SPORTS ADVISORS
NLCS
L.A. Dodgers (4-3) at Philadelphia (6-2)
Now just one victory away from a return trip to the World Series, the Phillies give the ball to last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.46 ERA) in Game 5 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park. With their season on the line, the Dodgers turn to Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46).
With the Phillies trailing 4-3 and down to their last out in Game 4 on Monday, Jimmy Rollins ripped a two-run double off L.A. closer Jonathan Broxton to give Philadelphia a stunning 5-4 victory. Tonight, the defending world champs will attempt to knock the Dodgers out of the NLCS in five games for the second consecutive season.
The Dodgers are still 6-3 in their last nine games and are on additional positive surges of 5-2 as an underdog and 40-18 after a loss, but they’re 1-6 in their last seven on the highway, 3-7 in their last 10 against the N.L. East and 3-8 in their last 11 on Wednesday. Also, Joe Torre’s team has dropped seven of nine NLCS games the last two years, all to the Phillies, going 0-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are 17-5 in their last 22 playoff contests, including 9-2 in the last 11 dating to last year’s run to the World Series title. They’ve also won 10 of 11 at home in the postseason the last two Octobers. Charlie Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 overall, 35-15 at home (33-12 as a home chalk), 10-1 as a playoff favorite, 13-3 against the N.L. West and 8-2 on Wednesday.
Going back to last August and including the playoffs, Philadelphia has won 14 of 20 against L.A. (9-2 at Citizens Bank Park). Also, dating back several seasons, Los Angeles is just 10-25 in its last 35 games in Philly. In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Padilla has been brilliant in his first two playoff starts. First, he scattered four hits and a walk in seven scoreless innings of a 5-1 win at St. Louis in the deciding Game 3 of the NLDS. Then in Game 2 of this series Friday, he allowed just one run – a Ryan Howard solo homer – on four hits in 7 1/3 innings, with Los Angeles rallying for a 2-1 victory. Padilla has walked two and struck out 10 in 14 1/3 innings in the postseason. Padilla is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA for the Dodgers, who have won four straight games behind the 28-year-old and are 8-1 in his nine starts since he was acquired from Texas in late August.
The Dodgers are also unbeaten in Padilla’s five road starts with the team, with the former Phillie going 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA. Prior to Friday, Padilla’s only other previous start against his ex-team came with Texas last June, and he gave up seven runs in six innings of an 8-6 loss. Padilla went 10-11 with a 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts at Citizens Bank Park when he pitched for Philadelphia from 2000-2005.
Hamels gave up four runs in just 5 1/3 innings in Game 1 in Los Angeles on Thursday, but the Phillies’ offense bailed him out in an 8-6 victory, snapping a four-game losing streak behind the left-hander. Hamels has gone five straight starts without a quality performance, giving up a total of 21 runs (all earned) in 27 innings during that stretch (7.00 ERA).
After going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts last year – winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs – Hamels is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two starts this year, including a 5-4 home loss to Colorado in the divisional round. With that defeat, Hamels is 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts at Citizens Bank this season.
Prior to Game 2, Hamels had faced the Dodgers six times in his career, allowing two runs or less in all six games while posting a 1.64 ERA. He pitched seven innings five times and threw a complete-game in the other contest. The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels’ last six starts versus Los Angeles (2-1 at home).
As a team, Los Angeles sports “over” runs of 11-4 on the road, 8-3 in road playoff games, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 12-4 versus winning teams, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 after an off day, but the under is 9-1-2 in its last 12 on Wednesday. Also, the Phillies carry “over” streaks of 18-5-1 overall (6-1 last seven in the playoffs, all against N.L. West competition), 7-2-1 at home, 12-3-1 against right-handed starters, 13-2-1 as a favorite and 3-1-1 with Hamels on the hill.
Finally, the over is 6-3 in the nine postseason meetings between the squads the last two Octobers (3-1 in Philadelphia). Going back to the regular season, the over is 4-1 in the last five battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Tulsa (4-2, 3-1-1 ATS) at UTEP (2-4 SU and ATS)
Tulsa looks to bounce back from a tough non-conference loss to fifth-ranked Boise State when it travels to El Paso, Texas, for a Conference USA battle with the Miners at the Sun Bowl.
