Sunday 10/4/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, MLB & NBA games.
Football Jesus
Cowboys , and OVER total Philly/49ers
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R.J. White
LAS VEGAS +3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
12:40 AM
I know the scoreboard didn't look great in the Raiders' loss to the Patriots, but I thought they played pretty well for most of that game considering their offensive injuries, and I chalk a big part of the loss up to fumble luck going against them. The Bills are 3-0 but have been shaky in their last two games, including on the road in Miami against a far worse team than this Las Vegas squad. The Bills struggled to stop the run against the Rams, and that's not good news with Josh Jacobs coming to town. With Darren Waller likely to be in better health this week, I think the Raiders have a much better chance of winning this game than the line suggests.
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
255 ARI / 256 CAR OVER 51.0 Pinnacle double-dime bet
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 4:25PM
275 BUF -2.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 276 LVR double-dime bet
Analysis: This one is all about cluster injuries, and the Raiders inability to beat winning teams.
Jon Gruden's Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record. The Bills are my third rated team in the AFC, and certainly have the looks of a team that will finish the year with a winning record.
The injury situation for Las Vegas is troubling as well. The Raiders go into this game likely without all three of their projected wide receiver starters from the offseason in Tyrell Williams, Bryan Edwards, and Henry Ruggs. The Raiders are also without LG Richie Incognito, and RT Trent Brown is banged up as well.
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020
265 LAC 7.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 266 TAM double-dime bet
Analysis: The Chargers are a team you want to back getting points, not laying them. Anthony Lynn during his Chargers tenure is 8-4-2 ATS as an underdog, and the Chargers rarely lose by big margin. Even during last years horrendous 11 loss season, only two of the losses were by more then a touchdown.
The Bucs have the reputation of a high flying offense due to the big names of Tom Brady, Gronk, Evans, Godwin... but the Bucs are a defensive led football team with an offense still not clicking on all cylinders. Their offensive line is pretty average, and Brady is still serviceable but not the Brady of old.
No QB had a bigger drop off in completion % last year under pressure then Tom Brady. He also had 3rd biggest drop off in YPA when under pressure. This season has not been much different. Brady is averaging 3.4 YPA under pressure, and the Chargers rank 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate.
The Bucs have a tremendous defense, but Justin Herbert has thrown for 7.8 YPA so far this season, and put some life into the passing game for the Chargers. In a game where I liked the under (we missed out on the 45), I expect points to be at a premium for both teams, which favors the underdog getting over a touchdown.
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 3:51 PM
UNDER 43.5
L.A. CHARGERS @ TAMPA BAY | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Chargers have been a dead Under team this year, as the combination of an inconsistent offense with a strong defense has prevented them from scoring more than 20 or giving up more than 23. The Bucs are also trending toward being an Under team as their defense rounds into form, and their excellence against the run means this game will be put in Justin Herbert's hands. As such, I think we see something similar to the Chargers' 21-16 loss last week, keeping us under the total, and I'm going to hop on it now as I think the line continues to sink during the week.
20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
5-4 IN LAST 9 LAC O/U PICKS | +61
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Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 6:55 PM
PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
Philly would lose out on the injury comparison with most opponents, but not this one. Ten starters were absent last Sunday for San Fran, which was fortunate to play the Jets, and most need more time to rehab. Though the Eagles are winless, they are a cut (or two) above New York. The Niners could be starved for points against the league’s No. 8 pass defense, which is coming off an eight-sack performance. Turnover tendencies tend to revert to the mean, and the Eagles’ league-worst minus-8 should improve if Carson Wentz can shake the interception bug.
12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
8-5 IN LAST 13 PHI ATS PICKS | +249
4-3 IN LAST 7 SF ATS PICKS | +65
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Sportsline Computer
NFL
Best 5-team parlay:
Take Cowboys (-4.5) over Browns
Take Bears (+2.5) over Colts
Take Ravens (-13) over Washington
Take Buccaneers (-7.5) over Chargers
Take Bills (-3) over Raiders
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Hank Goldberg
NFL Best Bets
Here are Hammer's picks, posted Wednesday:
L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
The Giants are horrible, their QB is a turnover machine. The Rams will be ticked off after that frustrating loss in Buffalo. It's a big number but I don't care. The Giants can't score.
NEW ORLEANS -4
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Lions just broke their 11-game losing streak, but they still have problems in their secondary and they're facing a New Orleans team that should get Michael Thomas back. Alvin Kamara may be the best back in the league right now. I don't think Detroit's defense has an answer for him.
ARIZONA -3.5
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
Kyler Murray isn't going to throw three interceptions this week, not against this defense. I think Arizona bounces back strong against a Carolina team that just snapped a long losing streak. Lay the points.
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R.J. White
GREEN BAY -7
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY | 10/05 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:00 PM
I was higher than most on the Falcons coming into the season after their second-half improvements last year, thinking they could be solid defensively and good-to-great on the offensive side of the ball with their two first-round picks on the line entering their second year. But I don't know how the Falcons come back mentally after back-to-back meltdowns the scale of what we've seen of the last two weeks. The Packers defense hasn't played well enough to trust them on this big number against a solid team, but again, the Falcons will have to prove they can rebound mentally from the last two weeks.
20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
38-7 IN LAST 45 GB ATS PICKS | +3002
29-17 IN LAST 46 ATL ATS PICKS | +1015
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Mike Tierney
ARIZONA -3.5
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:44 PM
One unexpected outcome for each -- a Cardinals loss, a Panthers win -- has shrunk this spread too much. Arizona was awesome in the two wins, then fell on a buzzer-beating field goal. Carolina dropped its first two games, then squeezed past the Chargers and their rookie QB. The gap between offenses is vast. Arizona’s is potent with budding QB star Kyler Murray; Carolina’s is crippled minus RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle). Assuming Murray does not serve up three interceptions again, the Panthers will stay south of 20 points -- well below what it will take for a W.
