Free Premium Service Plays For Sunday 9/13/20

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 11:09 PM

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

L.A. RAMS +3
DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Cowboys ran all over the Rams in their Week 15 meeting last year, but Dallas of course is under new stewardship this season. With no preseason, I think it's going to take teams with new coaches time to find their footing, and I love getting a home 'dog of a field goal going against one here. It's not like Sean McVay's team tanked last season, finishing with a 9-7 record. Their defense has the talent in the secondary to handle the Cowboys' weapons in the passing game, so as long as McVay can scheme something up on offense -- and the Rams have scored 30-plus in all three of his season openers -- they should get the win here.

28-12-1 IN LAST 41 LAR ATS PICKS | +1446
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
TUE 5/26

GREEN BAY +3.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
Don't expect full stadiums for the start of the NFL season, which means the Vikings won't have their usual massive homefield edge. The Packers have spent months hearing how their 13-3 record last year was a fluke and that they botched their offseason moves. Both might be true, but it's good motivation against a division rival Green Bay swept last year. Since 2003, division dogs in Week 1 are 51-32 (61.4 percent) ATS, including 4-1 last year. Grab the points.

18-4-1 IN LAST 23 MIN ATS PICKS | +1355

15-5 IN LAST 20 GB ATS PICKS | +949
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HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 8:20 PM
478 LOS 3.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The public perception and love a–ffair with the Cowboys gives us clear value on the Rams as a 3 point home dog. I make the game Dallas -0.5.

The Rams are one of the teams least affected by the fact that this game will likely not have fans. Dallas will still have to travel, which gives the Rams around a 1.5 HFA.

Dallas will be playing their first game with a new HC, who has a limited time to implement his offense in a shortened offseason.

Matchup wise, the book is out on the Rams. They are a bet on team when Jared Goff's pocket is clean, and a bet against when he's under pressure. He is also a significantly better quarterback at home. Dallas was around league average in pressure rate last season, and projects to be around the same this season.
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HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 1:00 PM
469 GBP 3.5 (-110) Bookmaker vs 470 MIN

double-dime bet
Analysis:
I make this game Vikings -3.5... ASSUMING that we have a full capacity crowd. With the game likely having no or a limited crowd, the Vikings HFA takes a significant hit. I make this game Vikings -2.5, giving us value going through the key number of 3.

I am not a big trends guy, but one trend I think is applicable is divisional dogs in week 1. Teams ty–pically aren't hitting at full stride yet early in the season, and it keeps these games between familiar opponents super close. Divisional dogs since 2014 are 21-5-1 ATS, including 4-1 last season.

I think eventually the friction between Rodgers and the Packers front office hurts this Packers team negatively, but I suspect we see a super motivated Rodgers for his first game since the Packers essentially signaled to Rodgers that they are planning on life without him in 2-3 years. Plus, the Vikings will be breaking in a completely new cornerback group with very little experience.

Pick Made: May 8 2020 3:52PM PST
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HITMAN | NFL TOTAL SUN, 09/13/20 - 4:05 PM
472 CIN / 471 LAC Under 45.5 Southpoint

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The Chargers are my– favorite under the radar "under" team this season. Last year, Chargers games average only 38.5 PPG despite many games where opposing offenses started in great field position due to turnovers committed by the Chargers offense.

Last season, the Chargers were better then their record, but committing the 4th most turnovers in the NFL led to the Chargers going 5-11 despite having a Pythagorean win total of 7.8. Now the Chargers go from one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the NFL in Phillip Rivers to one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL in Tyrod Taylor. Ultimately I believe this leads to the Chargers being run heavier and relying on their defense more this season, which on paper projects as a top five defense this season.

The Bengals theoretically improved on both sides of the ball this season, but I expect the offense to take more time to gel due to the Bengals starting a rookie quarterback that has a shortened offseason to get prepared.

LINE NOTE 5/17: You can get 46.5 in NJ (DK), 46 at WHill, 45.5 at multiple Vegas shops and 44.5 is the most common number offshore. I tried to split the difference by listing this game at 45.5. Regardless, I like this under at 44 or better.
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 8:20PM
477 DAL / 478 LOS OVER 50.5 William Hilldouble-dime bet

Analysis: FYI, O50.5 is available at Caesars, WHill, and MGM. Perfectly fine at 51 as I like this up to 52.

Two teams I am selectively looking to play overs on this season.

One thing I have preached this offseason is looking to bet on teams that have continuity going into the offseason. The Rams and Cowboys are a matchup of two teams who keep the same offensive play caller (McVay and Moore), but lost their defensive play callers. Both of the former coordinators (Marinelli, and especially Wade Phillips) are noteworthy losses for their teams.

The Rams are projected to have one of the highest pass rates in the NF, and Jared Goff has had a significantly better YPA at home over the past two seasons. He also has a 31 to 11 TD/INT ratio at home in those seasons, while having a 22 to 17 TD/INT ratio on the road. Dallas' secondary is looking like the weakness of their team this season.

The Cowboys offense looks like it has improved in the offseason, which is a crazy thought considering that the team was 1st in YPP last season. The Cowboys return all of their starters except stud center Travis Frederick, but they removed possession pass catchers Randall Cobb and Jason Witten from their offense, and now replace those targets with the more explosive Ceedee Lamb and Blake Jarwin. The Rams lost OLB Dante Fowler, OLB Clay Matthews, MLB Cory Littleton, CB Nickell- Robey Coleman, and S Eric Weddle in the offseason, and rank 28th in defensive continuity coming into this season.
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Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5
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Marc Lawrence

NFL Opening Week Shocker!

3% Falcons +1

Edges: Long awaited debut for the 2020 season couldn’t arrive quick enough for the Falcons, who finished 7-9 last year for the second consecutive season despite a 1-7 start to the season. Thanks to prudent offseason moves, Atlanta becomes the only team since the common draft era projected to start 10 No. 1 picks on offense this season. With Falcons QB Matt Ryan 11-2 SUATS in his NFL career in home openers, and Seattle the most fortuitous team in the league last season (12 wins, but 10-2 in one-score games), look for Atlanta to improve to 12-3-1 ATS in its last sixteen games again the NFC West in this contest. We recommend a 3* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
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The Prez

NFL MAIN EVENT: TEAM WIN TOTAL I

5% Jaguars under 4.5 wins (-110)

The Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 schedule ranks 22nd in a traditional equation, this in terms of their strength of schedule. Yet no team in the league has a lower Team Season Win total that Tom Coughlin's draft picks and free-agent players.

The Jags could well face three rookie quarterbacks this season. However, the three rookies are not typical first-year players. They all come from complex offensive schemes and schools with rich football traditions. I expect Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow to all be the starting quarterbacks for their teams this season.

The Jaguars won six games in 2019. And it isn't a stretch to state that signal-caller Gardner Minshew will need to be better than his best last season. Minshew was the starting quarterback for the Jags in their half dozen victories.

The reasons for the Jaguars' 4.5 team wins in 2020 are plentiful. The organization has a middling Jay Gruden as Jaxsonville's offensive quarter. And they are asking their DC, Todd Wash, to do what 90 percent of the league's defensive bosses, have never done. This being a team that improves team wins after moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme.

The long and winding road of duplicating last year's six wins is not just long, as in long-shot, it follows a dysfunctional group of players and coordinators driving a truck that in my opinion will break down on that winding and bumpy road that is the16-game professional football regular season.

Unlike the successful team from Liverpool, the Beatles, The Jags don't have the depth, talent, or desire to win. They understand the big picture. The current Jacksonville roster is as dysfunctional as any across the last 50 years.

The Jacksonville roster lacks a conductor, a team leader, and the young group has absolutely nothing to grab onto when facing adversity. If there is one team in the NFL that will need to get significant minutes from their draft (2020 class) it is this Jacksonville group.

Wash will attempt to sell a new defensive concept to a group of players, despite what the Jags coaching staff will tell you, or admit to, are in a new system that requires Rookie of the Year seasons from defensive rookies.

The Jags’ front office under a stubborn and old-school Tom Coughlin never would face the fact that they could not and can not win with the current group of offensive lineman.

