Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 6,2010

SPORTS WAGERS

Baseball Playoff Series

Well, of the four dogs in this series, we really don’t envision any of them advancing with perhaps the exception of Texas but there’s really not much value on them at +1.32.

The Twinkies open at home and the Yanks are always overpriced but the Twins are not a playoff team and usually get swept by the Yanks. In order for the Twins to win this series they’re going to have to win both games in Minnesota and then they’re still not guaranteed anything. Minnesota completely chokes when they face the Yankees and they’re beat before they even step to the plate. How the Twins won so many games is puzzling because they’re really not that talented and it’s starting pitching is horrible.

The Phillies have chosen to maximize their SP strength by choosing the eight-day NLDS format. This allows them to start only Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels in this series and do so on normal rest. That’s a daunting task for any team and although the +2.34 take-back looks pretty sweet, does it matter how much you take-back if it does not cash?

Atlanta is +1.54 and they have a chance because runs are going to be hard to come by in this series. Both rotations are rock solid and both offenses leave plenty to be desired. The Giants were 9th in the NL in scoring runs, and 12th in the second half and Atlanta wasn’t much better down the stretch. Bobby Cox is regarded as one of the best managers in the game and it’s just sick how the media influences people. He’s not even close. He’s won one World Series with a team that made the playoffs something like 14 years in a row. He was given great teams with great starting pitching, much like Joe Torre when he was with the Yanks. You could put any manager in the game in Cox’s shoes and he’d probably have 14 playoff appearances in a row and five rings, not one. Bud Black of the Giants knows how to manage. Just watch how many times Cox makes the wrong moves. You’ll see things like a strike-em out, throw’em out double-play. He’ll leave his starters in too long, he’ll pinch hit Eric Hinske when he needs a base hit and not a homerun and Hinske will strike out. It’s time for Cox to retire because he’s a nice guy but he’s an idiot manager and it’s for that reason along with names like Rick Ankiel, Eric Hinske and Brooks Conrad that we want nothing to do with the Braves.

Ben Burns

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The price on the Phillies is a little too steep to qualify as one of my "guaranteed" selections. That said, given the Game 1 pitching matchup and venue, I feel that the line is actually quite reasonable.

Halladay gets the call and he's had yet another superb campaign. For the season, he was 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 250 2/3 innings. That includes a 12-5 mark with a 2.21 ERA here at home, with four complete games.

Not only is he coming off a great season, Halladay is a fierce competitor, one who values and understands his spot in the history books. He made one home start against the Reds this season. You may remember that one. Cincinnati's Travis Wood dominated Philadelphia's lineup, which was depleted by injuries at the time, and took a perfect game into the 9th inning. Yet, Halladay didn't blink. Rather, he tossed nine shutout innings of his own, keeping the game scoreless. The Phillies would eventually win 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.

Now much healthier and averaging 5.25 runs their last dozen home games, the Phillies figures to give Halladay at least a little run support here. Granted, Volquez pitched very well in September. However, he was shaky in two August starts and still has a mediocre 4.31 ERA in 12 starts, since returning from the elbow surgery at the All-Star Break. More importantly, a closer look reveals that he had a solid 3.23 ERA at home but an ugly 6.08

The Phillies have dominated the Reds here. They're 11-2 the last 13 times that the teams faced each other here at Philadelphia, including a perfect 6-0 the last six. With Halladay on the mound, they've got a great shot at improving on those numbers. All things considered, I feel the current line is fair. Consider laying the wood.

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UAB vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -12.5
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Central Florida relies heavily on the run and there is a good chance of rain in the forecast here. UCF is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams with a losing record, 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games, and 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. I beleive Central Florida is the much better team here and while everyone is watch the baseball playoffs on Wednesday, I'll be collecting on UCF in a blowout on ESPN Wednesday college football

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds +1.5
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Reds have one of the best offenses over the course of the season. Plus don't ignore the fact that CIN dominated PHI before three late game heroics by Philly. Halliday is one of the best pitchers in baseball but playoff experience is just as limited as the Reds starters. Volquez starts for the Reds looking like the ace that we saw before his tommy john's surgery. Also think the bullpen of PHI is not as good as CIN. This will be much closer than anyone could imagine and would not be shocked if CIN even wins this one.

