Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 9

Jim Feist

Duquesne at Arizona
Play: Arizona -8.5

A long road trip for Duquesne, stepping up to face a Pac 12 team. And they haven't fared well in that role, as the Dukes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Dukes are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Arizona completed a quick turnaround last season, coming within a few seconds of reaching the Final Four after missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in a quarter century the year before. Arizona has plenty of offensive punch, of a win over Valparaiso shooting 48% while holding them to 40%, even leading by 20 before winning by 9. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Play Arizona.

David Chan

Rangers @ Senators
PICK: Over 5.5

The 7-3-3 Rangers hit the road to take on the 7-7-1 Ottawa Senators.

The Rangers hit the road for the second time this year, and are coming off a successful home stand.

New York has now won four straight after beating the Jets 3-0 on Sunday, getting 23-saves from Martin Biron.

Keep your eyes on Marian Gaborik who had a season high-tying three points with two goals and an assist in that victory.

Note though that New York lost 5-4 in a shootout to Ottawa on October 29th; Henrik Lundqvist gave up four goals in that one.

The Sens have lost two straight so will be extra motivated here; they lost 2-1 to Montreal on Friday and then lost 3-2 in a shootout to Buffalo on Saturday.

Craig Anderson made 31-saves; Brad Richards has five goals and three assists in his last four matchups vs. Ottawa.

All signs point to a high-scoring shootout!

Dave Price

1 Unit Texas A&M -20

Liberty doesn't have the horses to hang around tonight with Evan Gordon transferring to Arizona State and John Brown being lost for the season with a knee injury. The Aggies are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Akron +7

The Zips will be no pushover for Mississippi State this evening. We're talking about a team that won 23 games in the 2010-11 season and was one of the best bets in the country down the stretch, concluding last season's campaign with a 13-3 ATS run. The Bulldogs were overvalued at home in their opener, as they so often are, and I believe they are still getting a little too much respect here. We're talking about a squad that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games. In addition, Mississippi State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a win by 10 points or more. It's actually losing in this spot by an average of 7.0 points. I expect Akron's Brett McClanahan and Zeke Marshall to play well enough to keep this one close for 40 minutes. Take the points.

EZWINNERS

Temple Owls -12.5

Temple is coming off of back to back road losses to Bowling Green and Ohio, but I like the Owls to get back on track it home against the Redhawks. Miami after opening the season as 0-4 has won four out of their last five games, but it should be noted that they have been playing less than stellar competition in those wins as the teams that the Redhawks beat in those four games have a combined record of 9-27. The Temple defense is the best in the MAC and I expect them to bounce back this week after a bad showing against Ohio to do a good job of slowing down the Miami offense and quarterback Zack Dysert. Dysert is second all time in passing at Miami behind the Steelers Ben Rothlisberger but the Redhawks offense ranks just 93rd in the nation in total offense this season. I also expect the Owls offense to pick things up this week. Temple running back Bernard Pierce is a best and is one of the top rushers in the nation this year and will play in this game despite suffering a head injury at the end of the Ohio game. The Owls might also have found a spark at quarterback with sophomore Chris Coyer who came off the bench last week at Ohio to throw for 123 yards and three touchdowns. Coyer will get the start in this game and I expect him to jumpstart the Owls offense. Special teams could also play a part in this game and the Owls are one of the best punt returning teams in the nation, while the Redhawks are one of the worst. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

Mississippi State -7

Jr O is Super High on this "Mississippi State" team that for the first time in "5" years didn't win "21" or more. We not that they return only 2 starters, but they are studs...... 6-10 Renardo Sidney and transfer 6-11 Arnett Moultrie to lead the Bulldogs back to the NCAA tourney. We will lay it...as are exclusive CBB power ratings check in @ - 11 points today. This is an Akron team that has won "23" or more for "5" straight years, and has some transfers from bigger schools to add to the returning starters. We note that"6" new players who will play a ton of time and this is a tough tough game for them on the road with the small number of +7. They lost their clutch seniors who made the big shots for 2-3 years, and who will step up to take that role? A close first half & the Bulldogs beating the Zips by 10 or better. Zips PUNCH IN @ 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5..

