Dr Bob
BALL STATE (-21) 41 Central Michigan 20
Ball State's offense averages 39.4 points per game behind the arm of quarterback Keith Wenning, who is having a great senior season. Wenning's impressive 8.0 yards per pass play isn't quite as impressive when you consider he's faced a schedule of teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. However, Central Michigan would allow 8.1 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so Wenning should put up even better numbers than usual and my math model projects the Cardinals to score a few more points than usual.
Central Michigan's offense has averaged 20 points per game since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback following a 5 quarters of horrible quarterback play at the beginning of the season by Alex Niznak and the Chippewas are facing a Ball State defense that is 0.5 yards per play worse than average, which is about the same as CMU has faced on average with Rush at quarterback. My math model projects 20 points for the Chippewas in this game based on the projected yardage and that point total makes sense given their average scoring and Ball State's level of defense being the same as what the Chippewas have faced this season. I have situations favoring both sides in this game so I'll go with the math model, which picks this game 41-20. Pass the side with a lean towards the Over.
Andre Gomes
Utah Jazz +5
It's already known that Utah doesn't have a lot of offensive talent on the perimeter. So, it's not surprising that they shot 5-17, 4-22 and 4-18 3pts on their last three games, as they are really weak on shooting treys, excluding Gordon Hayward. Their strength is on the frontcourt and on their ability to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. Yesterday against Brooklyn's super big lineup, who was smart in packing the paint, Utah's offense struggled badly to score down low, ending the game with just 26 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-22 FG near the basket! Brooklyn had merit in that by being a super tough matchup for the Jazz. On the other side, Utah's frontcourt was pounded by Brook Lopez who crushed them with 10-13 FG, 7-9 FT and 27 points in just 25 minutes! The good news is that this blowout win of the Nets allowed Utah to rest their key players for tonight's game at Boston.
So, it's important to know how Boston's interior defense has been playing regarding paint defense and defensive rebounding. The best news for Utah is that the Celtics are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league so far with a very poor 66.1% defensive rebound rate! Their opponents are averaging 15 offensive rebounds per game against them and so, the Jazz will have plenty of second chance points tonight. Boston is allowing 44.5 points in the paint this season and if we look at their frontcourt formed by Faverani, Bass, Olynyk and Sullinger, I believe that Utah with Kanter and Favors will have a mega edge on this area tonight. On the other side, Boston's offense has been struggling a lot due to their lack of talent. This is why they had just 15, 13, 15 and 14 assists on their first four games of the season! If we exclude their game against Milwaukee, Boston scored very few points in the paint, while their outside shooting isn't good at all as well. This line of five points is too high for Utah, as even though the Jazz are on a back to back spot tonight, Utah didn't make a big effort yesterday. So, their edge on rebounding and frontcourt will make this game at least quite competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking Utah in here.
OC Dooley
New Orleans +7½
Memphis is one of several NBA squads that are going through a major shift in philosophy which are leading to early season setbacks straight-up. Most reading this analysis remember one year ago when Memphis led by “then” head coach Lionel Hollins had the best campaign in franchise history going all the way to the Western Conference Finals while also setting an all-time best mark for home victories (32). But stunningly after the playoffs a “changing” upper management team shakeup led to the firing of Hollins who originally was upset when the Grizzlies in a cost-cutting measure traded sharpshooter Rudy Gay. In the early stages of a brand new season Memphis is adjusting to a new regime just like Denver who also stunningly fired a veteran and successful head coach (George Karl) in the offseason. I am aware that visiting New Orleans (1-3 SU/ATS) has struggled ever since the team name was officially changed to Pelicans and that the squad was humiliated just last night in front of their home fans losing outright against arguably one of the league’s worst sides (Phoenix). But the bottom line is that in this geographic series New Orleans and Memphis have SPLIT the most recent four clashes. In tonight’s battle between a pair of squads who have just ONE “spread” triumph between them I will gladly “take” the generous points especially since host Memphis is 0-2 SU so far against Divisional competition. Here is a solid 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (42-16 the past five years) which actually plays AGAINST home teams like Memphis off a “no cover” where the team won straight-up as a favorite, when taking the court in the month of NOVEMBER (check all calendars)
Dr. Bob
MINNESOTA (pick) over Golden State
We’re going to find out if the Warriors have taken the next step, as this is their first game this season off back-to-back victories. Golden State is just 23-54-2 ATS in regular season games off consecutive wins since December of 2007, including 10-22-1 ATS with Mark Jackson as head coach. If we exclude an opponent that played the previous night, which could lead to problems against Golden State, then that record drops to 12-43-2 ATS, including 0-10-1 ATS recently. The Warriors could exhibit a different personality this season but I’ll lean against Golden State based on their recent history of letting down after consecutive wins.