Monday 10/11/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games.
Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks:
NFL Monday Night 18-0 ATS Key Play....Ravens
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Alan Scozzari
World Cup 2022 Qualification
Cyprus -0,5 -120
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macinibet eu
World Cup - Qualification
Rümania - Armenia
Rümania -1
Odds : 2.00
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greenpunter us
Baltimore Ravens – Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +7
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pep-firsthalf
EUROPE: World Cup – Qualification
Cyprus – Malta
First Half : X
Odds : 2.00
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SportsLine Projection Model
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS | 10/11 | 8:15 P.M. ET
Against the Spread
Pick: Ravens -7
Baltimore is covering in 53 percent of simulations.
Over-Under
Pick: Over 46
The over hits in 47 percent of simulations, bringing value at these odds.
Money Line
Pick: Colts +260
The Colts are winning in 28 percent of simulations, bringing value at those odds.
Projected final score: Ravens 28, Colts 18
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Atlanta Braves -110
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Marty’s mlb total of the year
astros/chisox under 9
brewers +102
brewers over 8
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Steve Cash
TIP OF THE DAY:*UNDER TOTAL A WAGER World Cup 2022 Qualification Belarus - Czech Republic UNDER 2,5 +110
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TMTW SPORTS
MLB Playoffs 6-5 (55%) +$1,940
4K Giants +1.5 -125
4K Brewers Over 8 -105
2K Rays Over 9.5 +105
NFL YTD 21-14 (60%) +$10,080
3k Baltimore -7 -107
NFL Props:
2k M. Alie-Cox Over 1.5 Receptions -135
2k Jonathan Taylor (RB) Over 12.5 Receiving Yards -115
2k Latavius Murry (RB) Over 50.5 Rushing Yards -115
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XS Sports Picks Monday
Playoff Results 8-5 (62% Winners) +$14,280
5 Atlanta -115
5 Houston +110
3 Boston Over 9.5 +100
3 San Francisco +172
3 San Francisco Over 7.5 +100
NFL Sunday 4-0 +$17,810 (100% Winners)
YTD NFL 24-18 +$36,260 (57% Winners)
4 Baltimore FH -4.5 -105
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 10/11 | 1:07 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Guess I understand why Atlanta is favored at home as Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58) is a fine pitcher, but the Brewers were actually better away from home and Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81) had a better year than Anderson did. Peralta threw six shutout innings in his lone start vs. Atlanta. Milwaukee is 9-3 in its past 12 following an off day. We'll take the runline.
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
4* #957/958 Giants/Dodgers OVER 7.5
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John Bollman
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 10/11 | 1:07 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -104
ANALYSIS: The Brewers bats would have put up 18 scoreless innings if it weren’t for a late home run by Rowdy Tellez in Game 1. However, I think they finally put it together today. Freddy Peralta has only made two postseason appearances, but he pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Braves earlier this season, although that was before the trade deadline. Ian Anderson has made 4 postseason starts and he has pitched well in all four. I think this will end up coming down to the bullpens so I will take the Brewers because of that reason.
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 10/11 | 7:07 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -103
ANALYSIS: I was all over the Rays to start the playoffs so I can’t give up on them now. Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, and Nathan Eovaldi have been the best 3 pitchers this series but all 3 should be unavailable for the Red Sox for tonight’s game. Eduardo Rodriguez was hit hard in Game 1 by the Rays and the Rays have been absolutely lighting up left-handed pitching lately. The Rays won 100 games in the regular season and scored the most runs in the league, they won’t go down easy. I think the Red Sox will have a good chance in Game 5 once they get those three pitchers available, but I think the Rays win today with a bullpen game against what would probably be some combination of Rodriguez and Sale.
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 10/11 | 9:37 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +183
ANALYSIS: Sure, Max Scherzer is starting at home and the Dodgers just put up 9 runs, but do we really think they are -200 favorites in a playoff game? The Giants not only beat the Dodgers in their season series going 6-4 in Los Angeles, but they also had more regular season wins. The Giants have a very good bullpen, and they can piece together some outs while we saw Max Scherzer not at his best in the Wild Card game. This game should be much closer to 50-50, take the value on the Giants.
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Elite Sports Picks
L.A. Dodgers (Scherzer) -210 over San Francisco (Wood)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Indianapolis/Baltimore UNDER 46 (NFL)
Range: 48 to 44
3* Atlanta (Anderson) -120 over Milwaukee (Peralta)
Range: +100 to -140
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National Sports Service
4* Milwaukee (Peralta)/Atlanta (Anderson) OVER 8
3* Indianapolis +7 over Baltimore (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 10/11/21
4 Unit --> Baltimore -7 over Indianapolis (NFL)
3 Unit --> San Francisco (Wood) -1.5 runs -125 over L.A. Dodgers (Scherzer)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 10/11/21
4★ Indainapolis/Baltimore UNDER 46 (NFL)
3★ Milwaukee (Peralta) +105 over Atlanta (Anderson)
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The Prez
4% white Sox
4% over 9.5 Rays/Red Sox
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Northcoast
2* Baltimore -7
Top Opinion Monday Marquee Under 46- Indy/Balt
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Advanced Sports
IND/BAL Under
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Pickswise Sports
MLB
2* White Sox -130
1* Rays +105
NFL
1* Ravens -6.5 (-120)
1* Under 46.5
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Randy Chambers
NFL
Ravens -6.5
MLB
Red Sox -115
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Chris Ruffolo
MLB - Dodgers/Giants Under 7.5
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MLB
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox
POSTPONED
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August Young
*2 Boston Red Sox -110
*2 Boston Red Sox +1.5, RL, -170
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Tom Stryker
49-16 ATS NFL MONDAY NIGHT SUPER SYSTEM
Ravens
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GoodFella
3* DOMINATOR GAME OF THE MONTH
Dodgers ML
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Godfatherlocks october 11th picks
massive 5000 unit picks
#1 - baltimore ravens -7 (nfl)
#2 - milwaukee brewers +100 (mlb)
#3 - chicago white sox -125 (mlb) Postpponed
#4 - boston red sox -110 (mlb)
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Andrew McInnis
3%
Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tigercats
Toronto Argonauts +5.5 (-110)
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Cash Pomer
5 units Indy +7.5
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Bob Balfe
TB/Boston O9
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Marco D'Angelo
Indy +7.5
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Steve Merril
Baltimore -7
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Leaderboard in CircaMillions Contest
Consensus
Indy +7
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R.J. White
FEATURED PICK
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE | 10/11 | 8:15 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -7
ANALYSIS: The Ravens defense comes into this game on a roll after forcing the Broncos to punt 10 times on their first 11 drives last week, and I expect them to have a lot of success getting after Carson Wentz with their blitz-heavy scheme. The Colts are playing a third straight road game but don't have the pressure of looking for their first win after emerging victorious against the Dolphins, but that result had as much to do with the Dolphins being unable to block for Jacoby Brissett as anything. If not for a punting mishap by the Rams, the Colts would've opened the year with three straight games losing by more than a TD. They could certainly do the same against a strong opponent here.
