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Hawaii (2-1, 2-0 AT) at Louisiana Tech (1-2, 0-2 ATS)
Hawaii heads back to the mainland for the third straight game as it opens Western Athletic Conference play against the Bulldogs at Joe Aillet Stadium.
The Warriors opened up with victories over Central Arkansas (25-20 in a non-lined home game) and Washington State (38-20 as a 1½-point road chalk), then went to Las Vegas on Sept. 19 and fell 34-33 to UNLV, cashing as a seven-point road underdog. Hawaii held a 33-28 lead against UNLV before allowing a 15-yard touchdown pass with 36 seconds remaining, losing despite finishing with 505 total yards, including 477 passing yards by QB Greg Alexander.
Louisiana Tech kicked off 2009 with blowout road losses to Auburn (37-13 as a 13½-point underdog) and Navy (32-14 as a seven-point pup), but the Bulldogs returned home Sept. 19 and got back on track in a big way with a 48-13 rout of Division I-AA Nichols State in a non-lined contest. Still, since a 4-0 run to start last November, Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 (2-2 ATS) against Division I-A competition.
Hawaii has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and six of seven (5-2 ATS) against the Bulldogs this decade, including last year’s 24-14 home victory as a 7½-point favorite. The host is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes (5-0 ATS last five), with the SU winner going 6-1 ATS as well. Also, take away a pick-em game in 2003, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six meetings.
The Warriors are averaging 32 points and 514.7 yards per game, with Alexander doing most of the damage (67 percent completion rate, 1,222 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs). Also, the defense has been respectable, allowing 24.7 points and 384 yards per contest (126.3 rushing ypg). Conversely, the Bulldogs have been outscored (27.3-25.0 ppg) and outgained (406.7-323.3 ypg) through their three games, with the defense getting gashed for 250.7 rushing ypg (4.7 yards per carry). La-Tech quarterback Ross Jenkins has completed 62 percent of his throws for 662 yards, three TDs and two INTs.
In addition to cashing in its first two lined games of 2009, Hawaii carries a slew of additional pointspread trends into tonight, including 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 9-3 in September, 7-2 coming off a straight-up loss, 5-1 as an underdog and 6-1 in WAC contests. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, but otherwise are in pointspread slumps of 5-13 after a bye week, 8-21 against teams with a winning record, 8-28-1 after a SU victory, 3-11 in September and 1-4 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
Thanks to a high-octane offense, the Warriors are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 21-10 in WAC play, 20-8-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 as an underdog. Louisiana Tech has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five at home, three of four as a favorite and five of six in league action. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings between these schools, with the lone “under” coming last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (84-74) at Atlanta (86-71)
Javier Vazquez (15-9, 2.83 ERA) looks to keep the streaking Braves in the N.L. wild-card race as he pitches opposite the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco (12-9, 5.28) in the finale of a three-game series at Turner Field.
Atlanta had a season-high seven-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Florida, a costly setback that dropped the Braves three games behind wild-card leading Colorado, which got a walk-off 7-5, 11-inning victory over Milwaukee. Still, Atlanta is on runs of 15-3 overall (5-3 at home), 11-3 against the N.L. East, 13-2 as a favorite, 13-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series.
Florida has split its last 18 games, a slump that has dropped the team 5½ games out in the wild-card standings. The Marlins are otherwise on positive streaks of 8-4 on the road, 12-6 in N.L. East play, 6-1 as an underdog and 5-0 on Wednesday.
The Marlins hold a slim 9-8 edge in the season series with Atlanta, and the road team has won 10 of the 17 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in an 18-36 rut at Turner Field (5-3 this year).
Nolasco has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and he’s got a 39-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch, including 17-2 in his last two outings. The right-hander pitched seven innings on Friday against the Mets, yielding three runs on four hits, but got a no-decision as the Marlins lost 6-5. Nolasco is 7-5 despite a hefty 5.54 ERA on the road this year.
Florida is 5-2 in Nolasco’s last five starts on the highway and 7-3 in his last 10 against divisional foes, but the Marlins have lost six of Nolasco’s last eight starts against the Braves, going 0-4 in Atlanta. For his career, he’s 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) versus the Braves (1-0, 4.67 ERA in three starts this year).
