DUNKEL INDEX
NCAAF
Kent State at Buffalo
The Golden Flashes look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. Kent State is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3 1/2)
Game 301-302: Kent State at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 71.789; Buffalo 73.406
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3 1/2); Under
MLB
Minnesota at Cleveland
The Twins look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 2-9 in its last 11 games as a favorite. Minnesota is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115)
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.638; Pittsburgh (McPherson) 14.830
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Over
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.423; Washington (Lannan) 14.516
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Over
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.666; Miami (Johnson) 16.474
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+120); Over
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.784; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.465
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.553; Cubs (Rusin) 13.991
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); N/A
Game 961-962: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 15.673; St. Louis (Lynn) 13.992
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-245); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-245); Under
Game 963-964: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 15.675; Arizona (Cahill) 15.922
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under
Game 965-966: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 16.104; San Francisco (Cain) 14.931
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-250); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+210); Over
Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.780; Cleveland (McAllister) 13.756
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.505; NY Yankees (Phelps) 16.414
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: Oakland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.447; Detroit (Verlander) 15.935
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under
Game 973-974: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 14.984; Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.281
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+155); Over
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 17.133; Kansas City (Chen) 10.011
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-165); Under
Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.457; LA Angels (Wilson) 16.170
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110); Over
Game 979-980: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Saunders) 15.595; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.999
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Under
Game 981-982: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Alvarez) 16.094; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.678
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 983-984: LA Dodgers at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 15.150; Washington (Zimmermann) 13.789
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
WNBA
Indiana at Connecticut
The Sun look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games against a team with a winning record. Connecticut is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2)
Game 601-602: Indiana at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.762; Connecticut 117.642
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7; 148 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Under
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Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
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Time is running out on the Pirates playoff run as they host the Brewers on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh will send Kyle McPherson to the mound for his first career Major League start. He has pitched in seven games out of the bullpen striking out 11 while walking only two. He posted a 3.22 ERA in 12 minor league starts and he’s the club's #10 prospect according to MLB scouts. He'll face a Brewers team that is also making a playoff push as well, but they are still only 29-43 on the road. They have had their struggles hitting away from home. The Pirates’ bullpen has had their issues, but they still have an ERA of less than 3.00 at home and only five blown saves.
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Marco Estrada is making his 21st start for Milwaukee. His problems come on the road where he is 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA. Estrada strikes out fewer batters on the road and he has gone less innings as well. He has two no-decisions against the Pirates this season after giving up 4 runs and 10 hits in just over 12 innings. Both of those starts came at home though so he was a little more effective. Pittsburgh is hitting right around .250 in their last eight games and they are 42-31 at home. They will see a Brewers’ bullpen with 31 losses and 25 blown saves. We see some good value with the Pirates on the run line so we’ll recommend playing them plus the runs in this game tonight.
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Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5
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This is a big number for Tampa Bay to putting down tonight being in the slump that it is currently in so we will be going with the runline is what is some very good value. The Rays are now getting into must win mode as they have lost four straight games and seven of their last eight. The offense has struggled the majority of the skid as they have scored three runs or less in five of those games but ever if there was a game to bust out, this is the one. Despite the recent struggles, the Rays are 41-18 in their last 59 home games against teams with a losing record. They send Christopher Archer to the hill for a spot start in place of David Price so while the pressure may be on to perform, he has shown he can do it. In his only other September start, he tossed seven innings against Texas and allowed just four hits and two runs while striking out 11 hitters. Boston has not seen him which is an edge and the Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 games against right-handed starters. The win last night was the fourth in five games on this current roadtrip for Boston but it is still three games under .500 on the road for the season and 13 games under .500 overall. The Red Sox pitching is still a big liability with a 4.52 ERA on the season which is sixth worst in baseball and they are 4-17 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. The reason the Rays can bust out on offense tonight is because Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the hill and he has struggled in his limited action this year. He has a 7.14 ERA overall including a 13.06 ERA over his last three starts. The road has been nearly as bad as he has a 10.12 ERA in four road outings and facing Tampa Bay will not turn that around. He has a 14.66 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays and Boston has lost his last five outings against them. The Sox are 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog between +151 and +200.