The Golden Hurricane jumped on Boise State quickly a week ago tonight and led 14-8 after the first quarter, then gave up the next 20 points and couldn’t recover in a 28-21 loss, though they did cover as a nine-point home underdog. Tulsa managed just 295 yards of offense while giving up 380, and it got out-rushed 193-88 in seeing a two-game winning streak halted. The Hurricane’s two losses this year came to teams ranked fifth and 12th (45-0 loss at Oklahoma).
UTEP has been idle since falling 35-20 at Memphis as a 1½-point road favorite on Oct. 10, failing to capitalize on the momentum gained after a stunning 58-41 home upset of then-No. 12 Houston on Oct. 3. Against Memphis, the Miners rolled up 442 total yards, but gave up 486, including 270 on the ground, and they committed three turnovers in falling to 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
The home team has won five in a row (3-2 ATS) and seven of eight (5-3 ATS) in this rivalry. Last year, Tulsa rallied from a 28-21 deficit and destroyed UTEP 77-35 as a 20½-point home favorite, finishing with a whopping 791-338 edge in total offense (321-32 rushing). It was the most yards gained in a Division I-A game last year. The Hurricane are 5-2 ATS in the last seven battles with the Miners overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to El Paso.
Prior to last year’s rout, the underdog had cashed in four straight meetings, with those four games decided by a total of 16 points.
UTEP is surrendering an average of 46.7 points and 596 yards per game in its last three contests, while the Golden Hurricane are surrendering just 13.7 points and 270.7 yards in their last three.
The Golden Hurricane are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games, but otherwise are on pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 as a favorite and 4-1 after a SU loss. UTEP has cashed in four straight games as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but otherwise the Miners are in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall, 3-7 at home, 3-11 on artificial turf and 2-5 after a bye week.
Tulsa has stayed under the total in seven straight lined games and is on further “under” streaks of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in Conference USA action, 5-0 as a favorite, 10-3-1 in October and 5-2 as a road favorite. Conversely, UTEP is on “over” streaks of 5-2 in conference play, 5-2 after a bye and 8-2 as an underdog. Finally, five of the last six clashes in this rivalry have topped the posted total, including each of the last three at the Sun Bowl.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
DUNKEL INDEX
Tulsa at UTEP
The Golden Hurricanes look to take advantage of a UTEP team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games. Tulsa is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Hurricanes favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-7)
Game 301-302: Tulsa at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 97.039; UTEP 87.658
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-7); Under
MLB
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to close out the series and build on their 5-1 record in Cole Hamels' last 6 starts against the Dodgers. Philadelphia is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135)
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.367; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.380
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Over
NHL
Buffalo at Florida
The Sabres look to take advantage of a Florida team that is coming off a win over Philadelphia, but is just 4-10 in its last 14 games following a victory. Buffalo is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-120)
Game 1-2: Nashville at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 9.779; Boston 11.289
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-220); Over
Game 3-4: Carolina at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.534; NY Islanders 10.832
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+130); Over
Game 5-6: Buffalo at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.472; Florida 11.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-120); Under
Game 7-8: Colorado at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.098; Minnesota 11.609
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 9-10: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.048; Chicago 11.714
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+155); Under
Game 11-12: Dallas at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.544; Anaheim 11.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Either way the Dodgers are going home tonight. In a game that very few people think they can actually win,lets take a look at all the pertinent numbers. This series has an odd sequence to it. The Phillies are up 3-1 and have won games one,three and four and lost game 2. Home teams in this round in this sequence vs an opponent with the home field advantage are just 1-1 in Game five. Looking at the pitching match up the Phils have Hamels going tonight. He clearly is not the same pitcher he was last year at this time. In his last start in this series he allowed 4 runs in 5+ innings and was unusually hittable. The Dodgers counter with veteran V.Padilla. In his last start in this series he was solid allowing just a run in 7 innings. Padilla is 10-1 as an underdog this year,11-2 on the road and has a 3.37 era which is better than Hamels home era of 3.93. Over his last 3 starts he has a 0.93 era,compared to 7.43 for Hamels. The Dodgers are 11-3 as a road dog in this range this year and 46-23 off a loss.
