Sunday 8/15/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games
Martin Green
Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad (Sunday, 2 p.m. ET)
Real Sociedad +0.5 +105 (1 unit)
Both teams to score -150 (1 unit)
Antoine Griezmann to score +115 (0.5 unit)
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Igor Mello
Flamengo vs. Sports Recife Under 2.5 +105
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Alan Scozzari Sport
GUARANTEED GOY C WAGER
France Ligue 1
Marseille -1 -110
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mega-bet-ticket
U. De Chile – Cobresal : Over 2.5 @ 2.00
Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano : Over 2.5 @ 1.90
Total Odds : 3.80
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james-martingale
FRANCE: Ligue 1
Lens – St Etienne
Second Half : Over 1.5 Goals
Odds : 2.10 / 1 units
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dubaibets asia
France : Ligue 1
Reims – Montpellier
Montpellier +0 @ 1.90
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Kyle Akins
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 08/15 | 1:05 PM EDT
ATLANTA -153
ANALYSIS: On paper, this might seem like an unusual line with Washington RHP Paolo Espino having a significantly better ERA than Atlanta LHP Drew Smyly. However, Espino has an xFIP more than a run higher than his ERA and is due for regression. Washington never led in Saturday's 12-2 loss. Since July 10, the Nationals are 0-6 as underdogs after they lost and never led in their previous game. Washington also is 0-8 since Sept. 12, 2020 as an underdog after a game as a home dog in which it allowed at least six runs.
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost with the Orioles and Pirates yesterday. Season record now 68-65.
Sunday's play (20 units) is on the Blue Jays.
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XS Sports Picks Sunday
NFL: Week One 7-4 (64%) +$16,800
3* Carolina +3 -110
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XS Sports Picks Sunday
MLB: Yesterday 4-1 (80%) +$7,350
3* Boston Over 10 -120
3* Miami Under 7 +110
3* Arizona Over 9 -120
3* NY Mets Under 7.5 -105
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Kuzi sports
blue jays ml
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Int picks
miami over 7
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ATS
4 Cards
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R.J. White
NFL
Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts | 8/15 | 1 PM
Panthers +1.5
With injuries to players who weren't going to feature much if at all in this game in Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson, I think it ramps up the pressure on Jacob Eason to come out and shine. But the bigger matchup here could be rookie Sam Ehlinger vs. XFL star P.J. Walker, and I think the Panthers have the edge in that one. Indy should be looking to get out of this game as healthy as possible after their rash of injuries, and I think Walker can dominate for a large stretch of the action and get Carolina the win.
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
4:10 PM EST
Rotation #927
Blue Jays -115 over Mariners
Matz/Gilbert
Logan Gilbert is a young pitcher with great strikeout power that trying to make a name for himself. The problem for Gilbert is his team just doesn’t give pitchers run support and are equally poor at hitting lefties as they are righties. Steven Matz should be able to keep this Seattle Offense in check while the Blue Jays power hitters will make the young Gilbert pay for one or two mistakes. Take the Blue Jays.
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Jack Winningham
Houston Astros Run Line -1 1/2 -120 over the Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM EST
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John Bollman
FEATURED PICK
CHI. CUBS @ MIAMI | 08/15 | 1:10 PM EDT
MIAMI -137
ANALYSIS: Elieser Hernandez is making just his third start of the season for the Marlins due to injuries and he had been pitching well in his rehab starts. The Marlins have won three games in a row and are actually above .500 at home at 29-27 while the Cubs have now lost 10 straight games and they are 21-39 on the road. Alec Mills is worse on the road with a 1-3 and 5.40 ERA and the Cubs are 1-12 since the Trade deadline. This line might not be out on some books yet, but I would take it up to -160. Take the Marlins at home.
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 08/15 | 1:05 PM EDT
CINCINNATI +130
ANALYSIS: Sonny Gray vs. Aaron Nola and Jesse Winker is back in the lineup for the Reds who tend to struggle against lefties. They face an inconsistent Aaron Nola today though while the Phillies face an inconsistent Sonny Gray. Nola has been much better at home but Gray has reverse splits and has been much better on the road. Both of these teams have been playing well and I think this rubber game should be a toss up so I like the value in the underdog.