It is rare that a fourth-round rookie pick, on the offensive line, starts in year-one, on a team that has playoff potential. In a discussion with Tony Finn, who ranked last year's Jaguars offensive line as one of the least capable across the last decade. +

The NFL roster limits and financial cap do not allow for most teams to be quality deep at more than a handful of positions.

The Jaguars enter the season young, dumb, and full of.....The loss of a capable tight-end last season, with injures to James O’Shaughnessy and Josh Oliver, allowed opposing defensive coordinators to play a soft cover-two and/or four in situations where an experienced quarterback would have picked Jacksonville's defense apart.

The Jags young group can't afford an injury to any one player. When Jacksonville lost All-Pro 'backer Myles Jack and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to IR the heartbeat of the team was lost. Jacksonville was as easy to run on as any team in the league in the second half of the season. According to NFL.com, the Jags closed the season ranked 28th against the run.

It is not just reasonable but a given that Wash and his stop unit will be fortunate to win one game in their final eight Sundays of the season. They face Top-10 defensive squads in the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears. Their home games find them facing the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and the aforementioned Bears.

Jacksonville Jaguars offensive lineman Will Richardson has experience at left tackle. He filled in for the team in their first two regular-season games in 2019 before being moved to right guard. A move that was a demotion of sorts. He shared snaps with A.J. Cann. In 2020 he will be the anchor of a lineman-minded Marrone.

Newbie GM Caldwell has been asked but has not addressed the question of whether the Jags are in a transition or rebuild stage. But the loss of Campbell and the release of Dareus that includes trading defensive stalwarts Ramsey and Bouye make the Jags the youngest and least experienced defense in the league.

When the Jaguars won in 2019 they did so on the back of their defense against offensively challenged teams. The Jags defeated Mariota and the Titans, a winless and offensively inept Denver Broncos squad, Andy Dalton's Bengals, the New York Jets, Gruden's Raiders and in Week 17 the Colts.

Of the six teams that the Jags defeated last season, only the Tennessee Titans had an overall winning record.

You will read and hear supporters of the Jags, Caldwell, and Marrone that Jacksonville is in transition. Unbiased and conservative pundits of the league understand that the 2020 teams are rebuilding and the worst, in the way of wins, has yet to come.

Caldwell is savvy and has a good eye for talent. He was handed the assignment of replacing Coughlin with the understanding that collateral damage is necessary if the franchisee wants to return to past form and be a postseason threat year in and year out. And that plan includes playing first and second-year players... which results in a large number of losses.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS UNDER 4.5 Season Wins
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R.J. White

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

JACKSONVILLE +8
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:48 PM
I love finding a reason to take ugly 'dogs early in the season, when we know little about how the season is going to unfold. Yes, Jacksonville is going to be bad, but I don't see signs they'll be historically bad, not with a capable OC in the fold in Jay Gruden. But this line assumes not only that the Jaguars will be terrible, but that the Colts will also be great. Are we sure that's the case? Philip Rivers struggled last year with the Chargers, and he doesn't have a vast stable of pass-catchers at his disposal here. I also have some questions about the Indy secondary and think Gardner Minshew can storm though the back door late if needed.

23-13-1 IN LAST 37 IND ATS PICKS | +839

CHICAGO +3
CHICAGO @ DETROIT | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:45 PM
This line has steamed toward the Lions as the season draws near, but I think we're getting great value on the Bears at this number. All offseason the Bears were considered 1.5 wins better (minus the juice, which skews in Detroit's favor). Now all of a sudden Chicago is at best even with their division rival, or even behind them if you assume home-field advantage won't be worth a full three points? The Bears went with the familiar option at QB to start the season, which at least gives the offense a better chance to find early success. And while the Lions are a trendy sleeper based on their talent on offense, this Chicago defense is a tough matchup for anyone.

28-14-1 IN LAST 43 CHI ATS PICKS | +1292

10-3-1 IN LAST 14 DET ATS PICKS | +669

ATLANTA +2
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:39 PM
Maybe I'm the sucker, but I don't think this Falcons team is as bad as people are making it out to be. The defense found its footing in the second half of last season, when the team was able to go on the road and beat both the 49ers and Saints. The offense has a lot of stability coming out of this unique offseason. And while the Seahawks are likely the better team, they've struggled in recent Week 1 matchups. Remember them barely holding off a Bengals team last year that finished with the No. 1 pick? They lost the two years before that and edged out a bad Dolphins team as double-digit favorites in 2016 as well.

29-15 IN LAST 44 ATL ATS PICKS | +1235

19-10-2 IN LAST 31 SEA ATS PICKS | +783

UNDER 48
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/14 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:31 PM
Can we really expect much from the Giants offense in this game? It's their first game under the new coaching staff with no preseason under their belt to get comfortable, and now they have to face maybe the top defense in the league to open the season. A healthy Big Ben makes the Steelers offense a tough matchup for a Giants defense that should struggle this year, but is there really any reason for them to run up the score in the second half if they're up big? I think in order for this to go Over, you need a Giants offense that can be competitive in this game, and the odds are stacked against them.

13-6-3 IN LAST 22 PIT O/U PICKS | +633

UNDER 43
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:24 PM
The Eagles enter the season all kinds of banged up on the offensive side of the ball, and we shouldn't expect a ton of scoring from them out the gate. But they did a great job upgrading the secondary, which should have no trouble handling Washington's limited group of pass-catchers. If this is a defensive battle, Washington can certainly cover the six-point spread, but I feel much safer throwing my lot with the Under, which may be a constant play in Washington games until they can prove otherwise.

4-2 IN LAST 6 WAS O/U PICKS | +180

UNDER 43
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:19 PM
The Dolphins did a lot to improve on the defensive side, but their rebuilt O-line is going to take time to come together, and the skill position guys are basically the same group that finished 25th in scoring last year. The Patriots suffered some losses on the defensive side but still have Bill Belichick drawing up the gameplan, and the New England offense should take time to find a rhythm under new quarterback Cam Newton. He may find it tough to have success throwing against an impressive secondary, especially with no standout pass-catchers aside from Julian Edelman.

10-3 IN LAST 13 NE O/U PICKS | +669
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Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 7:30 PM

NEW ENGLAND -6.5
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
Cam Newton says he and the Patriots are a match made in heaven, and I believe him. The Patriots voted him team captain and coach Bill Belichick has been praising him for the past three weeks. This contest isn't about exacting revenge after losing a costly home game to the Dolphins in Week 17 last year, but rather about the Patriots' top-ranked defense. Then there’s the idea of Newton making a bigger splash in Week 1 than Tom Brady does for Tampa Bay. That’s the headline that would make me buy Monday's papers. Take New England to cover.

6-3 IN LAST 9 MIA ATS PICKS | +271
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Hank Goldberg

NFL Best Bets

Posted Tuesday

DALLAS -3

DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT

The Cowboys led the league in total offense last year (431.5 ypg), and I think Mike McCarthy will turn all of that talent into better than 8-8. I also like Dallas' new defensive coordinator, Mike Nolan. The Rams lost a lot of key pieces, and Jared Goff could turn it over even more this season. Lay the points.

GREEN BAY +2.5

GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT

Kirk Cousins had a great year in 2019 but I believe that was an aberration. He played over his head. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, and they swept Minnesota last year. I think Green Bay wins outright.

BUFFALO -6.5

N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT

The Bills have a fantastic defense and now Josh Allen has Stefon Diggs to throw to and Zack Moss in the backfield along with Devin SIngletary. The Jets stink. They hate their coach. This number could close higher.
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 4:05PM
472 CIN 3.5(-110) Southpoint vs 471 LAC double-dime bet

Analysis: The Chargers are not the type of team I want laying over a field goal on the road. A lot of sharp guys are high on them once again this season because of their horrendous turnover and close game luck last season, but it's the same story every single year with this team, so one has to wonder if this is just bad luck, or is it something else?

The Chargers also have horrendous injury luck seemingly every single season, and the same is true for this season. WR Mike Williams is likely out for this game, and the Chargers have little wide receiver depth behind him. C Mike Pouncey is also a GTD, meaning the Chargers would field one of the worst LT-LG-C combinations in the league, against an underrated Bengals pass rush that has three underrated edge rushers in Carlos Dunlap, Carl Lawson, and Sam Hubbard, as well as interior disruptors Geno Atkins and DJ Reader. The Chargers are also without superstar safety Derwin James for the rest of the season.