12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ATS PICKS | +500
4-1 IN LAST 5 CAR ATS PICKS | +288
INDIANAPOLIS -2.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:42 PM
Yes, Bears QB Nick Foles was killer in relief of Mitch Trubisky, which has earned him a start. Keep in mind, though, that he chewed up Atlanta’s awful defense to rally Chicago. Indianapolis is the polar opposite, ranked first in passing yards and points allowed. Nor does Foles have the crutch that is versatile RB Tarik Cohen (ACL). The Bears are the weakest of the seven 3-0 teams and are overdue for a defeat. Indy’s offense has exercised the proper caution with QB Philip Rivers, who has gone from a playmaker to an effective game manager.
12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
13-8 IN LAST 21 IND ATS PICKS | +423
6-2 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS | +376
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Micah Roberts
OVER 54
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:20 PM
The Dolphins offense has looked great the past two weeks and should fare well against the Seahawks' No. 32-ranked defense that allows 497.3 yards per game. Seattle games are averaging a 37-29 score, and Russell Wilson has thrown 14 TD passes. The Seahawks offense is clicking better than ever and will continue to do so Sunday. Look for an entertaining game. I’m on the Over.
4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +400
6-2 IN LAST 8 SEA O/U PICKS | +380
PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
2:14 PM
I love how four key 49ers backups made the most of their playing time against the Giants in a 36-9 win, one week after a lot of the injuries happened on the MetLife Stadium turf in their 31-13 win against the Jets. But those are two of the lowest-rated teams in football; everyone is beating those teams. And the combination of those big 49ers wins and the Eagles not even coming close to sniffing a cover has given us a massively inflated number to jump on. Give me the desperate Eagles and the points in what could be an outright win.
4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +400
4-0 IN LAST 4 SF ATS PICKS | +400
15-10 IN LAST 25 PHI ATS PICKS | +395
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Bill Marzano
L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
3:00 PM
The Rams lost an epic game last week at Buffalo and will take it out on the hopeless Giants. Daniel Jones is just 3-12 in 15 career starts. He has been sacked nine times. The Giants’ banged up offensive line is going to have much trouble with the Los Angeles pass rush. Jones continues to turn the ball over at a very alarming rate and the offense ranks second-to-last in the NFL. New York is also thin on defense. The Rams rank third in the NFL in rushing at 170 yards per game. New York has covered in eight of the last nine meetings, but Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS following a ATS loss.
10-6 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +340
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +300
3-0 IN LAST 3 NYG ATS PICKS | +300
OVER 54
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:29 PM
Scoring is way up in the NFL. The Overs have been hitting at an amazing clip this year at 29-19, 60 percent on the season. This total has surprisingly come down a couple of points since it first opened. Russell Wilson has tossed an NFL record 14 TDs in just three games and Seattle is averaging 37 points per game. The Seahawks defense ranks last in the NFL in passing yards and total yards allowed and is banged up. The Over has cashed in five straight home games for the Dolphins. Seattle has excelled in early start times on the East Coast.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +300
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Larry Hartstein
MIAMI +6.5
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:55 PM
This is a great spot for the Dolphins, who had extra rest following their impressive performance in Jacksonville. The Seahawks have been terrible defending the pass and they'll likely be without safety Jamal Adams (groin). He was one of 25 Seahawks on the initial injury report. Even if Russell Wilson puts Seattle up by double digits, Ryan Fitzpatrick can get us the backdoor cover.
4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
8-3-2 IN LAST 13 SEA ATS PICKS | +470
7-3 IN LAST 10 MIA ATS PICKS | +370
JACKSONVILLE +3
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:34 PM
The Jaguars had extra rest while the Bengals played five full quarters at Philadelphia. Look for Jacksonville's offense, which should get No. 1 wideout D.J. Chark back from a chest injury, to bounce back from a poor performance in the Thursday night spotlight. Grab the points.
4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
11-7-1 IN LAST 19 JAC ATS PICKS | +345
13-9-1 IN LAST 23 CIN ATS PICKS | +307
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Emory Hunt
PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
1:58 PM
While the Eagles enter this game a bit banged up on both sides of the ball, their defense still has the ability to slow down the 49ers on offense. Yes, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best in the game, and will have the team ready to play and play well. But to me, a full touchdown against an extremely desperate Eagles team looking to stave off implosion is a bit too much.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
27-15-1 IN LAST 43 PHI ATS PICKS | +1036
2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +90
BALTIMORE -13
BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:56 PM
Baltimore looked completely out of sync offensively against the Chiefs last week. Fortunately for the Ravens, they face a Washington offense that has problems in protecting the QB, getting off to fast starts, and running the football. This matchup is a lopsided one, which explains the high point spread. You can definitely find comfort in the Ravens this week.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
11-3 IN LAST 14 BAL ATS PICKS | +770
L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
1:54 PM
The Giants defense does a great job early in games, but their offense isn't able to take advantage of the extra possessions. Unfortunately for them, the Rams don't need many possessions to strike quick. But if you are consistently giving them the ball because you can't score, they will more than surely make you pay with points. And those points are usually touchdowns.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
17-11-2 IN LAST 30 LAR ATS PICKS | +483
6-3 IN LAST 9 NYG ATS PICKS | +269
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
261 MIN 5.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 262 HOU double-dime bet
Analysis: I was waiting for corona related news to break on this game before releasing. The Vikings are practicing today and have no corona cases. Feel good enough about it to play Minnesota.