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 08/15 | 1:05 PM EDT
ATLANTA -153
ANALYSIS: The Nationals and the Cubs have been to two most fadable teams since the All Star break and I don’t see that changing today. Drew Smyly has pitched well lately and pitched well against Washington this season, although the Nats have the highest wOBA against lefties in the league. Paolo Espino has been solid since entering the rotation, but he won’t pitch more than five innings and the Nats bullpen is terrible. The Nats have lost six in a row and they are 2-11 since the Trade deadline while the Braves are 9-3 since the Trade deadline. Take the Braves to get the sweep.
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Steve Merril
under Dodgers
over Minn
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Dave Essler
3* GOM Mariners +115
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J.M. SPORT
Game: (913) Los Angeles Dodgers at (914) New York Mets
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 7:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -161 M Scherzer (RHP), C Carrasco (RHP) Must Start
4 unit LA Dodgers (-161) over New York Mets (Scherzer/Carrasco) --
Season after season Scherzer continues to be on top of the stat lines, he is 9-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, including 6-2, 2.88 ERA in the L13 starts, 6-2 A, 5-2 at night and 2-0 with the Dodgers allowing on 8 hits in 2 starts. The Dodgers are 13-2 as an AF ≤ -135 vs. RHP, they are 9-1 as an AF vs. NDIV vs. RHP, 17-6 A vs. a win percentage under 55%, and 20-9 vs. SP w/ WHIP > 1.2. The Mets on the other hand have Carrasco on the mound for only his third start this year. I am a fan of Carrasco and seeing his story is inspiring BUT, in the last 3 season he has struggle at night, in 25 games (with 16 starts) Carrasco is 3-8 @ night, allowing 51 ER in 90.2 IP, totaling out to an ERA of 5.06. New York is also 2-6 as a HD in the L8, 7 straight losses as a dog overall, including 2-13 with a line > 135 and they are 1-4 in the L5 where they scored only 1 run in a L.
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -188 E Lauer (LHP), D Peters (LHP) Must Start
Dillon Peters is NOT gonna be a good thing today facing this Brewers lineup and in AAA with 13 appearances this season he has a nice little 1.5 ERA the past 5 times taking to the mound, but with an FIP of 5.04!
Lauer has faced the Pirates his last 2 times to the mound in a weird scenario…but after that second leg of the DH yesterday I think the Pirates blew their entire wad and will have a hard time doing THAT again….big price for a reason!
Also playing the Over in this spot here….as it is a 26 Overs in the last 35 times fitting our system here today!
Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Over 8.5 (-120) E Lauer (LHP), D Peters (LHP) Must Start
EASILY one of THE best spots on the entire Sunday board. We have a trend going Over in 26 of the last 35 times for a system here based upon Lauer and on the road. We have a 67% Over trend based on NL divisional totals that are “high”, AND we have a home dog in the NL spot with a .400 or worse win percentage spot TO BOOT!
Play this at 8.5 like it was a 5 or 10 Unit play and play this at 9 if that's what you're offered as a 4 or 5 Unit at least type play….in addition to the Brewers winning this game today, this is likely the most +EV spot on the Sunday MLB card!
Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-115) S Gray (RHP), A Nola (RHP) Must Start
This is some SOLID stuff here with this number….2 top tier starters, a game needed badly for both teams, and we have a combined -10 VMI with wind blowing inward AND an increased ADI in the stadium for this game…get the Reds bullpen out of the equation and I think Sonny REALLY STEPS IT UP today!
Game: (919) Tampa Bay Rays at (920) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Over 5.5 (-110) L Patino (RHP), C Barnes (LHP) Must Start
More bargains…and a correlated Over play here….runs from jump is how we see this and an 11 run FLOOR….ceiling of extra innings and maybe well into the teens….
Game: (919) Tampa Bay Rays at (920) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-110) L Patino (RHP), C Barnes (LHP) Must Start
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Pickswise Sports
XNFL
3* Best Bet - Panthers/Colts Over 33
MLB
3* Best Bet - Red Sox -1.5 runs
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JAY MCNEIL
100 DIME
Max Wager Winner
The Pick: 100 DIME play on the St. Louis Cardinals with Happ over the Kansas City Royals with Bubic. Both listed pitchers must start or no action.
