Monday 8/16/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games.
Igor Mello
Chapecoense vs. America MG
Draw +210
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Martin Green
Villarreal vs. Granada
Villarreal to win -187 (1 unit)
Both teams to score -105 (1 unit)
Villarreal to win and 2 or more goals in match -118 (0.5 unit)
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Stephen Oh
Twins -130
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Martin Green
Villarreal vs. Granada
Villarreal to win -187 (1 unit)
Both teams to score -105 (1 unit)
Villarreal to win and 2 or more goals in match -118 (0.5 unit)
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Alan Scozzari Sport
Guaranteed A WAGER
Spain LaLiga
Villarreal -1 +110
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teamronaldinho
SPAIN : LaLiga
Villarreal v Granada
Villarreal Over 1,5 @ 2.00
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james-martingale
Spanish La Liga
Elche – Ath Bilbao
Second Half : Over 1.5 Goals
Odds : 2.70 / 1 units
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dubaibets asia
Rumania : Liga 1
Dynamo – Mioveni
Mioveni +0 @ 2.20
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Tokyo Brandon
(963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 (-118) M Harvey (RHP), C Mchugh (RHP) Must Start
Matt Harvey is actually not as bad as his numbers. But on the road with a team rolling since the Nelson Cruz acquisition, added to the fact that the Rays bat #3 vs RHP and that makes this a 2% play on the first 5 run line.
(967) Cleveland Indians at (968) Minnesota Twins
Game: (967) Cleveland Indians at (968) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.5 (-118) C Quantrill (RHP), G Jax (RHP) Must Start
Jax and Quantrill both have been excellent lately. Jax has bad numbers but most of those were gained early in the season. These two SPs are dealing and neither lineup is hot by any means. 5.5 is really high, take the Under 5.5 1st 5 innings.
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Stitches--NY Post. Won with the Blue Jays yesterday. Season record now 69-65.
Monday's play (20 units) is on the White Sox.
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Matt Snyder
SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/16 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO +115
ANALYSIS: I wouldn't blame anyone for seeing "Padres vs. Rockies" and immediately thinking the Padres are the obvious pick. To get the home underdog here is just too juicy when looking under the hood here, though. The Rockies are 38-21 in Coors Field this year. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is better at home than on the road. Meanwhile, the Padres come in having just lost three of four to the Diamondbacks. They did win on Sunday with the triumphant return of Fernando Tatis, Jr., but the pitching staff is a mess. Starter Ryan Weathers has given up at least six runs in each of his last three starts (15.43 ERA). The Rockies got him for eight runs in four innings on July 30.
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 08/16 | 7:10 PM EDT
ATLANTA -160
ANALYSIS: The Braves have won 10 of their last 12 games and have taken a lead in the NL East. They've also won seven straight road games, so it's not like we should worry about the travel here. The Marlins might look "hot" with a four-game winning streak, but the last three were against what's left of the Cubs, currently on an 11-game losing streak. Braves starter Touki Toussaint has mostly thrown the ball well this year. The first-place Brewers tagged him and skewed his numbers. In his other four starts, he has a 1.50 ERA. The bullpen has been much better of late, too.
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XS Sports Picks Monday MLB
Last 74 Picks 39-35 +$17,816
5* Tampa Bay -1.5 -140
3* San Diego -123
3* Cincinnati -1.5 -115
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
CLEVELAND @ MINNESOTA | 08/16 | 8:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win.
SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/16 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO +1.5
ANALYSIS: We've said this over and over, but no team is better at home on the runline than Colorado. I get you can't really favor the Rockies over a very good Padres team, but I'll happily take +1.5 at only -125. San Diego pitcher Ryan Weathers has been absolutely obliterated in his past three starts overall and has a 9.00 ERA in three outings vs. Colorado -- which is above .500 vs. lefties. Rox starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing special but always pitches better in Denver. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as road favorites.
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Zack Cimini
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/16 | 9:45 PM EDT
N.Y. METS +183
ANALYSIS: The Mets are in for a challenge against the Giants. On Sunday night, they were trounced 14-4 at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a prime-time spot. Now they travel across the country to face the best team in majors. Look for a better effort from New York, which has been priced based on its underachieving play since the All-Star break. Play the Mets.
OAKLAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/16 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX +101
ANALYSIS: Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel makes his first start against a non-divisional opponent since before the All-Star break. Expect that to be beneficial for Keuchel, as he has recorded just one win since June 15. Back the White Sox as they bounce back after having lost four of their previous five contests.