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +107 over TAMPA BAY

After a slow start, the Lightning have really picked things up with six wins in their past eight games to move a couple of games over .500. However, this is a risky favorite because of their poor defense and unreliable goaltending. When you look at the defense pairings for the Bolts (Matt Gilroy and Eric Brewer, Pavel Kubina and Brett Clark and finally Bruno Gervais and Marc-Andre Bergeron) and compare it to that of the Flyers (Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn, Andreas Lilja and Andrej Meszaros and Matt Carl and Erik Gustafsson), it’s like comparing Jennifer Lopez to Rosie O’Donnell. There’s a good chance that Chris Pronger returns tonight and his replacement, Erik Gustafsson has played so well that he might stick around and knock Andreas Lilja out of the sixth spot. The Lightning continue to give up as many quality scoring chances as anyone and these Flyers can convert those chances. In fact, in three of its last 10 games, Philadelphia has scored seven goals or more and we haven’t seen outputs like that since Wayne Gretzky wore an Oilers jersey. Play: Philadelphia +107 (Risking 2 units).

OTTAWA +104 over N.Y. Rangers

The Rangers are hot with four consecutive wins but a closer look reveals that they beat a San Jose team playing its last game of a seven game trip, a reeling Ducks team and a pair of wins over Montreal and Winnipeg. The Rangers are a grinding team that tries to physically wear down their opponents and that makes them tough to play against. However, the Senators always play them well, Ottawa is at home and they’ve already defeated them once this year in New York after being down 4-1 in the third period. The Sens had won six straight before losing their last three in a row. One of those losses was in Boston and the other two were at home against Montreal, 2-1 and against Buffalo, 3-2 in a shootout. Against the Habs, they ran into a hot Carey Price. The Sens are still playing well and that six-game winning streak was no fluke. They play hard and they play to win and they surely offer up some good value as a home pooch against the offensively challenged Rangers. Play: Ottawa +104 (Risking 2 units).

Nashville +102 over ANHAEIM

As the chalk in a horrible situational spot, the Ducks offer up very little. Anaheim returns home from a grueling seven game road trip with just one win. They’ve won just once in its past nine overall and the blueprint for beating this team has been established. You shut down the Ducks top line and they virtually have little chance of success because they have no depth. The Ducks have had a paltry 22 shots on net or less in five of their last six games. It’s also worth noting that the Predators have that blueprint, as they beat the Ducks 3-0 10 days ago and they knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. Nashville is coming off a 4-3 loss to the Kings last night but they were not outplayed. Prior to that they had won four of five and they’ve also scored three goals or more in six straight. The Preds wrap up a five game trip here and they’re going to give it everything they have, just like they do every time they step on the ice. Play: Nashville +102 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Texas A&M Aggies -20

Liberty will be overmatched against the 19th ranked Aggies tonight. The Flames carry no momentum into the season after ending last season on a five-game skid. Their leading scorer, Evan Gordon, who averaged 14.4 points in 2010-11, is now an ASU Sun Devil, and John Brown, who averaged 11.3 points and a team-high 10.8 rebounds, has been lost for the season with a knee injury. Jesse Sanders is a player, but he doesn't have near the supporting cast he had last season. Look for the Texas A&M defense to be the difference tonight, as it so often is. The Aggies are a reliable 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

Scott Rickenbach

Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Nashville Predators

Anaheim has lost five straight games (0-3-2) dating back to an October 29th loss to the Predators, 3-0. On Saturday, the Ducks lost 5-0 to Detroit in what HC Randy Carlyle called his team’s “worst performance of the year.” Unfortunately for Ducks fans, things won’t turn around tonight. Look for the Ducks to lose their sixth straight game against a Predators team poised to bounce back from a 4-3 loss to the Kings yesterday.

