Friday 10/8/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games
Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks
CFB Super Play
Temple Owls
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Alan Scozzari
World Cup 2022 Qualification
Slovakia +0,5 +100
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Pickswise Sports
CFB
2* Cincinnati -29
1* Cincinnati/Temple Over 54
1*Arizona State/Stanford Over 51.5
MLB
2* Astros/White Sox Over 8 [-107]
2* Brewers/Braves Under 7 [-105]
2* Giants/Dodgers Under 7 [-115]
1* Red Sox +120
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Randy Chambers
CFB - Temple +29
MLB - Giants +110
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Chris Ruffolo
MLB - Red Sox +120
CFB - Florida International/Charlotte Under 60.5 [-110]
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Andrew Jett
CFB - Arizona State -13 [-114]
MLB
Astros -123
Braves +137
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Big Al
MLB play on the Brew Crew
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XS Sports Picks Friday
MLB Playoff Results 3-4 (-$520)
NCAA Football 35-27 +$25,670
NCAA:
2 Charlotte -3.5 -110
3 Stanford +13 -110
4 Temple +30 -111
MLB:
5 San Francisco +103
5 Milwaukee -1.5 +145
2 Milwaukee Under 7 -105
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TMTW SPORTS FRIDAY OCTOBER 8TH
NCAA YTD 28-15 (65%) +$40,480
MLB Playoffs 4-0 (100%) +$16,580
NCAA:
5k Cincinnati Under 54.5 -110
4k Arizona State Under 53 -110
MLB:
5k Tampa Bay -140
3k Tampa Bay Under 7.5 -120
2k Chicago WS +108
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World Worst Picker
MLB:
Brewers
Rays
NCAA FOOTBALL:
Stanford
We take:
Braves
Red Sox
Arizona State
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Big AL
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF MONTH
Arizona St -13
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John Bollman
CHI. WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON | 10/08 | 2:07 PM EDT
HOUSTON -115
ANALYSIS: Both these starting pitchers have been very good in the playoffs in their short playoff careers. Lucas Giolito has made just 1 postseason start, but he tossed a 1 run, 7 inning gem last year. Framber Valdez also made his postseason debut last year with no fans, and all he did was pitch at least 5 innings in all four starts without allowing more than 2 ER in any of them. The White Sox had the 5th best wOBA in the league against lefties this season but the Astros had the 4th best wOBA in the league against righties. Valdez faced the White Sox twice this season and allowed 2 ER in one game and 4 ER in the other while pitching 7 and 6.1 innings, respectively. Giolito faced the Astros once this season, and tossed a 1 run complete game, but it was at home. The White Sox are 40-42 now on the road this season including the postseason and they are 27-30 against teams over .500. Take the Astros at home.
ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE | 10/08 | 4:37 PM EDT
ATLANTA +143
ANALYSIS: Both of these teams actually have reverse splits on the season, they both have better records playing on the road. They also both struggled against teams over .500, the Braves were 31-37 while the Brewers were 32-36. However, Corbin Burnes has never made a postseason start, he has made 6 relief appearances though. Charlie Morton has been very good in the playoffs in his career, and he really only has 3 bad playoff appearances in 13 starts. Corbin Burnes has actually been worse at home this season too, going 4-4 with a 2.85 ERA at home. Burnes faced Atlanta once this season and allowed 5 ER in 4 IP. Charlie Morton has been much better on the road going 8-3 with a 3.06 ERA and he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP against the Brewers the only time he faced them this season. This game seems like it should be much closer to 50-50, I am taking the underdog.
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 10/08 | 7:02 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -135
ANALYSIS: Shane Baz is making just his fourth career start although he did pitch well in his first three. Chris Sale will be making just his 8th career postseason appearance and 5th career postseason start so despite being the veteran he doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience. He also has a 5.76 ERA in the postseason. The Rays had the 3rd highest wOBA in the league against lefties since the start of September and they crushed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez early in Thursday’s game. Chris Sale made 3 starts on the road this season and went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. He also faced the Rays twice, pitching a quality start and getting blown up. Sale wasn’t getting deep into games either this season, and the Red Sox bullpen is very questionable while the Rays can just go to theirs whenever they need. The Rays are now 8-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 12 of the last 16 matchups straight up. Take the Rays.
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/08 | 9:37 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -115
ANALYSIS: This is going to be a fun matchup between the two best teams in the league this season with Logan Webb and Walker Buehler facing off. At first glance, I would have been on the Giants as home dogs, but I just can’t pick against Walker Buehler in the playoffs. He is an absolute animal, allowing more than 1 run in a start just once in his last 2 postseasons. He has a 2.35 career postseason ERA, and his last postseason start was a 6 inning, 1 ER, 10 K gem in Game 3 of the World Series. In his last start against the Giants, he allowed 6 ER in 3 IP. However, he faced the Giants four times before that this season, and he pitched at least 6 innings allowing no more than 1 ER in all four of those games. Logan Webb has never made a postseason start and, honestly, before this season he wasn’t even considered a starting rotation option. He has pitched really well this season though including all three times he faced the Dodgers. The playoffs are different though, and the Dodgers will be riding the momentum from their walk-off Wild Card win so I am taking Walker Buehler in what is basically a pick ‘em.