I don't love playing on a rookie QB in their first start with no preseason, but Joe Burrow has reportedly shined in Bengals practices, and he has very underrated weapons to go along with him in Joe Mixon and a deep wide receiver group.

No team had a slower run offense then the Chargers last year, and Chargers games averaged the fewest combined plays in the NFL. That is not a recipe towards success when you want to cover over a field goal on the road. Take the points!
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HITMAN | NFLSide - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 8:20PM
478 LOS 3.0(-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis:

PROPS POSTED IN THIS PICK: CHECK BACK ON GAMEDAY’s. Also, for TNF and MNF, check the forums and my twitter handle for props!

Will Fuller O60.5 Rec Yds -110 (Fanduel)
David Johnson O44.5 Rush Yds -110 (MGM)
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Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 9:32 AM

UNDER 43
L.A. CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI | 9/13 | 4:05 PM EDT
Perhaps no game in Week 1 is more impacted by the preseason schedule’s wipeout than this one. The Chargers are breaking in a QB new to the team, with veteran Tyrod Taylor replacing his near-opposite, Philip Rivers. Taylor, a so-so passer, might be denied his primary target in 1,000-yard receiver Mike Williams (shoulder). The Bengals are breaking in a QB new to the league. Joe Burrow will be thrown to the wolves, notably the sharp-toothed DE duo of Joey Boss and Melvin Ingram. It’s a ridiculously unfair ask of the rookie. If the defenses are held to a combined total of one TD, the Under should prevail.

8-4 IN LAST 12 LAC O/U PICKS | +360
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
YESTERDAY 5:20 PM

BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
My projection model has the Bills as a far superior team, and I have them winning by 10 on Sunday. It's tempting to grab points in a divisional game, but not with teams headed in opposite directions. Buffalo is covering nearly 60 percent of my simulations. Lay the points.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ ATS PICKS | +96
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Mike McClure
MONEY
FRI 5/8

BALTIMORE -9
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
I think the Browns take a pretty big step forward this season with Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, and the addition of Austin Hooper. However, this is a very difficult assignment on the road against a very hungry Ravens team coming off a disappointing post-season result. The Browns might keep this competitive heading to the fourth quarter, but I expect Lamar Jackson and company to pull away and cover. I make the Ravens -12 on their home field.
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Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
TUE 9/8

LAS VEGAS -3
LAS VEGAS @ CAROLINA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
Four rookie Panthers defensive starters, in a year with no preseason games and little offseason work? Seems like a recipe for disaster, especially in Week 1. It’s usually not a great idea to lay points like this on the road, but even if Christian McCaffrey runs wild it'll be hard for Carolina to keep this one close. The Panthers also have a rookie head coach, a new QB and a lessened home-field advantage with a limited crowd. Lay the field goal.

2-1 IN LAST 3 LV ATS PICKS | +90
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Emory Hunt

INDIANAPOLIS -8
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
9:54 AM
These two teams couldn't be headed in different directions as this season kicks off. Indianapolis looks like one of the more complete teams in the AFC, with Super Bowl aspirations. The Jaguars on the other hand resemble a team that's planning for 2021. With that being said, I don't think Jacksonville will be a complete pushover in this game. The Jags do have some talent, and I believe they will start with a bang, making bettors sweat in the first half. However, the better team will eventually start to pull away comfortably in the second half.

2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS | +89

WASHINGTON +5.5
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
9:52 AM
Philadelphia is entering this NFC East matchup a bit banged up along the offensive line. That is not what you want to hear if you are an Eagles fan, as the Washington Football Team has arguably the best defensive line, and defensive line depth, in the division. Being able to rush the passer and get QB Carson Wentz off his rhythm is enough to steal away a few possessions in this game. On the other side of the field, one of QB Dwayne Haskins' standout games last season was against the Eagles. With familiarity comes confidence, and with confidence comes execution. This will be a tight one.

25-15-1 IN LAST 41 PHI ATS PICKS | +836

15-11 IN LAST 26 WAS ATS PICKS | +264

BALTIMORE -7.5
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
9:48 AM
When Cleveland and Baltimore hit the field Sunday, the game will be a strength-vs.-weakness matchup, as the Ravens' strength on offense is their run game, while the weakness of the Browns defense is their run defense. Making things complicated for the Cleveland offense is the offseason acquisition of both DE Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe. Expect the Ravens to challenge the Browns rookie LT Jedrick Wills, putting a lot of pressure on QB Baker Mayfield and stymying RB Nick Chubb and the Cleveland ground game in the process.

9-2 IN LAST 11 BAL ATS PICKS | +680
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R. J. White

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
WED 9/9
I expect this line to come down, so if you like the Cardinals jump on them now. Arizona nearly beat San Francisco twice last season, and this version of the 49ers doesn't have nearly as much upside with its beat-up receiving corps. The Cardinals added a good amount of talent in the offseason, and they'll be hungry to prove they belong among the contenders in this division. The 49ers have also had to deal with the distraction of the wildfires in the area, which could even cause uncertainty on whether this game is played on time. There's too much to like with the Cards in this one.

15-9 IN LAST 24 SF ATS PICKS | +510

NEW ORLEANS -3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
WED 9/9
This is the one favorite I love in Week 1. The Saints are one of the best teams in the league, and I feel like they're the clear front-runner in the NFC. The Bucs have plenty of unanswered questions since we have yet to see Tom Brady in this offense, and now he might be without Mike Evans in Week 1. That would make the Bucs offense much easier to defend, as would Leonard Fournette getting decent run despite him still being new to the offense, as the Tampa Bay staff has intimated will happen. Unless the Bucs come up with a huge defensive effort, I think New Orleans wins with ease.

19-8-4 IN LAST 31 TB ATS PICKS | +1008

5-2 IN LAST 7 NO ATS PICKS | +269

GREEN BAY +2.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
WED 9/9
I have some serious questions about this Vikings team, from an offensive line where the left tackle thought he was getting cut before agreeing to a contract restructure, to a receiving corps without Stefon Diggs, to a defensive line that put its best player on IR and is trying to get trade acquisition Yannick Ngakoue up to speed, to a Vikings secondary that lost three key corners and is replacing them with a lot of youth. Minnesota's cap woes mean they lost a lot this season, so while the Packers didn't do much to improve, they still return most of their solid team. Green Bay is better, and Minnesota won't have much of a home-field advantage with no fans.

36-6 IN LAST 42 GB ATS PICKS | +2927

33-9-3 IN LAST 45 MIN ATS PICKS | +2292
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Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5
Bears over 43
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Northcoast top 6 futures
NYJ to win less than 7 games
Indy to win more than 9 games
Cleve. to win less than 8.5 games
Miami to win more than 6 games
LA Rams to win more than 8.5 games
Det. to win less than 7 games
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Cowherd Blazin 5
Balt
jets
falcons
panthers
rams
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Ralph Michaels

NFL Totals GOW

4% Ravens-Browns under 49

The Ravens offense surprised many last season but now DC's have had a full season to prep. The Browns offense will be the "Vikings of the AFC" with their new head coach as they will have a FB and use multiple TE's and will be a run first team. With both teams running I expect this clock to keep running. Week #1 DIV games with a total of 45 1/2 and higher are 58% to the Under.
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The Prez

MAIN EVENT NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL of the MONTH

5% Colts-Jags under 46

PLAY the total UNDER 46 points. (this 5% play is good top 43 points)
5% play rating

(467) Indianapolis Colts at (468) Jacksonville Jaguars

As Finn wrote this past weekend "Handicapping American Football involves a large number of variables. Some of the numbers and philosophies are tangible and others are not-so-much. Take distance for example. Measurement in inches or feet, centimeters, or meters are in fact tangible.

The best way to describe who the Jacksonville Jaguars are is as follows. The 2020 Jags are so far from being a contender for the NFL championship the distance is measured in light-years. The distance between Jacksonville and a division title is a distance that is best imagined rather than written in fear there may well be young children browsing the world wide web and run across the truth about their favorite NFL team.

