Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday November, 7

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats

A long road trip for Phoenix, 3,000 miles to the East Coast, and the Bobcats are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 against the NBA Pacific division. The Suns are a mess (1-3), allowing 103.8 ppg (28th in the NBA). They limp into Charlotte after losing by 25 at Miami. The Suns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. And when these teams meet the Suns are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Bobcats.

Rob Vinciletti

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks fit a nice system here tonight that plays on home favorites with 3 days rest at -4 or less if they scored 90 or more as a home favorite in their last game, vs an opponent that scored 100 or more as a home favorite in their last game. The Bucks have won their first 2 and have nice rest in this one. They also have home loss revenge for a loss here last season. Based on the system and current form we will back the Bucks tonight minus the short number.

Dave Cokin

Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Hornets
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

The line adjustment on the Hornets is already taking place. Now the value shifts and in this case, we get a playoff caliber 76ers team as a small dog. Philly off the two clunkers vs. the Knicks is not a bad take here. I'll go with the 76ers.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors

This is a good spot for Golden St. to bounce back after its loss at Sacramento on Monday. The Warriors have alternated wins and losses so far this season as they opened with a win at Phoenix, followed that up with a home loss to Memphis then a win at the Clippers before their most recent setback. Three of their first four games have taken place on the road and they will be in search of their first home win of the season before again heading on the road to face the Lakers on Friday. Cleveland split its first two games of the season at home and has also split its first two games of this current six-game road trip. The Cavaliers are coming off an impressive win at Los Angeles on Monday but it was not as impressive as the final score shows. Cleveland was the beneficiary of 25 Clippers turnovers which led to 18 more shots from the floor which is a very big disparity. Cleveland was outshot 52.7 percent to 43.5 percent which shows how much those turnovers in fact hurt Los Angeles. Wins can bring out confidence in young teams but I'm still not sold the Cavaliers can win consistently on the road after going 10-23 a season ago. The Warriors were hurt last season by numerous injuries and that was the plight early on this year but Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut are both back and looking fairly healthy. Golden St. has won all three meetings against Cleveland since LeBron James left and it has won all three of those by double-digits including an 18-point win in the lone home meeting. Both teams are still very young but we give the edge to the Warriors who will be the more hungry team tonight in search of their first victory on their home floor.

Charlie Sports

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -4

The (2-2) Cleveland Cavaliers of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the (2-2) Golden State Warriors of the NBA Western Conference Pacific division in 2012 NBA action. Cleveland has won their last 2 against the spread and started out their West Coast trip with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday. Golden State is 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 NBA games overall. The over is 4-1 the last 5 meetings between the teams. Golden State gets the home cover-4

Bryan Power

Toronto vs. Dallas
Pick: Toronto

Though I lost with the Raptors last night, I'm going to come right back with them as a "smaller wager" Wednesday when they visit Dallas. Though there weren't many positives to take away from last night's result in Oklahoma City, Toronto is 11-2 ATS on the road off a road loss. They also showed great resolve in their only previous time in back to backs this season, blowing out Minnesota 105-86 on Sunday. I'll gladly take the points here.

The Raptors shot only 35 percent Tuesday with just three players scoring in double figures. I just can't see them playing as poorly tonight. I'm not even that concerned with the potential loss of PG Kyle Lowry, as Jose Calderon had been playing well, averaging over 18 points per contest. Dallas has looked impressive in the first two games of this three-game homestand, but with a potential look ahead to the Knicks on deck (where they'll face former Mav Jason Kidd), I don't like them laying this many points. I'm also not convinced that OJ Mayo can continue to shoulder the scoring load with Dirk Nowitzki out.

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Nuggets / Rockets Over 205FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here is a NBA total that I got down on this morning and want to pass along to the forums. Nuggs played a game last night at home & now travel to play a Rockets team coming off an OT loss to Portland their last game & are looking for their 1st HOME win of the young season. Denver of course will push tempo, as that is what they do best & I look for Lin and Harden to push tempo tonight, as they have won both games this season, when they topped 100 points and pushed the ball. These two clubs rank 1st (Nuggs) & 4th in FGA thus far, I believe the fresher Rockets (off L/3 days) will push pace vs this Nuggs team who are playing in a back 2 back and had to travel late last night. I am on the OVER here tonight.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Bowling Green/ Ohio Under 49: This Bowling Green defense has been on quite a roll of late as they have allowed just 6.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while in their last 3 games they have allowed just 5 ppg and 184 ypg. This defense is on fire right now and they should be able to hold down this strong Ohio offense that has averaged 35.6 ppg on the year. The Ohio offense is a run first offense, but they will be going up against a Bowling Green defense that has allowed just 104.2 ypg and 3.4 ypc on the ground this year. In their last 3 games they have been even better vs the run Allowing just 50.7 ypg and 2.1 ypc, The Ohio defense has been pretty solid this year as they have allowed just 22.4 ppg overall and 21.4 ppg at home. They have had some bad games on defense, but have played better of late, allowing just 18.7 ppg in their last 2 games. On the other side we have a Bowling Green offense that is pretty balanced between the pass and run, but they are a conservative offense, and with the defense they have right now they can afford to be. For the year the Falcon do average just 23 ppg overall and 15.4 ppg on the road. This should be a game of running, not taking chances and defense and that will have these teams scoring in the low 40's at best.