I make this game Minnesota +3.25, giving us value at anything over that, and I believe the market has over reacted to the corona related news from the Titans and Vikings game. People will speak about the Vikings practice week being thrown off (they did not practice on Wednesday), but that is not worth a 1.5 point line move in my opinion. The emergence of WR Justin Jefferson is HUGE for a team struggling at playmaker aside from Thielen and Cook. Minnesota has edges in the run game on offense against a Texans rush defense allowing an insane 5.8 YPC to opposing running backs, and also in the passing game against a Texans defense that can't take advantage of Minnesota's offensive weakness (offensive line). This Texans defense also had to play 76 snaps last week while their offense was on the field for only 47 snaps, so fatigue could a small issue for Houston
While Houston has some clear matchup edges for their passing game (which is implied into the line considering how high this total is), it's just flat out too many points that the Vikings are getting.
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
265 LAC / 266 TAM UNDER 43.5 Pinnaclesingle-dime bet
Analysis: This play would have been a 2* at the 45 opener, but I am downgrading it to a 1* since we missed the best number. I still believe it has value and should close around 42.
I spoke about in our Chargers write up how Brady struggles against pressure, making this is a bad matchup for the Bucs passing game. The Bucs are also dealing with injuries to their skill position players: RB Leonard Fournette is not practicing, but more importantly two of the Bucs top three wideouts in Godwin (out) and Miller (questionable) are banged up as well.
The Chargers injury report is uninspiring for their offense as well. C Mike Pouncey is already out, and RG Trai Turner, RT Bryan Bulaga, and WR Mike Williams are all questionable for this game.
Chargers games are averaging only 36.3 PPG through three games, and in a game where I have concerns for both offenses production, I have to play under despite the line moving earlier in the week.
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Warren Sharp
Add: Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl +400 (risk 1 unit) (available at both Fanduel, DraftKings and others) - just a value play on a bad line, it should be much lower than 4:1 with only one first round bye, the Chiefs winning the MNF game vs the Ravens and both remaining schedules - OK to bet thru 3.5:1
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Add: 257 Jacksonville Over 46 (0.75 units)
Add: 261 Minnesota Vikings Over 51.5 (0.75 units)
Add: 251 Indianapolis Colts Over 44 -115 (0.75 units)
Add: 275 Buffalo Bills Over 49.5 (1 unit)
Add: 277 Philadelphia Eagles Over 43 (1 unit)
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Stats Analytics Sports
NFL 15-7 ytd (68.2%) +15.8 Units (Does not include Thursday play on the Jets)
All plays 2* plays..
NFL
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Chicago Bears +3
Chicago Bears/Indianapolis Colts Under 44
Cleveland Browns/Dallas Cowboys Under 56
Baltimore Ravens/Washington Football Team Under 46
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Wunderdog
NFL
Seattle -6 @miami.
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King Creole Sports
NFL Sunday 3-Gm TOTALS TRIPLE PLAY
Over AZ at Carolina
Over NE at KC
Over Seattle at Miami
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Colin Cowherd Blazing 5
(8-7) YTD
Dallas -5.5 (Cleveland 26 Dallas 33)
Chicago +2.5 (Colts 23 Chicago 24)
Miami +6 (Seattle 27 Miami 26)
Tampa Bay -7 (LAC 23 Tampa 33)
Buffalo -3 (Buffalo 32 Las Vegas 27)
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Dave Essler
3* TOM
Chargers Under 45
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Brett Anderson
DETROIT +3.5
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
4:54 PM
This actually isn't the best spot for the Lions, as the Saints are getting desperate for a win while Detroit is coming off a good victory. But, boy, is New Orleans beat up. Six Saints starters have been ruled out, including both starting cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore, Janoris Jenkins) and Michael Thomas. They'll also be without Marcus Davenport, Jared Cook and Andrus Peat. Drew Brees is clearly struggling without Thomas, and it will be a tall task for the Saints D to get stops. Grab the points.
9-2 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS | +685
2-1 IN LAST 3 DET ATS PICKS | +90
CHICAGO +2.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:11 PM
The Colts have the NFL's top defense so far and they're coming off two dominant wins ... but let's not forget that they opened Jags-Vikings-Jets. Indy still managed to lose one of those, and now it's laying points on the road against a 3-0 team that upgraded at QB? It's never comfortable to pick against Frank Reich, but a costly Philip Rivers INT is always in play, and Rivers' offense is down two WRs (Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman) and a RB (Marlon Mack). Grab the points.
9-2 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS | +685
6-3 IN LAST 9 IND ATS PICKS | +269
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R.J. White
HOUSTON -3.5
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:12 PM
The Texans knew coming into the season that the first few weeks would be incredibly tough with their schedule, so I don't think they'll get as discouraged from being 0-3 as the Vikings should be. Minnesota is a legit winless team with a terrible pass defense and an inconsistent offense. Houston's rush defense has been abysmal, so maybe the Vikings can chew up first downs on the ground and stay in this for 60 minutes, but if they start to slip, do you have any confidence in Kirk Cousins storming back? Throw in what's functionally a short week for the Vikings with their facility closed due to the Titans' COVID-19 scare, and Houston should have the preparation and talent edge in this one.