The talent in training camp and in the locker room as the Jags prepare for Week 1 season opener on September 13th will find the Jaguars with less talent,

The offense lacks confident playmakers and the defense has a number of players that are too quick to be placed on injured reserve. How much of a mess is this Jacksonville team going to make and play like this 2020 season? Looking at the list of weekly Sunday games and the look-ahead lines you'll find that the Jaguars are not a favorite. Not once are the player personnel of Jacksonville favored to win in the first 17 weeks of the regular-season slate in every sportsbook look-ahead point spreads.

Those that are informed and cynical are convinced that the Jags will most likely be, or already are, the recipients of the 2021 overall No. 1 pick. And that player is the first piece of the franchise puzzle of returning to NFL relevance. That player of course is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

And those outside of Florida that have yet to hear or read what the Jaguars moto is for the 2020 season let it be known that chants of"Tank for Trevor" will be whispered, muttered, and screamed throughout the season.

Projected starting QB Gardner Minshew did enough to impress in his rookie season that he enters 2020 with the training camp no-contact jersey. Defensively the current staff under the guidance of coach Marone has either traded away or run-off the best of the unit. Defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue wants out of Jacksonville and has yet to sign the non-exclusive franchise tender the organization placed on him.

The Jaguars applied the non-exclusive franchise tag to him on March 13, but he has yet to sign the tender. The Vegas and Offshore oddsmakers have set the Season Win Total for Jacksonville at 4.5 games. And as I mentioned in the early portion of this 2020 team preview the Jags are not a pre-game favorite in the way-to-early look-ahead lines for any of their 16 regular-season games [at the time this article went to press].

Key Additions: QB Mike Glennon,, TE Tyler Eifert, TE, DL Rodney Gunter, CB Rashaan Melvin, CB, LB Joe Schobert, RB Chris Thompson, DT Al Woods

Key Losses: QB Nick Foles, WR Marqise Lee, TE Geoff Swaim, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, DE Calais Campbell, DT Marcell Dareus, LB Jake Ryan, CB A.J. Bouye

UNDER the TOTAL of 46 points
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WUnderdog
NFL

Atlanta+2.5 @ seattle
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAY
Dallas -3

SINGLE PLAYS:
Cleveland +7.5
Carolina +3
Detroit +3
Indianapolis -8
Arizona +7
Tampa Bay +3.5
LA Chargers-Cincinnati under 42
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Stats Analytics Sports
NFL - All 2 Unit Plays
Green Bay Packers +2.5
Washington Redskins +6
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Los Angeles Rams +3
Miami Dolphins +7
Miami Dolphins/New England Patriots Under 42
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NORTHCOAST ECONOMY CLUB NFL
steelers
bills
bears
eagles
bengals
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Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5
1Bears over 43

ADDED

added
.5 wash +3 fh .5 wash +6 full game
.5 Arz +7
.5 Ariz team total over 19.5 -120 or over 20 -110 is fine too.
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Rob Veno

Week 1 NFL Blue Chip

5% Cards-49ers over 45.5

In the first season of HC Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure, upstart Arizona took the Super Bowl runner-up right down to the wire in each matchup. Now with a full year of familiarity and cohesiveness under their belts, the Cardinals figure to be even more formidable. The Arizona offense gave San Francisco some trouble last season scoring 25 & 26 points in their two contests. Cardinals dual threat QB Kyler Murray was especially problematic going 41/57/391 (71.9% comp) with four TD passes and 0 interceptions. Murray’s added running dimension provided another 101 yards on 13 carries (7.8 avg.) and a touchdown. What’s impressive about the Cardinals offense in these games last season is the length of their scoring drives as seven of their nine covered 67+ yards and only one started on the San Francisco side of the field. Add in All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins and Arizona figures to be more dynamic and tougher to match up with this season. Must also note San Francisco’s offensive success in last season’s games as they racked up 853 total yards (411 & 442) resulting in 58 points (had 1 defensive TD). Even more impressive is that they did it without their elite LT Joe Staley in both games and without starting RT Mike McGlinchey in one of them. Signing ex-Redskins LT Trent Williams to take Staley’s place this season should keep the OL as one of the league’s best. The situation NFL teams are presently in could somewhat hinder the ability for lengthy offseason Week #1 preparation. In this case, that figures to favor these powerful offenses which have already proven to be capable of producing points against each other. Current total of 46 allows ticket cashing on key numbers of 47 & 48 which presents a strong opportunity. Going to take advantage of the number and play “Over” 45.5.

Recommendation: Arizona-San Francisco OVER 45.5

Note: This play remains a 5% play up to 47.5 and becomes a 4% if the number hits 48
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Matt Josephs

Season Win Totals Best Bet

3% Los Angeles Rams under 8.5 (-140)

I'm just not a buyer of the Rams despite their supposed genius of a head coach. I don't like Jared Goff and I think their RBs are highly mediocre as a unit. The defensive front seven is pretty strong, but outside of Jalen Ramsey, I'm not a fan of their secondary. The division is also improved with the Cardinals getting more talent. The biggest reason I like the under here as well is because of their schedule. Let's take a look at the slate and I'll show you that things get REAL rough early on.

(Spreads from an online book for every game)

Week 1 - Rams (+2.5) vs. Cowboys -- Sunday Night home opener against the supposed favorites of the NFC East -- L
Week 2 - Rams (+4) @ Eagles -- Trip east to play an Eagles team that has had their number lately and is better - L
Week 3 - Rams (+3) @ Bills -- West coast team probably stays East and plays a grinding Bills team that is better - L
Week 4 - Rams (-7.5) vs. NYG - Sleepy spot here as they return home to take on a Giants team that could be better - W (Giants will make it interesting.
Week 5 - Rams (-5) @ Skins -- ANOTHER road trip east to play a Washington D that will be fierce. No guarantees here either - W
Week 6 - Rams (+7) @ 49ers -- ANOTHER road game although back on the West coast. Rams have to be tired by now. - L
Week 7 - Rams (-3.5) vs. Bears -- MNF against another brutal defense. If they find a QB then there's no reason Chicago can't win. - W
Week 8 - Rams (-3) @ Dolphins -- Short week and ANOTHER trip east to prepare for a Dolphins team that will be better - L

(Bye week record is 3-5, but NONE of these games are a guarantee)

Week 10 - Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle -- Tight spread for the rivalry game against a Seattle team that is talented - W
Week 11 - Rams (+3.5) @ Bucs (MNF) - ANOTHER trip east to play Tom Brady and a rejuvenated Bucs team - L
Week 12 - Rams (+2.5) vs. SF -- Short week at home against a Niners team coming off a bye week. - L
Week 13 - Rams (Pick) @ Arizona -- No guarantees here as Jalen Ramsey can only cover one stud WR. These two split - L
Week 14 - Rams (-4) vs. Patriots - Short week to host the Patriots. Should be a win, but Belichick has proven to out-coach McVay - W
Week 15 - Rams (-7) vs. Jets -- Easiest game of the schedule. Should be a win too - W
Week 16 - Rams (+3.5) @ Seattle -- Can't pick the Rams on the road. I'm guessing there's fans in the stands by this game - L
Week 17 - Rams (-6) vs. Cardinals -- I'll give LA a win here mostly because neither team will have something to play for - W

I've got the Rams going 7-9 which gives you a cushion on the 8's and the 8.5's. I feel a lot better about Under 8.5, but if the juice is right, go for the under 8. This team got NO favors when it comes to schedule.
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Rocky Atkinson

double-dime bet

NY Jets @ Buffalo (1:00 PM EST)
Play On: NY Jets +7 -125

The New York Jets travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo finished off last year going 0-3 their final 3 games scoring only 14 points per game. NY Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS when playing at Buffalo past 3 years. NY Jets are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog. Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 games against the AFC. The Underdog is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings in this series. The road team is 4-0 ATS last 4 games in this series. Public is all over Buffalo in this one. We'll play the NY Jets for 2 DIMES today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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skybluepicks

arizona +7
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Midwest NFL Handicapping

LAR +3 vs DAL (Buy Hook)
NE -6.5 vs MIA
DEN +3 vs TENN
BALT -7.5 vs CLE
ATL +3 vs SEA
LAC -3 vs CINCI
GB +2.5
ARIZ +7 vs SF

Teaser
BUFF -.5/BALT -1.5
NYJ +12.5/CAR +7
ATL +9/CHI +8.5
GB +8.5/NO +2
LAR +8.5/NE -1
NYG +12/DEN +9
KC -2.5/DEN +9
HOU +15.5/UNDER 59

Over/Under
NE/MIA UNDER 41.5
CAR/OAK UNDER 47.5
CINCI/LAC UNDER 45.5
DAL/LAC OVER 50.5
Chargers Team Total OVER 23.5
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Jimmy Moore

#466

5* Detroit Lions -2.5 (1:00 edt)

Absolutely LOVE the Lions here since they are at home - yes without fans - but still in familiar surroundings and they get to take on a Chicago team that they will be fired up to beat after dropping both games to them last season. The Bears go with Mitch at QB and that plays into the Lions hands as well since they will be very ready to beat him after Mitch had his 2 best games of the season last year in both games against Detroit. Lay this small number with Detroit to win early with Jimmy. Thank you and good luck.
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Stephen Oh

CHI. CUBS +115
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 9/13 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:40 PM
In his last six starts, Brewers starter Adrian Houser is 0-4 with a 7.34 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. I'm not sure why Milwaukee is such a big favorite on Sunday. My model says the Cubs win well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with Chicago at this number.