The Line: At 8:30 am eastern time, the Cardinals are -120.
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AL DEMARCO - GM
The Pick: 20 Dimes - Dodgers Run Line
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MITCHELL NEWMAN
Line Error Lock of the Year
Selection: 100 Dime winner on the Atlanta Braves (Smyly) -1 1/2 runs over the Washington Nationals (Espino).
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TRACE ADAMS
Over Total of the Week
The Pick: 500♦ onthe New York Yankees (Cortes) and the Chicago White Sox (Giolito) to go Over the total. Both listed pitchers must start, or this is a no play.
total is 9 runs.
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SCOTT DELANEY
Preseason Total Lock
The Pick: 60 Dime Under Panthers-Colts
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CHRIS JORDAN
Mismatch of the Week
6-Run Rout
The Pick:300♦ Miami Marlins Run Line
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GUS AUGUSTINE
NFL Mismatch Winner
The Pick: 40 Dime Carolina Panthers
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IC
5-Unit Play. #911. Take Over 9 Runs Arizona vs. San DIego (Sunday @ 4:10pm est)
We roll with the Over here as San Diego has now lost 3 straight to Arizona and you would have to think that this team shows some pride here as they face Gallen who they have experience against and who they knocked out before the 5th inning in their last game. How embarrassing for the Padres that they let a team who has just 38 wins beat them for several straight games this weekend as Arizona got up for this series in a big way because this is their super bowl of sorts. Look for Arizona to step up here as well as they face Stammen who they have a great track record against as they have pegged him for 10 hits and 6 runs in 3 innings. Let's roll for a high scoring affair here as both these offenses get after it and this game likely goes over the posted total today.
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Marco D'Angelo
4% Brewers/Pirates 1H under 4' (-105) - Lauer/Peters must start
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Ben Burns
Reds RL
Royals RL
Toronto and the Under,
Colts
HERE YOU GO ACES
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Rays -157
Dime - Phillies -135
Dime - Yankees +170
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Scott Spreitzer
4* Timbers +150
4* Larson Over Kyle Busch
3* Dodgers -.5 First 5 Only
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Big Al
Underdog Play on Reds
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Larry Ness
Signature Play on Toronto
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Justin Perri
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 08/15 | 2:35 PM EDT
OAKLAND -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Athletics won four of five against the Rangers over the previous nine days, covering the spread in each of those victories. I see no reason why hey wouldn't cover if they won again. Texas LHP Kolby Allard has lost to Oakland three times already this year and Athletics LHP Sean Manaea is looking for a good bounce-back spot. The Rangers should prove to be just that, as they are the worst team against left-handed pitching in the league. I'll back the A's to cover and to keep the pace in the AL wild-card race, which they are leading.
ST. LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY | 08/15 | 2:10 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: I'll happily bet a game featuring J.A. Happ and Kris Bubic to go Over. Shocked this isn't at 10.5, I'd probably still play it if it was. Happ is coming off his best start in recent memory, and I highly doubt any success continues. Kansas City should be able to get some runs up and I also think the Cardinals will be able to score, as they've been hot recently and Bubic isn't much of a challenge. St. Louis has scored four or more runs in 10 straight games, and neither team has a great bullpen. This is a good Over spot.
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Kenny White
COLORADO @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/15 | 4:05 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -203
ANALYSIS: The Giants have been steady all season but are playing their best baseball right now, going 20-10 over their last 30 games. San Francisco LHP Alex Wood has a xFIP of 3.67 versus the Rockies. Meanwhile, Colorado's offense is the worst in the majors in OPS on the road (.610).
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Micah Roberts
FEATURED PICK
L.A. DODGERS @ N.Y. METS | 08/15 | 7:08 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -172
ANALYSIS: Los Angeles RHP Max Scherzer in a big game on the national stage for all to see with minor playoff implications at stake? I’m with Scherzer in that spot almost every time. The Dodgers have won six of their last seven games and are going for the sweep. The Mets aren't hitting and RHP Carlos Carrasco is still finding his way in his fourth start. He allowed four runs in the first inning of his last outing and called it a day. I'm on the Dodgers.
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