Vazquez is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last four trips to the hill (three runs allowed in 32 innings), including a pair of complete games, the most recent coming Friday at Washington when the veteran right-hander scattered three hits and a run in a 4-1 victory. However, Vazquez is just 5-7 at home this season despite a 2.85 ERA, and the Braves are just 7-8 when he pitches at Turner Field, averaging less than four runs per game.
Vazquez is 6-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) against the Marlins, including 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts this season (three of which the Braves lost). In fact, Vazquez has faced Florida 10 times with three different teams since 2002, and the Marlins are 8-2.
With Nolasco pitching, the Marlins are on “over” surges of 6-1 overall, 8-2 on Wednesday, 4-0 against the N.L. East and 4-0 when he faces the Braves in Atlanta. Similarly, the “over” behind Vazquez is on runs of 8-3-2 overall, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 4-0-1 when pitching on four days’ rest, but the under is still 6-2-2 in Vazquez’s last 10 outings at Turner Field.
The under is 6-1-1 in Florida’s last eight road games, and Atlanta is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all against divisional foes), 4-2 against right-handed starters and 10-5-1 at home against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 in the last nine Braves-Marlins battles at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (82-75) at Detroit (84-73)
The Twins face a virtual must-win situation tonight at Comerica Park as they send Carl Pavano (13-11, 4.86 ERA) the mound in the third game of a four-game set against the Tigers, who will hand the ball to Eddie Bonine (0-1, 4.60).
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Twins earning a 3-2, 10-inning victory in the opener and the Tigers holding on for a 6-5 win in the nightcap. With the split, Detroit continues to lead the A.L. Central by two games over Minnesota.
The Twins have used an 12-3 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 on Wednesday, 11-2 on the road versus right-handed starters, 8-1 as a favorite and 17-6 in A.L. Central games.
Detroit has followed up a 3-9 slump by winning six of its last nine. Jim Leyland’s squad is 34-16 in its last 50 home games.
The Twins are 10-6 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 11 of the 16 meetings.
Pavano earned a 9-4 victory at Kansas City on Friday, yielding all four runs in six innings. That ended a string of six consecutive quality starts in which he gave up two earned runs or fewer four times. The Twins are unbeaten in Pavano’s last four trips to the mound, and they’re 5-1 in his last six road efforts. For the season, Pavano is 9-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 18 starts on the highway, including 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in six road efforts since being traded to the Twins in early August.
Pavano has faced the Tigers twice since joining Minnesota, pitching seven shutout innings in an 11-0 road win on Aug. 8 (his first start with the Twins), then yielding two runs on 11 hits in seven innings on Sept. 19, getting a no-decision in Minnesota’s 6-2 victory. In fact, all five of Pavano’s career starts against Detroit have come this season, and he’s 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA (3-0, 1.61 ERA in three games at Comerica Park).
Bonine has made two starts this month, allowing five runs (three earned) in 11 2/3 innings, with the Tigers beating the Royals 4-3 at home on Sept. 16, then losing 2-0 at the White Sox on Friday. Going back to last year, Detroit has won five straight games behind Bonine at home, where the right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in 15 innings (two starts, two relief appearances) in 2009. Bonine’s only career outing against the Twins came last July, and he survived just 2 2/3 innings, yielding five runs (two earned) in a 7-0 road loss.
As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 20-7-4 overall, 14-5-3 against right-handed starters, 8-3-2 on Wednesday, 12-4-2 as a chalk and 3-1-2 in Pavano’s last six starts, though the Twins have topped the total in five of seven on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall (all against the A.L. Central) and 7-2 at home. However, the under is 6-1 in Bonine’s last seven starts dating to last season.
Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall, but the over is 4-2-1 in the last seven series clashes at Comerica Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
DUNKEL
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 1-11 in David Hernandez' last 12 starts as an underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (-235) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-235)
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 15.220; Washington (Lannan) 14.168
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 903-904: Houston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.304; Philadelphia (Martinez) 14.958
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 905-906: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.489; Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.850
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-215); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+195); Under
Game 907-908: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Smoltz) 15.621; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.491
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.510; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.433
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 16.271; Colorado (Hammel) 15.109
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-215); 10
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+195); Over
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Garland) 14.258; San Diego (Richard) 15.000
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 915-916: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Mulvey) 15.728; San Francisco (Penny) 14.758
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+175); Under
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.095; Cleveland (Masterson) 13.968
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 919-920: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Tejeda) 15.222; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.295
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Under
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 16.005; Detroit (Bonine) 15.373
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 12.823; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.880
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-235); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-235); Under
Game 925-926: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.680; Boston (Wakefield) 16.322
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.788; LA Angels (Palmer) 15.366
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 929-930: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mortensen) 15.996; Seattle (Morrow) 15.405
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Under
Game 931-932: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.215; Cubs (Lilly) 15.153
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-290); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+265); N/A
Game 933-934: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Torres) 14.416; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.523
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAF
Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
The Warriors look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Hawaii is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Louisiana Tech favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+5)
Game 101-102: Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 78.910; Louisiana Tech 81.029
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 5; 56
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+5); Under
Rob Vinciletti
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech -4.5
Both teams come into this one off a bye week. La.Tech has revenge from a 24-14 loss to Hawaii. La.Tech brings back 16 starters from last years squad compared to just 9 for Hawaii. They are 8-0 as favorites,while Hawaii is just 1-9 straight up and 2-8 ats as a road dog in this range. La.Tech likes to run the ball and could keep the Hawaii pass offense on the side lines most of the game. Hawaii is 2-1 this year but has beaten C.Arkansas and Washington St. La.Tech has played much tougher teams losing at Auburn and Navy. La.Tech is a better team this year and I never like taking Hawaii on the main land against teams that have revenge.
Tony Mathews
LA Dodgers vs. SD Padres
Play: Dodgers/Padres Under
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The LA Dodgers will use starting pitcher Jon Garland. Jon Garland has been pitching great as of late. In fact, Jon Garland has a 0.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Jon Garland pitching another great game today.
The SD Padres will use starting pitcher Clayton Richard. Clayton Richard has been pitching well as of late. In fact, Clayton Richard has a 2.65 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Clayton Richard pitching another solid game today.
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Recent games being played in San Diego has been low-scoring. In face, the UNDER is 9-2 in the San Diego Padres last 11 home games.
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Take the LA Dodgers/SD Padres Under
DAVE COKIN
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CINCINNATI REDS
TAKE: CINCINNATI REDS
The Cardinals still have a chance to garner home field for the NL playoffs, but it's looking likely they will open on the road. The Reds are not going anywhere, but they've been playing very solid ball down the stretch and Bronson Arroyo has been on fire for Cincy. John Smoltz has been effective as well for the Redbirds, but right now Arroyo is a go with pitcher and I'm sure he wants to finish on a high note. I'll back the Reds to beat the Cardinals tonight.
JIM FEIST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
TAKE: OVER
Arizona's pitching has slumped in September, on a 9-5-1 run over the total. Starter Kevin Mulvey goes here, with an 0-2 record and an 8.84 ERA this season. He has allowed 35 base runners in 18 innigs! The Giants go with Brad Penny. He hasn't been much better in the NL, with a 5.09 ERA his last three starts. San Fran is on a 6-3-1 run over the total and a pair of below average starters go here. Play the D-Backs/Giants Over the total.
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota -120 at DETROIT
Scored a FREE winner Tuesday with the Twins in the opening game of their doubleheader with the Tigers. Tonight, I'm going with the same team as they are builiding momentum toward something big this last week of the season!
Tuesday's split of a doubleheader didn't do anything for Minnesota except waste two games off the schedule. The Twins are still two games behind the Tigers witih two more left in this critical four-game set in Detroit.
Looking at today's pitching matchup, it's a no-brainer that I'm playing a very desparate team with Carl Pavano (13-11, 4.86 ERA) on the hill rather than the team sitting with the lead and youngster Eddie Bonine (0-1, 4.60).
Minnesota is in must-win mode now. They need to erase that two-game lead over the next two nights if they want any shot at the postseason.
