Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +116
A Philadelphia Phillies club with plenty of playoff experience is showing solid value on the run line with ace Roy Halladay on the hill against a Cincinnati Reds club that is making its first postseason appearance since 1995. Philly has certainly had Cincy's number, especially at home. The Phillies have won 10 of 12 home games against the Reds the last 3 seasons, including all 4 meetings this season. It is worth noting that the Phillies have won these games by an average of 2.0 runs. Halladay has been ridiculously good down the stretch. He has won each of his last 5 starts, and the last 4 wins have all come by 2 or more runs. Volquez has relied on strong run support, which is something he likely won't get with Halladay opposing him, when you consider that his ERA is 4.31 on the season (6.08 on the road). Based on his season ERA, he could be right in Philly's wheelhouse, considering the Phillies are 13-1 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 this season, defeating these pitchers by an average of 2.8 runs. Take the Phillies on the run line.
LT Profits
Rangers / Rays Under 7
Cliff Lee of the Texas Rangers has come up huge in past post-seasons and he righted the ship late in the year after struggling for a while with a bad back, while David Price had a breakout season for the Tampa Bay Rays and was very consistent from start to finish.
The bookmakers have installed a total of 7 for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -120.
Once Lee got over his back problems, he returned to his old self allowing a grand total of six earned runs and 18 hits his last four starts covering 28 innings, with 24 strikeouts against only six walks. In fact, he finished the year with 185 strikeouts vs. an unbelievable 18 walks in 212.1 innings, one if the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the history of the game for someone with over 200 innings in a season.
Yes, Lee was hit hard the last time he faced Tampa Bay, but that start came in August, which is when his back hindered his performances. He was fully healthy in his previous start vs. the Rays back in May here at Tropicana Field, and that day, he limited Tampa to two runs on only five hits in eight innings with 10 strikeouts and one walk. Also, do not forget his recent post-season experiences with the Phillies, as playoff experience is often crucial in these games.
As for Price, all he did was go 19-6 this season with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 208.2 innings, with 188 strikeouts against 79 walks. Price only faced the Rangers once this year, and he got credit for a Quality Start while allowing two runs and five hits in six innings with eight strikeouts. He also finished the season strong, with seven consecutive Quality Starts to end the year while allowing one earned run or less in four of those outings.
Finally, the Rays as a team ended the season on an 8-0 ‘under’ run, and given this marquee pitching matchup, look for a ninth straight ‘under’ in Game 1 of the ALDS.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +1.92 over PHILADELPHIA
There is no doubt that the Phillies are overpriced both in game one and in the series and therefore it’s either the Reds or nothing. Edinson Volquez gets the Game One nod on the heels of a smoking September: 1.95 ERA in 28 IP. Also of note is his 54% GB% this season, a welcome feature for anyone pitching in Citizens Bank Park. Volquez did not face the Phillies this season, but in his career has allowed only one run in 12 career IP against Philadelphia. Halladay, on the other hand, "struggled" a bit down the stretch--if that's what you call a 3.44 September ERA--but still finished with 21 wins overall. About the only concern coming in is Halladay's high IP count (251), but Halladay hasn't pitched since the Phils clinched the division on September 27, and relishes his first chance to pitch in the postseason. He faced the Reds twice this year, losing 4-3 on June 30 (when he allowed a season-high 13 hits in 8 IP) and winning a complete-game 1-0 shutout on July 10. Only three Reds have had more than 20 plate appearances against Halladay, and the most successful has been Ramon Hernandez (.351/.368/.405 in 38 career AB.). Both Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, however, have one home run against Halladay in 12 AB. Bruce has been on fire over the last 31 days with 7 HR and a 1.183 OPS. No Phillies player has faced Volquez more than 10 times; in his two career starts, they have only slugged .310 against him. No one doubts the Phillies' edge here, as Halladay, Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels could serve as the ace of most staffs. However, Volquez has the ability to dominate and we saw a few stretches this season in which the Phillies struggled miserably at the plate. The Reds are being sold short. They have a damn good chance to win game one and at this price they’re very worthy of a look. Overlay. Play: Cincinnati +1.92 (Risking 2 units).
Sam Martin
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota
5* Play on Minnesota. Sure, the Yankees have all the experience in this matchup, but we think the wrong team is favored here. The Yankees aren’t a very good road team, going just 43-38 on the road this season. And Sabathia doesn’t have dominant numbers against the Twins in his career, having a 17-12 TSR. Those numbers are good, but not great. And they’ll face a Twins team that was easily the hottest team in the second half of the season, and Liriano held New York to just two runs over seven innings in his last meeting. Value play with the Twins here.
