Thursday 11/11/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB & NBA games
HITMAN | NFL Teaser - Thursday, Nov 11 2021 8:20PM
BAL/CLE
(-120)Bookmaker 113 BAL vs 114 MIA double-dime bet
Analysis:
2* 6 PT TEASER: BAL -1/CLE +8.5 -120
The current market is saying Cleveland and NE are equal teams, which I strongly disagree with.
Miami is quite possibly overvalued as well. This is a horrific football team. 29th in net YPP, 29th in early down success rate. Brissett or a banged up Tua at quarterback. Baltimore is a bully who typically takes care of inferior opponents.
__________________
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Thursday, Nov 11 2021 8:20PM
Brown O56.5
(-115)William Hill 113 BAL vs 114 MIA single-dime bet
Analysis:
Marquise Brown (BAL) O56.5 Rec Yds -115 (Caesars/DK/SuperBook/365)
Per Rich Hribar, Brown leads the league in targets 15 or more yards down the field and Miami has allowed the most 15+ yard completions in the NFL. Brown has went over this number in every game this season aside from his drop filled game against Detroit (where he would have went for 100+ easily) and one blowout against the Chargers. Yes, I am worried about the game flow, but this number is flat out too low for an emerging player in an emerging passing offense.
__________________
Football Jesus
NCAA pitt and Under total
__________________
MTI Sports
6 point Teaser
Ravens -1.5, Browns +7.5
__________________
Gambling God Sports Picks
World Cup South America
ECUADOR
CFB
NORTH CAROLINA +7
NHL
BOSTON
Sports Handicapper King
WORLD CUP EUROPE
ROMANIA
NHL
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
NFL
MIAMI +7.5
NCAA B
NORTHERN COLORADO ML
__________________
greenpunter us
Baltimore Ravens -7.5
__________________
nbaclub info
Los Angeles Clippers – Miami Heat
Over 216
__________________
XS Sports Picks Thursday
NCAA Hoops YTD 3-2 +$3,200 (60% Winners)
5* Hawaii +1.5 -105 (12AM)
3* CSU Fullerton -5.5 (10pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Thursday
NBA YTD 31-14 +$45,200 (69% Winners)
5* LA Clippers -4 (10:30pm)
4* Utah Under 216 -110 (9pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Thursday
NFL YTD 39-37 +$31,860
Last 16 NFL Selections (12-4) +$31,300 (75% Winners)
5* Baltimore FH -4 -110 (8:20pm
3* Baltimore -7.5 -105 (8:20pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Thursday
NHL 34-29 +$36,790
2* New Jersey +121 (7pm)
3* Nashville +158 (8pm)
5* Vancouver +1.5 -130 (9pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Thursday
Last 11 NCAA FB Selections 8-3 (73% Winners) +$23,950
3* Pittsburgh -6.5 (7:30pm)
__________________
TMTW SPORTS
NFL / NFL YTD 40-34 (54%) +$8,520
4k Miami Over 46.5
NCAA FB / NCAA YTD 57-42 (58%) +$27,280
5k North Carolina Over 73
NCAA BK / NCAA YTD 5-1 (83%) +$7,800
4k Air Force Under 135.5
2k Evansville Under 131
2k Maryland Under 141
__________________
Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks:
NFL Double System Perfect Play....Baltimore Ravens
__________________
Northcoast Marquee
Pitt -6.5
Balt -7.5
__________________
Scott Richenbach
Ravens -7.5
__________________
World Worst Picker
NCAA Football:
Pitts
We take:
UNC
__________________
Dave Essler
3* TOM
76ers Under 212.5
__________________
CBS SportsLine Plays Thursday 11/11
Matt Severance
VERMONT @ NORTHERN IOWA | 11/11 | 6:00 PM EST
VERMONT +6
ANALYSIS: KenPom ranks Vermont at 106 nationally and Northern Iowa 128. The Catamounts are annual contenders in the America East Conference -- they won their fifth straight regular-season title last year -- and had two players named to the preseason all-conference team in reigning America East Player of the Year Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. I can't find a model that has UNI winning by more than four -- SportsLine's has it with a four-point margin. ESPN's power rankings have this as essentially a pick'em. Sagarin has UNI by 3.5 points.