Pavano has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings and Minnesota is unbeaten in his last four trips to the mound, and 5-1 in his last six roadies. He has gone 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his six road outings since coming to the Twins in early August. Pavano has already faced Detroit twice since joining the Twins and threw seven shutout innings in an 11-0 road win on Aug. 8 and then givign up two runs in seven innings on Sept. 19, getting a no-decision in a 6-2 Minnesota win.
What has Pavano done at the Tigers' Comerica Park, just go 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA.
Bonine has made just two starts this month and given up five runs in 11.2 innings. He's got a 5.40 ERA in 15 inning at home and in his only career outing against Minnesota, he allowed five runs in 2.2 innings of a 7-0 loss.
The Twins are 12-3 in their last 15 games and 11-2 on the road against right-handers. This is an easy call with a desparate Twins squad. Play Minnesota.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Dominic Fazzini
Minnesota -120 at DETROIT
I nailed my complimentary selection Tuesday with the Phillies' 7-4 run-line victory over Houston. Now I'm going to win again on the most important game on today's sports schedule.
If the Twins end up winning the AL Central crown, they will have Carl Pavano to thank for playing a major role in their accomplishment.
Pavano is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five outings vs. Detroit this season, including 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in three starts at Comerica Park.
The veteran right-hander has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 outings, and has made eight quality starts in that stretch.
Tigers starter Eddie Bonine was sharp in his last outing, giving up two runs (both unearned) and two hits in 6 2/3 innings Friday at Chicago, but he has struggled at home this year, with no decisions and a 5.40 ERA in four games (two starts).
The right-hander faced Minnesota on July 2, and allowed five runs (two earned) and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings in the Twins' 7-0 victory.
The Twins have won 12 of 15 games, and are hitting .309 during that run. I don't know if Minnesota is going to catch Detroit, but I think it makes the Tigers sweat a little bit more today. Take the Twins to creep closer in the AL Central race.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota -130 at DETROIT
Another comp play winner last night on Kansas City-NY Yankees UNDER the total. Now 41-24-4 the last 69 days with our comp plays.
After splitting their double-header yesterday, it is very important the Twins take tonight's game to keep the pressure on in the Central, and tonight they have the right guy on the hill to keep that pressure on.
Carl Pavano has been a Tiger-killer this season, as he has made 5 starts against Detroit this year, and is 4-0. He has worked 37 innings of 7 run ball along the way, as it just appears that whether Pavano is pitching for the Indians, or the Twins, Detroit just can't figure him out.
Minnesota is 8-1 their last 9 games as a favorite, and they are also 6-2 their last 8 on the road, and 12-3 their last 15 overall.
We will back the Twins to trim the lead in the AL Central with the win tonight.
Play on Minnesota.
3♦ MINNESOTA
BIG AL
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Milwaukee at Colorado
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Colorado remains in the drivers seat for the N.L. Wild Card spot heading into tonight and wouldn't it be fitting if an unheralded pitcher like Jason Hammel contributed with a big victory tonight for what if probably the most unheralded team still left in conention. Hammel saw another strong start go to waste on Thursday, as he lasted 6 1/3 innings and yielded two runs on six hits, striking out six while walking none. Hammel has gone at least six innings in his last five starts, and in 10 of his last 11 starts he's allowed three runs or less, making the former Tampa Bay righthander one of the club's most dependable starters in the second half of the season. Milwaukee veteran righthanded starter Jeff Suppan was cruising along with back-to-back quality starts and then the wheels really came off in his last outing against the Phillies as Suppan surrendered 12 hits and seven earned runs in less than five innings in what was his second-worst start of the season. It's been a very up-and-down 2009 campaign for the 15-year veteran, but mostly down as indicated by his 7-11 record, 5.04 ERA and the fact that his strikeouts are down (only 76 in 153 innings) and his walks are up (72). The Rockies have been one of the best home teams of late, going 39-16 in their last 55 home games heading into the start of this series.
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PLAY COLORADO
MTi Sports
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
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The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since June 03, 2009 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs and the Giants are 7-0 since August 12, 2009 at home when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher.