JIM FEIST
NASHVILLE PREDATORS / BOSTON BRUINS
TAKE UNDER
Boston's offense has struggled of late, scoring 3, 3 and 1 goal (2 losses). Boston Bruins winger Milan Lucic will miss four to six weeks after he had surgery to repair his injured right index finger. The third-year forward registered just three assists and a plus-2 rating in six games for the Bruins. "He's one of those players that has usually a pretty big impact on the game when he's on top of it," coach Claude Julien said. "I think we saw him more like that player we want him to be in Dallas." The Bruins catch a break, though, facing the worst offensive team in the NHL. Nashville has just 10 goals in 6 games! Play the Predators/Bruins Under the total.
Jr Tips
Dodgers at Phillies
The Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NL championship series at two games apiece but Jimmy Rollins had a clutch hit that has them on the verge of clinching their second straight pennant as the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies look to earn a trip back to the World Series tonight in Game 5 against the Dodgers tonight in Philadelphia. Los Angeles needs to win three straight games to make the World Series and if they win one game, they go home. For there to be a Game 6 at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Los Angeles needs to get past Cole Hamels, who defeated the Dodgers in last season's NLCS clincher and earned the win in Thursday's series opener, but he wasn't at his best allowing four runs and eight hits including two homers in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-6 victory. Hamels has already yielded eight runs in 10 1/3 innings in two postseason starts this season which is one more run than he gave up in 35 innings over five starts last fall although Hamels is 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in seven career starts against Los Angeles, including three in the playoffs. Ryan Howard has been on fire for the Phillies as the first baseman hit a two-run double Monday that gave him eight straight postseason games with at least one RBI, tying Lou Gehrig's major league record set in the 1928 and 1932 World Series. Howard is 5 for 13 (.385) with two home runs, eight RBIs and a .529 on-base percentage in this series and has driven in 14 runs this postseason. He has now reached the bases in 7 straight playoff games and his solo homer in Game 2 was the only run the Phillies scored off Vicente Padilla, who takes the ball again for the Dodgers in Game 5 of a 2-1 LA Dodger win. Padilla allowed Howard's homer and three other hits in 7 1/3 innings, but didn't get the decision. Padilla hasn't lost since signing with the Dodgers on Aug. 19th after being released by Texas.The right-hander gave up four hits in seven shutout innings of a 5-1 NLDS-clinching win over St. Louis, and went 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven regular-season starts for Los Angeles as the Dodgers have won eight of Padilla's nine starts. The Dodgers, who finished fourth in the NL with 780 runs in the regular season, have tallied 12 in this series while leaving 25 men on base and going 6 for 30 with runners in scoring position. Manny Ramirez homered off Hamels in Game 1, but hasn't had much success otherwise, going 4 for 16 with two RBIs and no walks in the series.Hammels has not been sharp in the post season although he had his best stuff in Game 1. In a do or die game, the Dodgers can score enough runs against Hammels to get to that poorest Philadelphia bulpen while Padilla has been nothing but consistent since he has become a Dodger which is why Torre is giving him the start over the youngster tonight.
TAKE LA DODGERS +130
HENTAI SPORTS
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction : Los Angeles Dodgers
In a game that very few people think they can actually win,lets take a look at all the pertinent numbers. This series has an odd sequence to it. The Phillies are up 3-1 and have won games one,three and four and lost game 2. Home teams in this round in this sequence vs an opponent with the home field advantage are just 1-1 in Game five.Looking at the pitching match up the Phils have Hamels going tonight. He clearly is not the same pitcher he was last year at this time. In his last start in this series he allowed 4 runs in 5+ innings and was unusually hittable. The Dodgers counter with veteran V.Padilla. In his last start in this series he was solid allowing just a run in 7 innings. Padilla is 10-1 as an underdog this year,11-2 on the road and has a 3.37 era which is better than Hamels home era of 3.93. Over his last 3 starts he has a 0.93 era,compared to 7.43 for Hamels. The Dodgers are 11-3 as a road dog in this range this year and 46-23 off a loss.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Los Angeles at PHILADELPHIA
The runs in this NLCS have been adding up, as the last pair of games played in the City of Brotherly Love have gone OVER the posted total, as have 3 of the 4 overall games played in this series.