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UAB @ Central Florida
PICK: Under 49FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We're going against the movement and playing the Under between the Blazers and Knights on Wednesday. First look might give an indication at an Over play, but when you look inside each of these team's most recent games, you'll see that the defenses are starting to play much better. UAB actually held Tennessee to 287 total yards on 61 plays in their most recent contest. The Vols gained just 42 yards on 27 carries, just 1.6 yards per carry, and UAB sacked Matt Simms five times. One UAB player called it the best defensive game he's seen from his team since his arrival in Birmingham. UCF allowed a grand total of just 34 combined points to South Dakota, Buffalo, and Kansas State. They gave a good NC State team all the Wolfpack could handle, before falling 28-21. UCF's defense doesn't get the credit it deserves. The Knights have held their four opponents to 264.3 total yards per game on just 4.23 per play. They're giving up just 3.19 yards per carry, and the Knights have held the opposition to 45% passing and 147 yards passing per game on just 5.76 yards per attempt. UCF already has 10 sacks, while picking off three passes. They have allowed just three passing TDs on the season. Neither team has played in 11 days which means both have worked on game plans to stop the other's offense. The Under is on a 10-2-1 run when UCF plays as a home favorite, including 7-2 to the Under as a home favorite of more than 10 points. I'm playing the Under between UAB & UCF on Wednesday night.

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RANGERS / RAYS
TAKE: UNDER
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A pair of aces on the hill in Game 1. Cliff Lee issued just 18 free passes in 28 starts this season (212.1 innings) while striking out 185 batters. Tampa Bay counters with hard throwing David Price, who has a 1.96 ERA at home. Both teams are outstanding defensively, too, so don't look for an offensive show: Play Game 1 of the Rangers/Rays Under the total.

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UAB Blazers +12.5
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The UAB Blazers have had some heartbreaking losses this season. Three of their games have been decided on the final play and only one went their way (Troy). The Blazers are 1-3 coming out of their bye week to face Central Florida, but this team has competed hard, has never given up and the Blazers have to be stoked to be playing a game in front of a national audience. UAB considers themselves as a contender in Conference USA and having take Tennessee to double overtime on the road in their last game the Blazers have plenty of confidence as they prepare to battle the Knights. The home field advantage should not phase UAB after playing at Tennessee in their last game. UCF doesn't have the best attendance record against conference opponents. When the Knights notched their first victory against a Top 25 team last season against Houston, there were plenty of empty seats and it was UCF's homecoming game. Asking UCF to win this game by such a margin is asking a lot considering that the Knights UCF haven't done anything this season other than showing some potential. Take the points.

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Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 7
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Tampa Bay starter David Price has allowed 9 runs total in his last 6 starts. The Rays are 14-3-1 UNDER their last 18 home games and they are 8-0 UNDER their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is 6-0 UNDER when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game. Texas starter Cliff Lee has allowed 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Rangers are 37-16-2 UNDER their last 58 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 10-5 in the last 15 starts made by Lee. Texas is 6-2 UNDER following a day off.

Chuck O'Brien
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Cincinnati (+185) at PHILADELPHIA (Game 1)
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For today’s complimentary selection, I'll take a shot with Cincinnati over the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS.
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All the experts have the Phillies not only waltzing to the N.L. pennant for the third straight year, but also the World Series. Easy to understand why given Philadelphia’s ridiculous starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels (not to mention the Phillies’ insane 27-8 run down the stretch). However, don’t sleep on the Reds. They’re a very scrappy ballclub, and they’ve got a red-hot pitcher on the mound in Game 1.
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Edinson Volquez, who missed the first four months of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery and serving a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, peeled off four straight quality starts in September, posting a 1.95 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, a 31-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .183 batting-average against. The Reds won three of those four contests, and they’re 9-3 when Volquez starts this season, including 4-1 on the road.
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Volquez has faced Philadelphia twice (both times in 2008), and the right-hander held Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Werth, etc., to a total of one run, seven hits and four walks while striking out 16 in 12 1/3 innings. He won both contests easily (8-0 at home; 2-0 in Philly).
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Obviously, Volquez and the Reds have their work cut out for them today facing Halladay, who went 21-10 with 2.44 ERA, including a complete-game 1-0 home win over the Reds on July 10. However, 11 days prior to that, the Reds beat Halladay 4-3 (the right-hander allowed all four runs on 13 hits in eight innings), so they have the confidence that they can beat him.
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And when you look at how these two offenses performed down the stretch, you’ll see that Cincinnati hit .280 over its final 10 games (.284 versus right-handers) while the Phillies batted just .257 in its last 10 games (.225 versus right-handers).

2♦ CINCINNATI

Joel Tyson
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Texas at TAMPA BAY
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The natural tendency in playoff baseball is to side with good pitching shutting down good hitting, and while Cliff Lee and David Price are two of the quality southpaws we have in the game today, there are a bunch of reasons I do like the over in Game One of this divisional series between the Rangers and the Rays.
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For one thing, Lee had no success against the Rays this year, losing all 3 of his starts against them while sporting an over 4 ERA in those outings.
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For another, the last 4 season series meetings between the teams all played over the posted total. In fact, 5 of the 6 this year, and 8 of the last 9 overall played between the teams have ended up landing in the over column.
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Again, no knocking Lee or Price and what they have accomplished this year, but 7 runs is a very low total for any American League game, and my feeling is one big inning from each side, or a big inning later in the game against the bullpens will topple this total.
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Go over in Game One of the Rangers-Rays series.

