Stephen Nover
Minnesota -110 at DETROIT
The Twins must win today or Thursday to stay alive for the playoffs. They have an excellent chance today with Carl Pavano on the hill against rookie right-hander Eddie Bonine.
The Tigers are just hoping Bonine can keep them in the game for six innings. This is just his ninth big league start and the pressure is enormous, especially pitching in front of the home crowd.
Pavano is a veteran who has owned Detroit this season going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five starts. Pavano is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA pitching at Comerica Park this season. The Twins have a huge bullpen edge, too, especially at closer with Joe Nathan.
The Twins have been playing better than Detroit winning 12 of their last 15. They have won 11 of their last 13 road games when facing a right-handed starter.
1♦ MINNESOTA TWINS
Randle the Handle
Kansas City +1.65 over NY YANKEES
The only thing that matters to the Yankees right now is being healthy come the start of the playoffs next week. Joe Girardi is resting people every day and other guys are getting pulled early. The Yanks do not care who wins and who loses right now, as they have secured home field throughout and they can’t wait for Sunday. They’ll face a very tough pitcher here in Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda has allowed a sick 39 hits in 68.2 innings. On the road he’s 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA after allowing just 11 hits in 27 frames for a BAA of .121. In those 68 frames he’s thrown this year the opposition has gone yard on him just twice. The Yanks have yet to see him this season and that, too, can’t hurt our chances. Joba Chamberlain goes for the Yanks and he’s hit and miss. He has a very average or unimpressive 4.72 ERA and the bottom line here is that the Royals have a great chance to pick up a win against this uninterested host. Nice value here. Play: Kansas City +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1.04 over St. Louis
The Reds continue to do everything right and remain one of the league’s hottest teams. The Reds have won seven of its past eight and 24 of its past 35 games. Not only are they winning but their bats are feeling it too. In fact, the Reds have scored 10 runs or more in four of its last seven games. Now with everything going their way, Cinci will also have its best pitcher on the mound. Bronson Arroyo has lasted at least seven innings in all 11 starts since the beginning of August, going 4-3 with a 1.99 ERA. He gave up one run and five hits over seven innings in his latest outing, a 4-1 victory at Pittsburgh on Thursday. The guy has been lights out for weeks now. By contrast, the Cards have taken some time off since clinching, posting just one win in five games. The offense is in a funk too, hitting a combined .228 since they wrapped up a post-season birth on Saturday. John Smoltz used to be a guy you could count on but that was then and this is now. The Cardinals have a long history of picking up pitchers off the scrap heap and working wonders with them for a season or two but Smoltz is not a guy you can trust. He hasn’t pitched at this hitter’s park since ’06 and he’s not going to like it. Anyway, we’ll go with hot vs cold at home, laying a very cheap price indeed. Play: Cincinnati –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Tom Freese
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Under
Cincinnati is 24-7-3 UNDER their last 34 games vs. winning teams and they are 21-8 UNDER when their opponent scored 2 or less runs in their last game. The Reds are 20-5-2 UNDER with Bronson Arroyo on the mound if he has 5 days of rest and they are 6-1 UNDER at home vs. St. Louis with Arroyo on the mound. St. Louis is 6-0 UNDER the last 6 starts made by John Smoltz and they are 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games as favorites of -110 to -150. Smoltz has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -1.5 -125 GM 1
The Cubs have long owned the Pirates, going 32-13 against them the last 3 seasons, including 16-5 at home during that stretch. They are 10-2 against Pittsburgh this season, including 5-1 at home with yesterday's 6-0 win. I like the Cubs, who have won 7 of 9, to keep right on rolling behind Lilly here, who's 8-1 at home (Cubs are 11-1 in his 12 home starts) with an ERA of 1.60. The Pirates send Morton to the mound, who's 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA on the road this season. Plus, he's 0-2 lifetime against the Cubs with an ERA of 37.84 and a WHIP of 5.405. I'll take the Cubs at home this afternoon in Game 1.
Doc’s Sports
Take Chicago White Sox +110 over Cleveland Indians
This will be the first game of a Doubleheader. Carlos Torres goes for the Sox, and Fausto Carmona takes the hill for the Indians. Counting on Ozzie Guillen's tirade to carry over into this contest.
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Houston Astros
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Houston as they face Philadelphia set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play are numerous angles supporting Houston and working against Philadelphia. Note that Houston is 11-5 (+9.2 Units) against the money line versus excellent fielding teams averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season this season; 23-15 (+16.8 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Houston starter Moehler has been solid posting a 12-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of over the last 2 seasons. Phillies are just 5-11 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season; 9-13 (-15.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season. Tke the Astros.
Sean Murphy
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
With the Nationals winning the first two games of this series, the home team is now 12-5 when these two teams hook up this season. I don't see any reason to buck that trend here as the Mets simply look forward to packing their bags and heading home for their final series of a truly disastrous season.
Since September 8th, the Mets have gone 5-16. They're a miserable 29-51 on the road this season. Yet we're still able to grab some value fading them today, due in large part to the Nationals 54-103 overall record.
We'll give the Nats' a motivational edge today as they play their final home game of the season. For a losing team like this, spots like this matter. They have been playing more competitive baseball lately, going 7-11 over their last 18 games. That can only be considered a step in the right direction at this point of the season.
Give Washington the significant edge on the mound tonight as they send John Lannan to the hill against Tim Redding. Lannan has pitched well over his last three starts, allowing just four earned runs over 19 innings of work. He is actually a winning pitcher here at home, where he is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has faced the Mets four times this season, tossing a pair of complete game shutouts, and allowing a total of just three earned runs over his last 26 innings against them.