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 08/16 | 7:10 PM EDT
ATLANTA -160
ANALYSIS: The Braves continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series in Miami. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as it has won 10 of 12, a stretch that has catapulted the team into first place in the National League East. Expect the momentum to continue as the Marlins four-game winning streak comes to a halt.
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Micah Roberts
FEATURED PICK
OAKLAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/16 | 8:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND -111
ANALYSIS: The White Sox and A’s have identical 68-50 records, but Chicago has lost four of five while Oakland has dropped two of three. White Sox LHP Dallas Keuchel has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts - all of which Chicago has lost. Oakland has won each of RHP Frankie Montas' last three outings. He has allowed four earned runs over 19 innings during that span. Take the Athletics to win.
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/16 | 9:45 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: The Mets begin a six-game West Coast trip after being swept at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. New York is averaging only 3.8 runs per game and scored a total of 10 in the three-game series versus the Dodgers. The Giants have won seven of their last eight contests and have ace Kevin Gausman on the mound. I'm on the Under.
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Andrew McInnis
Play: Minnesota Twins ML (-123)
Rating: 5*
The Indians take on the twins in Monday action; this is an excellent spot for the Twins as they have dominated Cleveland as of late, winning eight of the last nine matchups at home in Minnesota and 5-2 in the last seven overall.
Cleveland blew it up at the trade deadline; they're 5-9 since and have fallen out of the wildcard race completely. Although Minnesota's record isn’t excellent, the team includes a large portion of the roster that had made the playoffs over the last two years, and they're averaging the fourth-most home runs per game in the major league (1.44) with a .746 OPS at the plate. This game is all about the ability of Jorge Polanco and company to pound Cal Quantrill’s pitches with their bats. Quantrill gave up six hits and six earned runs in only 4.1 innings of work when he stared down the Twins’ lineup back in late June. The Twins have the power to extend the lousy week vibes going on in the Indians organization. Quintrell is averaging seven hits against per game, and if that happens again, some of those homers the twins hit could result in some big innings.
Sure, the Indians had a solid win against the improved Tigers Sunday night, but this is an entirely different match-up and one that they've struggled with on the road. I don't see Jax having a tough time with the Indians lineup that, besides one massive outburst, has worked to put up runs consistently. The twins are 7-3 in their last ten overall; rookie Griffin Jax is on the mound; despite his Era not being the prettiest, he's given up only one earned run in 3 of his last four outings. The fact is, this is a generous price on the Twins, they are much better than their record indicates, and they've proven it over their last two-week stretch by competing and defeating against division-leading teams like the Rays, White Sox & Astros
PLAY THE HOME TEAM. TAKE THE TWINS.
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The Winners Circle
MLB BASEBALL
Play San Francisco -180 over New York Mets (MLB)
Play Houston -160 over Kansas City (MLB)
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Kevin Dolan
5% top play - Villarreal -1 (vs Granada)
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Steve Merrill
Over KC
Over Colorado
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Action Network 8/16
Cubs vs. Reds MLB Pick
Sharp Action
Seventy-seven percent of Cubs vs. Reds bettors are laying the number with Cincy, yet Chicago has dropped from the opener of +205 to +180 thanks to respected bettors.
Bet signals are reporting three waves of smart money flowing on the Cubs, helping explain why that price has shortened despite the majority of action backing the Reds.
Big Money
While just 23% of moneyline tickets have landed on the Chicago thus far, those bets account for 48% of the real moneywagered, revealing that the biggest bettors are taking the underdog in this matchup.
PRO Systems
With so much public action flowing on the Reds, the Cubs fit The Action Network’s Betting against the public Pro System, which has produced a profit of 159 units dating back to 2005.
Top Experts
One of our top MLB experts is also aligned with the sharps today by taking a shot on the Cubs at such an appetizing number.
PRO Report Pick: Cubs +180
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CodyCoversSpreads
VIP
MLB 8/16
Indians ML(300u)(Whale)
Astros ML(200u)
Rockies ML(200u)
White Sox ML(200u)
Parlay 1 Indians/Astros (50u)
Parlay 2 Rockies/W Sox (50u)
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Marco D'Angelo
4% - 1H Oakland As - Action
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #969
A’s -110 over White Sox
Montas/Keuchel
The A’s have been a little better against left handed pitching this year and their batting average is up when on the road compared to at home. Dallas Keuchel is not the strikeout pitcher that he once was and I believe the A’s are well equipped to knock him around tonight. Frankie Montas has cut down on his walks and beefed up his strikeouts per 9 innings and is the better of the two pitchers this season. Take the A’s.