2♦ OVER

Karl Garrett
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N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA
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G-Man going to look for some runs in this Yankees-Twins game tonight.
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Of course both Sabathia and Liriano are more than capable of shutting it down tonight, but their closing marks in the regular season would indicate they are both vunerable to a certain extent.
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Sabathia did go 2-1 over his final 3 regular season starts, but his ERA in those games was a generous 4.79.
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As for Liriano, the southpaw was shelled over his last 3 starts, going 0-3 with an ERA over 8. Liriano did allow 12 runs in just over 13 innings of work in those 3 losses as well.
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I just get the feeling that both the Yankees and the Twins are sitting on a few crooked digit innings in Game 1, and I will play this ALDS opener to go over the posted total.

3♦ OVER

Bobby Maxwell
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N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA (+130)
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The Yankees are 9-2 against the Twins in the first round of the playoffs over the past decade, but this Minnesota team was an American League best 53-28 in their first season at Target Field. There are some pieces on this Twins’ roster that haven’t been around for the previous first-round failures. Look at Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, plus some late additions like J.J. Hardy and reliever Brian Fuentes. These are different guys and the outcome will be different in Game 1.
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On the mound for the Twins is lefty Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA). He saw the Yankees twice this season and had two strong outings, allowing a combined five runs in 13 innings, striking out 14 and walking two.
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He’ll go up against the Yankees’ southpaw C.C. Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA). Sabathia didn’t see the Twins this season, but his teams have won six straight over Minnesota, dating back to 2007 when he was with the Indians.
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Neither team did much down the stretch as both more or less cruised into the playoffs. The Yankees are just 4-9 in their last 13 playoff road games, 6-13 in series openers, 3-8 against winning teams and 1-6 in divisional playoff roadies. They have also gone 0-9 in their last nine games against a southpaw.
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Minnesota is on surges of 10-4 at home against winning teams, 5-1 when Liriano gets five days of rest, 6-2 when he pitches at home, 10-4 in his last 14 overall and 5-2 against winning teams.
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I’ll go ahead and grab the plus-money with the Twins backing Liriano tonight. Play Minnesota.

4♦ MINNESOTA

Craig Davis
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NY Yankees (-145) at MINNESOTA
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Tonight's free play is on the NY Yankees with ace CC Sabathia on the hill. The Yankees are 9-2 against the Twins in the past decade in the first round of the playoffs, winning the first two series 3 games to 1 followed by a 3-0 sweep last season. It's partially mental, partially talent. But whatever it is this time around, it doesn't really matter.
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All you need to know is that the Yankees were on cruise control the last month of the season and couldn't wait to get to this point in the season again. This is what they played for all year long, and now that they're there, you will see a completely different team than you saw in September.
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Although the Twins were a league-best 53-28 at home, they didn't face too many CC Sabathia's in those wins and I'm not worried the least bit that Minnesota is playing this game at home. Sabathia has plenty of playoff experience and won't be intimidated by those ridiculous towels the Twins fans waive around.
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Francisco Liriano is definitely a solid pitcher, but he's simply overmatched tonight against this Yankees lineup. It will be close for a while, but in the end the Yankees will flex their muscle and take Game 1 tonight.

2♦ NY YANKEES

Jeff Benton

For Wednesday's freebie we’ll head to Philadelphia and play Game 1 of the Reds-Phillies series UNDER the total.

I love the two starting pitchers going in this game, starting with Cincinnati right-hander Edinson Volquez. Although he went just 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA in limited action – he started just 12 games after missing the first four months of the season – Volquez finished the season with a flourish. In six starts (two in Triple-A), Volquez gave up a combined nine earned runs in 40 2/3 innings for a 1.99 ERA.

In his four big-league starts, Volquez had a 1.95 ERA, walked just eight, struck out 31 and didn’t give up a single home run. And check out what this kid has done in two career starts against Philadelphia: one run, seven hits, four walks, 16 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings.

As for Halladay, there’s really nothing you don’t already know. The guy was a stud all season long, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA, including 11-5 with a 2.32 ERA at home. He finished off the regular season with a complete-game, two-hit, 8-0 victory at Washington on Wednesday. Yes, Halladay suffered a 4-3 loss at Cincinnati on June 30 – he threw one bad pitch to Jay Bruce in the eighth inning – but he came back on July 10 in Philly and mowed down the Reds in a complete-game, five-hit 1-0 victory.

The under cashed in four of the final five meetings between these teams this year (including both Halladay starts), and nine of the last 12 clashes at Citizens Bank Park have stayed low (including three of four this year). Additionally, the under was 3-0-1 in Volquez’s four September starts, and Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 at home, 6-2-1 in divisional playoff games, and 8-3-1 when Halladay starts at home.

4♦ Reds-Phillies UNDER