Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 9/18/21

Northcoast Sports

Army -33 (Early Bird Play)
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Bryan Leonard

5% Texas A&M -27'
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Dave Cokin:

Game: (169) East Carolina at (170) Marshall
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Marshall -9.5 (-110)

This line has already moved to -10 and could go higher. Remains 5% level up to and including -11.
I am becoming a big fan of Charles Huff, the new head coach at Marshall. I've already backed the Thundering Herd once and got an easy win and I expect another one here. Huff is a very aggressive coach. He's already shown he's not shy about piling on as Marshall maintained their warp speed offense and kept throwing downfield in the fourth quarter of a game they already had salted away vs. Navy. That's a tendency I really like if I'm backing a favorite as they're more apt to keep trying to score rather than just playing the clock in the fourth quarter. Marshall is now 2-0 after blowing out NC Central, but Huff was not at all pleased after the game. He was unhappy with the way the team practiced and actually apologized to the fans for what he called a subpar performance, especially in the first half. This was after a 44-10 win. So I'm pretty confident we will get a very focused Marshall team here. As for East Carolina, this is a tough spot for a bad team. The Pirates blew a 14-0 lead in a huge home game against an SEC opponent and lost by three on the game's final play. I was on the "right" side of the game with a bet on South Carolina, but the truth is both teams were absolutely terrible on offense and now ECU has to go into hostile surroundings in what is pretty much a nothing non-league game for the Pirates. The line is short on my projections and I feel strongly the more enthused team here will be the Herd. Confidently laying the points with Marshall to get a convincing win and cover.
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BTC SPORT

Green Wave Wipeout
Game: (195) Tulane at (196) Mississippi
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 11:55 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Mississippi -14.0 (-115)

et's put the pieces of this point spread together. Tulane closed as a 32-point underdog at Oklahoma two weeks ago. That was an 11am kickoff in Norman, where Oklahoma invited as many Tulane supporters as they could because of the hurricane and even painted the field for Tulane. It wasn't exactly an intimidating environment. Two weeks later, in a nationally-televised night game at Ole Miss where Lane Kiffin will surely pull out all of the stops, Tulane is only getting 14 points. So this point spread suggests that a) Oklahoma is 18 points better than Ole Miss (I don't believe that's the case); and b) Something has happened to bring these two teams closer together in the betting market (I don't believe that to be the case, either).
Both Tulane and Ole Miss played FCS schools last week and crushed them. Let's throw both of those games completely out of the equation. Prior to the start of the season, our friends at The GoldSheet had this game lined as Ole Miss -16.5 vs Tulane. Ole Miss exceeded market expectations in Week 1 by beating Louisville by 19 as a 10-point favorite. So in theory, Ole Miss should be moving up in the market, not down.
Everyone saw Tulane's final score at Oklahoma and saw that the Green Wave lost by five. Oklahoma was up 23 at halftime and choked away their lead in the fourth quarter. That's not something Lane Kiffin is guilty of very often. If anything, Tulane's near-comeback in Norman will help Lane Kiffin keep his foot on the gas in this one. This is a home game at night on ESPN2 and he's got the second choice in the Heisman betting market at quarterback (which I'm sure he's well aware of). Ole Miss has off next week, so there shouldn't be any fears of a letdown or look-ahead. This is Tulane's third-straight road game. Lay the points with confidence in this matchup at anything less than -17.

Bearcat Beatdown
Game: (127) Cincinnati at (128) Indiana
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Cincinnati -4.0 (-110)