Black Widow
1* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +117
The Phillies should run away with Game 1 tonight behind Ace Roy Halladay. The Doc has lived up to enormous expectations in Philadelphia. He threw a perfect game at Florida on May 29 and finished 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA. Halladay led the majors in wins, complete games (9), shutouts (4) and innings (250.2). Having Halladay on the mound along with a lineup that is healthy and playing their best baseball at the right time, it makes for a good combination for this Game 1 Run Line play. The Phillies’ lineup is smoking hot, averaging 5.6 runs per game since the start of September. Over that same stretch, the Reds have averaged just 4.2 runs per game. Philly is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 this season. They are winning in this spot by 2.8 runs/game. This is too big of a spot for Edinson Volquez and the Reds, who have not been to the postseason since 1995. They'll fold under the pressure in Game 1. Take the Phillies on the Run Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Reds/Phillies UNDER 7
Bottom Line: The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia. With a pair of aces on the hill tonight, I expect to see another matchup come in Under the number. Halladay enters with a 2.45 ERA over his last 3 starts and Volquez brings in an ERA of 2.61 over his last 3. So they are both entering the postseason in top form. Halladay has a 3.13 lifetime ERA against Cincy, and he threw a complete game, 2-hit shutout in his last start against the Reds in July. Volquez is 2-0 lifetime against the Phillies with an ERA of 0.73. The Under is 7-2-1 in Halladay's last 10 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Volquez's last 4 starts overall. Take the Under tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on UAB/UCF OVER 49
The total was set at 52.5 for last year's contest, and these two teams combined for 61 points to finish over the number. Now, we are faced with a number that is 12 points lower than last year's combined score, which I believe gives us the edge with the Over. UAB was not supposed to be as strong offensively this season, and odds makers have set lower numbers on the Blazers because of it. As a result, UAB has been over the total in 3 of its 4 games while scoring at least 29 points in those 3 contests. It is also worth noting that 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have finished over this number. We'll bet the Over tonight.
Doug Upstone
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have the worst record among the eight playoff teams since Sept. 10 at 9-14. Despite that, they have been installed as solid road favorites in the ALDS opener because of their big game pitcher C.C. Sabathia. The lefthander is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA against Minnesota and his club knows how to beat the Twins, sporting a 20-6 record the past three years along with winning 9 of 14 in the land of 10,00 lakes. Play the Pinstripes
Sean Murphy
UAB @ C Florida
PICK: Under 49
My first look is always going to be to the over when it comes to C-USA matchups, but in this particular case, I'm confident we're in for a relatively low-scoring game in Orlando.
UAB checks in allowing over 31 points per game this season, but this is a better defense than the numbers indicate. We can expect somewhat of a correction in the coming weeks, which already may have started in Tennessee two weeks ago.
The Blazers have plenty of returning talent on the defensive side of the ball. This has the potential to be the best UAB defense we've seen in the last three seasons. They've done a fine job against the run so far this season, but have struggled against strong passing teams. The good news is, Central Florida is unlikely to expose that weakness, as their QB tandem of Jeff Godfrey and Rob Calabrese have thrown just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions.
Central Florida boasts one of the most underrated defenses in the entire nation. So far this season they've held the opposition to under 16 points per game on 264 total yards per game. They've been equally strong against the pass and the run, and that will be key against a suddenly balanced UAB offense on Wednesday.
Since the start of last season, UCF has been favored in six lined home games. They've allowed 20 points or less in five of those games. The only blemish on that record is from a 28-21 loss to N.C. State here in Orlando earlier this season. However, it's worth noting that they actually held the Wolfpack to only 239 total yards of offense in that game. They were simply done in by five turnovers on that day.
When these two teams hooked up last year we saw 61 total points scored in a 34-27 UCF victory. The key offensive performers from that game were UCF RB Brynn Harvey and UAB QB Joe Webb. Harvey remains sidelined due to injury, while Webb has moved on to the NFL.
The last time the Blazers and Golden Knights hooked up in Orlando, only 15 points were scored in a UAB shutout victory two years ago.
UAB has done a fairly solid job defensively in two road games this season, allowing 51 points in regulation time against two tough opponents in SMU and Tennessee. Meanwhile, UCF comes in having allowed a grand total of 27 points over its last two contests. Take the under.