Saturday 9/5/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
9:57 AM
MEMPHIS -19
ARKANSAS ST. @ MEMPHIS | 9/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
The Memphis defense has improved over the past three seasons and they come in with the star of their offense, Brady White, still on the team. He improved in his junior campaign and starts with an Arkansas State defense that couldn’t stop anyone in Sun Belt play. They allowed 34 PPG and 479 YPG. They also allowed 5.1 yards per rush. New Tigers RB Kylan Watkins should take advantage of the system after averaging 5.2 yards per rush in limited play last year. The spread has dropped, with Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell opting out. He is worth 1-point to the number. The Tigers were 7-0 at home. I’m on Memphis to cover and do the bulk of the scoring in getting this total over.
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 MEMP ATS PICKS | +200
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARKST ATS PICKS | +90
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Emory Hunt
CFB Season 2019-2020
Final Record
ATS
8-5 Aug
24-15 Sept
35-18 Oct
28-18 Nov
2-2 Dec
97-58 63% ATS Regular Season
Bowls
19-20 49%
Moneyline 0-0
Totals 0-0
All 116-78 60%
Net Units +34.1 at 5% juice
FEATURED PICK
ARMY -3.5
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:14 PM
Defensively, Middle Tennessee State has an excellent safety in Gregory Grate Jr., who I expect to have an extremely active role against Army. What is troubling about this matchup is that the Blue Raiders' defense has had to replace seven starters, and this matchup against Army wasn't originally on the schedule as it was a replacement game for a contest cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. It's tough to prepare for the triple option on such short notice, especially after not practicing in the spring and having truncated summer workouts.
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARMY ATS PICKS | +90
FEATURED PICK
SMU -22
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:12 PM
With four players stuck in quarantine, including starting QB Tyler Vitt, makes this an even bigger hill to climb for the Bobcats. SMU has QB Shane Buechele airing it out behind all five returning offensive lineman, leading an offense that was seventh in the nation in scoring last season. I expect this one to get out of hand pretty quickly.
3-1 IN LAST 4 SMU ATS PICKS | +190
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Barrett Sallee
ARKANSAS ST. +19
ARKANSAS ST. @ MEMPHIS | 9/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:24 PM
I love Tigers quarterback Brady White and everything that first-year coach Ryan Silverfield brings to the table. The transition from coach Mike Novell shouldn’t be too challenging. But the Red Wolves are no slouch in the quarterback department either with Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher going into the season as “co-starters.” Coach Blake Anderson will crank up his multi-dimensional offense and at least keep it within the number.
UNDER 69.5
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:22 PM
As you see, I’m clearly backing SMU this year — especially because of that offense. But in Game 1, with very little time to work out some minor changes under new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, there could be some growing pains. Because of that, expect a sloppy game that the Mustangs handle with ease. They just won’t win any beauty contests.
SMU -22
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:20 PM
Check out the AAC predictions we posted on CBSSports.com, and you’ll notice how high I am on the future conference champion SMU Mustangs. Sonny Dykes has quarterback Shane Buechele back on a team that is loaded with talent — both homegrown and through transfers — including star wide receiver Reggie Roberson. There won’t be a home field advantage regardless of the crowd, Texas State was 0-4-1 against the spread at home last year and is still deep in rebuilding mode.
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Mike Tierney
OVER 69
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
3:23 PM
The total has understandably inched up but, being still shy of 70, it demands an Over. Both defenses were sieves last season, allowing about 33 points per game each. SMU averaged 43 points scored and slapped 47 on Texas State a year ago. Bobcats QB Tyler Vitt is quarantined, but he likely had lost the starting gig to Memphis transfer Brady McBride, who has a galaxy of targets at his disposal.
ARMY -3.5
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
3:08 PM
The Army offense is licking its chops. The Blue Raiders, whose defense was rock-bottom in the C-USA and sends out mostly new starters, confront an option offense that is unfamiliar to them. In last year’s matchup, the Black Knights maintained ball possession for about two-thirds of the clock. MTSU’s top two RBs opted out this season and what’s left of its quick-tempo offense cannot score from the sidelines.