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
35-9-3 IN LAST 47 MIN ATS PICKS | +2492
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ATS PICKS | +190
DALLAS -4.5
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:11 PM
The Cowboys can score any number of points in this matchup, because the Browns defense hasn't been impressive (and throw out that performance against Dwayne Haskins, who was telegraphing his throws in a way Dak Prescott won't). The Browns were actually in a tight game last week until Washington imploded offensively; that won't happen to Dallas, who is expected to have Tyron Smith back. The Browns have to win with the run, but Kareem Hunt is banged up and the Cowboys are 10th in yards per rush allowed. The Cleveland defense can't get stops (25th in points per drive allowed), and I don't have confidence in Kevin Stefanski keeping up in a shootout against this talented Cowboys offense.
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
13-8-2 IN LAST 23 CLE ATS PICKS | +417
JACKSONVILLE +3
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:11 PM
The Jaguars are coming off a Thursday night dud, but they'll roll into this one with extra rest against a team that just played 70 minutes of football with a quarterback who has thrown 105 passes over the last two weeks. Joe Burrow is obviously a young player at peak health, but at some point doesn't his arm have to start feeling a little bit of fatigue? Either way, I think the Jags are clearly the better team right now. Cincy is bottom two in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush on offense, so the Jags defense actually has a chance of looking decent. If we get the Gardner Minshew from the first two weeks, we'll wonder why the Jags weren't favored.
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
16-11 IN LAST 27 CIN ATS PICKS | +389
10-7 IN LAST 17 JAC ATS PICKS | +232
NEW ORLEANS -4
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:09 PM
I will continue to back the Saints because I don't think they can go from the presumptive favorites to win the NFC to being a bad team in the span of a month. This is a perfect matchup for them to get right, and here's why: Detroit has the highest opponent passer rating on throws less than five yards down the field, which lines up with the Saints' strength. Plus, the Lions are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, so Alvin Kamara should have a field day. The Lions needed a +3 turnover margin to barely beat the Cardinals, but New Orleans doesn't turn the ball over (at least, not unless Taysom Hill is under center). The Saints should cover here more often than not.
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
12-3-1 IN LAST 16 DET ATS PICKS | +869
6-4 IN LAST 10 NO ATS PICKS | +134
CHICAGO +2.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:07 PM
I don't think this is getting to three, so let's just take it here. Nick Foles takes what was an eight-win team on the market preseason to a nine- or 10-win team, and when you're at that level, you shouldn't be getting nearly a FG at home to anyone but Chiefs-level teams. The Colts aren't that just because they beat up on a pair of awful teams over the last two weeks. They benefited from six picks in those games, but Foles is a lot better at protecting the ball. He may not win games with his arm, but Philip Rivers won't either at this point. I think we're getting the better defense in this matchup, and maybe even the better offense?
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
30-15-1 IN LAST 46 CHI ATS PICKS | +1382
25-14-1 IN LAST 40 IND ATS PICKS | +929
ARIZONA -3
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
THU 10/1
This line has moved well off the lookahead of Cardinals -5 based on the surprising results of last week, when the Cards lost as favorites and the Panthers won as underdogs. But the Cards were also -3 in turnover margin in their close loss, while the Panthers were +4 in the same stat in their close win. Don't overreact! The Cardinals offense is consistently good (and should remain so even if DeAndre Hopkins sits), and the defense has played great situational football, ranking first in third-down percentage and second in red-zone percentage. I love the Cardinals to roll here unless we have another wild turnover swing, which would surprise me.
20-14 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS | +435
3-0 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +300
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Dave Cokin:
Vikings +4
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Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 8:44 PM
MINNESOTA +3.5
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
These are two 0-3 teams going at it and both of them have had a rough schedule to start, But I think Minnesota is still the better team which is why the spread looks off. Anything over +3 has value.
4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL PICKS | +290
12-4-1 IN LAST 17 HOU ATS PICKS | +767
8-6-2 IN LAST 16 MIN ATS PICKS | +136
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Emory Hunt
CAROLINA +3
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:09 PM
Over the last few weeks, we've seen steady improvement from the Panthers on the defensive side. Last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, they were finally able to turn the ball over. Offensively speaking, they have shown to move the ball pretty well. QB Teddy Bridgewater does a great job of setting his team up for success each week. What they have on defense that gives them a shot in this game is the athleticism to matchup with Arizona.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
12-7 IN LAST 19 ARI ATS PICKS | +420
3-0 IN LAST 3 CAR ATS PICKS | +300
INDIANAPOLIS -2.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:07 PM
With Nick Foles in the Bears lineup, expect the passing game to have much more consistency than it did with Mitch Trubisky under center. What the Bears lose by not having Trubisky starting at QB is in the athleticism department. Expect the Colts; defense to be extra aggressive in getting after Foles, as he won't be able to escape and extend plays like Trubisky. Also, the Colts' offense looks to be hitting its stride at the right time.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
4-2 IN LAST 6 CHI ATS PICKS | +181
3-2 IN LAST 5 IND ATS PICKS | +79
SEATTLE -6
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:06 PM
Seattle's offense can strike with the quickness from anywhere on the field. While they Seahawks will be without Chris Carson this week, I don't expect the run game to have that much of a drop off. Defensively for the Dolphins, they will have to play with contain against Russell Wilson, but also have to remain disciplined in coverage. That's a tough ask for a defense that is still trying to find its way at this juncture of the season.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
13-5 IN LAST 18 SEA ATS PICKS | +746
4-3 IN LAST 7 MIA ATS PICKS | +72
BUFFALO -3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:05 PM
Buffalo's 3-0 start is definitely legit, and the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL. Because of their continuity along both sides of the line of scrimmage, and in the secondary, the Bills just seems as if they are playing at a faster tempo than their opponents. The Raiders are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Patriots, and now have to deal with yet another athletic, mobile quarterback who can extend plays.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
3-1 IN LAST 4 BUF ATS PICKS | +195
KANSAS CITY -7
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:04 PM
The gameplan to stop the Chiefs is always a simple one: Don't allow them to possess the ball. But what gets lost on game day is how good their defense has gotten over the latter part of last season, into this year. The Patriots will stylistically try to attack the Chiefs defense in a similar way the Ravens tried to. I just don't know if the Patriots defensively can matchup up with the speed of Kansas City.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
10-1 IN LAST 11 NE ATS PICKS | +889
19-12 IN LAST 31 KC ATS PICKS | +598
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Larry Hartstein
LAS VEGAS +3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:41 PM
Defensive leader Nick Kwiatkoski (pectoral) is expected back for the Raiders, which will be huge for this struggling unit. Buffalo is 3-0 but has been far from dominant. Take the points with a Raiders team that should show up big at home all season.