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Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee
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The Brewers' (75-72) Marco Estrada (3-6, 3.77 ERA) is set to square off against the Pirates' (74-73) Kyle McPherson (0-0, 1.54 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Estrada gave up four hits over 6 2/3's frames, striking out six to beat the Braves 5-0 last Tuesday. He's now given up one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts.
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McPherson has been given the starters role to replace James McDonald; he's made seven appearances for the team, giving up two runs over 11 2/3's frames of work with 11 K's. Suffice it to say though, his first career start is a tough one.
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These two teams are moving in opposite directions; with yesterday's 6-0 loss, the Pirates have dropped 13 of their last 17.
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No such troubles for the Brewers, who remain one of the hottest clubs in the league, having won 21 of their last 27, averaging 6.0 runs per game while batting .292 collectively.
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Those numbers going up as well whenever facing Pittsburgh; Milwaukee is batting .322 with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases during a five game win streak in the series.
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You'll want to keep your eyes on the Brewers' Ryan Braun, who is hitting .429 with two long-balls and four RBIs in five games.
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And Estrada will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that he's 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in seven games vs. the Pirates.
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Milwaukee has the confidence and momentum; it's facing a rookie hurler and a struggling lineup.
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In my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value"; consider a second look at the Milwaukee Brewers in this situation!
Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
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Big win for the O's last night...an 18 inning marathon in Seattle. While both teams used up their pens, I believe Baltimore is the team in better shape to bounce back in this one. Joe Saunders is getting comfortable with his new team, posting a 2.54 ERA & 1.19 WHIP in his last three starts for the Orioles. He's owned the Mariners at Safeco, sporting a 6-0 record in eight starts with a 2.30 ERA & 1.28 WHIP. The lineup he faces tonight is averaging just 2.8 rpg at home against lefties this season. Seattle will send Felix Hernandez to the mound. After dominating just about anyone and everyone, King Felix has hit a snag in his last three starts, getting pounded for 16 earned runs and 30 hits, while lasting just 16 innings. Hernandez has been tagged for a 1.49 WHIP & .300 BAA in his career against the Orioles. Baltimore keeps finding ways to fend off the Angels in the wildcard race and I believe they're the play as a decent sized underdog on Wednesday. I'm backing the Orioles.
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Rangers at AngelsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We had the Under in Game One of this series but a big eight-run inning against Ryan Dempster blew this game wide open and fueled the Angels' easy 11-3 victory. Despite that resulting Over, Los Angeles (81-67) has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Under is also 6-1-2 in the Angels' last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And the Under is 8-2-1 in LA's last 11 games when favored. They send out Wilson who is 12-9 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better at home this year given his 3.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP as opposed to his 3.93 ERA and 1.34 WHIP when on the road. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Angels' last 12 games when Wilson was pitching the second game of a series. He should fare well against a Rangers team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Texas (87-60) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Rangers have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Texas' last 4 games on the road. They counter with Holland who is 10-6 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this year. The lefty has been very tough as of late. In his last five starts, Holland is 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA while average 7 innings in each of these Quality Start performances. Holland has been much better on the road as well with his 3.77 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .225 opponent's batting average when away from home. The Rangers have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with Holland pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Take the Under in this one while listing both starting pitchers.
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Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a solid totals system that plays to the under for road dogs like Dodgers off a home loss with a total of 8 or less if they scored 2 or less runs and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road loss. Both teams have been anemic at the plate. The Dodgers are scoring 2.4 runs on .186 hitting the past week and Washington 2.6 and .217 in that same time span. The Dodgers have played under in 10 of 13 this month and have Harang on the mound. Harang has posted unders in his last 3 starts and 5 of 7 vs Washington. Zimmerman has been under rated and solid all year and has a 3.01 era this season. Look for this game to stay under the total tonight.