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Ralph Michaels
3% 1H Army -3.0 (-110)
FIRST HALF #242 3% Army -2.5/-3 Middle Tenn 1:30 PM
When teams have an option opponent on their schedule they start working on them in the spring and do some work on them almost weekly in August. Well. Middle Tenn didn’t even have this game scheduled until Aug 10th. How often do you watch a team that has practiced to face the option look foolish in the opening drive against the schemes? Middle allowed 5.4 ypc on the road LY and this season and lost 3 of top 4 tacklers and 8 of top 12.
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Jeffrey James
#242 Army Black Knights -3 (1:30 edt) CBSSN
A very important fact here is that this game was not on the original schedules of these teams - it was a late COVID added game with all other schedules falling apart. That means the Blue Raiders were not anticipating playing Army and Army is one of the toughest teams to prepare for since not many teams run the triple option. Now through in MTSU only has 5 returning starters on defense and you have a young, inexperienced defense playing an offense they are completely unfamiliar with. Now add in an Army team coming into this season off of their worst season in years so they will be full of motivation here. Lay this small number with Army here.
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider)
CFB
Memphis -10.5 (1st half)
Middle Tennessee +4
Middle Tennessee/Army Under 27.5 (1st half)
SMU/Texas State Over 69
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Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
NBA
Best Bet - Play of the Day - Clippers/Nuggets Over 222
Regular Play - LA Clippers -9
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Tony Mejia (VegasInsider - NBA) - Raptors/Celtics Under 214
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Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider - NBA) - Denver Nuggets +9.5
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WUnderdog
NCAAFB
Middle Tennesee State/Army 55.5 Under
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Football Jesus NCAA football Underdog play Middle Tenn State +points
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ats baseball
5 yanks over
4 cleveland
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MLB(BOB BALFE)
9:15 PM EST
Rotation #929/930
Diamondbacks/Giants Over 9 runs
Bumgarner/Cahill
Madison Bumgarner returns home to San Fran for the first time as a visiting pitcher. This has not been his year and clearly his arm isn’t right at this point as hitters have crushed him just about every inning. Trevor Cahill left his last game with a hip issue so I am not sure how healthy he is either. Both teams should chase these starters very quickly. Look for a lot of runs. Take the Over.
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ats football
7 ark st
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Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
10:06 AM
L.A. CLIPPERS -9
DENVER @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 9/05 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Clippers torched the Nuggets in Game 1 on their way to a 23-point win. They have now won each of their last three games against the Nuggets by at least 13 points. The Clippers are not missing any of their key rotation players while the Nuggets greatly miss the scoring prowess of Will Barton (knee). With Barton out, the Clippers can focus their defensive efforts on slowing down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Despite this lofty line, I’ll take the Clippers to cover again.
124-73-3 IN LAST 200 NBA ATS PICKS | +4370
5-1 IN LAST 6 DEN ATS PICKS | +390
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAC ATS PICKS | +290
Sam Quinn
NBA JOURNALIST
7:12 AM
OVER 222.5
DENVER @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 9/05 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Clippers held up their end of the bargain in Game 1, scoring 120 points as no Nugget stood a chance against Kawhi Leonard. Denver didn't do its part, but that is likely to change for Game 2. The Nuggets aren't going to shoot 9-of-36 from behind the arc again, and the odds of them getting only 27 points from the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo again are close to zero. The offense should pick up in Game 2.
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC O/U PICKS | +90
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Jim Feist
NBA
3* Denver +9
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Tom Fornelli
BYU -125
BYU @ NAVY | 9/07 | 8:00 PM EDT
11:12 AM
No offense needs the practice and repetitions to be run well like a triple-option attack. Thanks to a truncated offseason, Navy hasn't had the time it normally would to prepare its offense for 2020. That along would be problematic, but what makes it more difficult is that Navy also has to replace the best player its ever had. I do not like BYU laying the points, but there is value on BYU on the money line.