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Play on: San Francisco
Matt Fargo
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Washington has won the first two games of this series and the only thing it can do now if finish strong and hope to carry that over into 2010. The Nationals have won five of the last seven meetings in this series and this is the final home game of the season for them. It has been a season to forget but they will no doubt be up and ready to win the final game at Nationals Park in 2009. The Mets are in the midst of a horrific run as they are 5-16 over their last 21 games including a 3-9 record on the road where they are 22 games under .500 on the season. This will be the final start of the season for John Lannan and he has had a very solid year for Washington even though his record tells otherwise. Playing for a bad team will cut down on the wins but it has not affected him as he continues to pitch strong right up until the very end. He has allowed only four earned runs in his last three outings, his last two being quality starts and one of those came against New York at Citi Field. At home this season, Lannan has a 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts with Washington going 7-9 in those games. The National has 32 home wins so his starts have accounted for over 20 percent of those victories. He has faced the Mets three times at home over the last two seasons and he has been nearly untouchable as he has a 0.36 ERA and 0.72 WHIP covering 25 innings and all of those games resulted in Washington victories. He faced Tim Redding who has been up and down this season but has been pretty solid of late. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 16 starts and 13 relief appearances. New York just cannot win in games he is involved in as it is just 8-21 in those 29 games including 6-10 in his starts. He has been great against Washington this season but his last start at Nationals Park was way back in May when the Mets were still playing for something. The Mets are 3-14 in their last 17 road games against a left-handed starter while the Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record. They are also 5-2 in their last seven games as a home favorite and this is a very good price with one of the better pitchers on the mound tonight. 3* Washington Nationals
HENTAI SPORTS
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New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction : Washington Nationals
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Washington has won the first two games of this series and the only thing it can do now if finish strong and hope to carry that over into 2010. The Nationals have won five of the last seven meetings in this series and this is the final home game of the season for them. It has been a season to forget but they will no doubt be up and ready to win the final game at Nationals Park in 2009. The Mets are in the midst of a horrific run as they are 5-16 over their last 21 games including a 3-9 record on the road where they are 22 games under .500 on the season. This will be the final start of the season for John Lannan and he has had a very solid year for Washington even though his record tells otherwise. Playing for a bad team will cut down on the wins but it has not affected him as he continues to pitch strong right up until the very end. He has allowed only four earned runs in his last three outings, his last two being quality starts and one of those came against New York at Citi Field. At home this season.
LT Profits
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
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The Detroit Tigers maintained their two-game lead in the American League Central by gaining a split in their doubleheader with the Minnesota Twins yesterday, and with tensions running high, we look for a low scoring affair in Game 3 of this series tonight.
Carl Pavano has been a key acquisition by the Twins, as he has improved his record to 13-11 on the season after coming over from the sad-sack Cleveland Indians. He has now posted seven Quality Starts in ten outings in a Twins uniform, and he has been arguably their best starting pitcher during their playoff push.
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What also makes Pavano a key acquisition is his uncanny success vs. the Tigers. Pavano has faced Detroit five times this year as a member of both the Twins and the Tribe, and he is a perfect five for five in Quality Starts against them. In fact, he has yet to allow more than two runs in any start against the Tigers this season while going at least seven innings on every occasion.
Now Detroit is going with young Eddie Bonine in this pivotal contest, and even though Bonine is pitching the biggest game of his life, he has shown no butterflies while being thrust into a Major League pennant race since his September call-up. He allowed only three runs in his first September start, and then his last outing was one of the best of his brief career, as he did not allow an earned run (two unearned) in 6.2 innings vs. the Chicago White Sox.
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If Pavano continues his mastery of the Tigers as we expect, we see no reason why Bonine cannot pitch well enough here to keep this game Under the total.
Pick: Twins/Tigers Under 9.5
EZWINNERS
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
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Baltimore has lost nine straight games started by starter David Hernandez, who is 0-5 in that stretch and hasn't won a game since August 11th. Earlier this season the Rays hammered Hernandez for five earned runs on nine hits in only three innings. James Shields takes the mound for the Rays and in two starts against Baltimore this season Shields has an ERA of only 0.71. The Orioles have been struggling with their bats and I look for Shields to shut them down here. Play Tampa on the runline.