SPORTS WAGERS

Bowling Green +119 over OHIO

Another featured mid-week MAC game sees the 6-3 Bowling Green Falcons traveling to Ohio to play the 8-1 Bobcats. Ohio’s best win this season came in the season’s opening week when they went into State College and beat the Nittany Lions in one of the most anticipated and emotional games in college football history. Since then, the Bobcats have played a simple schedule against New Mexico St., Marshall, Norfolk St., UMass, Buffalo, Akron, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan. Not one of those programs is above .500 with Eastern Michigan, Akron, UMass, and New Mexico being a combined 3-34. Norfolk State is an FCS team that is 3-7. There is a price to pay for playing one of the weakest schedules in that it does not prepare you well and it’s not like Ohio was blowing out these cupcakes. They beat Marshall by 3, UMass by 3, Buffalo by 7, Akron by 6 and lost to Miami (Ohio). This is the most overvalued 8-1 team in the country.

Bowling Green lost three of its first four games to then #23 Florida State, #25 Toledo and Virginia Tech. To give you an idea of how well regarded BGU was to oddsmakers, and rightfully so, they were just a 3½-point dog in Toledo. The Falcons rank 9th in the nation in points allowed. They have a strong leader in quarterback Matt Schilz and they have outstanding special teams. This is fourth-year Bowling Green boss Dave Clawson's best team yet and on the strength of a great effort by the best back seven in the MAC, the Falcons are not going to need the points here. BGU outright.

Detroit +5½ +195 over SACRAMENTO

The winless Pistons have won five straight at Sacramento and there’s no reason they can’t make it six. There were some real positive signs in Detroit’s 12-point loss at Denver. Rodney Stuckey and Greg Munroe finally played to their potential and the Pistons strong bench also made significant contributions. The Pistons are not nearly as bad as their 0-4 start suggests and they’re being offered too much weight here because of said start.

The Kings have one win in four games, a two-point home victory over the Warriors. Their starting five aren’t bad but we’re probably looking at a bottom five defense here. They'll get baskets at the rim and in transition and DeMarcus Cousins will wear out some opponents under the rim but it's a roster full of me-first gunners, sort of a West Coast version of recent Washington Wizards teams and we all saw how that worked out. The lack of passing ability (or even willingness) up and down the roster is magnified by the lack of strong shooters. Sac should rarely be in this price range. With the Pistons 0-4 start we get a great opportunity to fade the Kings here and will play a unit on both the money line and point spread.

Jack Jones

Atlanta Hawks -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks are going under the radar this season due to trading Joe Johnson. This team still has a lot of talent, and it even beat Oklahoma City on the road 104-95 as a 9-point underdog last time out on Sunday without its best player in Josh Smith.

With four days' rest since he last played, Smith has had some time to let his injured ankle heal. He was a limited participant in practice Tuesday and is listed as questionable. I'll be siding with the Hawks whether or not Smith plays in this one.

A big reason why I'm fading the Pacers is because they will be playing their 5th game in eight nights, while the Hawks come in on two days' rest and playing only their 3rd game in six nights.

Indiana is without its best player in Danny Granger. It has struggled offensively with him sidelined. The Pacers are scoring just 91.0 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting while ranking near the bottom of the league in both categories.

Atlanta simply owns this series with Indiana. The Hawks have won nine straight home meetings with the Pacers with their last loss coming back in 2006. The favorite is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet Atlanta Wednesday.

Dave Essler

Indiana Pacers +3.5

This is a personal play that might well get upgraded later, but historically the Hawks have owned Indiana, regardless of the venue but clearly in Phillips Arena. Now with Grainger, the Pacers stock is low, and after the Hawks win in Oklahoma City, they're perceived value is even higher than ever! They've only played two regular season games, and I get that the Pacers have played a ton of games in a short period of time. That might bother me more later in the season than it does now, and I think Atlanta's LESS games means less time to shake out a true rotation. The Pacers rebound well, and this game should slow itself down to give more meaning to the points late. I am backing the Pacers. Add to all this that the Hawks have the Miami Heat up next. Rest, letdown late, look-ahead..........all these are possible.

Ross King

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia 9-2 the last 3 seasons versus poor offensive teams scoring 91 points or less.New Orleans as a home favorite of 3 points or less are 4-8 the last 3 seasons.

Hollywood Sports

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

Miami (3-1) looks to build off their 124-99 win versus Phoenix on their home court on Monday -- and they have now covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. And in their last 6 games played with one day of rest, the Heat have then covered the spread in each of those contests. Brooklyn (1-1) looks to rebound from a 107-96 loss to Minnesota on Monday -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss. Furthermore, Brooklyn has now failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played with one day of rest. And in their last 5 games against fellow opponents from the Eastern Conference, the Nets have failed to cover the spread in 4 of these occasions. Look for these complementary team trends to continue in this one. Lay the points with Miami.

Jimmy Boyd

Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Milwaukee Bucks are off to a 2-0 start, but that won't keep me from fading them here. Consider that they are on a 12-26 ATS slide in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins and a 52-81 ATS skid in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins.

The Bucks do most of their damage against sub-.500 foes. Dating back to the start of last season, they are just 10-22 ATS against teams that have a winning record. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 101.2 to 94.5. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are on a 22-7 ATS run versus teams that have won more than 70% of their games on the season.

The Grizzlies have won each of the past three meetings, and two of these were in Milwaukee. Also, the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Memphis.