21-11 LAST 32 MLB SIDES | +1276
3-1 IN LAST 4 CHC ML PICKS | +254

L.A. RAMS +2
DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:35 PM
My model says the Rams cover well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with L.A. at this number. We all know the Rams love to throw the ball, and they'll be facing a Dallas team that ranked 20th in pass defense rating (91.9) and 25th in completion percentage (65.0). I love L.A.

2-0-1 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +200

BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
WED 9/9
My projection model has the Bills as a far superior team, and I have them winning by 10 on Sunday. It's tempting to grab points in a divisional game, but not with teams headed in opposite directions. Buffalo is covering nearly 60 percent of my simulations. Lay the points.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ ATS PICKS | +96
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Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
NFL
New Orleans Saints -3
Los Angeles Rams +2.5
Green Bay Packers +2.5
Green Bay Packers/Minnesota Vikings Under 45.5
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Joe Williams (VegasInsider - NFL Totals)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/New Orleans Saints Over 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles/Washington Redskins Under 42.5
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VegasInsider Totals Club
NFL
Cardinals/49ers Over 48 (Top Total of the Day)
Chargers/Bengals Under 42
Colts/Jaguars Under 45
Browns/Ravens Under 48
Cowboys/Rams Over 51.5
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Kevin Davis (VegasInsider)
MLB
Oakland A's -135
Atlanta Braves +175
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Vince Akins (VegasInsider)
NFL
Seattle Seahawks -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Green Bay Packers/Minnesota Vikings Over 44.5
New York Jets/Buffalo Bills Under 40
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TeamRonaldinho

AUSTRIA Tipico Bundesliga
Ried – Tirol
Ried Over 1.5 goals
Odds : 1.90
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Mike Tierney

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 12:38 PM
Gifted quarterbacks tend to take the biggest leap forward in their second seasons, so expect fireworks from Kyler Murray, particularly with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins coming aboard. The Cardinals’ receiving corps is ocean-deep, in contrast to the 49ers’ in this game. Top Target Deebo Samuel (foot) is a scratch. Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) might be, too. While the hangover for Super Bowl runners-up might be mythical, this team is surely banged up for not having played yet. Heavy smoke from Northern California fires has disrupted practices leading up to the kickoff.

3-0-1 IN LAST 4 ARI ATS PICKS | +300

3-1 IN LAST 4 SF ATS PICKS | +190

JACKSONVILLE +8
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 12:37 PM
Let’s set aside the widespread notion that Jacksonville already has decided to tank this season. NFL teams don’t think that way. The Jaguars, for example, unloaded running back Leonard Fournette because he underperformed. They are the largest underdog of the weekend and one of few teams welcoming fans into their stadium. New/old Indy quarterback Philip Rivers rues not having exhibition games to get acclimated. Though an accomplished veteran, he showed slippage with the Chargers. His best blocker, All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson (back), is ailing.

14-6 IN LAST 20 JAC ATS PICKS | +764

12-8 IN LAST 20 IND ATS PICKS | +323
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Tkwins
3* Cleveland +7.5
3* Ny Jets +7.5 freeplay
4* La Chargers -2.5
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R.J. White

NFL WEEK 1: 2020 LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

R.J. White, who has cashed big twice in the prestigious Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, shares his top five SuperContest plays for Week 1.

In the last five years the stats guru has cashed huge twice in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Since 2015 White has gone 233-174-18 in the SuperContest, nailing more than 57 percent of his picks and cashing in 2015 and '17.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, White did not travel to Las Vegas to enter this year's contest. But he is still offering his five weekly SuperContest picks to SportsLine members.

ATL +2.5 vs. SEA
Maybe I'm the sucker, but I don't think this Falcons team is as bad as people are making it out to be. The defense found its footing in the second half of last season, when the team was able to go on the road and beat both the 49ers and Saints. The offense has a lot of stability coming out of this unique offseason. And while the Seahawks are likely the better team, they've struggled in recent Week 1 matchups. Remember them barely holding off a Bengals team last year that finished with the No. 1 pick? They lost the two years before that and edged out a bad Dolphins team as double-digit favorites in 2016 as well.

GB +2.5 at MIN
I have some serious questions about this Vikings team, from an offensive line where the left tackle thought he was getting cut before agreeing to a contract restructure, to a receiving corps without Stefon Diggs, to a defensive line that put its best player on IR and is trying to get trade acquisition Yannick Ngakoue up to speed, to a Vikings secondary that lost three key corners and is replacing them with a lot of youth. Minnesota's cap woes mean they lost a lot this season, so while the Packers didn't do much to improve, they still return most of their solid team. Green Bay is better, and Minnesota won't have much of a home-field advantage with no fans.

CHI +3 at DET
This line has steamed toward the Lions as the season draws near, but I think we're getting great value on the Bears at this number. All offseason the Bears were considered 1.5 wins better (minus the juice, which skews in Detroit's favor). Now all of a sudden Chicago is at best even with their division rival, or even behind them if you assume home-field advantage won't be worth a full three points? The Bears went with the familiar option at QB to start the season, which at least gives the offense a better chance to find early success. And while the Lions are a trendy sleeper based on their talent on offense, this Chicago defense is a tough matchup for anyone, particularly with the Lions missing their right tackle and likely their No. 1 receiver.

NO -3.5 vs. TB
This is the one favorite I love in Week 1. The Saints are one of the best teams in the league, and I feel like they're the clear front-runner in the NFC. The Bucs have plenty of unanswered questions since we have yet to see Tom Brady in this offense, and now he's likely without Mike Evans in Week 1. That makes the Bucs offense much easier to defend, as would Leonard Fournette getting decent run despite him still being new to the offense, as the Tampa Bay staff has intimated will happen. Unless the Bucs come up with a huge defensive effort, I think New Orleans wins with ease.

LAR +3 vs. DAL
The Cowboys ran all over the Rams in their Week 15 meeting last year, but Dallas of course is under new stewardship this season. With no preseason, I think it's going to take teams with new coaches time to find their footing, and I love getting a home 'dog of a field goal going against one here. It's not like Sean McVay's team tanked last season, finishing with a 9-7 record. Their defense has the talent in the secondary to handle the Cowboys' weapons in the passing game, so as long as McVay can scheme something up on offense -- and the Rams have scored 30-plus in all three of his season openers -- they should get the win here.
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Root

Millionaire New Orleans -
No Limit - Cleveland +
Perfect Play - Washington +
—————
Inner Circle-NY Jets +

Pinnacle- falcons
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Al demarco 15 dime ravens
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Brandon Lang
100 Dime
BEST BET
Green Bay Packers +2.5 (buy 1/2 pt)
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Westgate/Hilton NFL Super Contest
Top 5 picks
Bill 334
Rams 337
Falcons 304
Titans 303
Cardinals 380
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Ben Burns

September GAME OF THE MONTH

Minnesota Vikings
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newworldinsiders

Ravens Over 47.5
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Big Al
Atlanta
Minn
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Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
9:23 AM

DENVER +8.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DENVER | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
It looked like the Clippers had Game 5 in hand, but a second-half collapse kept the series alive for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray had another inefficient game, but he was still able to score 26 points on the strength of 25 shot attempts. As long as he continues to be that aggressive, the Nuggets could at least keep this game fairly close. I think he will be facing elimination, so while I like the Clippers to win, I’ll take the points in a close game.