UNDER 73.5
ARKANSAS ST. @ MEMPHIS | 9/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
11:09 AM
Considering there wasn't much spring practice for anybody this year, and summer workouts didn't exist, and fall camp was an alien experience for all, I wonder how efficient offenses will be early in the season. Offenses rely on repetition, and those reps weren't there this offseason. As a result, I think offense will suffer more than defense to start the year, so when I see a total this high, I'm going Under it.
MIDDLE TENN. +3.5
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
11:07 AM
I have a rather simple philosophy when it comes to betting games featuring service academies. First, we look to the Under. If we don't like the total, we move to Plan B. Fade academies as favorites and take them as dogs. Army is 10-15-1 as a home favorite under Jeff Monken, and is going against an MTSU team that will have the best QB on the field. So take the points.
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Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
YESTERDAY 1:13 PM
SMU -22.5
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but SMU is going to be dangerous offensively. The Mustangs come off a 10-3 season, their most wins since 1984. Head coach Sonny Dykes returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The offense is led by QB Shane Buechele, who passed for almost 4,000 yards and 34 TDs. He can also run the football. The Mustangs averaged 43 points per game last year, seventh in the nation. Buechele still has several weapons on offense at his disposal. Texas State was 3-9 last year and finished 121st in the nation at just over 18 points per contest. The Mustangs clobbered the Bobcats last season, 47-17.
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SDQL
N.Y. METS -153
PHILADELPHIA @ N.Y. METS | 9/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
7:20 AM
The Phillies are 0-8 before Game 100 in the second game of a road series as underdogs when they had more strikeouts than hits in the series opener. The Mets, on the other hand, are 11-0 in the second game of a series as 140-plus favorites after a game in which they scored in fewer innings than their opponent. We are on NY.
50-30-1 IN LAST 81 MLB PICKS | +267
5-2 IN LAST 7 PHI ML PICKS | +354
CINCINNATI -125
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 9/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
7:18 AM
Cincinnati was upset 4-3 in the nightcap yesterday as a 200 favorite. Anthony DeSclafani has been excellent at picking up his teammates in this spot. Cincinnati is 8-0 since the start of last season with DeSclafani when seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite. DeSclafani has allowed an average of 1.38 runs in these eight starts. Since last June, the Pirates are 0-8 after a one-run win as an underdog in which it used more than three pitchers. The Pirates lost these eight games by an average of 4.25 runs, and in their last active date, they were no-hit by Lucas Giolito. We are on Cincinnati.
50-30-1 IN LAST 81 MLB PICKS | +267
TAMPA BAY -250
MIAMI @ TAMPA BAY | 9/05 | 6:40 PM EDT
7:16 AM
Miami had a lead after four and a half innings yesterday, but lost 5-4. They have not responded well to similar defeats, as the Marlins are 0-29 as 160-plus underdogs before Game No. 125 coming off a loss in which they held the lead. Tampa is a reliable 20-0 before Game 95 as a favorite of more than 135 in the second game of a home series when it used five-plus pitchers and allowed runs in at least two innings in the series opener. We are laying the number.
50-30-1 IN LAST 81 MLB PICKS | +267
CHI. WHITE SOX -216
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 9/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
7:14 AM
The offensive machine of the White Sox is difficult to contain. The Royals have not been competitive after allowing a lot of runs. Kansas City is 0-25 before Game 107 as a 160-plus home underdog after a home game in which they allowed five or more runs. Chicago has not exhibited any type of letdown after a win like yesterday’s. The White Sox are 13-0 as favorites off a win as favorites in which they never trailed, outscoring their opponent by an average of 4.08 runs per game. Eleven of the 13 wins are from this season. We make Chicago the play.
50-30-1 IN LAST 81 MLB PICKS | +267
8-0 IN LAST 8 CHW ML PICKS | +800
11-3 IN LAST 14 KC ML PICKS | +542
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John Bollman
L.A. DODGERS -180
COLORADO @ L.A. DODGERS | 9/05 | 9:10 PM EDT
11:25 AM
German Marquez is 2-5 with a 4.88 ERA this season and he has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 16 innings. Tony Gonsolin is 0-0 with a 0.51 ERA this season and he has allowed one run in four starts this season. The Dodgers are on fire right now having won six straight games and eight of their last 10 while the Rockies are just 5-5 in their last 10. Lay the Dodgers.