4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +165
14-8-2 IN LAST 24 BUF ATS PICKS | +504
3-2 IN LAST 5 LV ATS PICKS | +86
ARIZONA -3
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:37 AM
I expect DeAndre Hopkins to play, and for Kyler Murray to rebound strong from his three-interception debacle. We're getting great value here on the Cards coming off an uncharacteristically bad performance. Lay it.
4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +165
4-1 IN LAST 5 ARI ATS PICKS | +289
3-1 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +190
HOUSTON -3.5
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:03 AM
We're getting good value in this line because the Texans are 0-3. Look who they've played: the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers. Lay it as Deshaun Watson exposes a terrible Minnesota defense.
4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +165
19-4-1 IN LAST 24 MIN ATS PICKS | +1455
22-12-1 IN LAST 35 HOU ATS PICKS | +890
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Las Vegas Cris
5% - Buffalo Bills -3
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MARCO D'ANGELO ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (261) Minnesota Vikings at (262) Houston Texans
Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (-110)
3% (261) MINNESOTA +3.5
The public will look at this game and say both teams are 0-3 but look at who Houston has played. There is no question Houston has played the toughest schedule in the league so far but that defense leaves a lot to be desired. I just can’t lay points with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Teams are running the football right at the Houston defense which is allowing 5.2 yards per attempt. Add in Minnesota Coach Zimmer is a huge advantage over Houston Coach O’Brien. Going back to the start of last season Houston has lost 8 straight games ATS if they played on the road in their last game. TAKE MINNESOTA as my 3% NFL UPSET SHOCKER .
4% NFL 2 TEAM TEASER GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (257) Jacksonville Jaguars at (258) Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 (-110)
4% NFL 2 TEAM 6 PT TEASER
(257) JACKSONVILLE +8.5
(266) TAMPA BAY -0.5
4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (277) Philadelphia Eagles at (278) San Francisco 49ers
Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 8:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +6.0 (-110)
4% (277) PHILADELPHIA +6
Will anyone want the Eagles this week? The Eagles look like a dumpster fire right now while the 49ers are coming off a big blowout win over the hapless Giants. Last Week San Francisco won big as they were in the injured player theory and they were playing a bad team in the Giants. Teams usually do well that first game when they have a star or stars out. Now it’s week 2 of the injured player theory and teams who win and cover the first game after the injury are now a go against in the second week. No matter if the injured players are still out or not as you don’t get the same intensity from the rest of the team as you had that first game with everyone playing at a different level to compensate for the loss of a key player or players. At 0-2-1 this is a must game for Philadelphia but fortunately for them they play in the NFC East where 7 or 8 wins might be enough to win the division. Philly has killed themselves with TO’s as they are on the wrong side of a 8-1 TO margin. You are not going to win games with 8 TO’s in 3 games. San Francisco beating The Jets and Giants in back to back weeks doesn’t impress me as all it does is give us line value with the Eagles. This is a must game for Philadelphia and they take this right down to the wire. Philadelphia 27-24. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as my 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
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Elite Sports Picks
New Orleans/Detroit UNDER 54.5 (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Chicago +3 over Indianapolis (NFL)
Range: +4.5 to +.5
3* Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland (NFL)
Range: -3 to -7
3* Miami +9 over L.A. Lakers (NBA)
Range: +10.5 to +6.5
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National Sports Service
5* Miami +6 over Seattle (NFL)
3* Minnesota/Houston UNDER 54 (NFL)
3* L.A. Lakers/Miami UNDER 218.5 (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks For 10/04/20
4 Unit --> Miami +6 over Seattle (NFL)
3 Unit --> New Orleans -3 over Detroit (NFL)
3 Unit --> L.A. Chargers +7.5 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 10/04/20
4★ New Orleans/Detroit UNDER 54.5 (NFL)
3★ Jacksonville +2.5 over Cincinnati (NFL)
3★ L.A. Lakers/Miami OVER 218.5 (NBA)
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Matt Blunt
NFL Best Bet - Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
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Michael Crosson
NBA Finals Game #3 - Lakers ahead 2-0
TV: ABC - Time 7:30pm
Best Bet Los Angeles Lakers -9
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Dave Cokin
5% Vikings +4
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Gianni the Greek
5% Dolphins +7
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PREZ NFL 5% MAIN EVENT I
Game: (265) Los Angeles Chargers at (266) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.0 (-110)
Play on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 (play good to -9)
5% play rating
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LMM Sports
10 pt. Teaser. Cowboys,Bears, and Jags.
