Monday 9/21/20 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, MLB & NBA
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 4:58 PM
LAS VEGAS +5.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
Though the seats will be empty at Allegiant Stadium, the Raiders surely will be amped for their coming-out party in Sin City. Not to be overlooked in Tom Brady’s shaky debut against New Orleans was Drew Brees’ spotty performance. The Saints’ average of 4.2 yards per snap is second-lowest in the league. Age may be catching up, and Brees will miss peerless WR Michael Thomas (ankle). RB Alvin Kamara (1.3 yards per carry) struggled on the ground against the Bucs.
7-0-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +700
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 10:23 AM
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
This Monday Night Football matchup ultimately will come down to defense, so which one can you trust the most? The Saints were able to frustrate Tom Brady and a Tampa Bay offense that is loaded with weapons, forcing multiple turnovers as well as scoring on defense. Las Vegas' defense is young and trying to come together as a unit. Look for New Orleans' defense to stymie the Raiders' offense, making it tough for the home team to slow down Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and company.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +300
12-5 IN LAST 17 NO ATS PICKS | +640
Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
WED 9/16
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Raiders have no defense. Alvin Kamara is going to have a huge game both as a runner and receiver. The Saints' defense just shut down Tom Brady and they're going to show up big here too. Lay the points.
3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +80
11-4 IN LAST 15 NO ATS PICKS | +647
5-2 IN LAST 7 LV ATS PICKS | +272
Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
WED 9/16
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Saints' offense struggled in Week 1, but that was against a top-tier Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay returned 10 of 11 starters from a unit that finished sixth in overall efficiency last season, first against the run. The going will be easier against the Raiders, even without Michael Thomas. Lay it as the Saints improve to 5-0 ATS in their last five as road favorites.
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +500
23-15 IN LAST 38 NO ATS PICKS | +659
2-1 IN LAST 3 LV ATS PICKS | +96
__________________
FOOTBALL JESUS podcast Monday night RAIDERS +pts
__________________
VegasInsider Edge NFL (Week #1 record 4-2)
Week #2
Las Vegas Raiders +6
__________________
Stephen Oh
MILWAUKEE +115
MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 9/21 | 6:40 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:19 PM
My model says the Brewers win almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value playing them here. The NL Central rivals are battling for a wild-card spot, and Milwaukee enters the opener of the three-game series with a four-game winning streak. The Brewers have outscored their opponents 25-8 during the run, which includes a pair of shutouts. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is just 2-4 this season but has gone 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati this year. Take Milwaukee.
22-14 LAST 36 MLB SIDES | +954
26-18 IN LAST 44 CIN ML PICKS | +755
TAMPA BAY -150
DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | 9/21 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:05 PM
My model says the Lightning win well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting great value playing them. Tampa Bay has yet to suffer back-to-back losses this postseason. The Lightning also dropped the opener in their second-round series against Boston but followed with six consecutive victories. Expect them to bounce back and even the Stanley Cup Final at one win apiece.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NHL ML PICKS | +660
8-3 IN LAST 11 TB ML PICKS | +375
6-3 IN LAST 9 DAL ML PICKS | +313
__________________
Fezzik raiders +6
__________________
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
FRI 9/18
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Saints typically struggle early in the year, with last week's win over the Bucs the first time they've covered in the opener since 2013 and with only one cover in Week 2 since 2011. But this is a terrible matchup for a Raiders offense that wants to run the ball above all else. The Saints D did a great job against the Tampa Bay offense in Week 1, and you only have to look to last year to see why a run-focused team can have issues with them; New Orleans had the second-fewest rush attempts and third-most pass attempts allowed. That is not how the Raiders, a team that had 31 rushes vs. 30 pass attempts last week, want to play.