Mets starter Tim Redding has had an up and down year. He has allowed exactly one earned run in two of his last four starts, but was tagged for four earned runs in the other two. On the road, Redding is just 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in nine starts. He has been excellent in two starts against the Nats', but I'm not sure it matters how well he pitches today, he's going to need offensive support and I'm not sure that he gets it.
We'll likely see a makeshift Mets lineup given today's early start. Don't be surprised if Carlos Beltran is held out, as has been the case in day games following night games since his return from the D.L.
The Mets have scored only four runs in the first two games of this series and were shut out for the final seven innings of last night's contest. I'll recommend the Nationals as an opinion play on Wednesday. Take Washington.
Ben Burns
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Pedro Martinez gets the call instead of Cliff Lee. That's just fine for Philly fans. Pedro tossed eight shutout innings in his last start here and has a 0.90 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four starts here this season. Moehler with a 5.15 ERA on the season and an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his last three starts overall. Last time out, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up seven runs.
There's more. Martinez is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP vs. the Astros. Moehler is 2-3 with a 6.52 ERA vs. the Phillies. Consider laying the wood.
Dennis Macklin
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Under 7½
The Bums still need a game to clinch the West and are gripping with the bats hitting just .233 and avgg 3.9 rpg in last seven. John Garland is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA in last three, razor sharp. The Padres Clayton Richard has no decisions in last three but still rocks stingy 2.65 ERA. The Under is 8-3 in his eleven home starts. Runs will be tough to come by and the Under rates good look.
Jeff Benton
L.A. Dodgers at SAN DIEGO +120
For Wednesday’s free play on the diamond, I’ll back the Padres at home against Los Angeles.
While San Diego continues to play inspired baseball down the homestretch of the season, the exact opposite holds true for the Dodgers. After losing three of four in Pittsburgh over the weekend – to a Pirates team that had previously lost 23 of its last 26 games! – Los Angeles arrived in San Diego last night and managed just one run against a pitcher making his major-league debut and lost 3-1. That makes the Dodgers 2-5 in their last seven games against three opponents – Padres, Pirates and Nationals – that are combined about a billion games under .500.
As for San Diego, it is 7-3 in its last 10 games and 21-11 in its last 32, and that includes winning series against playoff contenders Atlanta, Florida, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Colorado (twice). Tonight, the Padres are going with left-hander Clayton Richard, who was acquired from the White Sox in the Jake Peavy trade. San Diego is 8-3 in Richard’s 11 starts with San Diego, including 3-0 in his last three outings overall and 5-0 in his five starts at home, where Richard has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
The Dodgers will counter Richard with Jon Garland, who has produced six straight quality starts, including the last five since being traded from Arizona to L.A. However, the Dodgers are just 3-2 when Garland pitches, with both losses coming in his two road starts against terrible teams (the DBacks and Pirates). Also, the last time Garland pitched at Petco Park – on June 8 with Arizona – he got rocked for six runs in 6 2/3 innings, losing 6-3.
Bottom line: There is no love lost between these two regional rivals, so you know the Padres will do everything within their power to keep the Dodgers – whose magic number to clinch the N.L. West is down to one – from celebrating in their house. They kept the champagne on ice yesterday despite having a pitcher on the mound making his big-league debut, and they’ll do it again tonight as they improve to 6-0 at home behind Richard and cash a nice underdog ticket.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Drew Gordon
Oakland at SEATTLE -145
Now on a 62-53 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Oakland/Seattle match up.
It's no secret that the Athletics have had major troubles against the Mariners, going 5-12 against them this season, including just 1-6 at Safeco! Things don't get any easier tonight for a variety of reasons, but let's start with the pitching match up...
The A's rook Clayton Mortensen had one good game at the Twins, but other than that has been below average at best. That includes a loss to this very same Seattle club Sept. 4th, where he allowed 4 runs on 6 hits over 7 innings. What should worry M's-backers more than anything about the kid is his ERA on the road, which balloons to 8.10 in limited action this season.
On the flip side, the Mariners Brandon Morrow has been relatively strong at Safeco, where he's started only 3 games, but has helped the M's to a 2-1 record over that span. His last home start was solid, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings (albeit the 6 walks was ugly). He showed far better command at the Rays in his last one, and if he can keep from giving away too many free passes, he will easily outpitch the rookie here.
Bottom line, the Atheltics may have been hot, but a trip to Safeco has acted as an instant sedative. Oakland has had issues all season against Seattle, and I just don't see that changing with this pitching match up. Also, its clear oddsmakers are going to make you pay a premium to play the M's tonight - almost begging you to take the "red-hot" A's - but I for one am NOT taking the bait. Mariners roll!
Take Seattle behind Morrow over Oakland and Mortensen in this MLB match up.
3♦ SEATTLE
Karl Garrett
Hawaii at LOUISIANA TECH -4'
G-Man smells something fishy in Ruston, Louisiana this Wednesday night!
I have a feeling the linesmakers are luring you into grabbing Hawaii plus the points, but I am not going to do it.
Louisiana Tech has played the tougher competition thus far, and while they were blasted at Auburn, and Navy to start the season, they did rebound nicely in their home opener with a romp of Nicholls State. You can say "Nicholls State?!?!", but that is the type of a win that gets you moving in the right direction, and I think tonight the Bulldogs are poised to a 3-game series slide with the step-up win and cover.
For Hawaii, they are playing their third game in 18 days, and the real problem lies in the fact that this is their third straight game away from the Big Island, as the Warriors were at Washington State on the 12th, and at UNLV last on the 19th.
Now you are asking them to head even further east, and try and fend off a team making a rare prime time home appearence.
I don't see it happening.
Take Tech.
1♦ LOUISIANA TECH