Monday 10/26/20 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NFL & NCAAF
Hank Goldberg
UNDER 45
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
3:15 PM
The Bears' defense is really good and neither team is explosive offensively. The last two meetings have been very low-scoring, and this will be no different. Go Under.
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Stats Analytics Sports
Week #7 2* Play
Chicago Bears/Los Angeles Rams Over 45
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R.J. White
UNDER 45
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:29 PM
I don't trust the Bears offense, but their defense has been keeping them in games all year and is the primary driver of their 5-1 SU record. The Rams offense has struggled in two of its last three games, but their defense has been excellent this season as well. So this is a matchup of two teams whose defenses we should trust far more than their offenses, and both are coming into this one on a streak of three games that have featured final scores of 40 points or less. Seems like a great spot to take the Under, especially if we can back it up with a potential push on the key number of 45.
14-7 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +640
3-0 IN LAST 3 CHI O/U PICKS | +300
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Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
TUE 10/20
CHICAGO +5.5
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
Chicago is 5-1 and has won games in a variety of ways. What has been the constant theme for the Bear has been the play of their defense. Despite the inconsistent offensive efforts, the defense has done a great job of both harassing QBs and turning the ball over. This week they face a QB in Jared Goff who doesn't perform well vs pressure, and that alone will give the Bears a shot to win.
19-9 IN LAST 28 NFL ATS PICKS | +925
18-13-2 IN LAST 33 LAR ATS PICKS | +373
5-4 IN LAST 9 CHI ATS PICKS | +66
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Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 4:14 PM
CHICAGO +6
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Bears win ugly seemingly every week, but they still win (3-0 on road). The Rams are 4-0 against the NFC East, whose teams are 5-17-1 combined in 2020, and 0-2 against everyone else. I’m on the Bears.
8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +300
5-2 IN LAST 7 CHI ATS PICKS | +279
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
12:47 AM
CHICAGO +6
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
This is a big number considering the Rams haven't beaten anyone outside the NFC East. The Bears will keep it close thanks to their elite defense, which will rattle Jared Goff. Back Chicago to improve to 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday night games.
19-10 IN LAST 29 LAR ATS PICKS | +776
6-1 IN LAST 7 CHI ATS PICKS | +490
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Midwest NFL Handicapping
CHI +6
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Ryan Dunleavy Sports (NFL Monday Night Football) - Best Bet Chicago Bears +6
NFL record 17-3 Overall
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Mike Missanelli (NFL) - Rams -6
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Brian Bitler
10* Rans-Bears under 45
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Tom Stryker
L.A. Rams
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Marc Lawrence
100% Perfect Situation Monday Night Magic Play!
Chicago Bears
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Marco D'Angelo
3% Rams -6
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The PREZ MNF 5% GAME of the MONTH
Game: (475) Chicago Bears at (476) Los Angeles Rams
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 45.5 (-110)
Play UNDER the TOTAL of 45.5 (play good to 43)
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Warren Sharp
LA Rams first half Under 23 -115 (0.5 units)
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Scott Kellen
Bears/Rams Under 45
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Bobby Ligs
Game: (475) Chicago Bears at (476) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Oct 26 2020 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Bears +6.0 (-115)
4% play +4 or better
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Elite Sports Picks
L.A. Rams -6 over Chicago (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* L.A. Rams -6 over Chicago (NFL)
Range: -4 to -8
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National Sports Service
4* Chicago/L.A. Rams UNDER 44.5 (NFL)
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MEMBER PICKS
Primetime Sports Picks For 10/26/20
4 Unit --> Chicago/L.A. Rams OVER 44.5 (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 10/26/20
4★ Chicago +6 over L.A. Rams (NFL)
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
TUE 10/20
CHICAGO +5.5
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Rams are 4-2, but all four wins came against the NFC (L)East. Their schedule means they haven't had to play many tough defenses, but now the Rams are up against one of the best in the league in this matchup. The Bears are 5-1 completely on the strength of their defense, which ranks fifth in points allowed per drive and DVOA, second in third-down success rate and first in red-zone success rate. Chicago will be able to keep the scoring in this game low, so even though I don't expect the Bears to score a ton of points themselves with their struggling offense, they should keep the Rams from building a big lead in this matchup. Take the points at this number.
17-6-1 IN LAST 24 NFL ATS PICKS | +1035
31-13-1 IN LAST 45 LAR ATS PICKS | +1636
30-17-1 IN LAST 48 CHI ATS PICKS | +1162
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Matt Blunt
Rams/Bears Over 44.5
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Kevin Rogers
Los Angeles Rams -6
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Wayne Root
Millionaire- LA RAMS
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Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
1:45 PM
UNDER 44.5
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Bears come into this matchup with the eighth ranked defense in the NFL, allowing 337 yards per game. The Rams have been even better, ranking sixth at 318 yards per game. Chicago allows just 19.3 points per game and Los Angeles allows 19. Aaron Donald leads the NFC with 7.5 sacks. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in rushing, while the Rams are eighth. Both teams will try to establish the run and short passing games. The Under is 4-2 for both teams. The Under is 10-1 in Chicago’s last 11 games following an ATS win. The Under is 6-0 in Los Angeles’ last six games in October and 5-0 in the Rams’ last five games in Week 7.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +190
Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
1:15 PM
CHICAGO +6
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Bears have just one loss on the season, to the Colts, but they do have a good win over the Buccaneers. The Rams have played a tougher schedule to date with losses to the 49ers and the Bills. Nick Foles is 2-1 as a starter and has kept his team in just about every game. Foles will have to get the ball out quickly and not turn it over if the Bears are going to have a chance to win this game. Los Angeles is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 Monday night games, while Chicago has covered in four straight Monday nighters. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
19-13 IN LAST 32 NFL ATS PICKS | +490
4-2 IN LAST 6 LAR ATS PICKS | +190
Mike McClure
MONEY
12:54 PM
CHICAGO +6
CHICAGO @ L.A. RAMS | 10/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Rams are getting too much respect after going 4-0 against the NFC East. I make the Rams -1.8 on a neutral site and -3.7 in a 2020 "home" game. I don't think the Bears are as strong as their 5-1 record, but this line should be +4 instead of +6. Take the points.
9-8 LAST 17 NFL SIDES | +10
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 LAR ATS PICKS | +190
3-1 IN LAST 4 CHI ATS PICKS | +190
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Joey Spikes
Bankroll Builder
50 Dime Selection
OVER 44.5 Bears/Rams
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Paul Leiner
2000* rams -6
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Ben Burns:
Rams -5.5 GOW
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John Ryan
5% NFL Game of the Month
Chicago Bears +6
The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.
My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.
The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.
The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.
The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.
Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.
Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.
From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.
Take the Bears and the points.
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Adam Chernoff Bears/Rams O44'
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Bears
We take
Rams
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Charliessports
rams -6 1/2
over 44
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MidAmerican Sports
Chicago Bears +6
Chicago Bears/Los Angeles Rams Under 44.5
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H&H Sports
Triple Dime Los Angeles Rams -6
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The 'R' Factor
Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears Over 44.5
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Razor Sharp Picks
3* Chicago Bears/Los Angeles Rams Over 44.5
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ATS not lock club
Under
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Mississippi Kid
Rams -6 1U
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