisingly not Toronto, leads the League in shooting percentage at even strength (10.6 percent). When that number normalizes, regression will once again set in.
The Coyotes are a must play here based on their value in this favorable situation. The ‘Yotes catch the Ducks in the dreaded “returning home from a long trip” game. That’s an ideal situation for a team as dangerous as the Coyotes. Phoenix just keeps on winning with an offense that just keeps producing. The Coyotes defense is chipping in big time offensively with a league-high 11 goals by defensemen. The 35 points their defenders have produced is tied for the most with Chicago and Vancouver (the Canucks have played two more games). The Coyotes played last night but they are 2-0 in the second game of back-to-backs this season and absolutely have a chance to increase that to 3-0.
LT Profits
Utah Vs Boston
Pick: Over 185
Something has to give in this battle of 0-4 teams with the Boston Celtics hosting the Utah Jazz, and while the winner of this game could be debatable, we do expect some improvement from both offenses vs. defenses in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the raw numbers have the Celtics fifth in points against at 95.0 per game, but Boston is only 18th in efficiency yielding 101.5 points per 100 possessions, and that could become more obvious if Utah quickens the pace a bit. The Jazz are even worse in defensive efficiency ranking 24th at 103.2 points per 100. Offensively, Jeff Green is averaging a career-high of 16.8 points for Boston and that should keep rising in his first year as a go-to scorer, while Utah has three players averaging 16.8 points or better. The ‘over’ is 8-1-1 in the Jazz’s last 10 games vs. teams with losing straight up records.
Central Michigan Vs Ball State
Pick: Ball State -20.5
While we are not usually fans of laying nearly three touchdowns, the 8-1 Ball State Cardinals are tied with nationally ranked Northern Illinois at 5-0 inside the MAC West, so they should not hesitate to run up the score on the 3-5 Central Michigan Chippewas, especially playing at home on national TV. Ball State should practically do whatever it wants on offense vs. a CMU defense that is allowing an unbelievable 67.1 percent completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks on a very high 8.4 yards per attempt, as well as 210.0 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Ball State ranks 30th in the country in total offense and 16th in passing offense with quarterback Keith Wenning competing 62.4 percent of his passes while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and tossing 23 touchdowns vs. five interceptions. Central Michigan is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a straight up loss by at least 20 points.
Stephen Nover
Washington Wizards -130
The winless Wizards are already desperate for a victory. They have been idle since Sunday and won't lack for motivation in this early-season revenge game.
The 76ers have been the surprise talk of the league reeling off three wins to open the season, including shocking the Heat and Bulls. But the 76ers' bubble burst in a big way during their last game, a 20-point home loss to the Warriors two days ago.
The Wizards have a far stronger backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal than the 76ers and a better bench. Philadelphia's reserves are being outscored by three points a game despite the team's early success.
It's a plus for the Wizards if Nene is able to play. He's been out with a calf injury.
The Wizards are an emerging team that has been saddled by their traditional slow start. The 76ers have been playing way, way above their heads. I look for a correction here with the Wizards getting their first victory.
Larry Ness
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Washington Wizards
The 76ers made a HUGE ‘splash,’ opening the season 3-0, led by a stunning start from rookie PG Michael Carter-Williams. Philadelphia averaged 110.0 points on 51.2 percent shooting in its first three games, beating the Heat and Bulls at home, plus the Wizards in Washington. Carter-Williams won Eastern Conference player of the week honors, averaging 20.7 points, 9.0 assists and 4.3 steals per game. However, the 76ers were blown out 110-90 by Golden State on Monday, falling behind by as much as 39 points, while shooting 35.2 percent for the game. Carter-Williams shot 4 for 17, committed six turnovers and had four assists without a steal.