128-77-3 IN LAST 208 NBA ATS PICKS | +4330
5-3 IN LAST 8 DEN ATS PICKS | +170

4-3 IN LAST 7 LAC ATS PICKS | +70
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NFL​(BOB BALFE)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #459
Raiders -3 over Panthers
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Rocketman
Jets
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Larry Hartstein

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. All-time at SportsLine (2015-19), he's gone 302-243 (plus $2,811) on NFL picks, including 67-49 overall (58 percent) and 58-39 ATS (60 percent) in 2019. That followed a 2018 season in which Larry went 61-47 overall, including 56-44 ATS.

WASHINGTON +5.5
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:47 PM
The Eagles won't have Miles Sanders and their makeshift offensive line could get dominated by a Washington front featuring four first-round picks. Dwayne Haskins finished strong last season and I look for a solid performance from him as Washington keeps this close.

2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ATS PICKS | +93

5-4 IN LAST 9 PHI ATS PICKS | +52

UNDER 48
LAS VEGAS @ CAROLINA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:27 PM
This is a big number considering the Panthers have a new offensive system and a conservative QB in Teddy Bridgewater. With the Raiders' receivers banged up, we can expect both teams to lean on the ground game.

2-1 IN LAST 3 LV O/U PICKS | +90

CINCINNATI +3
L.A. CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI | 9/13 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:09 PM
It's scary to back a rookie in his first NFL start, especially with no preseason games, but the Chargers are going to be a conservative, run-first team behind Tyrod Taylor. They lost arguably their best defensive player, Derwin James, and the explosive Mike Williams is a gametime decision with a shoulder injury. In a game that should be extremely close, take the full field goal.

6-1 IN LAST 7 LAC ATS PICKS | +491

12-8 IN LAST 20 CIN ATS PICKS | +317

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
THU 9/10
The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, 5-0 ATS if you jumped on Arizona early enough leading up to the second meeting last season. San Francisco had a lot of trouble defending Kyler Murray last year, and now he has DeAndre Hopkins on his side. With the 49ers wideouts banged up, grab the points with another divisional underdog.

15-7-1 IN LAST 23 SF ATS PICKS | +728

3-1 IN LAST 4 ARI ATS PICKS | +189
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Micah Roberts

UNDER 39.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:01 PM
The Bills closed out last season staying Under the total in six of their last seven games while the Jets stayed Under in five of their last six. Both meetings last season stayed Under, the first a 17-16 Bills win and the second a 13-6 Jets win in Week 17. No preseason and less practice won’t help the rhythm or psyche of either of these young QBs. Both defenses will be the stars of this game. Under is the play.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ O/U PICKS | +95

JACKSONVILLE +8
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
Jacksonville is going to have some fans in the stands and the Jaguars are getting a whole bunch of points against a Colts team they're 8-1-1 ATS against in the last 10 meetings, including a Jaguars' 38-20 Week 17 win last season. That was two weeks after they won the last game played in Oakland. Gardner Minshew proved he can make plays in the NFL last season and also take care of the ball (only six interceptions). They’ll have an easier run at cohesion while Philip Rivers and his old ways may have a tougher transition. Jaguars to cover.

3-0 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS | +300

2-1 IN LAST 3 JAC ATS PICKS | +89

CAROLINA +3
LAS VEGAS @ CAROLINA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
THU 9/10
I have both teams rated equal on a neutral field. The Raiders are playing at an East Coast location at 10 a.m. PT, which historically doesn't bode well for West Coast teams. The Raiders have the same QB and head coach that closed out 2019 with losses in five of their last six.. Carolina has a great receiving corps and the most exciting running back in the league. New QB Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS as an underdog because he doesn’t take a lot of risks or make mistakes.

9-4-1 IN LAST 14 CAR ATS PICKS | +463
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SDQL

TAMPA BAY -190
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 9/13 | 1:10 PM EDT
7:46 AM
The Rays are 11-0 in the last game of a home series when coming off a game as favorites and their opponent’s starting pitcher has same-season-revenge. They are also 8-0 in franchise history as favorites with Charlie Morton on the mound when they lost in his last start. The Red Sox are 0-8 on the road when seeking same-season revenge vs. their opponent's starting pitcher, and it is not a series opener. They're an ugly 0-9 this season as underdogs of more than 130 when they are facing a divisional opponent that has won their last two games -- losing each of the nine games by multiple runs, while allowing an average of 8.44 runs. We make the Rays the play.

73-40-1 IN LAST 114 MLB PICKS | +745
2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +25

N.Y. YANKEES -195
BALTIMORE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 9/13 | 1:05 PM EDT
7:43 AM
The Yankees are a perfect 11-0 in franchise history as favorites with J.A. Happ on the mound when they lost his last start. The Orioles are 0-9 after a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs, and 0-7 after a game in which they drew one or fewer walks and it is not a series opener. There's plenty of value with the Yankees at this line.

73-40-1 IN LAST 114 MLB PICKS | +745
3-1 IN LAST 4 NYY ML PICKS | +160

4-2 IN LAST 6 BAL ML PICKS | +133
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Northcoast late phone
3.5* bengals
3* eagles und 42.5
3* bears +2.5
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Stats Analytics Sports

Los Angeles Angels -156
Kansas City Royals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9
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Billy Coleman

NBA
3* Clippers/Nuggets OVER 214.5
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Washington Nationals -156
Cincinnati Reds +102
Houston Astros
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MidAmerican Sports (Raiderman)
NFL
Browns +7.5
Jets +7
Bucs/Saints Over 47.5
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Marco D Angelo
3% Vikings
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Zack Cimini

GREEN BAY +2.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
12:10 AM
Last year the Packers limited the Vikings to an average of 13 points. They ran the ball at will, and Aaron Rodgers hit Davante Adams with a ton of short passes. Look for the Packers to control the clock once again and get the cover.

5-1 IN LAST 6 GB ATS PICKS | +390

7-3-1 IN LAST 11 MIN ATS PICKS | +369

LAS VEGAS -3
LAS VEGAS @ CAROLINA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
12:09 AM
The Raiders return a solid offensive line and an improving defensive line. Expect them to control the trenches against Carolina. The Raiders' youth at receiver will actually be a benefit, as there is zero film for the Panthers to scout. Lay the points.

4-0 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +400

3-1 IN LAST 4 LV ATS PICKS | +186

BALTIMORE -7.5
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
12:07 AM
The Ravens are the highest home favorite on the board for Sunday. The yardage battle might be close, but expect turnovers, miscues and failed execution to doom the Browns as Baltimore gets a double-digit win.

2-0-1 IN LAST 3 CLE ATS PICKS | +200

3-1 IN LAST 4 BAL ATS PICKS | +191
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Insider Sports Report

4* Philadelphia -5.5 over Washington (NFL)
3* Carolina +2.5 over Las Vegas (NFL)
3* Arizona +6.5 over San Francisco (NFL)
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Elite Sports Picks
Green Bay +2.5 over Minnesota (NFL)
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National Sports Service
5* Tampa Bay/New Orleans OVER 47.5 (NFL)
3* Seattle -1.5 over Atlanta (NFL)
3* L.A. Rams +3 over Dallas (NFL)
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Total Sports Solutions (The Swami)
NFL 10* Game of the Week - Arizona Cardinals +7
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Bondi

5* Indy
3* Atl
3* Green Bay
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Adam Silverstein

ATLANTA -1
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:59 AM
This game is basically a pick 'em because there are a lot of unknowns about the Falcons. Will Todd Gurley be rejuvenated with a move to Atlanta? Will Keanu Neal be back to 100%? Which version of Matt Ryan are we going to get this season? At full strength in Week 1, I'm siding with the Falcons getting off to a hot start at home. The offensive line is rebuilt, they have a complete set of playmakers, and Neal will team with Deion Jones and Dante Fowler to play a big role in slowing down Russell Wilson. The swing on this line is not a coincidence, and it's also not stopping me.