There were plenty of sharp bettors splashing some cold water on Indiana's season last year and taking their regular season win total under 7.5/8 prior to Week 1. Let's review some of their wins last year. They beat Penn State despite getting out-gained by 277 yards. They beat Wisconsin despite getting out-gained by 125 yards. They got out-gained by 124 yards in their bowl game vs Ole Miss. 2021 feels like it's headed toward more of a traditional .500 Indiana season than their 6-1 regular season from a year ago.
Indiana QB Michael Penix, Jr. hasn't looked great in his return from an offseason knee surgery. In Week 1 against Iowa he threw three interceptions (two that were returned for a touchdown) and last week against Idaho he didn't complete a pass of more than ten yards. “I think it was definitely a very positive step in the right direction for Michael,” head coach Tom Allen said. “I felt last week’s practice was better for him than it was the week before. So as we continue to help this process move forward, I think you’re just going to see him getting better and better.”
Those words are encouraging, but they also sound like the guy still isn't 100-percent. Good luck going against this Cincinnati defense if you're not 100-percent. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Cincinnati as a 10-point favorite in this contest. And let's not downplay Cincinnati's Week 1 win over Miami (Ohio) too much. The RedHawks beat eventual MAC champion Ball State last season, and only lost at Minnesota by five last week. Cincinnati was up 35-0 against them.
At the time of posting, there are a handful of -3.5's out there (Caesars, Westgate SuperBook and Circa), but the consensus is -4 and I'm comfortable laying anything under -6 with Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.

Game: (117) Boston College at (118) Temple
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: 1H Total Under 29.5 (-110)
A lot of injury questions in this game, and all of them are on the offensive side of the ball. Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec is likely to miss the rest of this season after suffering an injury last week. The Eagles will hand the ball to Dennis Grosel who has starting experience in the past with some mixed results. Star wide receiver Zay Flowers left last week's game as well. He is expected to be fine and play this week, but how much are you going to push him with Missouri and Clemson next on the schedule?
The same thing is true on the other side of the ball as Temple starting quarterback D'Wan Mathis left last week's game against Akron in a walking boot. He is "day to day" and his status is unlikely to be known until gametime. His backup, Justin Lynch, is a true freshman. Temple lost 61-14 to Rutgers in Week 1, but the defense certainly wasn't responsible for those 61 points. The Owls only gave up 4.6 yards per play to the Scarlet Knights and held them to 5-of-15 on third downs.
Jurkovec was a do-it-all player for Boston College, and I expect them to change a lot in terms of how they will approach the rest of the season. Things will be tightened up on defense, and the playbook may get a little more conservative until Grosel gets his feet wet. Obviously this is a very small sample size, but Temple (No. 115 in plays per game) and Boston College (No. 117) have played at a very slow pace to start the season.
At the time of posting, the first half under 29.5 is available at Caesars (-110) and Heritage (-110). There's a 30.5 at Pinnacle (-132) and DraftKings (-130). I would not play those at that juice, if you can avoid it. I'm comfortable it it at 29.5 at a standard juice. I also wouldn't fault anyone for splitting their bet between the full game and first half.

Flames on Fire
Game: (167) Old Dominion at (168) Liberty
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: 1H Liberty -16.5 (-115)

The betting market continues to sell Liberty a little short. The Flames have covered the spread in their last TEN games. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have Liberty favored by 32 in this matchup with Old Dominion.
The Monarchs didn't play last season, so this is a complete re-build for Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion. Even though they beat Hampton last week, ODU has lost 13-straight games against FBS compeition. They've brought in DJ Mack Jr., formerly at UCF, to play quarterback. Mack Jr. brings an intriguing dual-threat element with his legs, but he's been dreadful as a passer. In two seasons of limited duty at UCF plus the first two games of this year at ODU, Mack Jr. is completing 50.6-percent of his passes. He better figure some things out in the passing game because Liberty's rush defense has allowed 0.9 yards per carry so far this season.
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for going for the full game -27.5, but there are a couple small intangibles that lead me toward the first half instead. First, Liberty is a great first half team. In 2019 they were No. 22 in the country in first half scoring, and last year they were No. 17 at 20.0 points per game. Second, Liberty plays Syracuse next Friday in the Carrier Dome. And while Syracuse certainly doesn't hold much national appeal at the moment, it's still an opportunity for Liberty to take on an ACC opponent. With it being a short week, Liberty may take their foot off the gas a little bit in the second half.
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Brad Powers

1* Texas A&M
1* Northwestern
1* Arizona St
1* Utah
.5* Arizona St Under
.5 Oklahoma St
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Emory Hunt

AUBURN @ PENN ST. | 09/18 | 7:30 PM EDT
AUBURN +6
ANALYSIS: Auburn coach Bryan Harsin's impact so far on the offense has been significant. He's gotten QB Bo Nix to play with much better control and efficiency, without taking away his ability to make plays. This is a HUGE game for Nix to right some wrongs against a very good team. Conversely for Penn State, this is an excellent opportunity to raise some eyebrows nationally. The Nittany Lions are solid on both sides of the ball. Expect a tighter game than the point spread indicates.