Have to look for another HIGH-SCORING game in tonight's Game 5, as Vincente Padilla, and Cole Hamels go at it.
Padilla looked strong in LA's Game 2 win, working 7 innings of 1 run ball, but we have the feeling that on the road in a quick second look, Padilla won't fare as well this evening.
Likewise, Cole Hamels did not fool the Dodgers in his Game 1 start, as he allowed 4 runs in his 5 innings of work, and was lucky to escape with the win.
Philadelphia has bee OVER the total in 5 of their last 6 this postseason, and we like this one to head OVER as well.
Play the HIGH in Game 5.
1♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Los Angeles at PHILADELPHIA
Wednesday night action from the Bank, and I expect the scoreboard operator to be a tad busy in Game Five.
I know that Padilla baffled the Phillies in the matinee game in Los Angeles, but this game is under the lights on the road, and I have never thought too highly of Vincente Padilla anyway. I don't see him duplicating his Game Two line at all.
Likewise, I am not sure which Cole Hamels is going to show up, as Hamels did give up 4 runs in 5 innings of work in his Game One victory.
Both games in Philadelphia have played OVER the total, and 3 of the 4 overall in this series have gone HIGH. In fact, the Phils have now been OVER in 5 of their last 6 postseason games.
Expect that Liberty Bell to be ringing loud from all of the runs that will be adding up tonight.
G-Man on the OVER in Game 5.
3♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at PHILADELPHIA -140
I'm 7-3-1 with my last 11 FREE selections and today I've got an easy winner on the diamond as I go with the Phillies to wrap up their NLCS and get the Game 5 wiin over the Dodgers in Philadelphia.
This is a tough spot for the Dodgers with too many negative factors at work for them. They are wrapping up a four-day stay in Philadelphia, but they got blown out on Sunday and then lost a heart-breaker on Monday. Now they have to face last year’s Phillies' postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.46 ERA)? Too many things working against them and the play is definitely Philadelphia.
The Dodgers got destroyed on Sunday, came back and jumped on the Phillies on Monday and led 4-3 with two outs in the ninth and a 1-1 count when Jimmy Rollins crushed a two-run double and put the Phillies ahead 3-1 in the series and in a position to end this at home today.
Newly acquired Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46) is on the mound tonight for the Dodgers after performing wonderfully in his first two playoff starts, he’s allowed one run in 14.1 innings of postseason action, beating the Cardinals in the deciding Game 3 and then beating the Phillies in Game 2, allowing one run on four hits.
Los Angeles is on negative slides of 1-6 on the road, 3-7 against the N.L. East and 2-8 on Wednesdays.
Hamels allowed four runs in 5.1 innings of Game 1 on Thursday but his offense helped him to an 8-6 victory. While he hasn’t shown the domination of last postseason, Hamels has always been a “Dodger killer” and prior to that he had faced the Dodgers six times in his career and allowed two runs or less in all six with a 1.64 ERA.
Against the Dodgers, the Phillies are on runs of 14 of 20, including 9-2 at Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are just 10-25 in its last 35 games in Philly. This is looking eerily like last year’s series when the Phillies won in five games. This year it could be just that easy as well. Play Philadelphia in this one!
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Dodgers +135 at PHILADELPHIA
It took some late runs by the Yankees, but the over came in Tuesday, just as I said it would in Game 4 of the ALCS. That gives me three straight wins on my complimentary selections, and six victories in my last eight!
I'm going to stay on the diamond today as I continue my winning ways, taking the underdog Dodgers to keep their World Series hopes alive for at least one more day.
Right-hander Vicente Padilla has been a savior since he was acquired by Los Angeles in August after Texas released him. He went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in eight games (seven starts) with the Dodgers in the regular season, and has pitched even better in the playoffs.
Padilla is 1-0 with a 0.63 ERA in two postseason starts, and allowed just one run and four hits in 7 1/3 innings Friday, gaining a no-decision in Los Angeles' 2-1 victory in Game 2 against Philadelphia.