The story of this game will be Anaheim’s inability to score on Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne. Rinne is a solid 7-4-2 with a 2.33 GAA and three shutouts on the year. He’s won five straight regular season match-ups versus the Ducks, posting a phenomenal 1.27 GAA and two shutouts. Anaheim is the lowest scoring team in the NHL this season, averaging just 1.9 goals per game. Over the team’s last five games, the Ducks have scored just 6 goals. They’ll struggle to score on Rinne and the Preds tonight.

The Predators knocked the Ducks out of the playoffs in six games last season, and they have won 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams. They’ll improve on this trend tonight. Play on Nashville.

Nick Parsons

Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

The Preds are 7-5-1-1; they lost 4-3 at LA last night; tonight marks their fifth straight road game.

Pekka Rinne gets the call in net in the second game of the back to back; Rinne made 20-saves in the shutout victory over the Ducks last month.

Rinne had a 2.67 GAA in three starts at Anaheim in the playoffs last year, winning two of them.

On the other bench: The Ducks are 5-6-1-2, including 3-2 in front of the home town crowd; Anaheim just completed a brutal road trip in which it sent 1-6, including a 5-0 setback in Detroit on Saturday.

Jonas Hiller stands between the pipes for the home side; Hiller has had an up and down start, but looks to get back on track here as the Ducks play 11 of their next 13 at the Honda Center.

Hiller wasn't in last year's playoff battle with Nashville, but is 3-6-0 with a 2.74 GAA in 10-career starts vs. them.

Bottom line: This is what you call: "fantastic line value".

Nashville played just 24 hours ago, and is wrapping up a five-game road trip, before enjoying two days off and a matchup vs. the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night.

Anaheim has had three days off to refocus and concentrate on the task at hand, and is looking to start this home stand off on the "right foot".

When taking all of the above factors into consideration, I believe it does indeed add up to a play on the ANAHEIM DUCKS!

Vegas Experts

Akron at Mississippi State
Play: Akron

Mississippi State is a seven point favorite in this home matchup tonight against Akron after opening their season with a 76-66 win over E Kentucky. They didn’t cover that matchup as they were laying 16.5 points and will fail to cover again tonight. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after a win by ten points or more and seem to start the season off slow with a 0-6 ATS in all November games over the last two seasons. Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS when coming off a home win and seven points seem to be a few too many for this matchup against Akron. Last season, Akron was 23-13 SU, 19-13 ATS and had a strong 12-7 ATS road record. The Bulldogs seemed to be over-rated at home last season, with a terrible 4-8 ATS record and will struggle to cover the points tonight.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Temple/ Miami Under 44.5: Gotta feel there is a lot of value on the Under in this game (wow I promised i myself i would never start talking that way), especially after the high scoring game the Owls played last week and with the way MAC games have been so high scoring during the last 2 weeks. last week Temple allowed 35 points and 521 yards to Ohio and you have to believe that this defense will not take that lightly and come out with a very good effort. Despite last weeks poor showing the Owls are still 10th overall, allowing just 292 ypg and they are in the top 20 vs both the pass and run. Temple has allowed more than 14 points just twice this year (Toledo & Ohio) and they are 4th in the nation in points allowed (12.8). This is still a very tough defense that should bounce back vs a Miami offense that is 93rd overall (349.8 ypg) and dead last in the nation in rushing (79.7 ypg), plus 97rd in scoring (22.2 ppg). Miami is 26th in passing (271.1 ypg) and they do put up 259.5 ypg yards passing on the road, but they have only faced two decent defenses on the road (Kent State and Missouri and they averaged just 159.5 ypg in those games. This will be by far the best passing defense this team has faced all year.Temple is not the only team here that knows how to play some defense. In the last 4 games Miami has allowed 333 ypg and 17 ppg, but 1 of those games were vs Toledo's basketball offense and the Temple offenses is not even close to that, so if we throw out the Toledo game then the Redhawks have allowed just 6.3 ppg and 267.7 ypg to the other 3 teams. Overall Miami is 42nd in total defense and 10th vs the pass. The can be run on (75th) and that's were this temple team will attack. last week the Owls got caught up in a shootout and that is just not their game as they rely on their 8th ranked rushing offense and a very strong defense to get the job done. Temple likes to wear you down with long drives from their run game and that eats a ton of clock. They will go back to that game plan tonight. Despit last weeks high scoring game, Temple games have averaged just 41.8 ppg overall and 39 ppg at home. Miami has scored just 22.2 ppg overall and 16.5 ppg on the road, with their road games averaging just 41 ppg. This game did open up at 41.5 and that's about right, but do to all the MAC scoring of late, it has been bet up to 44.5 and I feel that it just way to high for game where the teams just don't play high scoring games. I see no more than 35-38 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 5-16 when Miami is a road dog of 10.5 or greater, while the OU is 1-6 in Temple's last 7 Conference games.