ALABAMA @ FLORIDA | 09/18 | 3:30 PM EDT
ALABAMA -15.5
ANALYSIS: I don't believe it matters to Alabama whether it's Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson at QB for the Gators. The fact of the matter is that they will have to consistently make plays in the passing game against the Crimson Tide's defense if they want to have a chance, as you can expect Alabama coach Nick Saban to neutralize their ability to scramble, escape and extend. Offensively speaking for the Crimson Tide, QB Bryce Young has the look of a young Russell Wilson in the pocket.
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Dave Cokin:

5%Marshall -9
Florida State +6.5
North Texas +12
Texas A&M -29.5
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Barrett Sallee

GEORGIA TECH @ CLEMSON | 09/18 | 3:30 PM EDT
OVER 52
ANALYSIS: The Tigers will kick off the ACC slate on Saturday and, while Georgia Tech isn’t necessarily a threat, it will provide a nice test heading into games at NC State and vs. Boston College. Throw last week’s win against South Carolina State out the window. After all, it’s South Carolina State. The Tigers offense needs to develop their identity, and a game against a Yellow Jackets team that is wildly undermanned is the perfect chance to do so. This has 60-burger written all over it.

ARIZONA ST. @ BYU | 09/18 | 10:15 PM EDT
BYU +4
ANALYSIS: Provo is a tough place to play, especially for Power Five opponents in a late night tilt. That’s exactly what the Sun Devils will be walking into. It’s almost impossible to replace Zach Wilson, but Cougars signal-caller Jaren Hall has five touchdown passes and, more importantly, zero interceptions in a season in which he’s also added 128 yards on the ground. This is a multi-dimensional rushing attack that is going to be tough for Arizona State to slow down for a full 60 minutes. Consider BYU and the moneyline, but definitely grab those points.

ALABAMA @ FLORIDA | 09/18 | 3:30 PM EDT
ALABAMA -14.5
ANALYSIS: Turnovers get teams killed vs. Alabama, and Gators quarterback Emory Jones has thrown two picks in each of his first two games as the starter. Meanwhile, coach Dan Mullen seems reluctant to give Anthony Richardson too much run -- especially since he pulled a hamstring at the end of last week’s win over USF. The Crimson Tide will force the Gators into a shootout and there’s no way that they’ll be able to keep up. Honestly, 14.5 should be the halftime line, not the full game line.
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SportsLine Projection Model

Cincinnati at Indiana | 9/18 | 12:00 p.m. ET

Against the spread
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5
The Bearcats cover in 58 percent of simulations.

Over/Under
Pick: Under 49.5
The Under cashes in 75 percent of simulations.

Moneyline
Pick: Cincinnati -170
The Bearcats win 66 percent of the time

Projected final score: CIncinnati 23, Indiana 16
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WUnderdog

CFB

BostonCollege -14.5 @ temple
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Scott Spreitzer:

UConn/Army U58.5 (3U)
Texas A&M -29.5 (3U)
Marshall -9 (7U)
Penn State -5 (3U)
AZ State -3.5 (4U)
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Adam Trigger

Coastal Car -14
Kansas St +2
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Doug Upstone

3 Mid Tenn St #165 +13
4 Marshall #170 -10
7 Penn State #182 -5
4 BYU #200 +3.5
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Vegas Sports Informer
CFB

6 Boise State -4
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Tony Finn

5* total is under 50 in Colorado/Minnesota (good to 48)
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Alan Scozzari Sport

MAX BET
Spain LaLiga2
Zaragoza -0,5 -110

GOY
France Ligue 2
Quevilly Rouen – Auxerre UNDER 2,5 +100
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Dave Essler 3* GOM