CSFULLERTON @ SAN JOSE ST. | 11/11 | 10:00 PM EST
SAN JOSE ST. +6
ANALYSIS: Many models out there seem to think the wrong team is favored here -- the SportsLine Projection Model has the Spartans winning by 3. San Jose State wasn't good last season but has a new coach in Tim Miles and five Power 5 transfers. Cal State Fullerton fell 84-77 at Santa Clara on Tuesday. Fullerton probably wins but this spread is a few points too high. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites.
NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/11 | 7:30 PM EST
UNDER 73
ANALYSIS: Understandably, a matchup between Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett, potentially the first two QBs taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, has a monster total. However, the Heels' offense is really based on the running game first and foremost, which includes Howell. The Tar Heels run the ball 40.6 times per game, compared to 30.3 pass attempts per game. Pitt is excellent against the run. While that Panthers defense hasn't been great in the past two games, it was stellar the four prior to that. Long story short: I don't think the Heels top 30 points and even if Pitt scores 42 we win on this total. The SportsLine Projection Model has a final score of 40-30. Works for me.
__________________
Mike Tierney
FEATURED PICK
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI | 11/11 | 8:20 PM EST
MIAMI +7.5
ANALYSIS: The Ravens’ training room surely was busy Monday. Baltimore played a few ticks shy of five quarters on Sunday, and the quick turnaround that involves travel bodes ill for a tired team in its first road game since Oct. 3. QB Lamar Jackson was on the field for 46 minutes, throwing 41 times and rushing 21 more. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger), a late injury scratch on Sunday, is doubtful, leaving Jacoby Brissett to oversee an offense that committed five turnovers. He should be better prepared this time. Miami’s formidable rushing defense matches up well with run-minded Baltimore.
__________________
Jeff Hochman
CALGARY @ MONTREAL | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
CALGARY -135
ANALYSIS: Calgary owns a plus-91 shot differential, while the Canadiens are plus-2 this season. The Flames have scored 41 goals and allowed 26. Montreal has netted 28 tallies and yielded 48. Calgary is coming off a 4-1 loss despite outshooting San Jose 38-28. The Flames are ranked No. 14 in faceoff winning percentage, while Montreal is 29th. The Canadiens also have amassed the sixth-most penalty minutes in the NHL. This line will close at Calgary -150, so get down now.
__________________
Emory Hunt
NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/11 | 7:30 PM EST
NORTH CAROLINA +6.5
ANALYSIS: These games are always highly entertaining. I've gone to two of these Pitt-UNC night games, and they always end in a barnburner. That's why I don't understand the point spread here. To me, this should be a pick 'em game, as we're starting to see a much more dynamic UNC offense. Three points make more sense than 6.5. I'm on the Heels.
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI | 11/11 | 8:20 PM EST
BALTIMORE -7.5
ANALYSIS: Whomever plays at QB for the Dolphins between Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett will definitely have his hands full with the Ravens' defensive pressure. And while the Baltimore secondary isn't playing its best ball this season, that front seven can still affect the pocket of opposing QBs. Offensively speaking for the Ravens, we know that a strong run game travels rather well and that's what they have with Lamar Jackson, no matter the day of the week.
__________________
Max Gorenstein
GEORGE WASH. @ MARYLAND | 11/11 | 6:30 PM EST
GEORGE WASH. +19
ANALYSIS: The Colonials won their first game despite a second-half collapse. They showed a lot of potential, especially on defense. They held the Red Flash to 38 percent shooting from the field. The Colonials' biggest issues were that they allowed 13 offensive rebounds and sent the Red Flash to the line 33 times. The Terrapins were a terrible free-throw shooting team last season. In their first game, they shot just 15 of 23 on free throws. George Washington's stingy defense should allow the Colonials to stay within the number.