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Matt Severance
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE | 10/11 | 8:15 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -7
ANALYSIS: Well, this clearly isn't going to drop under 7 so Ravens it is even with the decent possibility of a push -- I'll be doing an alternate line of Baltimore -6.5. The Ravens have been money under John Harbaugh in prime-time games, especially at home. The Colts are down five starters in receiver TY Hilton, offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, and defenders Kwity Paye and Rock Ya-Sin. Maybe they can beat the awful Dolphins without those guys but not the Ravens in Baltimore.
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 10/11 | 7:07 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +1.5
ANALYSIS: Still can't believe I lost on the Tampa Bay runline in Game 3 with that BS call on the Rays in the top of the 13th that cost a run and then a walk-off two-run homer by Boston in the bottom of the inning. Here I figured extra innings was safe on runlines again with that runner on second base rule scratched. Well, I'm going back to it again on the Rays. They knocked around Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez in Game 1, while Collin McHugh will open for Tampa but only pitch one time through the order at most. McHugh has been fantastic as an opener this year so Tampa has a good chance of getting the lead early. The Rays are in better bullpen shape overall as well.
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Matt Snyder
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 10/11 | 9:37 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +183
ANALYSIS: Is this just a hunch? Maybe. The Giants have defied odds all season, so why not one more time? Max Scherzer wasn't good in his last two regular season starts and had bad command issues in the wild card game. He's 37 years old with a ton of mileage on that arm. I'm not sure he gets hit hard, but I don't like him to last long. Ditto for Alex Wood, who is very effective the first time through an order but starts to get hit shortly thereafter. I trust the Giants' bullpen slightly more, so we'll roll the dice here with the big value. Late-inning magic for the Giants takes this.
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 10/11 | 7:07 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +101
ANALYSIS: After a crazy Game 3, it's easy to believe the pitching staff of both teams is compromised, but the Red Sox are in worse shape. The Rays absolutely crush lefties and the three most effective right-handed arms capable of getting length this series -- Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Houck -- for the Red Sox are unavailable for this one. They are starting a lefty, too, hoping that he can get some distance. Rays starter Collin McHugh has been brilliant this season and has a 0.75 ERA in five outings against the Red Sox. He can give them three innings before the likes of Kittredge, Fairbanks, Wisler and Feyereisen bring it home. It won't likely be low-scoring, but the Rays are better suited with pitching here.
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Kyle Akins
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 10/11 | 9:37 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer has seen plenty of lower-total games this season, and those have ended up quite low-scoring. Scherzer is 2-14 OU since Apr. 11 in games where the total is Under 8. His teams have allowed an average of two runs per contest in those starts. Having a rested bullpen with Sunday's off-day should be a huge factor for both teams, especially Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 0-11 OU since July 27 when playing with rest.
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Emory Hunt
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE | 10/11 | 8:15 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -7
ANALYSIS: Colts QB Carson Wentz looks like a player who still is dealing with ankle issues and is a shell of his former self. Wentz does not have the ability to evade the downward pressure he'll see from the Ravens all game long. Offensively, Baltimore appears to be hitting its stride as a chunk-play offense once again, which doesn't bode well for the rest of the league.
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Justin Perri
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 10/11 | 7:07 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +101
ANALYSIS: Boston got a big boost in Game 3 from some controversial calls, and we'll never know what would have happened if the game was called differently. I would imagine the Rays feel a bit robbed of a fair chance and will come out determined to force a Game 5 at home. Tampa Bay typically has done well in bullpen games this season, and it already has knocked around Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. I expect this to be a good game, but it likely will come down to pitching. Boston figures to rest its best arms, and I think that makes the difference. Take the American League-favorite Rays to even up the series.
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SportsLine Computer
Go Over (-115) on Lamar Jackson total passing yards (228.5)
The model is projecting 255
Go Over (-115) on Jonathan Taylor total rushing yards (59.5)
The model is projecting 70
Go Over (-115) on Marquise Brown total receiving yards (55.5)
The model is projecting 73
Go Under (-115) on Carson Wentz on total passing yards (224.5)
The model is projecting 208
Go Over (+100) on Lamar Jackson passing attempts (27.5)
The model is projecting 32
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Smart Money Plays
Indianapolis Colts +7.5 -120 (3u, 8e)
Boston Red Sox -107 (5u, 7e)
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Baltimore
Red Sox
We take
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
He lost all 3 yesterday fade was 3-0
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Bondi
3* Baltimore
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