S Miss +10
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IC

3* Vanderbilt +12
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Pointwise Phones
4- Penn St, San Diego St
3- Purdue, Alabama, Cincinnati, Memphis
2= Arkansas St , LA Tech, Northwestern, North Carolina
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Elite Sports Picks

Arizona St./B.Y.U. UNDER 50 (NCAAF)
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Insider Sports Report

5* Purdue +7.5 over Notre Dame (NCAAF)
Range: +9.5 to +5.5

3* Nebraska +23 over Oklahoma (NCAAF)
Range: +24.5 to +20.5

3* South Carolina/Georgia UNDER 48 (NCAAF)
Range: 49.5 to 45.5
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National Sports Service

4* Kent St. +23 over Iowa (NCAAF)

3* Northwestern -3 over Duke (NCAAF)

3* Old Dominion/Liberty OVER 52.5 (NCAAF)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 09/18/21

5★ South Carolina/Georgia UNDER 48 (NCAAF)

3★ UConn/Army UNDER 48 (NCAAF)

3★ Texas A&M -30 over New Mexico (NCAAF)
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Marc lawrence
Playbook data play

florida +14

0-2 on the season
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 09/18/21

4 Unit --> Utah St./Air Force UNDER 54 (NCAAF)

3 Unit --> U.S.C. -7.5 over Washington St. (NCAAF)

3 Unit --> Oklahoma St. +3 over Boise St. (NCAAF)
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Max Gorenstein

SD St +8.5
UTSA -13.5
IA -23
C Car -14
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Big Al

Indiana Hoosiers
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BTC SPORT

Added
Tank Keeps Rollin
Game: (113) Connecticut at (114) Army
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2 units
Play: Army Total Over 41.0 (-110)

I am going to release some thoughts on two college football team totals tonight. I'll release both of them for small unit sizes. They are not widely available at the time of posting, but hopefully in the morning when the market expands a little bit, you'll be able to join me with some beer and pizza money on these.
Army is NOT shy about steam-rolling a team when they have the opportunity. In 2019, the Black Knights scored 52 vs Morgan State; 63 vs UMass; and 47 vs VMI. In 2020 they scored 42 vs Middle Tennessee; 55 vs Abilene Christian; and 49 vs Mercer. They've already scored 43 and 38 in two games this year against viable FBS competition. Why should we think UConn of all teams is going to hold them under their season average?!
When you've got a team like Alabama running out the clock in the fourth quarter, the other team is still competing and trying to make some plays. When teams are getting whipped by Army, they wave the white flag and say “no mas.” Look at the box scores of some of those games that I mentioned above. They scored 21 in the fourth quarter against Morgan State. They scored 14 in the fourth quarter against VMI. They scored 17 in the fourth quarter against Abilene Christian. Those teams were probably so tired of getting cut-blocked and pancake'd that they just rolled over.
UConn's coach Randy Edsall is no longer with the team, handing the reins to Lou Spanos. Spanos was a linebackers coach in the NFL from 1995 to 2017. You know what you don't see in a 23-year career in the NFL? The triple option. Spanos joked about it with the local UConn press this week, saying he remembers playing against the triple option in seventh grade. He has no experience trying to coach against it.

Barstool Sportsbook has Army over 40.5 (-120). Pinnacle has Army over 41.5 (-102). BetOnline doesn't have team totals up at the time of posting, but they do have a prop: Will either team reach 40 points? So the "yes" is essentially a bet on Army's team total over 39.5. Anything under 42 would be a recommended play from me.
Wolverine Wallop
Game: (111) Northern Illinois at (112) Michigan
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2 units
Play: Michigan Total Over 41.0 (-110)