__________________
Justin Perri
N. COLORADO @ HAWAII | 11/12 | 12:00 AM EST
HAWAII +1.5
ANALYSIS: I have Hawaii as the favorite by 3.5 points in this matchup. It is notoriously hard to travel to Hawaii to play and this game starts at midnight Eastern time. You can expect a lot of chase action by the time tipoff comes, and I expect Hawaii to close with a worse number. This will likely be a close game, but Hawaii has an edge and might get the win outright.
PRAIRIE VIEW @ SAN FRAN. | 11/11 | 10:30 PM EST
PRAIRIE VIEW +17.5
ANALYSIS: I have this game at +14 for Prairie View, which looks to be the best team coming out of the SWAC and should be able to keep this one within 20. I'll jump on it as early as possible to secure the edge but there is potential for the line to move the other way a bit. The underdog should cover, regardless.
__________________
Mike Barner
MIAMI @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 11/11 | 10:30 PM EST
L.A. CLIPPERS -4
ANALYSIS: After an overtime loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, the Heat have a quick turnaround to play again Thursday. To complicate matters, Jimmy Butler suffered a sprained ankle that will likely keep him out. Not only is he averaging 23.6 points per game, he’s one of the keys to their defense, averaging 2.1 steals with his ability to guard multiple positions. There’s just too much going against the Heat in this matchup.
__________________
Matt Severance
LOS ANGELES @ OTTAWA | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
LOS ANGELES -115
ANALYSIS: Ottawa is severely short-handed right now because of a bit of a COVID outbreak and third-string netminder Filip Gustavsson will have to start because of it. He has allowed nine combined goals in his past two outings. I don't much like the Kings as a whole and probably wouldn't take them on the road in most other situations, but I certainly favor Jonathan Quick (2.26 GAA) in the goaltender matchup.
FLORIDA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
FLORIDA -124
ANALYSIS: Florida is on a two-game skid and was outscored 11-6 in those, but Spencer Knight was in net for those. It will be Sergei Bobrovsky here, and he's a stellar 6-0-0 with a 1.72 goals-against average and .948 save percentage. Pittsburgh could be down four defensemen (and is without Sidney Crosby) due to COVID/injury.
MERRIMACK @ N.J. TECH | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
MERRIMACK -2.5
ANALYSIS: Look, I don't know much about NJIT -- their own laughable website doesn't even have a media guide or preview of the team this season. I do know the Highlanders were 7-12 last year and their best player, Zach Cooks, transferred to Hofstra. All the models are saying that NJIT is better than Merrimack, but I don't agree with what I do know. The Warriors reached the NEC title game last year and are one of only five teams in the country to return 99 percent of its point production from a season ago. Merrimack also has a game under its belt, beating something called Emerson (Ralph Waldo? Fittipaldi?) College on Tuesday. KenPom also ranks Merrimack quite a bit higher.
NC STATE @ WAKE FOREST | 11/13 | 7:30 PM EST
UNDER 66.5
ANALYSIS: Wake Forest is third nationally in scoring at 44.7 ppg but NC State's defense is by far the best the Deacons have seen thus far as the Wolfpack are No. 3 nationally in third-down defense, No. 6 in scoring and No. 10 against the rush. All nine of NC State's opponents scored less than their season average and a handful by a wide margin. The Wolfpack also lead the ACC with 10 picks.
CALGARY @ MONTREAL | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
CALGARY -138
ANALYSIS: Montreal is obliterated by injury and Jake Allen has allowed at least three goals in three straight starts, losing each. The Habs are 1-8 in their past nine as dogs. Calgary has lost just once on the road and Jacob Markstrom had been terrific overall with a 1.69 GAA and .940 SV.
__________________
John Bollman
FLORIDA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
FLORIDA -125
ANALYSIS: Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to return for the Panthers and he will give Spencer Knight some much needed rest. Bobrovsky is 6-0-0 with a 1.71 GAA and .948 save percentage this season and the Panthers are coming off a bad loss. The Penguins are still without many key players including Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and they are just 3-3-2 at home this season. Take the Panthers to bounce back tonight.