15-5 IN LAST 20 NFL PICKS | +950
6-2 IN LAST 8 NO ATS PICKS | +369
8-5 IN LAST 13 LV ATS PICKS | +239
__________________
TotalMatchVip
TURKEY: 1. Lig
Samsunspor – Umraniyespor
Over 2.5
__________________
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
FRI 9/18
Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest Pick
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
WED 9/16
Best Bet
NEW ORLEANS -5.5
__________________
SDQL
HOUSTON -145
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE | 9/21 | 9:10 PM EDT
9:42 AM
The Astros are 9-0 as 140-plus road favorites following a home game in which they drew five walks and 8-0 as favorites after a contest as favorites in which Carlos Correa was hitless in at least three at-bats. The Mariners are 0-8 as underdogs after a game as home dogs in which their opponent stranded 18 or more baserunners. We are on Houston.
39-17 IN LAST 56 MLB ML PICKS | +998
8-2 IN LAST 10 HOU ML PICKS | +544
4-1 IN LAST 5 SEA ML PICKS | +210
CINCINNATI -125
MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 9/21 | 6:40 PM EDT
9:39 AM
The Reds are 15-0 before game 100 in series openers with no rest as home favorites following a home win in which they never trailed. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 0-11 in the first game of a series with no rest as underdogs after a win as home favorites in which they never trailed. Cincinnati has the value here.
39-17 IN LAST 56 MLB ML PICKS | +998
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIL ML PICKS | +300
ST. LOUIS -172
ST. LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY | 9/21 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:35 AM
The Cardinals have never lost with Adam Wainwright as 140-plus favorites after August, going 8-0 and winning by an average of 4.75 runs. The Royals are 0-22 before their 95th game of the season as home underdogs following a game as a dog when their starter went less than four innings in his last outing and was not a 170-plus favorite in that start. Kansas City has lost these 22 games by an average of 4.36 runs. We are on the Cardinals.
39-17 IN LAST 56 MLB ML PICKS | +998
14-3 IN LAST 17 KC ML PICKS | +842
6-1 IN LAST 7 STL ML PICKS | +443
CHI. CUBS -157
CHI. CUBS @ PITTSBURGH | 9/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:32 AM
The Cubs are 11-0 in franchise history with Jon Lester starting when they are facing a team that has lost at least its previous three games. Chicago has allowed a total of one run over its last three games in this spot. Since the start of the 2019 season, Pittsburgh is 0-11 as a home underdog of more than 140 when it is coming off a home game in which it did not hit a home run, losing by an average of 4.69 runs - with every loss being by multiple runs. We make the Cubs the play.
39-17 IN LAST 56 MLB ML PICKS | +998
10-4 IN LAST 14 CHC ML PICKS | +421
3-1 IN LAST 4 PIT ML PICKS | +143
ATLANTA -160
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 9/21 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:29 AM
Atlanta is 13-0 in the first game of a series with no rest as a favorite after a win in which it never trailed and its starter allowed fewer than three runs. The Braves won these 13 games by an average of exactly four runs. The Marlins are 0-13 as 125-plus underdogs in series openers with no rest against a team that has averaged at least 7.75 hits and they are coming off a home game in which they allowed 12-plus hits. Miami has lost these 13 games by an average of 4.69 runs, and every loss was by multiple runs. We are on the Braves.
39-17 IN LAST 56 MLB ML PICKS | +998
10-3 IN LAST 13 ATL ML PICKS | +574
__________________
Big Al
NHL Tampa
Bases Phillies and cubs
_________________
Matt Blunt
Raiders +6
__________________
Vince Akins
MLB
Best Bet - Giants -113
Nationals +140
Cubs -150
Astros/Mariners Over 8
__________________
Marc Lawrence
Raiders +6
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Dylan Bundy - Los Angeles Angels Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Game: (901) Texas Rangers at (902) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Sep 21 2020 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Dylan Bundy Over 6.5 Strikeouts
View Analysis
Bundy matched up with the Rangers in Arlington a couple weeks ago and hammered them to the tune of 12 Ks, but SINCE then the Rangers have led the MLB in strikeouts at the plate facing RHP with a 32% clip in the 250+ PAs SINCE they faced Dylan Bundy. This bet clearly relies on Bundy making the case to Maddon he has the stuff to go deep enough to face enough batters to get to this point, but that is part of this type of bet. When he is able to go deep enough to legitimately get to a 7 K game, he has 7 such starts and has struck out batters at a 32.4% clip in those games...averaging roughly 26 to 27 batters faced...and striking out on average ~9 batters.