Phillies starter Cole Hamels has been hammered in two playoff starts after a subpar regular season. The left-hander was the star of Philly's World Series run last season, but he is 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA in the postseason this year, allowing eight runs and 15 hits in 10 1/3 innings.
The Dodgers pounded Hamels for four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings Thursday in Game 1 of the NLCS, but he managed to get the win in the Phillies' 8-6 victory.
With Los Angeles' season hanging in the balance, I expect manager Joe Torre to do whatever it takes to get a victory today. Take the Dodgers to send the series back to L.A.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
VEGAS ESPERTS
Tulsa at UTEP
The fact that the Golden Hurricane have gone Under in all five lined games thus far is giving us some value with the total in a series that has averaged 82 PPG the last six meetings, including 103.5 the last two. UTEP is allowing nearly 35 PPG this season. They have also gone Over in 12 of their previous 16 conference affairs. Expect another shootout in Conference USA tonight.
LT Profits
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies has been a disappointment this season, but all would be forgiven if he comes up big tonight while Vicente Padilla has been in raging form for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so look for a pitching duel here.
Hamels is the reining World Series MVP, but he had a losing record during the regular season, and he has allowed four runs on each of his two playoff starts this year. However, Hamels does have a 3.92 ERA and an excellent 1.13 WHIP when pitching here at home, and the Dodgers are batting a modest .258 as a team on the road vs. left-handed pitching this season. Look for Hamels to show marked improvement over his Game 1 start tonight with this game at Citizens Park.
Padilla has proven to be a shrewd acquisition by the Dodgers, as he is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in a Dodger uniform, combing regular season and playoffs. He held these Phillies to one run and four hits in 7.1 innings in the 2-1 Dodgers victory in Game 2, following up his first playoff appearance where he allowed four hits in seen scoreless innings vs. the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.
If we include his final regular season start, Padilla has surrendered a total of two runs and 14 baserunners with 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings over his last three starts. If he maintains that form here, and we see no reason why he should not, look for a safe Under tonight.
Pick: Dodgers/Phillies Under 8.5
BIG AL
Los Angeles at Philadelphia
It's do or die for the Dodgers as they find themselves down three games to one after the devastating loss on Monday night. The bad news is that if they lose tonight, their season is over. The good news is that one more win will send them back to Los Angeles and they won't have to play another game here in Phily the rest of the season. The Dodgers beat up pretty well on lefthander Cole Hamels in game one of this series as did the Rockies when they faced him in their series and there has been no shortage of runs in either of those games as a total of 23 runs have been scored in Hamels two post-season starts of 2009. That's more runs than were scored in the entire three-game NLDS between the Dodgers and Cardinals. There's quite a big difference between Dodger Stadium and Citizens Bank Ballpark as the former is the third stingiest park in the Majors (only Petco and Progressive were more pitcher-friendly in 2009) while Philadelphia's home is in the top half of the most hitter-friendly parks. There have been a total of only seven games going over the total so far in the entire 2009 post- season (out of a total of 20 games played heading into Tuesday), and five of those seven have been games involving the Phillies.
PLAY OVER
Tom Freese
Carolina at NY Islanders
Carolina is 10-4-2 UNDER their last 16 road games and they are 3-0-1 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days of rest. The Hurricanes are 7-3-3 UNDER vs. an opponent who scored 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 4-0 UNDER vs. Atlantic Division teams. The Islanders are 9-3-1 UNDER off a loss by 3 or more goals and they are 3-1-1 OVER off a loss by 3 or more goals. New York is 11-4-1 UNDER their last at home vs. the Hurricanes. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +$125
The Dodgers are facing elimination tonight and there is nobody better for them to have on the mound than Vicente Padilla. Padilla is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA for the Dodgers, who are 8-1 in his nine starts since he was acquired from the Texas Rangers in late August. Padilla has been lights out in his first two playoff starts. He scattered four hits and a walk in seven scoreless innings in a 5-1 win at St. Louis in the deciding Game 3 of the NLDS. On Friday, he allowed just one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings as Los Angeles rallied for a 2-1 victory. I don't mind fading Cole Hamels here either. Hamels gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings in Game 1 on Thursday, but was bailed out by the Philadelphia offense in an 8-6 slugfest. Play on LA.