ANAHEIM @ SEATTLE | 11/11 | 10:00 PM EST
ANAHEIM +145
ANALYSIS: The Ducks are one of the hottest teams in hockey right now with 5 straight wins. The Kraken are still just 4-8-1 on the season and they have lost 2 straight games. I have been staying away from heavy road dogs this season, but I am not sure why the Kraken are this big favorites. They have won just 4 out of 13 games this season and both teams are relatively healthy. I would go with the puck line but it is at -200 which is just ridiculous for a team that is an underdog. There just hasn’t been any value on puck lines at all this season so we will go with the hot underdog.
EDMONTON @ BOSTON | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
EDMONTON +120
ANALYSIS: Mikko Koskinen will be starting for the Oilers and he is 7-1-0 this season with a 2.54 GAA. Linus Ullmark will start for the Bruins over Jeremy Swayman and he has been solid. The Bruins are 5-0-0 at home this season but the Oilers are 9-2-0 on the season. The Oilers were one of the best road teams in the league last season, I like the value on the road team.
__________________
Matt Severance
TORONTO @ PHILADELPHIA | 11/11 | 7:00 PM EST
PHILADELPHIA -3
ANALYSIS: No Joel Embiid again for the Sixers, but the Raptors aren't really built to take advantage of that in the paint -- plus, they are without Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch. The Sixers will get back second-leading scorer Tobias Harris from COVID protocols and are likely to get back Seth Curry from a one-game injury absence. That should be enough to cover against a Raptors team playing the second of a B2B and on a three-game skid.
MIAMI @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 11/11 | 10:30 PM EST
L.A. CLIPPERS -141
ANALYSIS: There will be no Morris twins reunion as both are out. More important, the Heat are in the second of a back-to-back and without Jimmy Butler, who sprained his ankle in Wednesday's loss at the Lakers. The Heat entered this West Coast trip looking like the best team in the East but are 0-2 and now play a third game in four nights against a rested, rolling Clippers side.
__________________
Bob Balfe
Baltimore/Miami U47
__________________
MM SPORTS
Miami Under 47
__________________
Executive Sports
Pittsburgh under 73
__________________
Austin Alexander
Ravens -8
__________________
Harry Bondi
3 Ravens
__________________
GUS AUGUSTINE
100 Dime
MAX WAGER
Thursday Night AFC Game of the Year
The Pick: 100 Dime Baltimore Ravens
__________________
CHRIS JORDAN
300♦
College Hoops
Non-Conference Opening Line Mistake
The Pick: 300♦ Washington Huskies
__________________
DOM CHAMBERS
Metropolitan Game of the Week
The Pick: My 40 Dime play is on the New York Islanders
__________________
TRACE ADAMS
Raise The Bar
1500♦
ACC Lock
The Pick: 1500♦ on the Pittsburgh Panthers
__________________
JAY MCNEIL
ACC Total of the Month
The Pick: 50 DIME play on North Carolina-Pittsburgh Over the Total.
__________________
MITCHELL NEWMAN
College Hoops Best Bet
Selection: 40 Dime winner on the UC Riverside Highlanders
__________________
KIRBY MAXWELL
Thursday Night AFC Total of the Year
RATING: 60 Dime
PLAY: Under Dolphins-Ravens
__________________
AL DEMARCO - GM
Top-Rated 15-Dime
2-Team Teaser of the Month
Pick: 15 Dime two-team, seven-point teaser on Baltimore and Pitt.
__________________
STEVE BUDIN - CEO
CALI-CARTEL
Opening College Hoops Lock
Pick: 50 Dime - Arizona State
__________________
Scott Spreitzer
3* Winnipeg
__________________
JJ SPORTS
Vermont ml
__________________
August Young
4-Unit Play: Take #783 Over 137.5 -110 in Northern Colorado vs. Hawaii
__________________
Big Al
NCAABB
UNI -5.5
Creighton -19
Washington -15.5
NCAAF
Pitt -6.5
NHL
WPG ML
__________________
CleInsiderSports
NFL
Dolphins +8.5
NBA
Heat +5
CBB
Vermont +6
NHL
Predators ML (+160)
Kraken ML (-155)
Wild ML (-105)
__________________
Hot Shot Sports
NCAAB
3* #783 No. Colorado -1.5
__________________