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(@shazman)
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Friday 8/20/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games

 
Posted : August 20, 2021 10:48 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 58677
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Top Flight Sports

WFT -4.5 **5u max**
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ADAM TRIGGER

Game: (405) Cincinnati Bengals at (406) Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Football Team -4.5 (-110)

Washington (8PM ET NFL Network) – The Broncos jumped ahead and never looked back as they hammered the Vikings 33-6 to give us a split on our Week 1 NFL Preseason plays. I expect to be more active in Week 2 and Week 3 now that I’ve gotten a chance to see each team play once and I’m going to lock in my first move of NFLX Week 2 and up this one to a 5% MAX BET when the Washington Football Team host the Cincinnati Bengals at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland.

Washington was the team I lost within my 1-1 split of NFLX Week 1 but a lot of that had to do with the Patriots second unit being way better than I expected and, even with everything that transpired, Washington was a dropped 2 point conversion away from having a great chance to get out with a tie (push) in that game. The Bengals 2’s and 3’s aren’t close to as good as the Patriots and we are going to see starters play more here which gives a huge advantage to Washington. I also think Washington will benefit from the starters getting extended time as Washington led the Patriots at halftime and would have been up more had Dustin Hopkins been able to make a field goal. Cincinnati was impressive in their Week 1 win over the Bucs but it was their second unit that did the damage against a Bucs team that barely played their notable players and was clearly uninterested in that game. I think we are going to see Week 2 and 3 play out more like real games, in a real game Washington hammers this Bengals team and I think winning by five or more is likely for the Football Team here.

The most notable absentee for Cincinnati in Week 1 was quarterback Joe Burrow and I’ll be shocked if he steps on the field here. If Burrow does play it won’t be for more than a series so it’s going to be Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmur against a Washington 1st and 2nd team defense that will be far tougher than facing the Bucs backups like they did last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting quarterback for Washington this season but he should play more than he did in Week 1 and behind him is a very capable backup in Taylor Heinicke that started the playoff game for Washington last season. Heinicke is my favorite type of quarterback to back in NFLX because he will be in against the Bengals reserves and he’s a scrappy playmaker that will get outside the pocket and make something out of nothing. Teams tend to run vanilla offense in the preseason so a quarterback that is a little creative and can make plays goes a long way. Behind Heinicke is Steven Montez who struggled in his first couple series against the Patriots but settled in and led a touchdown drive that, had the 2-point attempt not been dropped, would have tied the game. The Bengals reserve defense should be far easier for Montez to navigate and leading that touchdown drive should give Montez the confidence he lacked at the beginning of his shift in New England last week. Washington is the more complete team here, they have an advantage top to bottom at the quarterback position and I think the loss to the Patriots compels Washington to take this one more seriously which should be enough to have Washington see out this win.

I typically won't lay points in NFL preseason games but I’ve got Washington favored in the 6-7 point range so I’ll make an exception here. I’m sky high on Washington this season, I think Football Team is going to win the NFC East and take a step forward from last season where they backed into the playoffs by default. Washington has a Top 5 defense in the league and there’s depth which, of course, is integral to success in the preseason. Cincinnati is -360 to finish in last place in the AFC North and I’ve seen their season win total anywhere from 5.5 to 6.5 wins so even on the high end the Bengals are likely a bottom feeder again this season and worth opposing off of a fluke win now that they will have to deal with a far better first team for an extended period of time in this game.

Finally, Tampa Bay probably comes back and wins last week if Kyle Trask isn’t dreadful in the 4th quarter so I think that result has a lot more to do with how poorly the Bucs 2’s and 3’s played than it does Cincinnati actually being any good. Washington played fine but lost on the road to what looks to be a very deep Patriots team. This is a step down for Washington, it’s in D.C. and I think Football Team rolls by a lot more than the number.
Play on Washington -4.5 for 5% (or 5 units)
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Cal Sports NFL
4% KC ML
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JM SPORTS

Game: (403) Kansas City Chiefs at (404) Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -152

Money LIne 4 units KC -152 Arizona Friday 8 PM ET on Espn
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Matt Severance

ARIZONA @ COLORADO | 08/20 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -160
ANALYSIS: These teams are equally putrid on the road -- literally the same record away -- but Colorado is a monster at home. It also was off Thursday, while Arizona had to use closer Taylor Clarke for 26 pitches to hold off the Phillies, so he's probably out. Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.70 home ERA. He's countered by Mr. Shocking No-Hitter Tyler Gilbert. Tend to think things will go a tad differently in his second big-league start -- first start after no-hitters, many pitchers really struggle because of that previous high pitch count -- and first in Denver.
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Elite Sports Picks

L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -1.5 runs -140 over N.Y. Mets (Carrasco)
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Insider Sports Report