The 76ers will host the Wizards, who are still looking for their first win of the young season. Philly beat the Wizards 109-102 on Friday in Washington, behind Thaddeus Young's 29 and Turner's 23 points.Philadelphia has now taken eight of 10 from Washington and five straight at home. The Wizards are allowing an NBA-worst 51.2 opponent field-goal percentage and saw those woes continue in Sunday's 103-93 loss at Miami. Washington allowed the Heat to shoot 52.9 percent and committed 21 turnovers. "I thought we battled well," guard Bradley Beal said. "We still had a few breakdowns on defense. ... We just have to knock down shots and limit our turnovers as much as possible."
Now I don’t want to laud the praises of the Wizards but I’m not ‘buying’ Philly’s fast start, as has been reported in many places already, the 76ers over/under projected win total for the entire season was 16 1/2 games, the lowest of any NBA team. The Wizards can’t lose them all and this seems like the perfect spot to earn that first win. However, considering Washington has dropped 11 straight road games against Eastern Conference foes and 26 of 28 since the start of last season, I won’t get too brave and make it a small play.
Jeff Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder -6½
Bottom Line: Tough spot for Dallas playing the second game of a back-to-back against a Thunder squad that has had the last two days off. OKC is on a 19-9 ATS run at home as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning by an average of 12.5 points in these games. Plus, the Thunder are 10-0 in their last 10 against the Mavs, winning these by 7.5 points on average.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +7
The Dallas Mavericks have been underrated to open the 2013 season. That is evident by their 3-1 record against the spread. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been overrated to open the 2013 campaign with an 0-3 ATS mark thus far. I believe both to be true heading into this contest tonight with Dallas lacking respect from oddsmakers as a 7-point dog.
I love some of the quiet moves the Mavericks made this offseason to improve their team. Monta Ellis has been out to prove something this year, and he is off to a tremendous start. Ellis is averaging 25.0 points and 5.0 assists on 53.1% shooting. He has taken a ton of pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki, who is scoring 20.2 points per game.
Oklahoma City was without Russell Westbrook for the first two games, and while he returned against the Suns last time out, the Thunder only won 103-96 at home as a 12.5-point favorite. It's going to take some time for Westbrook to get back to playing at the level he did before the injury, but oddsmakers are setting lines like he's back to full strength, which certainly is not the case.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Bucks +2
The Cavaliers have struggled on the road where they have lost five straight and 11 of 12 dating back to last season. In this season's two road losses they have shot just 36.5 percent from the field. Expect Cleveland's road woes to continue in Milwaukee where it has lost six of its last seven. It is also worth noting that the Bucks will be the much fresher team. They have had three full days off while this will be Cleveland's fourth game in six days. The Cavaliers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bucks.
Alex Smith Sports
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Phoenix Suns
The Suns aren't a good team, by any stretch of the imagination, but they are getting a lot of points against a Spurs club who are not only on the 2nd Night of a Back to Back, but are leaving from the altitude in Denver. Both teams are off of victories last night, with Phoenix winning outright against New Orleans and without their best player in Guard Goran Dragic. 15 points is a lot in the NBA, especially with a young, overachieving team playing a older, slower club. I'll take the points with Phoenix
Chris Jordan
No way the Memphis Grizzlies fall to 0-3 against Southwest Division rivals this early in the season, that's why I'll take them as my free play tonight when they host the New Orleans Pelicans.
With division losses to Dallas and San Antonio, keep in mind they were both on the road. Also, the Grizz bounced back from Saturday's 111-99 loss to the Mavericks with a 95-88 victory over Boston on Monday.
I don't trust the Pelicans right now, especially knowing they lost last night at home to Phoenix, 104-98. Now they go into Memphis, which is hungry for a division win and will get one soundly tonight.
Lay the home chalk.
5♦ MEMPHIS
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Bobcats as the small home dog over the Raptors.
Both teams just played last night, as Toronto suffered the home loss to mighty Miami, while Charlotte continued to be pesky with the underdog outright win at the New York Knicks.
Have to give the play tonight to the Bobcats on their home court, as Charlotte may only be 1-3 straight up, but they have made the points work early this year with a 2-1-1 spread mark through those 4 games.