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Twins vs Indians
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Cleveland is a good offensive park and a pair of struggling starters take the hill. Minnesota has Liam Hendriks on the mound (0-7, 6.14 ERA), who has a 6.59 ERA his last three starts. Hendriks is still winless in first 13 starts thus far and has allowed 10 runs in the last 13 2/3 innings of work for the Twins. The over is 34-16-1 in the Twins last 51 games following an off day. Zach McAllister goes for the Indians and is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA his last three starts. He's faced the Twins twice this season and is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA. And the over is 48-23-6 in Indians last 77 vs. the American League Central! Play the Twins/Indians over the total.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
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Easy free play winner on Tuesday with Milwaukee. No reason not to fire right back with hot Marco Estrada throwing against thee faded Pirates. The Brewers are the choice again.
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Buffalo -3.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not a full premium play, but Buffalo is at home here and Kent State is woeful on the road not winning a road game dating back to 2010. Buffalo can flat out run the ball, with a dual threat QB and a RB that is ranked 2nd in the nation in rushing yards. Kent State's defense leaves allot to be desired and with Buffalo, they have 4 veteran OL returners plowing the road for a potent rushing attack. At home, against a weak road team I am willing to lay the 3.5
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BUFFALO -4 over Kent State: Neither team has a common opponent yet but both teams have played an SEC team and I feel that Buffalo was more impressive in their loss than Kent was in theirs. Trailing by 24-6 in the first half the Bulls scored the final 10 points to pull within 8 at the half vs a powerful Georgia squad. The Bulls put up 23 points and 347 yards vs them, including 199 yards on the ground. The Bulls lost by just 22 points in that game covering the spread by 16 points. Kent State faced a much weaker SEC squad in Kentucky and were blown out by 33 points, as 6.5 dogs. They were outgained by 130 yards in the game and were outgained by 39 yards in their 20 point win over Towson to open the season. They are not playing all that well and to make matters worse they just lost CB Norman Wolfe (8 Career INT's) for the year. The Flashes still havce a solid defense but will struggle on offense and just won't be able to put up enough points to keep this one close vs a Bulls team that has averaged 39.5 ppg, played better vs tougher SEC competition and is at home. Bulls by at least a TD in this one. KEY TREND--- Kent State is 3-35 SU and 8-28-1 ATS vs opponents that are off a SU win of 20 or more points.
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Boston / Tampa Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the chance to continue being a trainwreck this seaso with a start against the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night. Matsuzaka has given up 33 runs in 40.1 innings of work. For his career, against the Rays, Matsuzaka has a 5.83 ERA. In his last three starts, he has allowed 15 runs in 10.1 innings of work. The Rays lead the American League in walks and stolen bases, two things Matsuzaka has trouble with, command and holding runners. The Rays will send Chris Archer to the mound for his fourth start of the season. Archer had issued over 4.5 walks per nine innings over the last two seasons in the minors, so, the Red Sox should be able to work some counts and get some baserunners. This looks like it could be a game with a lot of baserunners and that always gives an over a chance.
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4 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Angels/ Texas Over 8: Google News Play Im gonna go with the Over in this one just like last night. Really miffed that the OU line is this low, considering the fact that CJ Wilson's last 9 starts have averaged a whopping 15.3 rpg. Last night the Halos put up 11 runs and that was without Pujols, but he will be back in this one, giving the Halos another offensive weapon. The Angels have crushed left handed pitching of late, hitting .356 and scoring 8.8 rp/9 innings off of southpaws in their last 10 games. The Texas offense has struggled some of late on the road, but Wilson is not unhittable as he has a 3.48 ERA at home and a 4.15 ERA at night and Texas hits .285 and scores 5.5 rp/9 off of lefties on the road. This has been a high scoring series of late as 14.2 rpg have been scored in the last 9 games played between these two teams and with two very good offenses going at it I expect more of the same tonight.