4* Atlanta (Fried) -1.5 runs -140 over Baltimore (Akin)
Range: -125 to -165

3* Chicago White Sox (Giolito) -115 over Tampa Bay (Wacha)
Range: +100 to -140

3* Cincinnati/Washington UNDER 35 (NFL)
Range: 37 to 33
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National Sports Service

4* Oakland (Kaprielian) -115 over San Francisco (Wood)

3* Kansas City -3 over Arizona (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 08/20/21

5 Unit --> Chicago White Sox (Giolito) -115 over Tampa Bay (Wacha)

3 Unit --> Kansas City/Arizona OVER 41 (NFL)

3 Unit --> Arizona (Gilbert) +145 over Colorado (Gombert)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 08/20/21

4★ Atlanta (Fried) -1.5 runs -140 over Baltimore (Akin)

3★ Arizona +3 over Arizona (NFL)
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Mariners. Season record now 71-67.

Friday's play (10 units) is on the Cubs.
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Scott Spreitzer
Redskins -5.5 (3U)
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Totals 4 U

2021 NFL Preseason Week 2 Watch & Win Total of the Year!!!!!

Kansas City/Arizona under 41

NFL Football Bonus Winners

Cincinnati/Washington under 35
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JM SPORT

Game: (979) San Francisco Giants at (980) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: San Francisco Giants +101 A Wood (LHP), J Kaprielian (RHP) Must Start

4 unit San Fransisco Giants (+101) over Oakland Athletics (Wood/Kaprielian) –
JM100 - use this code to get $100 off a 30-day all-access pass (which includes 30 days of MLB, NFL, & CFB)!
I am surprised this line came out where it did, I would have bet SF as a favorite in this game! They are sitting at almost 65% winning percentage TY & 60% on the road. Alex Wood on the mound for San Fran may have a 4.14 ERA but he sits at a record of 10-3 with the runs SF can put up. Wood is 3-0 in his L7 starts, on the road he is 3-1 in his 8 starts away from home, 6-3 w/ 4.18 ERA in 13 night starts. and he is 2-0 in his 6 starts after the AASB (with the team going 5-1, including 5-0 in the L5). The Giants offense has definitely backed up Wood this year, they are 15-6 in his 21 starts, including 4-0 in the L4 as an AF, 14-3 as a F (including 10 out of L11 & 8 in a row), they are 15-3 in his starts vs. RHP, and 14-1 vs. RHP w/ ERA > 3.00 (13-0 w/ a line -170). While Oakland is throwing Kaprielian, who has had an ERA of 6.32 in the L3 starts and the Athletics are 1-3 in his L4 night starts. The Athletics have struggled vs. left handed pitching as well they are 6-10 @ H vs. LHP w/ a line > -175 (including 4-8 in NDIV games, and 6 out of the L7), they are 1-6 in the L7 in the opening game of a series vs. LHP (including 0-6 when the line is > -200), they are 2-5 in the L7 in the first game of a series vs. non-divisional opponents. With the stats Wood has, you may not expect what you are getting, but even with his stat line it looks like the Athletics could struggle, they are 3-7 in the L10 vs. a LHP w/ a WHIP < 1.25 and a line ≥ -120 (including a 2-5 record when the line is also 4.00 (including 1-5 vs. WHIP -150 and they are 0-3 w/o a day of rest and the opposing team coming off a day of rest.
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JOSEPH D'AMICO

Game: (403) Kansas City Chiefs at (404) Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Arizona Cardinals +3.0 (-115)

Both the Chiefs and the Cardinals won their NFL preseason openers. Kansas City is once again the top forecasted team to represent the AFC in February. Last season the Chiefs finished the regular season at 14-2 then ran through the Browns in the Division Playoff and the Bills in the Conference Championship. We don’t have to rehash it, but to say they were embarrassed by the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl is an understatement.
They came out and bested a highly-touted 49ers team last week, 19-16, earning the outright win. They did what they needed to do, which was to give their fans something to cheer about. If this was a regular-season matchup, I would look at this contest very differently. But, this is preseason football.
After Patrick Mahomes, their quarterback corps isn’t all that impressive. And let’s face it, as a team touted at 5/1 to win the 2022 Super Bowl, they are not going to jeopardize their playmakers too long in just Game 2 of the preseason.
Not too much is expected of Arizona this year. The Cardinals are picked to be last in the NFC West and most likely finish the campaign at 8-8. However, this is a team loaded with talent and not just at key starting roles. They also consist of some big names trying to make the No.2 and No.3 spots. Unlike KC (74 YR), ‘Zona did establish the run (168 YR) in their 19-16 win and cover against Dallas a week ago. They are looking to give their fans something to be excited about and contending and winning against this foe will do just that.
The Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is not known to put forth too much effort in August, donning a 7-9 mark both SU and ATS the last four preseasons. Take the Cardinals +3. Thank you.
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Posted : August 20, 2021 11:22 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 58677
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Pickswise Sports

MLB 3* Best Bets
Blue Jays -1.5 runs [-137]
Pirates/Cardinals Over 8.5 [-115]