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MTI
4.5* Minny +3.5
5* Jags over 49
4* Balt under 45.5
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Joe D'Amico
Baltimore
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Dave Cokin
4% Arizona Cardinals -3 (-120)
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Lee Sterling
30 Dolphins, Bucs, Bears
20 Heat
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Jeff Ma- browns, chargers, jaguars, patriots & 49ers
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Brian Edwards
Bucs -7 vs Chargers
Texans -4 vs Vikings
MNF: Packers -7 vs Falcons > 56.5
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newworldinsiders
maryland insider has wash+14
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ATS LOCK
7 vikes
7 vegas
7 frisco
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King Creole
NFL Sunday Night - Under Eagles / SF
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Wayne Root
MILL-Philadelphia +
——
No Limit-Carolina +
——
Perfect Play-Las Vegas Raiders +
Inner circle- lions
Pinnacles- Miami
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KENNY WHITE Gentlemen's Agreement Picks 10/4/2020
10/4/2020 at 1:00 PM
New Orleans Saints Vs. Detroit Lions
2 Units: New Orleans Saints -3 (+103)
10/4/2020 at 1:00 PM
Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 Units: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 (+108)
10/4/2020 at 4:25 PM
Buffalo Bills Vs. Las Vegas Raiders
2 Units: Buffalo Bills -3 (-110)
10/4/2020 at 8:20 PM
Philadelphia Eagles Vs. San Francisco 49ers
2 Units: Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 (-101)
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Howard Eskin- Wolf man -
NFL Picks for Sunday, October 4, 2020
New Orleans at Detroit
Pick: New Orleans
Arizona at Carolina
Pick: Carolina plus
Seattle at Miami
Pick: Miami plus
Buffalo at LA Raiders
Pick: Raiders plus
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Marco D'Angelo
5% NFL HIGH ROLLER
Game: (251) Indianapolis Colts at (252) Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-120)
5% (251) INDIANAPOLIS -2.5
Ok Chicago you finally got Mitchell Trubisky to the bench and you are 3-0 in the process. One would of thought for the Bears to finally bench him they would be 0-3 instead of 3-0. Trubisky was able to rally the team in week 1 in the 4th Q when Detroit lost 3 guys on defense then in week two they played the Hapless Giants. Chicago was life and death with the Giants in that win. Last week in Atlanta Trubisky did nothing against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They finally benched him and Foles rallied the Bears. Foles had no pressure as they were getting buried and an already bad defense was playing prevent defense Good Lord! This week Foles will be facing a stout defense. In 3 games the Colts defense has allowed just 676 yards or 225 per game. Minnesota scored just 11 points and the Jets scored just 7. The only reason Jacksonville scored anything was the fact Phillip Rivers had a couple TO’s in that 1st game. Indy out gained Jacksonville by 200 yards in the loss. Vegas is telling you all you need to know about this game. 2-1 team Indy is laying points on the road to a 3-0 team. In my opinion The Bears are a counterfeit 3-0. They were down big to both Atlanta and Detroit and were life and death with the winless Giants. Foles has always been a good back up but never put up big numbers as a starter other than that one year in Philadelphia. Hell he couldn’t hold the starting job in Jacksonville. Indianapolis wins 27-17. TAKE INDIANAPOLIS as my 5% NFL HIGH ROLLER GAME.
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CleInsiderSports
Bengals -3
Bears +2.5
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Big Al. Miami heat in NBA
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NFL(Bob Balfe)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars
Gardner Minshew is not a quality NFL player.* The only thing that keeps him a household name are his fun and game college frat like antics and it’s going to get real old fast for the Jags fan base.* This team was awful against the Dolphins last week and this week they have to go on the road with a first year offensive coordinator and a rookie running back and try to win on the road to the hungry Bengals and the #1 pick Joe Burrow.* Cincinnati is getting close to that first win and with the way the Jags played defense last week you have to think it’s coming.* This Bengals team is stacked on the offensive side of the ball and today I believe they get their breakout game.* Take the Bengals.
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Big Al
3* NY GIANTS
3* Eagles
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worldwager lock hou
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NORTHCOAST COMMUNITY LINE:
NFL TOW: BUFF/LV over 52.5
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The Grid Zone (The Swami NFL) - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-115)
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Vince Akins (VegasInsider NFL} - 4* Philadelphia Eagles +9.5
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H&H Sports (NFL) - Triple Dime Dallas Cowboys -3 (-120)
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Brian Bitler
10* Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-105)
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Tom Stryker
11-0 ATS NFL UNDEFEATED POWER ANGLE
Cowboys
25-5 ATS NFL SUNDAY NIGHT TOP SHELF BEST BET
Eagles
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Dr. Chuck
4% Jags over 45
4% Rams -7 1st half
4% Jimmy Graham over 29.5 receiving yards
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Gavazzi
4% New Orleans (-4) 1:00 PM ET
5% Arizona (-3) 1:00 PM ET
3% Dallas (-4-) 1:00 PM ET
3% Miami (+6-) 1:00 PM ET
4% OVER 51 Carolina
3% OVER 55- Dallas
3% UNDER 48 LA Rams
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Brett Anderson
ARIZONA -3
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:22 PM
It took three Kyler Murray interceptions to end the Cardinals' winning streak, but Murray should bounce back against the NFL's 30th ranked defense by DVOA. It looks like DeAndre Hopkins will play (at least that's what his tweet Saturday implied). The worry is that Arizona's a very public side laying points on the road, but the line dipping to Cards minus-3 is a bargain price ... it's about the same as Raiders at Panthers in Week 1, when Carolina still had a healthy Christian McCaffrey. Lay the points.
