Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 13,2010

David Chan

Central Florida @ Marshall
PICK: Marshall +5.5

Central Florida has been very strong this season defensively. But the lure of getting points with Marshall at home is too tempting to pass up.

I was two-for-two on my free college football selections last week playing mid-week games and look to make it three-for-three by backing the home underdog Thundering Herd.

Marshall is 12-4 ATS the last 16 times it has been a home 'dog. The Thundering Herd own the best home record in Division I history, as pointed out by fellow Covers Expert handicapper Marc Lawrence in his annual Playbook magazine. Marshall is 120-21 lifetime at Joan C. Edwards Stadium.

Central Florida is one-dimensional. The Knights can run, but rank 100th in passing yards with freshman quarterback Jeff Godfrey.

Marshall is vulnerable in the secondary, but tough in its defensive line. That's the Thundering Herd's most talented area.

Marshall is talented, too, offensively but has underachieved. A tough schedule has had something to do with that.

The Thundering Herd lost a road game to top-ranked Ohio State and should have beaten 25th-rated West Virginia blowing a 21-6 fourth-quarter lead in an overtime loss. That loss carried over into the following week when the Herd was upset by Bowling Green.

Central Florida's schedule hasn't been nearly as difficult. Marshall isn't as bad as its 1-4 record. The Thundering Herd will be sky high for this nationally televised matchup knowing a win is crucial for their Conference USA hopes.

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last nine times.

Jim Feist

Jim Feist

Islanders vs. Capitals
Take: Over 6

A pair of teams that are scorching the nets and not playing any defense. These are two of the top scoring teams in the NHL, with Washington sitting No. 1 in goals, averaging 4 per contest, led by Alex Ovechkin and center Brooks Laich. Meanwhile the Islanders have been scoring and allowing roughly 5 goals per game. Look for an offensive show on the ice, Play the Islanders/Capitals Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Pittsburgh Penguins -195

Not successful with my NHL free play last night, but I will give hockey one more shot tonight. The Penguins picked up their first win of the season on Monday night in New Jersey and now they will try to win at home for the first time in three tries. The Maple Leafs are off to a nice 2-0 start to the season, but this is their first road game of the season and the Maple Leafs were just 6-20 in their last twenty six road games last season. Toronto also dropped three out of four meetings against Pittsburgh last year and I expect the Penguins slumping superstars to get on track and pick up the win on their home ice. Play on Pittsburgh.

wow i need some winners today ive been getting my pantties pulled, i do like ucf tonight, even know marshall due for a big game. blade bring the money today. that nhl yesterday almost when our way, i had atl & under on turn & straight. the det lost in shootout

Rocketman

Central Florida @ Marshall
Play: Central Florida -5.5

Central Florida is 3-2 overall this year while Marshall comes in with a 1-4 record on the season. Central Florida is 17-4 ATS last 3 years when playing with 6 days or less rest. Central Florida is 10-3 ATS last 3 years on the road. Central Florida is allowing only 13.8 points per game overall this year and 13.5 points per game on the road this season. Marshall is allowing 35.4 points per game overall this year. Central Florida is 6-2 ATS overall vs Marshall since 1992 including 4-0 ATS at Marshall since 1992. We'll recommend a small play on Central Florida tonight!

Tom Freese

New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller is one of the top goalies in the NHL Miller is off to a slow start as the Sabres are off to 1-2 start this season. Despite the slow start in goal Miller will be one of the best goalies when it is all said and done. New Jersey is winless this year. Goaltender Martin Brodeur has a 4.11 goals against average and he is no longer an elite goaltender. The are 2-10 their last 12 games as underdogs. New Jersey is 8-20 their last 28 games and they are 0-6 their last 6 games overall.

Doug Upstone

Central Fla vs. Marshall
Play: Under 45

Marshall has a big night planned getting ready to host Central Florida. The crowd is expected to be all dressed in white and Marshall is long known for having a tremendous home field edge, especially when it is a big game. The Thundering Herd were rounded up Southern Miss in there last outing, losing 41-16 and being outgained 369-180.

Central Florida was near perfect in crushing UAB last Wednesday 42-7, outgained the Blazers by a 379 to 269 margin. The Knights opened as 6.5-point favorites and have dropped a point to 5.5 and the total has also gone south from 46.5 to 44.

This sets up a total system for tonight that reads this way - Play Under on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, against opponent after outgaining their opposition by 125 or more total yards in their last outing. Since 2006, this system is 25-4, 86.2 percent.

John Ryan

New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: New Jersey Devils

Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that NJ will get their first win of the season after an 0-3 start. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 58-36 for 61.7% winners since 2005 with the average play being a +123 DOG. Play against a favorite against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and is a team having won between 30% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season. NJ is a solid 15-4 against the money line (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 against the money line (+8.8 Units) against poor power play teams scoring on < 14.5% of their chances over the last 3 seasons. Take the Devils.

