Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 26

VEGAS EXPERTS

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

Four of the five World Series games thus far have gone Under the total and we expect a similar result this evening for Game 6. The Under is 20-5 in road night starts made by Rangers hurler Colby Lewis. He'll be opposed by Jaime Garcia for the Cardinals, and Garcia did not allow a single run over 7 IP in Game 2 despite his team eventually losing that game. Texas is 50-27 on the road vs. southpaws the L3 seasons and 12-3 Under on the road off a win by 2 runs or less. All three of Lewis' playoff starts have seen the Under cash + the weather is supposed to be chilly again, which led to only six total runs getting scored the first 17 innings of this series.

Play on: Under

Ray Monohan

Texas Rangers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Texas Rangers

The 2011 World Series is about as evenly-matched as a World Series could ever be. These two teams have to tee it up again in St. Louis in the sixth, and what could be deciding, game of this series. Fans in St. Louis and Texas are being treated to one of the most competitive World Series in a very long time. LaRussa has been adjusting his batting order to accommodate the different pitching changes made by Texas, but it is all very difficult to keep up with. Colby Lewis is scheduled to take the mound for game six of the 2011 World Series for the Texas Rangers. Lewis is 1-0 in his career in the World Series with a 1.88 ERA. Lewis pitched six and two-thirds scoreless innings in game two before being pulled. He did not get a decision in that game, but he did give the Rangers a chance to win. Judging by the back and forth nature of this series, each team could use all of the advantages it can get. Early in the series, it looked like St. Louis had the upper hand because Tony LaRussa was matching up his pitchers with the Texas batting order perfectly. But the pitching chess game played by LaRussa has been negated by the offensive chess game being played by Texas skipper Ron Washington. In game six, Colby Lewis is definitely a weapon for the Rangers that will help Texas to stay competitive in this game.

David Chan

Flyers @ Canadiens
PICK: Over 5.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

The 5-2-1 Philadelphia Flyers storm into Montreal to take on the 1-5-2 Canadiens.

So can the Habs break out of their worst start to a season in over 70 years with a victory tonight?

“Nobody likes losing,” said Erik Cole recently. “We’re tired of it. We need to just find a way to get over the hump.”

This is in fact Montreal's worst home start in its entire history.

It is true that the Canadiens have scored just one or no goal in five games this year, but take note, its not been from a lack of trying!

The Habs had 41-shots on Monday, which was the third time in five games that they've had at least that many.

“We’re getting the shots, but it just seems that it’s never enough,” defenseman Josh Gorges said. “When you look at the chances we had, I can’t believe the puck didn’t go in. One of these games it will have to fall for us. But until it happens, we have to find a way and do some things differently.”

Note that Montreal goaltender Carey Price is 0-3-0 with a 4.07 GAA in his last three vs. Philadelphia; Flyers netminder Ilya Bryzgalov is 0-2-1 with a 3.33 GAA lifetime vs. the Canadiens.

It's just a matter of time before pucks start going in the net with that amount of shots; I think you'll agree with me that all signs point to a high-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers were one of the top teams in the East last season, but flamed out in the playoffs because of bad goaltending. They have improved their defense and the offense is still dynamite, 3rd in goals per game (3.4) and 4th on the power play. The Flyers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Last place Montreal doesn't scare anyone, riding a 6-game skid and 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. And the Flyers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Play the Flyers!

Steve Janus

Rangers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

The total has went UNDER in four of the five games up to this point, and I believe we are in for another low scoring affair in game 5. The total went UNDER in both games in St Louis, with neither game totaling more than 5 runs.The ball simply doesn't fly that well at this time of the year in the Midwest, which takes away a lot of the home run potential that both of these teams have to offer.

This game will feature a Game 2 rematch between starting pitchers Jamie Garcia and Colby Lewis. The two combined to allow just 1 ER on seven hits. Lewis has a 3.36 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 20 road starts this season, and seems to really bring his best stuff to the mound in the postseason. Garcia has been hit or miss, but he has been on his game at home, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.096 WHIP.

With just two games left to decide who will be the 2011 World Series Champions, the pressure grows larger and larger on the hitters to come up with a big at-bat. Combine that pressure with each teams best starting pitchers, and that is why so many playoff games tend to be low scoring.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 12-4-1 in Cardinals last 17 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Make the smart play and BET THE UNDER!