22-14 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +695
7-2 IN LAST 9 LAD ML PICKS | +548
SEATTLE -130
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 9/05 | 9:10 PM EDT
11:25 AM
Kyle Gibson is 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA this season and he allowed four runs in 4.1 IP in his start against the Mariners this season. Justus Sheffield is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA this season and he only allowed one run in six innings in his start against the Rangers this season. He struggled last outing with his command, but he had pitched three straight quality starts before that. The Rangers have the fourth worst OPS in the league against lefties at .642, take the Mariners.
22-14 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +695
18-11 IN LAST 29 TEX ML PICKS | +496
15-8 IN LAST 23 SEA ML PICKS | +451
TORONTO -130
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 9/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
11:24 AM
Ryan Weber will be making the start against the Blue Jays and he is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA this season. He has faced the Blue Jays twice and allowed five runs in 5.2 IP. Chase Anderson has also faced the Red Sox twice, giving up four runs in eight IP. The Blue Jays have won seven of 10 while the Red Sox have lost seven of 10, take the Blue Jays.
22-14 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +695
4-0 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS | +400
9-7 IN LAST 16 BOS ML PICKS | +115
PHILADELPHIA +150
PHILADELPHIA @ N.Y. METS | 9/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
11:23 AM
Seth Lugo is starting for the Mets tonight, he is 1-2 with a 2.12 ERA this season but he is not completely stretched out as a starter yet so the Mets 15th ranked bullpen will get some work. Spencer Howard picked up his first career win in his last outing and he will be looking to build off that performance. The Phillies have won five straight and nine of their last 10 games while the Mets are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, the Phillies shouldn’t be this big of dogs.
22-14 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +695
OAKLAND -111
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND | 9/05 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:22 AM
Sean Manaea is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA this season and he is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts. Chris Paddack is 3-3 with a 4.43 ERA this season, however he is coming off his best start of the season. Paddack has been slightly worse on the road in his career and he has given up more home runs. Not to mention, the As have the best bullpen in the league while the Padres are in the bottom third, take the value in the Athletics.
22-14 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +695
15-8 IN LAST 23 SD ML PICKS | +674
2-1 IN LAST 3 OAK ML PICKS | +105
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John Misener
9/5/20:
Oakland Under 8.5 -110
Philadelphia Over 9.5 -105
Dodgers Under 5 -110
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Yankees -1.5 runs -140
White Sox -1.5 runs -145
Diamondbacks +125
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Insider Sports
5* Atlanta -1.5
3* Army -3.5
3* Stephen F Austin/UTEP Over 54
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The Winners Circle
Saturday Plays -- Sports Bankroll ($5920) -- Yesterday (+390)
MLB Baseball -- Playing all games straight $100/each
Play New York Yankees -250 over Baltimore
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -190 over Colorado
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NBA Basketball -- Playing all games straight $100/each
Play Boston +1 over Toronto
Play Denver +9 over Los Angeles Clippers
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NHL Hockey -- Playing all games straight $100/each
Play New York Islanders -130 over Philadelphia
Mark
The Winners Circle
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Sportbook Guru
Saturday
NHL
3 units NY Islanders -125
NBA
3 units Boston -1
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Adam Silverstein
FLORIDA FAVORITE
YESTERDAY 10:41 PM
ARMY -3
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
Teams plan all year to play Army West Point and still struggle to stop their triple option. While Middle Tennessee has plenty of talent, it goes into this game on short notice with limited preparation time for the coaches and limited practice time for the players. Expect to see plenty of ball control offense from the Black Knights as per usual. Remember, the Army offense does not change much year to year, so the guys coming back are largely doing the same thing they did last year. In a Week 1 game, I'll go with the short favorite -- though I wish I got it earlier in the week when it was under a field goal.