Of the Rangers most likely to make the lineup today in LA, ONLY Kiner-Falefa and Eli White DO NOT strike out at a 30% or higher rate since they faced Bundy on 9/10! In fact Taveras, Gallo, Odor, Solak, Tejeda, and Guzman have 47 Ks in their combined 140 PAs during the timeframe....
To get Bundy in this spot just needing to eke past 7 Ks at PLUS money is a damn near 5% play and I will be personally playing it at the 5% mark...as we have done several times over the past couple weeks with our MLB plays rated "officially" at 4%!!!!
__________________
Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
10:05 AM
ST. LOUIS -172
ST. LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY | 9/21 | 8:05 PM EDT
The Cardinals have won four in a row and now give the ball to Adam Wainwright, who's 5-1 with a 2.87 ERA. He's fanned 28 and walked six over his last four starts. Take St. Louis to improve to 6-1 in the past seven meetings.
38-25 IN LAST 63 MLB PICKS | +465
2-1 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS | +158
2-1 IN LAST 3 KC ML PICKS | +47
__________________
Root
No limit - Raiders
__________________
Master Sports
MLB
3* Cincinnati -130 (Castillo)
__________________
Elite Sports Picks
New Orleans/Las Vegas UNDER 48.5 (NFL)
__________________
Insider Sports Report
4* Philadelphia (Wheeler) -140 over Washington (Sanchez)
Range: -125 to -165
3* St. Louis (Wainwright) -145 over Kansas City (Hernandez)
Range: -130 to -170
3* Las Vegas +6 over New Orleans (NFL)
Range: +7.5 to +3
__________________
National Sports Service
4* Chicago White Sox (Dunning) -115 over Cleveland (Civale)
3* New Orleans/Las Vegas OVER 48.5 (NFL)
__________________
Primetime Sports Picks For 09/21/20
4 Unit --> Miami (Rogers)/Atlanta (Ynoa) OVER 9
3 Unit --> Cincinnati (Castillo) -130 over Milwaukee (Woodruff)
3 Unit --> Las Vegas +6 over New Orleans (NFL)
__________________
Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 09/21/20
4★ Philadelphia (Wheeler) -140 over Washington (Sanchez)
3★ New Orleans/Las Vegas OVER 48.5 (NFL)
__________________
Tom Stryker
28-7 ATS NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOP SHELF WAGER
Saints
__________________
Tony Finn
E New Orleans Saints -4.5
__________________
The Prez
E Saints/Raiders Over 50.5
__________________
Super Lock Line
NFL: Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
__________________
Profit On Sports
NFL: Saints/Raiders Over 48.5
MLB: Reds -130
MLB: Braves Over 9
MLB: Astros -145
__________________
Stats Analytics Sports
MLB - Blue Jays/Yankees Under 11
__________________
Total Sports Solutions (The Swami - MLB) - 7 Unit Astros/Mariners Under 8
__________________
Paul Leiner
2000* Reds -130 (Castillo)
500* Over 48.5 Raiders/Saints
__________________
H&H Sports
NHL Icecrusher - Triple Dime Tampa Bay Lightning -155
NFL - Double Dime New Orleans Saints -4
MLB
Triple Dime - New York Yankees -140
Double Dime - Philadelphia Phillies -155
Dime Play - Tampa Bay Rays +175
__________________
Northcoast
2* LV Raiders +6
marquee Over 48’
__________________
Gabriel DuPont
40 dime- stars
__________________
HITMAN | NFL Total - Monday, Sep 21 2020 8:15PM
289 NOS / 290 LVR UNDER 50.0 Bookmaker double-dime bet
Analysis: FYI- LONG TERM CLIENTS.. WE ARE RELEASING 2* NYG +4.5 -110 FOR WEEK THREE.. THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH THE SITE THAT THEY ARE WORKING ON.. WILL HAVE THE PICK UPLOADED ASAP.
__________________