9-2 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS | +685
2-1 IN LAST 3 CAR ATS PICKS | +85
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +82
LAS VEGAS +3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 12:56 PM
The Bills are 3-0 behind Josh Allen, but aside from stomping the Jets, they haven't won by more than three points. Will they be able to in Vegas? We've only got a one-game sample size, but signs point to a big home-field advantage for the Raiders, even without fans. Buffalo's defense has been surprisingly bad so far (24th in DVOA) and despite the Raiders D also being full of holes, Vegas can keep this one close. Grab the points.
9-2 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS | +685
4-1 IN LAST 5 LV ATS PICKS | +291
2-1 IN LAST 3 BUF ATS PICKS | +98
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Adam Silverstein
NEW ORLEANS -3
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:21 AM
Forget buying into the idea that there's something significantly wrong with the Saints, which have lost two good teams over the last couple of weeks and are still one of my favorites to win the NFC. The Lions surprised with an upset of the Cardinals last week, but it took three truly awful interceptions by Kyler Murray to make that happen. This is still the team that got steam rolled by the Packers a couple weeks ago. Michael Thomas being out is no good for New Orleans, but Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons, namely Alvin Kamara. Saints roll.
15-10-1 IN LAST 26 NFL ATS PICKS | +430
19-10 IN LAST 29 NO ATS PICKS | +798
3-2 IN LAST 5 DET ATS PICKS | +81
ARIZONA -3
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:18 AM
Kyler Murray was horrendous last week to the point that it almost looked as if he was purposely throwing a couple of those interceptions. As such, the Cardinals are getting about three points of value on this line. With DeAndre Hopkins expected to play, a Murray gets a significant, game-changing weapon back in his arsenal. The Panthers have played respectably well all season, and I like Teddy Bridgewater. But over four quarters, Arizona should come out of this with a comfortable win.
15-10-1 IN LAST 26 NFL ATS PICKS | +430
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 CAR ATS PICKS | +190
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +90
DALLAS -3.5
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:12 AM
The Cowboys defense is what concerns me most, largely because it puts the Dallas in difficult spots and keeps it off the field for extended periods of time, giving it fewer opportunities to work. But it's not like the Browns have been anything decent on that end this season. This sets up as a get-right game for the Cowboys and Dak Prescott, and though we're suffering the hook, it's still a point down from open. Dallas should find success against Cleveland, as so many others do, and cover the number by a couple points at least.
15-10-1 IN LAST 26 NFL ATS PICKS | +430
12-3 IN LAST 15 CLE ATS PICKS | +865
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UDog
RAIDERS
Anyone see NORTHCOAST
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Mike Missanelli
Bengals, Cardinals, Rams
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Winning Sports Plays (J.R. Stevens)
Minnesota +4 (GOY)
Jacksonville +3
LA Chargers +8
Miami +6
Washington +15
Philadelphia +8
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Master Sports
NBA
4* Miami +9.5
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Brandon Lang
100 Dime
FOOTBALL BEST BET
#3 IN A ROW, (AND #9 OF 10)
This Line Is Off By 7 Points
Bears
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Al Demarco
Raise The Bar 20 Dime Winner
Bucs
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Ben burns
3* eagles
2* ravens game under
2* colts ml
2* dolphins first half
3* heat
2* heat game under
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Profit On Sports
NFL: New Orleans -3
NFL: Dallas -4
NFL: Chargers/Tampa Bay Over 42.5
NBA: Miami Heat +9.5
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Bondi
7* Dallas
3* Houston
3* Chicago
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Ultra Sports 10/4
bears
bills
lions
dolphins
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Stephen Oh
BALTIMORE -14
BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:09 PM
I don't like laying this many points on the road, but the Ravens will be highly motivated to make amends for their loss on Monday to Kansas City. The Chiefs are a tough matchup for Baltimore's defense, but Washington's injury-riddled offense won't be. My model says the Ravens cover more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this number.
5-1 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +390
4-3 IN LAST 7 BAL ATS PICKS | +74
DALLAS -3.5
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:02 PM
Dallas may have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but Cleveland is a run-first team, and I don't trust Baker Mayfield to make enough plays through the air to keep up with the Cowboys. My model says Dallas covers more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.
5-1 IN LAST 6 NFL ATS PICKS | +390
6-2 IN LAST 8 CLE ATS PICKS | +380
2-1 IN LAST 3 DAL ATS PICKS | +85
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NorthCoast
Seattle over 3.5
Dal,bear 3*
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Bryant
3% Jags
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Lenny Stevens
20 eagles
20 Seattle
10 Detroit
10 rams
10 buff
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John Rainey aka The Rainman
5☆ Bills -3'
3☆ Texans -3'
1☆ Saints -3'
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Bill Marzano
L.A. LAKERS -9.5
L.A. LAKERS @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 7:30 PM EDT
10:47 AM
The Heat put up a fight in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to challenge the Lakers, who are looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. As of now, Miami's Bam Adebayo (neck) and Goran Dragic (foot) are doubtful after getting hurt in the opener. The Heat stayed in Game 2 because they went to the free-throw line 34 times, but they got hammered on the offensive boards. The Lakers took a ton of 3-pointers and beat the Heat at their own game. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are playing at a very high level, one Miami just can't match.