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Matt Snyder
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/08 | 9:37 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +105
ANALYSIS: The Giants won the season series, 10-9. They went 54-27 at home. Starter Logan Webb was 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home this season. And they are underdogs! Well, that's because the Dodgers are loaded and won 106 regular-season games. Starter Walker Buehler might win the Cy Young. He is about one run worse on the road, though (2.05 home ERA vs. 3.08 on the road). Both lineups are compromised with injuries to first basemen Max Muncy and Brandon Belt, so we'll call that a wash. The playoffs turn on big homers a lot and the Giants led the league. It's close, but we'll take the underdog.
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 10/08 | 7:02 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -140
ANALYSIS: The Rays have been absolutely feasting on lefties of late and get Sale in this one. He was mostly good in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he's faltered lately, posting a 5.87 ERA in his last two starts. Rays rookie Shane Baz has made only three career starts but he's looked the part and is facing a compromised Red Sox lineup. Plus, the Rays' deep bullpen has only throw four innings since Sunday. Kevin Cash will get what he needs from Baz and then go into mixing and matching mode. The Rays are the far superior team here and will prove it again.
ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE | 10/08 | 4:37 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -153
ANALYSIS: No pitcher was better on a rate basis this season than Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. He was actually hit pretty hard the last time he saw the Braves, but the Brewers still won. As they did a bunch when he pitched. After the All-Star break, Burnes made 13 starts. The Brewers won 12 of them. The only loss came in his last start, which was only a two-inning outing against the Dodgers. Morton was good this year and I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, but the Braves lost five of his last eight starts and I like Burnes to be more dominant.
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Larry Hartstein
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/08 | 9:37 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +105
ANALYSIS: Logan Webb is 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home, and he went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts vs. the Dodgers this season. LA posted a .127 on-base average against him. The Giants have won 10 of his last 11 starts. Walker Buehler is even more dominant, but he struggled in his last start at Oracle Park, giving up six runs on seven hits in three innings. The Giants went 54-27 at home and continue to be undervalued.
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Micah Roberts
CHARLOTTE @ FIU | 10/08 | 7:00 PM EDT
CHARLOTTE -170
ANALYSIS: Florida International coach Butch Davis changed both coordinators after going 0-5 last season and things haven’t improved much. New QB Max Bortenschlager is hitting only 54 percent of his passes and the defense is allowing 502 ypg. Its lone win came against Long Island. Charlotte has its act together with a balanced offense and started the season by winning against Duke. Take Charlotte to win.
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/08 | 9:37 PM EDT
OVER 7
ANALYSIS: Giants pitcher Logan Webb beat the Dodgers twice in July, back-to-back in a home and away. Both were against Julio Urias, who rarely loses and won 20 games himself. The Giants are 12-0 behind Webb at home this season. Also, Webb’s +17.5 units won this season was the most among all starters. His last six starts have gone Over. The Over is the best play Friday.
ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE | 10/08 | 4:37 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -140
ANALYSIS: The Braves come into the playoffs red hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. They had teams like the Philadelphia and the New York Mets chasing them in the NL East, so it was like playoff baseball for them after they finally got over .500 for the first time on Aug. 6. Players acquired in trades to make up for the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) paid off. The Brewers found themselves being bored down the stretch after leading the NL Central for 137 straight days. No one truly threatened them, but they finished the regular season having lost 10 of their last 14 against teams such as St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can they simply flip the switch in the postseason? I'm on the Brewers in Game 1 because of the dominance of RHP Corbin Burnes, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. While Milwaukee was sluggish in September, Burnes was still a dominant force. They won 12 straight games behind him before he worked only two innings in his last start, an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers.
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August Young
#916 Houston Astros -120 over Chicago White Sox (Giolito/Valdez)
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Goodfella
1 White Sox
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Advanced Sports Data
Stanford +13
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Brian Bitler
10* MLB Friday No Sweat Winner
Brewers
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Nelly's Sports
Game 1 NL Total Delivery 24-10 RUN
Over in Atlanta/Brewers
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ASA Inc
10* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK
Dodgers
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Jack Winningham
Tampa Bay Rays -136 over the Boston Red Sox
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Northcoast Late Phones
3* Stanford +13-
Top Opinion Marquee Over 60.5 Charlotte/FIU
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Elite Sports Picks
Atlanta (Morton)/Milwaukee (Burnes) UNDER 7
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Insider Sports Report
4* L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -120 over San Francisco (Webb)
Range: -105 to -145
3* Temple +29 over Cincinnati (NCAAF)
Range: +30.5 to +26.5
3* Charlotte/Florida International UNDER 60.5 (NCAAF)
Range: 62 to 58
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National Sports Service
4* Stanford +13 over Arizona St. (NCAAF)
3* Atlanta (Morton) +135 over Milwaukee (Burnes)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 10/08/21
5 Unit --> L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -120 over San Francisco (Webb)
3 Unit --> Milwaukee (Burnes) -150 over Atlanta (Morton)
3 Unit --> Temple/Cincinnati OVER 54 (NCAAF)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 10/08/21
4★ Temple +29 over Cincinnati (NCAAF)
3★ Atlanta (Morton)/Milwaukee (Burnes) OVER 7
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Andrew McInnis
4% Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants +106 W Buehler (RHP), L Webb (RHP) Must Start
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #919/920 Braves/Brewers under 7
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WUnderdog
MLB
Atlanta +146 @ milwaukee
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