XNFL
2* Bengals +5.5
2* Cardinals/Chiefs Under 41
1* Cardinals +3.5

Soccer ⚽️ MLS - Double Chance Pick
2* San Jose - Win or Tie [+105]
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Matt Severance

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TAMPA BAY | 08/20 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +1.5
ANALYSIS: I'm a White Sox fan so I hope they win (and probably would go to one of these games if the Trop wasn't such a dump and in an out-of-the-way location), but the Pale Hose are basically a .500 team on the road and the Rays are an absolute juggernaut at home. Yes, Tampa starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been pretty bad lately as Larry Hartstein mentioned on Early Edge in playing a Wacha Under prop, but the Rays have a very deep bullpen and I'm guessing Wacha has an incredibly short leash. On the flip side, the White Sox's Lucas Giolito has been wildly inconsistent. Frankly, whichever team was the underdog I would have taken at +1.5 in this one. Rays it is at -150.

KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 08/20 | 2:20 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: I didn't like backing the Royals as outright moneyline favorites but also didn't like backing the Cubs as ML underdogs or at +1.5 at a big price. This ML has now flipped to where Chicago is favored so now I rather like Royals +1.5. I'm just not sure that Cubs lineup is good enough to win many games by more than one run and Kansas City may well win outright despite losing the DH. KC starter Brad Keller was awful to begin this year but has pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last seven starts and has a 3.83 ERA in those. Chicago's Zach Davies has a 5.18 home ERA.

MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/20 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
ANALYSIS: I generally don't tail other cappers here at SportsLine as like to make up my own mind, but scarily enough Justin Perri made great points on Early Edge (maybe I'll play the lottery today!) about the Yankees RL against the Twins tonight so I'll get on board. Minnesota rookie lefty Charlie Barnes probably will be a bit intimidated in his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium, and he was roughed up in his lone road start so far (Cincinnati). On the flip side, Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. continues to surprise and has a 1.45 home ERA.
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Action Network 8/20

These only win about 50% but are almost always big dogs That is how they turn a profit.These aren't for those looking for a high % win rate
MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Reds

Sharp Action

The line for Marlins vs. Reds opened up at Marlins +175 before hitting a low of +170 around 10 a.m. ET.
The moneyline has settled at a consensus of Marlins +165 as tracked by one bet signal.
Big Money

At the time of this writing, the 23% of bettors backing the Marlins have generated 44% of the money wagered on Friday’s matchup.
Top Experts

One of The Action Network’s top MLB experts is betting on the Miami Marlins.

PRO Report Pick: Marlins +165
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Matt Snyder

MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/20 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
ANALYSIS: We won with the Yankees on the -1.5 run line last night, so why not run it back? Stick with what works! They've won seven in a row with six of those wins coming by at least two runs. Starter Nestor Cortes has been very good most of the year and shut down the White Sox (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K) last time out. He has a 1.45 ERA in Yankee Stadium this year, too. Twins lefty Charlie Barnes was shelled in his only other career road start and the Yankees' beefy offense (using Luke Voit, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo together) is a tall order.

ARIZONA @ COLORADO | 08/20 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -190
ANALYSIS: The only teams in all of baseball with a better home record than the Rockies are the Giants and Dodgers. That's it. The Rockies have won seven in a row and nine of their last 10 at home. They were off Thursday and didn't even have to travel. Austin Gomber returns from the paternity list and while he got hit hard last time out, he's 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA at home. Diamondbacks starter Tyler Gilbert threw a no-hitter last time out in his first career start. He's about to learn was big-league regression is like.
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Kyle Akins

WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 08/20 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -195
ANALYSIS: After a post deadline slump, Washington has shown life the past two games driven by its offense. Facing Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson today, Washington avoids the Brewers' top starters and should benefit from Anderson pitching to contact this year. Washington also has the hidden benefit of having been off yesterday while Milwaukee played and lost to St. Louis, 8-4. Rested teams against teams with no rest are 77-63 this season.
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Stevewins

Friday Night
2 Team Parlay

Bengals ML +185
Chiefs ML - 167
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The Prez

4% - St Louis Cardinals RL, Action
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Adam Trigger

Orioles Braves over 10 (4u)
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Posted : August 20, 2021 1:46 pm
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Justin Perri

KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 08/20 | 2:20 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: I'll grab the Under for the day game today. Royals hitters are pretty bad on the road and especially against righthanded pitching. They face Zach Davies, who has a 2.85 ERA in day games compared to 6.10 at night. Davies also has done decently against weaker teams, which the Royals certainly are. The Cubs offense has been low-scoring over the last few weeks, and I think that even Brad Keller can keep Chicago in check. The total has gone Under in six of the last eight Royals road games and 16 of their last 24 games overall. The total has also gone Under seven of the last nine times these teams have met.

 
Posted : August 20, 2021 2:07 pm
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