22-12-1 IN LAST 35 NBA PICKS | +815
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 LAL ATS PICKS | +150
5-4 IN LAST 9 MIA ATS PICKS | +60
OVER 56
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:28 AM
Dallas is just 1-2 on the season but leads the NFL in passing offense (490.7) and total offense (383.3) and is scoring 29.3 points per game. Defense has been the issue, allowing 32.3 points per game, and the Cowboys will face the No. 3 rushing attack in the NFL; the Browns are averaging 170.3 yards per game on the ground and will try to keep the ball away from Dallas. The Over is 14-3 in the Cowboys' last 17 games following an ATS loss. Over is the play.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +300
SAN FRANCISCO -7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:20 AM
The 49ers are a banged-up group who won't have Jimmy Garoppolo under center but will have TE George Kittle. The Niners have been fortunate to play a weak part of their schedule having beat up on the hopeless Giants and Jets. They now face an 0-2-1 Eagles team that looks horrible. Philly QB Carson Wentz has tossed twice as many interceptions (six) than touchdowns (three). The Niners are sure to get after Wentz and a banged-up Philly offensive line. Eagles have turned the ball over eight times, the most in the NFL, while their defense has created only one. San Francisco is the play.
10-6 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +340
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ATS PICKS | +90
NEW ENGLAND +7
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY | 10/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:09 AM
The Chiefs destroyed the Ravens on Monday Night Football and are on a short week against a very good Patriots team. Its never easy betting against Patrick Mahomes, who continues to get better every game, however this is a solid Patriots team with Cam Newton at QB. Newton has four rushing TDs and should be able to move this offense against a banged-up KC defense. This game will be decided by a FG. Take the points.
10-6 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +340
5-2 IN LAST 7 NE ATS PICKS | +277
2-1 IN LAST 3 KC ATS PICKS | +90
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Zack Cimini
HOUSTON -3.5
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:12 AM
Two 0-3 teams that are far behind preseason expectations meet here. Minnesota has lost the turnover battle in each of its first three games, as QB Kirk Cousins has thrown a total of six interceptions. Houston has been disastrous but did put forth a quality half in last week’s loss to PIttsburgh. The Texans' difficult schedule - with losses against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers - should give them an extra edge. Grab Houston.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +305
8-3-1 IN LAST 12 MIN ATS PICKS | +469
2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +91
MIAMI +5.5
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:10 AM
The Seahawks are not just 3-0 overall but 3-0 ATS. Led by QB Russell Wilson, Seattle is averaging a whopping 37 points per game. Now, the Seahawks face a Dolphins team that has had extra days of rest after last Thursday’s win over the Jaguars. In high-profile games, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tends to shine the most. Grab the value on the Dolphins to end the Seahawks' ATS streak.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +305
3-0 IN LAST 3 SEA ATS PICKS | +300
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +95
DALLAS -3.5
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:07 AM
Dallas is 0-3 ATS while its defense has yielded 38 points or more in consecutive weeks. Although Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has shown strides at home, he has yet to do so on the road. In fact, the Browns have lost seven straight road games by an average of 18 points. Grab the Cowboys.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +305
6-2 IN LAST 8 DAL ATS PICKS | +388
3-0-1 IN LAST 4 CLE ATS PICKS | +300
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Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
11:00 AM
UNDER 55.5
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Over has been a popular play in this game, and the general rationale makes sense" The Seahawks have one of the top offenses in the NFL and the statistically worst defense, providing an easy path to the Over. But not only are they due for a potential letdown spot following consecutive tight games against the Patriots and Cowboys, they are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 as a road favorite. The Miami defense also showed vast improvement in holding the Jaguars to 13 points in last outing.
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Leiner 3000* over Chargers/Bucs 42
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executive...400-650..400 sea and indy
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Bob Balfe
Car/az over53.5
Cincy -2// jx
Mn/hou over 53.5
Mia+5.5//sea
Mia-sea over 54.5
Tb-7// lac
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Mike Tierney
BUFFALO -3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:07 PM
Josh Allen is becoming the QB that the football universe thought David Carr would be. Not that the Raiders veteran is substandard, but his Bills counterpart is approaching elite status. Allen's passer rating (124.8) trails only the otherworldly Russell Wilson. He has never had a WR on his side like newcomer Stefon Diggs. Allen could pick apart a Vegas secondary that will be without CB Damon Arnette (thumb) and maybe S Johnathan Abram (shoulder). Carr could be missing his reliables, with WRs Henry Ruggs (hamstring) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) iffy. The Bills have avoided an ATS defeat in nine of their last 11 roadies.
12-8 IN LAST 20 NFL ATS PICKS | +315
6-1-1 IN LAST 8 BUF ATS PICKS | +494
2-1 IN LAST 3 LV ATS PICKS | +94
DETROIT +3
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:04 PM
The Saints own the shiniest ATS road record in the past four-plus seasons. However, it was forged with teams healthier than this one and with a stronger-armed QB Drew Brees. In obvious decline, he is limiting downfield throws. The most serious absentee is Brees’ favorite batterymate, WR Michael Thomas (ankle). Five other starters, including both cornerbacks, are casualties. The Lions will be more relaxed after burying an 11-game losing streak.
12-8 IN LAST 20 NFL ATS PICKS | +315
4-0-1 IN LAST 5 DET ATS PICKS | +400
UNDER 49
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:01 PM
This number has inflated to nearly to 50, which is illogical with a team (Jacksonville) that plays at the league’s slowest pace. Expect the Jaguars to adhere to the ground, given Cincinnati's defense stops the pass better than the run. Joe Burrow might be missing RB Joe Mixon (chest), which would place extra burden on the rookie QB. Two of the three games for both teams have finished below this figure.
14-11-1 IN LAST 26 NFL PICKS | +185
5-1 IN LAST 6 JAC O/U PICKS | +395
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