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JM SPORTS
Game: (965) Houston Astros at (966) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Houston Astros -156 J Odorizzi (RHP), C Hernandez (RHP) Must Start
4 unit Houston Astros (-156) over Kansas City Royals (Odorizzi/Hernandez) –
Jake Odorizzi on the mound has an ERA of 4.59 but some how continues to win games, including a 2-1 record in the L3 starts with a 6.08 ERA. Although Houston has played well behind him, they have given him the offense that he needs to string together the wins, the Astros are 5-2 in his L7 starts as a F (including 3-1 as AF) and they are 3-1 in his 4 starts in the opening game of a series. The Astros have started off hot in multiple series this year, in the opening game they are 24-14, including 12-7 on the road, 7-1 as an AF in the L8. and 9 straight on the road vs. non-divisional opponents. Houston is also 10-2 as an AF vs. RHP w/ ERA > 4.00 (including 8 straight), 9-2 as an AF vs. RHP w/ WHIP > 1.25 (including 8 straight), but vs. RHP in general they have faired well recently, going 12-2 as an AF vs. RHP w/ line < -115, 6-1 on the road vs a RHP off a L, and 7-1 vs. RHP after a L in which they tied, or out hit the opponent. The Royals on the other hand are starting a pitcher in Hernandez that only has 5 starts on the year, although he has fair well in those starts this is a game that could head to the bullpen early and KC's bullpen ranks #27 TY in earned runs per game out of the bullpen (1.974). The Royals have also struggled to start as hot as the Astros, they are 18-20 in the opening game of their series TY, including 2-8 in the L10 as a D and 2-6 @ H vs. SP w/ WHIP < 1.25. Against right-handed pitching this year, Kansas City has struggled immensely to say the least.. they are 7-19 as a D vs. RHP w/ WHIP -125 (12%)!! Kansas City is now coming off of 4 straight losses, they are 6-15 TY in the 5th game, and 4-9 as a dog, while it doesn't happen to often, KC lost B2B games by 5 or more runs, this year, teams that lost B2B games by 5 or more as a dog vs. RHP are 9-20 this season!
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DR. CHUCK
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-115) J Steele (LHP), W Miley (LHP) Must Start
Ahem….say it with me now…
We don't often bet home teams on the run line, but when we do, we prefer Wade Miley and his perfect 8-0 record at the GAB, and the opponent to be the hapless Cubbies…fresh out of Miami on no rest and here on the road again with Justin Steele on the mound and not much of a lineup, still no Willson…with the Redlegs chasing him early and giving way to the hideous bullpen with a 6.06 FIP over the past 7 days….
A variety of ways to attack this game…this is probably the MOST valuable!….if not the safest….Reds aren't losing!
Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Colorado Rockies -105 R Weathers (LHP), A Senzatela (RHP) Must Start
Not ONLY do we get the single most profitable aspect of MLB this season….Rockies F5 ML…but we get to FADE Ryan Weathers on the mound….who has been so bad of late it won't matter the Padres got the offense going a little bit last night and Tatis is back and playing outfield.
Weathers has an 8.10 FIP overall in the second half….got HAMMERED by this Rockies team in San Diego…where the Rockies do not excel at all….and he has a .469 wOBA against in the 4 starts since the break. His FIP of 5.20 and 5.72 respectively in 2-2 and 3-2 counts particularly is something to focus on when playing against him….
Meanwhile, Senzatela has a mere 2.06 FIP in the second half and an absolutely STUPID .412 BABIP which is as due for regression as any number in the entire sport….much to our benefit!
Also of note….the Dads have lost 4 straight games in Coors and have only led after 5 innings twice on the season facing the Rockies away!
Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: To be announced
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Colorado Rockies Total Over 5.5 (-110) R Weathers (LHP) Must Start
Bargain basement prices….and how often are we gonna say that on a 5.5 for a HOME team…but that's what THIS is….with Weathers and the VMI and the home field and the LHP aspect and the way they play the Dads and ALLOFIT
Game: (957) New York Mets at (958) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -200 R Hill (LHP), K Gausman (RHP) Must Start
Basically everything…that is the analysis here….could go on and on and on….but just flat have it all….the Mets off the Dodgers series and 3000 miles of travel and the starter mismatch and the Mets being 0-6 last 6 all in August hung as a Vegas dog…Gausman stepping it up after looking like he might fade….a 41 year old lefty on the bump for the road team…bullpen prowess aplenty for the Giants of late….oh and that 41 year old's worst situation…. facing righties on the road….of which he should face mostly save Crawford and maybe Belt….the 2 LH hitters that have had the MOST success….each reaching base 11 times in 22 PAs v. Hill!