I am going to release some thoughts on two college football team totals tonight. I'll release both of them for small unit sizes. They are not widely available at the time of posting, but hopefully in the morning when the market expands a little bit, you'll be able to join me with some beer and pizza money on these.
John Harbaugh is a good bully, and he's usually not shy about keeping his foot on the gas to keep the alumni happy (Sports betting is legal in Michigan, afterall). He should have the opportunity in this one. I really enjoy reading the SB Nation sites to get a feel for a team before the game. You can usually get a good mix of opinions from a couple different people on how teams are approaching games. In this week's preview at Maize n Brew, the question was asked: "What questions do you still have you’d like for Michigan to find answers to?" All seven writers referred to Michigan's passing game and Cade McNamara. So if the fans and writers are still questioning it, you know Harbaugh probably is, too.
Michigan is running the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country through two weeks. The Wolverines only had seven pass completions last week against Washington. At some point, Harbaugh needs to know what he's working with, especially since they lost No. 1 wide receiver Ronnie Bell in Week 1. There's no better defense in the country to air it out against than Northern Illinois'. The Huskies' defense is No. 114 in passing success rate allowed. While playing a MAC schedule last season, Northern Illinois gave up 9.2 yards per pass attempt.
Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis lost his voice this week because he was yelling at his players so much. I don't think you'll see a letdown from his unit this week. The Wolverines know they still have things to work on. Their offensive line is going to dominate this game.
Barstool Sportsbook has Michigan over 40.5 (-125). Pinnacle has Michigan over 41.5 (+105). BetOnline doesn't have team totals up at the time of posting, but they do have a prop: Will either team reach 40 points? So the "yes" (-115) is essentially a bet on Michigan's team total over 39.5. Anything under 42 would be a recommended play from me.
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MITCHELL NEWMAN

TOP-RATED
100 DIME
Winner # 8 of 10

Non-Conference Game of the Year

Selection: 100 Dime winner on the Penn State Nittany Lions
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TRACE ADAMS

Raise The Bar
1500♦

Conference USA Dead Mortal Lock

The Pick: 1500♦ on Middle Tennessee State
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CHRIS JORDAN

300♦
College Football

Bailout Total Cinch

The Pick: 300♦ Over Fresno State-UCLA
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Good morning Mr. Shazman. If you get a chance around 11:00 Northcoast releases there picks and today he is releasing his first 5 star pick which means looser to me. And as always thanks so much for all you do

Greg Shaker

2 Liberty
2 Texas A&M
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Linebacker Sports
18-8 CFB
All 5* plays
Lines at time of release
Tex A&M -29.5
Michigan over 54
Ball St +7
Iowa under 56.5
FSU +6.5
Marshal -9.5
Penn St under 53
N Texas +12
AF over 54
La Tech +11
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Rockies. Season record now 86-79.

Saturday's play (a rare 30 unit play) is on the Blue Jays.
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Nelly's

5* Miami FL -6.5
7* Virginia +8.5
7* Ole Miss -14
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Wayne Root

Chairmans- Nevada
Contrarian- Duke
Gold Standard- Indiana
Reserve- Vanderbilt
Pinnacle- Florida
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Maddux - All 10's

Fla St+6
AF Ov 51'
OK St+4'
Troy Un 50'
WVa Un 50'
Pa ST Un 53
Marsh Ov 55
BYU Un 51
Cin Ov 49
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HUNT VALLEY SPORTS

15 Utah State +9.5
15 Penn State -5
4 Parlay Utah State/Penn State,
10 LA Tech +11
7 West Virginia -2.5
7 Georgia State -4.5
6 Indiana +3.5
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EAGLE EYE SPORTS-MAILMAN
Miss St
Wakeforest
Clemson
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EAGLE EYE SPORTS--DAVE MARSHALL
AUBURN
Northwestern
Clemson
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EAGLE EYE SPORTS--GUARANTEED
Memphis
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steve merril

penn st
tex am
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Clay Travis -14-7 on the season

Michigan State +6.5 at Miami,
Purdue +8.5 at Notre Dame
Nebraska +22.5 at Oklahoma
Alabama at Florida +14.5 and the over 58.5
Old Dominion at Liberty, the over 54
South Carolina +32 at Georgia
Auburn at Penn State -6 and the under 53
Stanford at Vanderbilt, the under 49
Tulane at Ole Miss, the under 76.5
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ATS

NCAAF: Pittsburgh -14

NCAAF: Nevada -1.5
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Super Lock Line

NCAAF: Air Force -9
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DavidN

Penn St
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