3 UNIT PLAY

St John's/ Lehigh under 148.5: The Redmen have lost over 96% of their scoring from last year, so until their offense gels a bit they will have to rely on defense. Last night they did play good defense, allowing William & Mary to hit just 45% of their shots and put up just 59 points, plus they also forced 21 TO's, while committing just 4 of their own. St Johns also had 12 steals in the game. Lehigh is a team that likes the uptempo style of play and that could pose a problem for a St John's team that only goes 7 deep, so i look for the Redmen to really slow this one down. I see this one in the mid 130 range.

2 UNIT PLAY

Arizona/ Duquesne Under 145.5: Like the Redmen, the Cats are also missing some offense from last years team that put up nearly 77 ppg. They did lay pretty good defense last year holding teams to 69.7 ppg and they started out well this year holding Valpo to just 40.4% shooting and 64 points in last night's win. Duquesne can score a ton and they do play uptempo, but I exp[ect the Arizona defense to control this game and not let it get out of hand. Another one I see in the mid 130's.

NHL Predictions

Nashville Predators +111

The Predators are coming off a 4-3 loss last night in Los Angeles, which comes after previously winning 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight's game in Anaheim is their 5th and final game of their road trip and the Predators look to finish it off 3-2 with a win tonight. Nashville is 7-5-2 on the season. Anaheim returns home after a brutal 7 game road trip where they went just 1-6. The Ducks have lost 5 straight games, and 8 of their last 9, making them 5-6-3 on the year. On the season the Ducks are averaging just 1.9 goals per game, while allowing 2.71 goals against per game. Nashville has enjoyed 6 straight games of scoring 3 or more goals, and has increased their goals per game to 2.7 coming into tonight. With the night off last night Pekka Rinne should be between the pipes tonight. He is 7-4-2 with a 2.33 GAA and .929 SV %. Lifetime against the Ducks Rinne has enjoyed a lot of succes, with a 7-2-2 record and 1.95 GAA. The Predators will most likely be without David Legwand, but should get Sergei Kostitsyn back tonight. In net for the Ducks will most likely be Jonas Hiller, who is just 4-5-3 with a 2.85 GAA and .902 SV% on the season. In their last 5 games the Ducks are averaging 3.40 goals against, while only scoring 1.20 goals per game. Coming off of a long road trip is hard enough for a team, but coming off a road trip as bad as the Ducks went through will be even tougher to get up for tonight's game. One of those games on Anaheim's road trip was against Nashville, who they lost to 3-0. Nashville has taken 7 of these two teams last 9 meetings, which includes the first round series win in last years postseason. The Ducks are in a bad spot for tonight's game and I look for Nashville to continue their succes against Anaheim with Rinne leading the way with another solid outing against the Ducks. Take the Preds as a very live underdog.

Rob Vinciletti

Liberty Flames vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -19½

Texas A&M is in a solid spot here at home over a Liberty team that is 0-4 ats of late in non conference games. They were last seen losing in their conference tournament as an 11 point favorite to High Point. Now they travel to this Big 12 venue knowing they are 0-5 vs Big 12 teams with most games nit even getting lined. The Aggies are 21-8 ats including 7-1 most recently in November and this is one of those games on the schedule that has blowout written all over it. Look for Texas A&M to coast to a win and cover tonight.