Charlotte did win outright in BOTH meetings at home last season versus Toronto, as the host team is on a 6 game series winning streak, and has won 8 of the last 10 straight up when these teams tangle.
Overall, Toronto is just 4-13 against the spread the last 17 series meetings, so might as well look for the home underdog to be the play this Wednesday.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
Craig Davis
208 points will be beaten with five minutes to go in the ball game. This number is way too low, and the only reason it's not a premium release is because I don't start releasing NBA totals until after the first three weeks.
Sides are much easier to hit than totals in the first few weeks of the NBA... it's always been that way for me. It seems to me that Vegas is really sharp on the totals early on, but after they really start focusing their attention on the sides, their lines are better and better but the totals suffer a little.
Golden State and Minnesota are two of the best offenses in the NBA through the first week of the season, so I see no reason why this game doesn't fly way over the total.
Neither team has enough defensive toughness to stop the other, and once they both realize that it's going to be a flat out shootout.
Only once in four games have the Warriors scored less than 110 points... how crazy is that?
Minnesota has been under triple digits only once as well, but average four ppg less than Golden State thus far.
Regardless, each team's offensive weapons should have no problem scoring the ball against the other team's defense based on matchups.
Take the OVER as your free play of the day.
2♦ GOLDEN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER
Scott Delaney
I don't know who the Phoenix Suns think they are, shooting out to a 3-1 start, but tonight they're falling back into reality against the San Antonio Spurs. That's why my free play tonight is on the Spurs, who had 27 points off 23 Denver turnovers and limited the Nuggets to 16 fourth-quarter points en route to a 102-94 victory last night.
Last night they rallied from six down going into the fourth quarter then pulled away late for the road win. The Spurs have won six of the last seven meetings with Phoenix, so confidence will be huge for this game tonight.
Dating back to last season, the Spurs have covered five of seven at home, and seven of 10 in Western Conference play. Take the Spurs tonight.
1♦ SAN ANTONIO
Brad Wilton
Tonight I side with the Magic plus the points as my free play winner.
Didn't take long for Doc Rivers to get the Clips rolling, as Los Angeles is off to a 3-1 start to the season, and while they should handle Orlando tonight, not so sure the Magic are going to just roll over and play dead, as Orlando is off to a 2-2 straight up start, and the Magic is a perfect 4-0 against the spread thus far this year!
The Clippers may be a little more concerned with tomorrow night's scheduled game in Miami, and may not be "all in" to put it to the Magic tonight.
Orlando has gone a dominant 9-2-1 against the spread the last dozen times they have faced the Clippers, and I will back them tonight plus the points to keep this one tight all the way.
3♦ ORLANDO
Brett Atkins
The Indiana Pacers are making a solid case for being the heir apparent in the Eastern Conference, if the Miami Heat were to fail to make it the NBA Finals for a fourth straight season. Despite the Pacers dealing with key injuries, they're 4-0 on the young season, but tonight will face a true test in the Chicago Bulls.
My free play is on the road dog here, as the Bulls are back to being healthy and this is one game they need to prove they're the ones who are ready to emerge in the East.
Yes, the Pacers are limiting teams to 85.5 points per game on 37.9 percent shooting, but they haven't faced a team like Chicago yet. Meanwhile, the Bulls are hoping to avoid losing three of their first four for the first time since drafting Derrick Rose.
They're in after losing at Philadelphia on Saturday, 107-104, but only after blowing a 20-point second-quarter lead. They've had time to let that loss sink in and will rebound after three day's off for this one.
Take the road dog.
1♦ CHICAGO
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+20.5) over Ball State
Let's play the "look ahead angle" and back the big dog tonight. Ball State plays Northern Illinois for the MAC West Championship next week so we don't see how they will be up for a Central Michigan squad that is just 3-5 and who was drilled by Northern Illinois 38-17 in their last game. That game was 17 days ago meaning the Chippewas have had 17 days to get ready for the Cardinals. With that extra prep time and a disinterested opponent we think Central Michigan keeps it close.