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DETROIT -165 over Oakland: Google News Play Detroit is fighting hard for a playoff berth and it was never more evident than last night's blowout win. Miguel Cabrera is sizzling for Detroit and tonight they have their ace on the mound. Justin Verlander has had his struggles this year, but he is still 14-8 with a 2.82 ERA, while at home he sports a 7-2 mark with a skinny 1.70 ERA. Justin is just 3-2 in his last 5 starts vs the A's, but with a nice 1.95 ERA. Brett Anderson has pitched well in his 5 starts for the A's this year, as he is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA, but he was rocked in his last start allowing 5 ER's in 6.2 innings of work at the Angels. Brett and the A's are in a bad spot here. Verlander pitches very well at home and the Detroit offense has been hot of late, averaging 6.3 rpg in their last 7 games. Look for another solid win by Detroit in this one.
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Minnesota +124 over CLEVELAND
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Obviously both teams are just playing out the string but Ron Gardenhire managed teams are expected to give it their all and that’s precisely what we’ll get. The Indians stopped playing after the all-star break. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has scored the third most runs in the league in September.
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There’s more reason for the Twinkies to get motivated here. Liam Hendricks has started 18 games in his career and he has yet to win a single one of them. His teammates will dig down deep here to get him that illusive first major league win. Why he's on our radar even with a rough, brief career is a 1.74 ERA with outstanding command at A-ball in 2010, a 3.22 ERA at AA in 2011 and a 1.94 ERA in seven starts at Triple AAA Rochester earlier this year. He was probably rushed (less than 50 IP above AA prior to this year) but the exceptional control and good groundball rate are encouraging.
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Both of Zach McAllister's starts against the Twins this season have been short and ugly. He allowed nine runs in 1.2 innings of a 14-3 loss August 6. On September 8, he threw 87 pitches, walked three batters and gave up three runs in three innings before being yanked. McAllister has an 8.42 ERA over his last four starts and his last win came on August 11. Look for the Twins to respond to Hendricks plight and once again beat a Cleveland team that has dropped 25 of its last 32.
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L.A. ANGELS -119 over Texas
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While we might usually consider Derek Holland vs. C.J. Wilson a wash, current form shows that Holland is 1-3 with a 7.04 ERA in his last five starts in Anaheim.
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The red-hot Angels are laying a cheap price here against a team they’ve defeated at home five out of seven games this season. The Halos took the opener last night, 11-3 and have now won 15 of their past 20 games. In September, L.A. has a league leading 2.17 ERA and the last time C.J. Wilson faced his former team he didn’t allow a run in 6.2 innings.
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There’s also a good chance that Josh Hamilton will miss this game, as he left last night’s contest with a serious sinus infection and he’s also been nursing a bum knee. Take away his 42 jacks plus his presence in the lineup and it certainly hurts this intruder’s chances. The Angels are the hottest team in the majors. They’re getting tremendous production at the plate and outstanding pitching from both starters and relievers. The Halos are just 3 games out of a Wild Card spot and the AL is on notice.
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Philadelphia Phillies -130
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The Philadelphia Phillies have made a remarkable run to get to .500 on the season at 74-74. They still have an outside shot at making the postseason as a wild-card in the National League, and until they're eliminated, they'll continue to fight.
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The New York Mets have clearly packed it in, losing nine of their last 10 games overall to fall to 66-81 on the season. They are 4-23 in their last 27 home games while hitting .223 and scoring 2.2 runs/game during this stretch as hosts.
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Cole Hamels is 15-6 with a 3.06 ERA this season, including 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies are 6-0 in Hamels' last 6 starts as a favorite. Philly is 60-23 in Hamels' last 83 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. National League East. New York is 1-11 in its last 12 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.