EZWINNERS

Pittsburgh Panthers -10

This line does seem to be a bit high, but I believe for good reason. UCONN has not scored an offensive touchdown in their last two games and the Huskies rank 103rd in the nation in total offense. I look for a breakout game by the Panthers who should come up with a big home win. Lay the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Connecticut Under 41: This Panthers offense has struggled of late as they have put up 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Their passing game is horrible at 98th in the country (183 ypg). Tino Sinseri has hit 62% of his passes, but for just 6.08 ypa and he has 5 TD's to 7 INT's. Not Good numbers at all. Now he will be facing the 99th ranked passing defense of the Huskies, but I just don't feel that he has the skills to take advantage. The Panther's do have rthe nation's second leading rusher in Ray Graham and with the problems they have at QB, I expect them to use him alot tonight. It won't be easy as the UConn defense is 9th in the nation vs the run. allowing just 89 ypg. Overall this struggling pitt offense will be taking on the 39th ranked defense overall (351.1 ypg) and 29th ranked scoring defense (20.7). The Pitt defense is better than average, allowing 370 ypg (55th) and 24 ppg (46th), but they will be facing a UConn offense that has been well below average this year. The Huskie offense comes in 104th overall (320 ypg) and 94th in scoring at 22.3 ppg. They also rank 87th in passing (201 ypg) and 94th in rushing (128 ypg), so they don't do either well. Both of these teams have very conservative gameplans, based on running the ball and defense and I do not see that changing tonight. This will be a good old Big East slugfest that will see about 34 points put on the board. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Under in any game with a total of 42 or less and both teams allow 330 to 390 ypg. This play has gone 50-18 since 1992.

2 UNIT PLAY

UConn +10 Over PITTSBURGH: With their conservative gameplan, the Panthers are not a blow you out kinda team. They did have an easy game vs the Bulls, but they also did struggle in beating Maine and Buffalo as they outgained those two teams by 17 combined yards. This team does not go for the jugular when they have you down. That S. Fla game was vs a team that does take chances on offense and that set them up with some easy scores, but UConn is not that kind of offense. They are conservative just like Pitt, so don't expect the panther to be set up with easy scores here. The Huskies do have a slight defense edge overall and they are getting DD, and I'll take them to cover in what should be a tight low scoring big East game.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +102 over CALGARY

The Avalanche are young, confident and exciting. How much difference does a year make? The Avalanche were 5-17-1 on the road after Christmas last season. They can win their seventh consecutive road game here. They’ve yet to win at home in two tries but they’ve won all six of their games on the road including wins in both Boston and Chicago. The Calgary Flames are old, fragile and about as exciting as a quilt festival. The Flames have won two games, one against the Canadiens in which they were badly oputplayed and the other against the Oilers in a game they scored two goals late in the third to win it. Calgary has scored two goals or less in four straight games and as far as them being the chalk, they offer up absolutely nothing. It’s a long schedule and there are going to be upsets almost daily but in no way can this one be considered an upset. We get the better team in a much better frame of mind than their opposition and when you throw in the small take-back it’s becomes a must play. Play: Colorado +102 (Risking 2 units).

Pass MLB

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Rangers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

These two have played to the under in four of five games this series, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. When Garcia and Lewis faced off in Game 2, we only saw a total of 3 runs scored. Low-scoring games in St. Louis have been common of late. In fact, the Cards have combined with their opponents to score 7 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 and 14 of their last 20 home games. The under is 7-1 in the Rangers' last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 7-1 in their last 8 World Series games. It's also 6-0 in Lewis' last 6 starts versus NL clubs. The under is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last 6 World Series games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Also, St. Louis is 11-2 under all-time under manager La Russa in a playoff game when facing elimination. We've only seen an average of 5.5 runs scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