SUPERFECTA of the day
Game: (957) New York Mets at (958) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-105) R Hill (LHP), K Gausman (RHP) Must Start
Wish we'd gotten this at + money but we can't be phased….this is RIGHT and only the 8 ABs is keeping it still THIS valuable….Gabe's boys are gonna be ready to put on a hurting on the team that just got reamed 14-4 by HIS divisional rival….on Sunday night baseball to boot!
This is spot of the year type stuff….
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Top Flight Sports
KC Royals +1.5 **5u max play**
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #951 Atlanta -145 (Toussaint)
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Parlay travy
Rays -1.5
Giants
Braves
Reds
Key on Ray’s in parlay
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VegasGuru
Rockies under 10(LOCK OF THE MONTH)
Rays -1.5(Max Bet)
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Brandon Lang
60 DIME
UP THE ANTE
MONEY MAKER
MLB Game Of The Month
Part 2
Minnesota Twins -125 over the Cleveland Indians, 8:10 PM EST
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - White Sox +105
Triple Dime - Padres -130
Double Dime - Orioles/Rays Over 8.5 [-118]
Dime - Yankees -1.5 runs [-135]
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Pickswise Sports
MLB 3* Best Bet - Cincinnati Reds -1.5 runs [-110]
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John Bollman
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 08/16 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -210
ANALYSIS: The Cubs have now lost 11 straight games and now they go to Cincinnati to face the surging Reds who are just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. Wade Miley vs. Justin Steele and the Reds have a big pitching advantage. Jesse Winker just went on the IL but I don’t actually think that will hurt them too much against a lefty. The Cubs are 21-40 on the road and even if Steele pitches well their bullpen should struggle. Monday’s usually have weird results but I don’t think the Cubs losing streak ends tonight. Take the Reds at home.
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Godfatherlocks august 16th picks
mlb
massive 5k winner (9-5 run)
massive 5000 unit pick
chicago white sox -105 (mlb)
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Marty’s MLB
Miami +156
NY Mets +192
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Tom Stryker MLB play on White Sox
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Larry Ness Division Game of Month on San Diego
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Elite Sports Picks
Cleveland (Quantrill) +110 over Minnesota (Jax)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Oakland (Montas) -115 over Chicago White Sox (Keuchel)
Range: +100 to -140
3* Cleveland (Quantrill)/Minnesota (Jax) UNDER 10
Range: 10.5 to 9.5
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National Sports Service
4* Atlanta (Toussaint) -140 over Miami (Garrett)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 08/16/21
4 Unit --> Oakland (Montas) -115 over Chicago White Sox (Keuchel)
3 Unit --> Chicago Cubs (Steele)/Cincinnati (Miley) OVER 9
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 08/16/21
4★ Cleveland (Quantrill) +110 over Minnesota (Jax)
3★ Chicago Cubs (Steele)/Cincinnati (Miley) UNDER 9
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Marco D'Angelo
4% MLB MONDAY MASSACRE 12-1 MLB RUN!!
Game: (969) Oakland Athletics at (970) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Aug 16 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Oakland Athletics -115 F Montas (RHP), D Keuchel (LHP) Must Start
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4% (969) OAKLAND 1st 5 Innings -115
The Oakland A’s are playing well winning 8 of their L10 Games. The White Sox have lost 4 of their L5 games and are coming off that big series with the Yankees that included the “Field of Dreams Game”. White Sox pitching got hit hard in the Yankee Series as they allowed 20 runs in the 3 games. Oakland sends Frankie Montas to the mound who has been dealing it as he has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 straight games and 12 of his last 13 games. Dallas Keuchel goes for Chicago and he has allowed 4 runs or more in 3 of his L4 starts. We also find the following:
Key Stat: OAKLAND is 16-4 against the money line against AL Central opponents this season.
Key Stat: OAKLAND is 16-5 against the money line on the road when the total is 9 or 9.5 this season
TAKE OAKLAND 1st 5 Innings as my 4% MLB MONDAY MASSACRE
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