Sean Murphy

Vancouver @ Anaheim
PICK: Anaheim

he Ducks have looked as bad as any team in the league through the first week of the season. Look for a meeting with a familiar foe in their home opener to provide the spark needed to finally get on track.

I'll grab the half-puck in regulation time with the Ducks in this one, as we're only being asked to lay a small amount of chalk to do so. Keep in mind, this has been a tightly-contested series, with six of the last eight meetings having been decided by a single goal, and four of those needed OT or a shootout.

The Canucks have split their first two games, both on home ice, but haven't exactly looked dominant in doing so. Their lone victory came against the Florida Panthers, a team that should rank near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this season.

It's worth noting that Vancouver has been outshot in each of its first two games by a combined 74-59 margin.

The Ducks appeared to hit rock bottom on Monday, dropping a 5-1 decision in St. Louis while being outshot 53-14. Tonight's game represents the start of a key three-game homestand, and I'm confident we'll see a much more focused effort.

Note that the Ducks cashed in each of their final four opportunities as a home underdog priced between +110 and +150 last season.

You would have to go back to December of 2007 to find the last time the Canucks won a game in regulation time here in Anaheim. Since the, they've gone 2-3, with both of those victories coming by way of shootout. Look for another tight one tonight, but the possibility of extra time doesn't concern us. Take Anaheim +0.5 goals (-125) regulation time.

LT Profits

Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadians
Play: Canadiens -130

The 1-1 Montreal Canadiens open up their home season at Bell Centre tonight coming off of a nice road win at Pittsburgh on Saturday, and we look for them to make their home opener a winning one vs. the 1-0 Tampa Bay Lightning.

The bookmakers have installed Montreal as -130 favorites on the betting line for this contest..

After opening up their season with a 3-2 loss in Toronto, the Canadiens impressively rallied late in their 3-2 victory in enemy territory at Pittsburgh, tying the score with just 2:12 left in regulation and then netting the game winner just 24 seconds later, as Scott Gomez lit the lamp with 1:38 remaining.

The comeback would not have been possible if not for the goaltending of Carey Price, who faced 38 Penguin shots while stopping 36 of them. Over the first two games at least, Price is making the Habs’ controversial decision to trade away playoff hero Jaroslav Halak and returning the starting reins to Price look like a good one, as he currently has a .919 save percentage.

The Lighting opened with a 5-3 win vs. the defenseless Atlanta Thrashers, but that game was at home and this contest does not figure to be nearly as wide open. It is unclear who will be in net for Tampa Bay here, as while it has been announced that both Mike Smith and Dan Ellis will get a start in the back-to-back games tonight and tomorrow, the order of the starts is still pending.

Trips to Montreal are homecomings for Lightning star Vincent Lecavalier, and while he personally has four goals and eight assists in his last 10 games vs. his hometown team, the entire Lightning squad has not been quite as successful against them. The Canadiens won 5-3 on the Lightning’s last trip north of the border back in March, and Tampa Bay has been a terrible road team in general in recent years, going just 26-69 in their last 95 games away from home.

Look for those road woes to continue and for Price to start winning over the Montreal crowd, as his first two games on the road may quiet the home boos of the many fans that were partial to Halak.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +1.15 over MONTREAL

A management overhaul was the best thing to happen to the Lightning in the past three years. They brought in hockey icon Steve Yzerman as the GM and Yzerman in turn brought a new style to the on-ice play with the hiring of Guy Boucher as the club's head coach. The Lightning opened the year with an impressive 5-3 win over a tough Thrashers squad and this will only be its second game of the season. In its first game, the Bolts jumped out to a 4-0 lead and spent much of the first period in the Thrashers zone. They looked extremely sharp and things are only going to bet better from here. There are no more trade rumors surrounding Vincent LeCavalier, Martin St. Louis was signed to a four-year deal and Steve Stamkos continued where he left off a last season with two goals in the opener. TB also picked up Simon Gagne, another offensive threat to give the Lightning plenty of firepower. The Habs will play its home opener here and that means a lot more pressure on Carey Price. Price is going to have to win over the fans because right now he’s the most hated player in Montreal and it won’t take much for the fans to turn on him again. The Canadiens are 1-1 after opening the year with a loss in Toronto and following that up with an unlikely win in Pittsburgh, when they scored two very late goals. Once again, the Habs are offensively challenged and just like last year and its first win this year, they’re going to have to rely on goaltending to win games. Seldom are they going to outplay anyone and thus, they’re a big risk as a favorite. The equation here is a rather simple one. When Montreal is favored, play the dog because therein lies all the value. Play: Tampa Bay +1.15 (Risking 2 units).