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Donn Wagner's Grand Slam Club (The Swami - MLB) - 8 Unit Athletics/Padres Under 8.5
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Elite Sports Picks
Eastern Kentucky +24 over Marshall (NCAAF)
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Insider Sports Report
5* Atlanta (Fried) -1.5 runs -125 over Washington (Fedde)
Range: -110 to -150
3* Army -3.5 over Middle Tennessee St. (NCAAF)
Range: -2 to -6
3* Stephen F. Austin/U.T.E.P. OVER 54 (NCAAF)
Range: 52.5 to 56.5
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National Sports Service
4* L.A. Dodgers (Gonsolin) -1.5 runs -105 over Colorado (Marquez)
3* Toronto -1 over Boston (NBA)
3* Arkansas St. +18 over Memphis (NCAAF)
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Primetime Sports Picks For 09/05/20
4 Unit --> Toronto/Boston UNDER 214 (NBA)
3 Unit --> Cincinnati (Desclafani) -145 over Pittsburgh (Williams)
3 Unit --> Houston Baptist +25 over North Texas (NCAAF)
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Top Rank Sports Pick
4★ Army -3.5 over Middle Tennessee St. (NCAAF)
3★ Denver/L.A. Clippers OVER 222 (NBA)
3★ Seattle (Sheffield) -145 over Texas (Gibson)
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ASA: 3* Army
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Dave Essler
CFB (3*) Triple Dime Max Bet
MEMPHIS /ARKANSAS ST UNDER 74
celtics -1
anaheim angels ml
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider - NHL) - New York Islanders -130
Prop Wager - New York Islanders Over 2.5 goals -124
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Vince Akins (VegasInsider)
MLB
Dodgers -178
Mariners -127
Braves -258
Astros/Angels Over 7.5 (Game #1)
Giants/Diamondbacks Under 9
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Wayne Root
Pinnacle- mlb giants
Perfect play raptors
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Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
12:31 PM
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
COLORADO @ L.A. DODGERS | 9/05 | 9:10 PM EDT
The Dodgers continue to be the best team in baseball and they prove it every night. Los Angeles is 30-10 on the season. The Dodgers have dominated this series, winning 17 of the last 18 at home. The Rockies have dropped 17 of their last 23 games overall. It doesn’t matter who is pitching for the Dodgers, they have the best bats in baseball and provide plenty of run support for their starters. Play Los Angeles -1.5 runs at -105.
3-1 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS | +200
10-2 IN LAST 12 LAD ATS PICKS | +695
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newworldinsiders
OFFSHORE INSIDER: Marshall OV 53
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Profit On Sports
NBA: Celtics +1
NCAAF: Memphis Under 74
NCAAF: Army -3.5
MLB: Mets Under 9.5
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Super Lock Line
NCAAF: SMU -23.5
NCAAF: Army -3.5
MLB: Cincinnati Reds -130
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Sportsline Computer
CFB
Army -3.5
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Bill Marzano
L.A. CLIPPERS -9.5
DENVER @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 9/05 | 9:00 PM EDT
12:56 PM
The Clippers are looking to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. After their performance in the first game, there is no reason not to expect the same results. The Nuggets are still worn out both mentally and physically after a grueling seven-game series vs. the Jazz. The Clippers are healthy and their depth off the bench is too much for the Nuggets to deal with defensively. Los Angeles has too many offensive weapons for Denver to handle. The Clippers will once again wear the Nuggets down and blow them out.
6-1 IN LAST 7 NBA ATS PICKS | +490
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC ATS PICKS | +90
2-1 IN LAST 3 DEN ATS PICKS | +90
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Ben Burns UFC
Alistair Overeem
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PickersMx
Lady Pickers
75 Dimes
Over 69 SMU vs Texas St
La Barba Pickers
100 Dimes
Memphis Tigers - 18.5
Mushu
150 Dimes
SMU - 23
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Dodgers
We take
Colorado
Peabody had Middle Tennessee st early in CFB today that’s his only pick today in CFB
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Scott Spreitzer
4 - Vegas under 169.5
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