6-1-1 IN LAST 8 SEA ATS PICKS | +486

9-4 IN LAST 13 ATL ATS PICKS | +463

GREEN BAY +2.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:32 AM
It was strange to see people act this offseason as if the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are done. Green Bay went 13-3 last year (sure, it probably should've been more like 12-5), and that was in Year 1 under a first-time coach in Matt LaFleur. The Packers are going to be able to run on the Vikings with Aaron Jones, take advantage with big plays by Aaron Rodgers and overcome the limited homefield advantage to open the season with a road upset ... as long as they don't let Dalvin Cook run wild. Back the Pack.

19-6-1 IN LAST 26 MIN ATS PICKS | +1249

5-1 IN LAST 6 GB ATS PICKS | +390
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MTI 5-star

5-Star Cowboys at Rams UNDER 51.5 The last time the Rams won as an underdog was in the playoffs of the 2017 season, beating the Saints 26-23 in overtime. Teams that were winless as a dog the previous season have been strong UNDER plays as a dog in week one. Specifically, week one dogs that were winless as a dog the previous season are 0-12 OU when they did not make the playoffs and won at least one game. The SDQL text is:

week = 1 and D and tpS(W@D)=0 and PRSW>0 and tpS(playoffs=1)=0

This system has one active date in 2018. The Cowboys qualified and the final score in that game was 16-8 - it was 10-0 after three-quarters. There was also one active date in 2019. The Packers qualified and the final there was 10-3.

The way to win as a dog is to not make mistakes. We expect a conservative approach from the Rams in a game that is likely to be decided by turnovers. Last season, the Rams played three home games in which the line was within three points of pickem. All three went UNDER and the average OU margin was minus 15 points.

Similarly, Dallas is 0-7 OU on the road on Sunday when the line is within three points of pickem. The SDQL is a straightforward:

team=Cowboys and A and -3<= line = 20171200

What is most impressive about this one is that Dallas last three games in this spot have stayed under by 23.5 points, 24.0 points and 20.5 points. Wow.

The play is the UNDER, as each team should wait for the other to make a mistake.

MTis FORECAST: Cowboys 20 Rams 17
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Primetime Sports Picks For 09/13/20
4 Unit --> Seattle/Atlanta OVER 49 (NFL)
3 Unit --> Miami +7 over New England (NFL)
3 Unit --> Philadelphia -5.5 over Washington (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports

4★ San Diego/Cincinnati UNDER 42 (NFL)

3★ Jacksonville +8 over Indianapolis (NFL)

3★ Tampa Bay/New Orleans OVER 47.5 (NFL)
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Jack Winningham

Eagles -6.
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Kenny White

NEW ORLEANS -3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
11:16 AM
This is not a fade of Tampa Bay because of the Tom Brady hype, but more the talented New Orleans Saints. I have the Saints' offensive line ranked No. 1, the offense No. 2 behind Kansas City and the defense No. 5. I also like the angle that Brady has had no game snaps with his new teammates. No preseason is a big advantage for New Orleans.

N.Y. JETS +6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:09 AM
A divisional rivalry in Week 1. Buffalo's Josh Allen is one of the least accurate quarterbacks when throwing the deep ball, and the New York Jets defense was No. 2 against the run last year. A big reason why both meetings last season were very low-scoring. Buffalo won 17-16 at New York and the Jets posted a 13-6 road triumph in the season finale as the Bills rested many starters for the playoffs. With no preseason, I would expect these two defenses to dominate, giving more value to the plus-6.5 points.

3-0 IN LAST 3 BUF ATS PICKS | +300

3-1 IN LAST 4 NYJ ATS PICKS | +187
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Winning Sports Plays

Cleveland Browns +8 (GOY)
Miami Dolphins +8
New York Jets +7
Washington +7
Arizona Cardinals +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4
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Bill Marzano

DENVER +8.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DENVER | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:37 AM
The Nuggets have a ton of fight in them and won't go down easy as they are 5-1 SU in elimination games this postseason. But Denver will need huge performances from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, as well as key contributions from role players like Michael Porter Jr., if it hopes to force a Game 7. The Clippers' bench didn't show up in Game 5, plain and simple. Los Angeles is trying to clinch the franchise's first conference finals appearance. The Nuggets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference semifinal games.

12-6 IN LAST 18 NBA PICKS | +475
3-2 IN LAST 5 LAC ATS PICKS | +80

TAMPA BAY -145
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 9/13 | 3:00 PM EDT
10:16 AM
The Islanders did a fantastic job to hold on and win Game 3, keeping this a series. However, winning back-to-back games won't be easy, as the Lightning haven't suffered consecutive losses yet this postseason. Tampa Bay has been the better team this series, so look for it to put together one of its best efforts of this series. The Lightning have won 14 of the last 19 meetings overall.

23-14 IN LAST 37 NHL ML PICKS | +466
10-2 IN LAST 12 TB ML PICKS | +729

7-4 IN LAST 11 NYI ML PICKS | +213

SEATTLE +135
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | 9/13 | 4:10 PM EDT
10:30 AM
Seattle's Justin Dunn is 3-1 on the season, while Arizona's Luke Weaver is just 1-6 with a 7.12 ERA. The Mariners are swinging the bat well right now and have won seven of their last 10 contests. The Diamondbacks are just 5-10 in the final game of a series while Seattle is 7-4. Arizona is just 1-12 in its last 13 against right-handers, 1-8 in its last nine as a favorite and 3-15 in its last 18 following a SU loss.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +75

BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:11 AM
The Bills are going to be a tough team, as they have plenty of talent up and down their roster and a very solid defense. The offense should be even better this year as QB Josh Allen continues to get stronger with each start and has plenty of weapons around him. He possesses a very strong arm and will stretch a Jets defense that is missing several players who have either been traded, opted opt or gotten hurt. New York has a ton of injuries on offense, so it should be a big day for Buffalo's defense.

TAMPA BAY +3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
For the record, I have the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs in Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, becoming the first team to win the title at home. The hype is real. Tom Brady has a ton of weapons and Tampa Bay will be much-improved on defense. The Buccaneers’ offensive scheme is going to cause a lot of matchup advantages. Without Jameis Winston turning the ball over, Tampa Bay will be better on both sides of the football. Drew Brees still has a ton of weapons at his disposal. New Orleans has a solid defense. This is going to be a close game, decided by a field goal.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NO ATS PICKS | +289

DALLAS -145
DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
The Rams were hoping to break in their new stadium in style, but there will be no fans in the stands. Los Angeles will have to wait to celebrate its first win in another week. This is a tough opening Sunday night draw. The Rams have some offensive line issues. I am still not sold on Jared Goff, and wonder if he will be able to limit his turnovers. The Cowboys are a very talented team with a ton to prove. Dak Prescott is coming off a career year, and his supporting cast is loaded with offensive weapons. The Dallas defense will be improved.

NEW ENGLAND -6.5
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
A new era begins in New England with Cam Newton taking over. He will be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. The Patriots are going to be a really good team with Newton at QB. His ability to run the football will open up the downfield passing game. The Patriots are still going to be great on defense. Bill Belichick is out to show he can win without Tom Brady. The Dolphins were 5-11 last year and although they are improved, Miami will struggle here, Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to make a few big plays but also some costly ones as usual. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS their last eight games in New England.

4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS | +177
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Brett Anderson

WASHINGTON +5.5
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:43 PM
The Football Team won only three games last season, but it played the Eagles close twice. And Philly is already banged up, especially at WR and on the O-line. That's not ideal against a team whose strength is on the D-line. The WFT won't have fans, but that could be a plus: Eagles backers won't be able to take over FedEx Field this time. Grab the points with the home divisional 'dog.