John Ryan

Connecticut at Pittsburgh Panthers M
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a rare prime time game with two sub-.500 teams doing battle. Connecticut is coming off a BYE week and has had two full weeks to prepare for Pittsburgh and the nation?s number two rusher in Ray Graham. Pittsburgh has not played since their horrid loss to Utah losing 26-14 and were installed as six point favorites. Losers of four of the last five Pittsburgh needs to right the ship if they are to get to a bowl game this season. The Pittsburgh Panthers rank 98th in the FBS gaining 184.1 passing yards per game, 59th gaining 158.0 rushing yards per game, and 75th scoring 25.3 points per game. Their scoring defense ranks 46th allowing 24.0 points per game. The Connecticut Huskies rank 88th in the FBS gaining 200.6 passing yards per game, 94th gaining 119.7 rushing yards per game, and 95th scoring 22.3 points per game. Their scoring defense ranks 29th allowing 20.7 points per game. I strongly believe that the Panthers power running game will wear down an under sized Connecticut defensive front. The Huskies will need to bring safety help for run support and this then opens up high percentage pass plays using play action. Pittsburgh is led by Junior quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has completed 122-of-198 pass attempts for 61.6% completions, 1,204 yards, five touch downs, and seven interceptions. At 6-2 and 215 pounds he has the size to survey the field and if needed run the ball against the Connecticut defense. He has been sacked 32 times this season in large part because he holds onto the ball far too long. He has averaged just 6.08 passing yards per attempt on the season. Part of this below average statistic is attributed to trying to force passes into tight spots and taking too many safety valve options. However, ball control pass plays will work well against Connecticut, who will need to bring safety help to stop running back Ray Graham. Graham has gained 939 rushing yards on 162 attempts for a 5.8 yards-per-rush average. Even though Connecticut appears to have a solid rushing defense based on game averages, they have not faced anything like this Pittsburgh offensive line and a powerful running back like Graham. The Connecticut rushing defense was shredded by South Florida two weeks ago for 175 yards on 36 carries and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average. Before that they held West Virginia to 72 rushing yards on 29 carries for a 2.50 yards-per-rush average. Now, that would be impressive, but West Virginia is a passport offensive team that ranks fifth in the FBS gaining 374.4 passing yards per game. The Connecticut secondary was dominated by West Virginia allowing 469 passing yards in that 43-16 loss. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by 11 or more points. I also like playing the under in this game too. Supporting this graded play for the under is a system that has produced a record of 50-18 making 30.2 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play under with all teams where the total is 42 or less in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 330 to 390 yards per game. Connecticut head coach Pasqualoni has not done well in road trips dressed as a dog. He has posted a poor 8-22 ATS record losing 16.2 units per one unit wagered as a road dog in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Pittsburgh and the UNDER each for 5* units plays.

David Banks

Connecticut / Pittsburgh Under

Big East college pigskin action hogs the Wednesday night spotlight on ESPN when the UCONN Huskies (3-4, 2-5 ATS) and Pittsburgh Panthers (3-4, 2-5 ATS) go at it from Heinz Field at 8:00 ET in Week 9.

UCONN will look to secure its first Big East road win on Wednesday night. To date, the Huskies stand 1-2 SU & ATS away from Storrs falling to Vanderbilt by three as 1.5-point underdogs and West Virginia by 27 as 20-point underdogs. The lone win came in the form of a 17-3 win over the Buffalo Bulls as eight-point chalk. Connecticut used to pound its opponents into a bloody pulp with the ground attack, but that’s far from been the case in the first year of the Pasqualoni regime, as the Huskies check in with the 94th ranked rushing attack that’s averaged just 119.7 YPG. The stop unit has been the Huskies strong suit led by the 9th ranked rushing defense that’s allowed an average of just 89 YPG. Its success in limiting PITT RB Ray Graham will ultimately decide if it can stay within the double-digit spread.

Pittsburgh will have had 11 days to prepare for this Wednesday night tussle. Last we saw head coach Todd Graham’s kids on the gridiron, they lost at home to the Utah Utes by a 26-14 final count. The loss marked the second straight week that PITT lost outright as favorites. The Panthers most impressive win of the 2011 season did however come during the week in a Thursday night clash with South Florida whom they destroyed 44-17 as three-point home underdogs. QB Tino Sunseri will play a large role in this one due to the Huskies being so adept at stopping the run. If he’s not able to form a rhythm with his receiving corps, the Panthers won’t have any shot of covering the lofty number.

These programs have opposed one another seven times since UCONN joined the Big East back in 2004. The Huskies hold a 4-3 SU advantage in those contests, as well as the pointspread advantage (5-2 ATS). The Huskies scored a 30-28 win over Pittsburgh at home last season. Connecticut has covered each of the L/9 times it went off the board an underdog of 3.5-10 points, but is just 2-5 ATS its L/7 as a road pup. PITT has failed to cover as favorites each of the four times it was asked to do so this season, but also checks in an impressive 13-5 ATS its L/18 Big East battles. The ‘under’ is 8-3 the L/11 times the Huskies took the field dogged as well as 5-1 the L/6 times the Panthers were favored.

Dave Price

1 Unit Rangers/Cardinals Under 7.5

The Under has been the play this series. These two have finished below the total in 4 of the 5 games and we didn't see more than 6 total runs scored in any of those 4. We didn't see more than 5 runs scored in the two in St. Louis. This comes as no surprise considering the Cards (and their opponent) have scored more than 7 total runs just twice in the last 10 games at Busch Stadium. We'll take the Under tonight.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Connecticut/Pittsburgh OVER 41.5

With this total reflecting the poor offensive performances these teams had in their last game, the value lies with the over. The Over is 7-2 in the Huskies' last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and 6-2 in the Panthers' last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. We saw 58 total points scored in last year's matchup, and we have seen at least 44 total points scored in each of the last 5 meetings between these two schools. We'll take the Over tonight.