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
THU 9/10
The Cardinals played the 49ers close in both meetings last season, and Arizona has added DeAndre Hopkins along with several other new pieces. Kyler Murray should be even better in Year 2. Two Niners receivers, Deebo Samuel and rookie Brandon Aiyuk, are listed as questionable, while Emmanuel Sanders is now on the Saints. The Cardinals should at least be able to stay within a TD. Take the points.
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Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
FRI 9/11

BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Jets lost their two best defensive players, Jamal Adams (trade) and CJ Mosley (opt out), this offseason. A third projected starter, Patrick Onwuasor, is on injured reserve. Two of the team's top three wideouts, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims, are in question for Sunday. NY is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 AFC East games. Meanwhile, this might be the best Bills team since the 1990s. What am I missing here? Jump on this spread before it climbs to Buffalo -7 or higher.
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H&H Sports (Final Update)
NFL
Triple Dime - Colts -6.5 (-120)
Triple Dime - Buccaneers +3.5
Double Dime - Rams +3 (-120)
Dime Play - Seahawks +1.5
Dime Play - Vikings -123 (Moneyline)
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Victor King

3* Football Shootout

Bucs-Saints over

In Week One action of the 2002 NFL Season, our Totals Team is going to be going UNDER in most if our games. Except this one. I fact, this Bucs @ Saints game will be our ONLY ‘Over’ of the entire opening weekend. The OU line for this NFC South Division game opened at 49.5 points. As we type our writeup on Monday afternoon, the line has not moved. It still stands squarely at 49.5. Make sure you get your action in before it rises into the low 50’s. This Saints / Bucs series comes in on a recent OVER run. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over the Total (4-1 O/U). Average OU line: 49.9… Average combined points: 58.2… Average OU margin: +8.3 points per game….

In my article for the recent September issue of the PLAYBOOK ADVANTAGE, I did a database study on some of the recent OU tendencies in same-division play. And this is the only particular division in which the OVER has been profitable as of late. In the last two seasons, NFC SOUTH Division games have gone 12-2 O/U when (a) the home teams is FAVORED (like the SAINTS), and (b) the OU Line is 60 or less points…

All we are asking for in this one is for history to repeat itself. Like it does numerous times when we are querying in our database. For instance, New Orleans has been one the most reliable HOME ‘Over’ teams in all of football. In the last four years, New Orleans home games have averaged 60.5 combined points, 52.6, 59.8, and 51.3. The SAINTS have gone 9-1 O/U since 2013 as division home favorites when the OU line is 51 or less points (including a perfect 6- 0 O/U last 3 years). And to start off the season, our Totals Tipsheet newsletter reveals that New Orleans’ GAME ONES have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six seasons, with a gaudy average of 64.3 combined points per game. On the flip side, all sharp OU bettors know how strong Tampa OVERS were last season. They were the #1 Over team in all of football. In fact, The Bucs’ last 10 same-CONFERENCE games went a perfect 10-0 O/U to close the year (62.0 combined points per game). In the last three seasons, Buccaneer ROAD games have been ‘All About the OVER’. TAMPA has gone 18-5-1 O/U on the ROAD in there last 3 years, including 8-1 O/U when the OU line is 48 or more points. Average OU margin in these games: +18.1!

Three separate Game One queries ALL point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. The first one looks at same-conference game with HIGH Over / Under lines (like this one).
(1) 9-1 O/U since 2012 / 5-0 O/U since 2014: All NFC Conferece GAME ONE favs of > 3 pts when the OU Line is a HIGH > 48 points (SAINTS are -3.65 OU is 49.5)…

The next query looks at each team’s win totals from last season.
(2) 16-5-1 O/U since 2000 / 8-0 O/U since 2010: All GAME OINE favorites of 6 3 pts playing with REVENGE, when the OU line is > 38 points (BUCCANEERS)…

I ran one more query for NFL games in the first month of the season with a (relatively) HIGH Over / Under line. This one seals the deal for us.
20-8-1 O/U last 7 years (71% Overs): All games in the FIRST month of the season (GAMES 1-4) when (a) the OU Line is in the range of 48 to 52 points (BUCS @ SAINTS), and (b) the pointspread in the game is < 1 point. In same-DIVISION play, the results of this query improve to 8-1 O/U 89% Overs).
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Maddux

Rams +3 -115
Raiders/Carolina over 47.5
Teaser Packers +8.5 & Colts -2
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Bryant
3% Under 8 Red sox game
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Tom Stryker

15-6 ATS NFL CONFERENCE CRUSHER
Chargers

41-17 ATS NFL SUNDAY NIGHT SUPERPLAY
Cowboys
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Greg Shaker

Triple Dime: Jags
Double Dime: Vikings under 44.5 - 2* Play at 44 or better..
Double Dime: Cowboys over 51 - 2* OVER at 53 or better

Analysis: There are a number of reasons to love this play and we spotted it with all 3 models agreeing that this number is too high considering all to consider including the lack of practice and game time for NFL Teams this season. That does make a huge difference, especially for a Colts Squad who lay this many points in week one after struggling offensively last year. Defense will be ahead of offenses as the season begins and Indy does have a quality one. But the Jags have made improvements on both sides of the ball and we should see Gruden's bunch perform much better than the 6-10 squad did last season. We have a lot more to say here and we will will soon but let's get this one now while there are still some 7.5's to be had. We would play this one at +6 or better though. More to come as we get closer to game time which is still far away.

Game Week Notes: The news has not been great out of Jacksonville if you have been keeping up and this number is 8 to 9 now. We do still love this play though but adjusting our play down to number to +7.
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Youngstown
Seattle -2
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**TOP LJP Score of the Day achieved on Atlanta -1 over Seattle** Atlanta achieves an LJP 2U after opening as a 1.
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DR. CHUCK ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (459) Las Vegas Raiders at (460) Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 48.0 (-110)

View Analysis

TOP PLAY on our first big Sunday of the new Covid 2020 NFL season and a spot we think is WILDLY underrated, maybe almost a hidden aspect of the slate! (PLAY THIS LIKE A 5% PLAY!!!!!!)
Let's do quick snapshots of small aspects we have here....
Raiders are a road favorite against the extremely new look Panthers playing in Charlotte, by a margin of 3 points...so sight unseen we have a position where the Raiders would be nearly a double digit favorite were this venue flipped to Vegas....if you would agree with that, stop reading...if Panthers +9.5 would probably be your play of the decade, keep rolling with me here...
Twice the Raiders under Gruden have been road favorites and in each of those contests they allowed 34 points to the home team...while scoring 3.....3 total points! Now this would not be enough to cover our total here clearly, but we have a home team here who is almost in roster disarray on the defensive side. Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly retired following 2019 at just 29 years old, Poe and McCoy are gone, Bradberry was too expensive, Irvin, Addison, and Reid were all allowed to go, leaving just Short, Boston, and Donte Jackson really from the core of the defense under Rivera from last season. Matt Rhule wasn't brought in for his defensive prowess either, as an offensive guru, so this really isn't all that crazy. However, Teddy Bridgewater and Robbie Anderson were brought in and they moved on from Olson at TE, moving Ian Thomas into the lead role.
Offense offense offense is what I see from Carolina...and against the Vegas D this should be fun to watch...Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS in his short career as a dog, and here he is at home, against a team traveling all the way across the country...and with a defense that ranked 24th overall in 2019....but they are traveling to Charlotte to play a defense that ranked 31st in overall defense....BEFORE they completely took a facelift due to FA and retirements!
I am not sure why this hasn't sky rocketed up further toward 50, but I power rank this as a floor of 27-23 and a ceiling of 38-35 and the value here is NUTS....especially for a week 1 game!
Game: (455) Cleveland Browns at (456) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Browns +8.0 (-110)

View Analysis

DOES THIS MAKE ME A SHEEP?
Maybe it does, but wow this line is BATSHIT craziness to the nth degree. I line this game in the 4 range, but I also think the Browns are at least as likely to the be the outright dog winner of the day.
Here's what we know....
The Browns MASSIVELY underachieved their SB expectations of 2019, and the Ravens went nuts all over everyone and by a lot of points regularly, had the MVP in Lamar Jackson, then came crashing down hard to the Titans in the playoffs where they barely were competitive in the playoff game....solved?....maybe....but this number of points as a division rival and hated rival and with the wild dichotomy of last season....this line REEKS, and the public so eager to fade the Browns and Baker and OBJ and FO "disarray" and new head coach, therefore new system....I'll gladly go the other way....with a tiny wager on the ML if we're being honest.....but who cares, because the Browns getting the most points on the slate is LOONEY TOONS!
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NFL 10 Game of the Month Side Play · [470] Minnesota Vikings
The Blackwell Call Sun Sep 13th, 2020 1:00pm EDT
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Maddux Added
10 - Cincinnati - Chargers OVER 41
10 - Washington +6

Futures
10 -NYJ OVER 6 Wins -135
10 - Chicago UNDER 6 Wins -165
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