Thursday 9/1/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & NCAAF games
LockCity
Penn st -3.5
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BRAD POWERS
.5*Minnesota Under
1*Pittsburgh
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Tom Fornelli
CFB | NEW MEXICO ST. @ MINNESOTA | 09/01 | 9:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -37
ANALYSIS: New Mexico State looked pretty lackluster in their season-opening loss against Nevada, but this pick isn't based on their performance as much as the timing of it. The Aggies played late Saturday night and now face a quick turnaround to face Minnesota on a Thursday night. The Gophers should cruise Thursday night.
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Barrett Sallee
CFB | LOUISIANA TECH @ MISSOURI | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
LOUISIANA TECH +19
ANALYSIS: Calm down, Missouri fans. This one will be easy. But the run-first identity of the Tigers has to be re-established and the defense has to take a big step up in order for me to buy into what coach Eli Drinkwitz is selling. Brady Cook will lead the Tigers to a win, but the Bulldogs return eight starters, including all four starting defensive linemen. This will be a two-touchdown game and a potential backdoor cover.
CFB | WEST VIRGINIA @ PITTSBURGH | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
WEST VIRGINIA +7
ANALYSIS: I can't tell you how happy I am that the Backyard Brawl is back. This is one of the most intense rivalries in the country, and the added storyline of two former USC quarterbacks squaring off against each other makes this one extra spicy. I still believe in Mountaineers quarterback JT Daniels and what should be a much better defense, and I can't buy into the new-look Pittsburgh offense yet. This one will be a field goal game one way or the other.
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Max Gorenstein
CFB | PENN ST. @ PURDUE | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 53.5
ANALYSIS: The Nittany Lions were the second best Under team last season with the Under cashing in 10 of their 13 games. Their average game had just 42.3 points, fifth lowest in FBS. The Nittany Lions slow down the game and are very comfortable playing in low scoring games. The Boilermakers started last season with six straight Unders. Their offense wasn't good until Week 9 last season. Expect the same thing to happen this season with their offensive struggles. Under is the play.
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Emory Hunt
CFB | BALL ST. @ TENNESSEE | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
TENNESSEE -34.5
ANALYSIS: The Volunteers have a ton of experience on both sides of the ball, and that will play a large role in this game. QB Hendon Hooker is a super senior leading a high-octane offense that's entering its second season in the same up-tempo system. Ball State is breaking in some new pieces on defense, as well as a new quarterback who will be facing a very strong pass rush.
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Tom Fornelli
CFB | PENN ST. @ PURDUE | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
PENN ST. -3
ANALYSIS: I don't want to dismiss Purdue's accomplishments last season, but I believe it overperformed slightly and I'm skeptical it will be able to maintain those results considering how much its lost. Meanwhile, Penn State is being underrated in the market because of mediocre results the last couple of seasons, but it's the far more talented team on both sides of the ball.
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Chip Patterson
CFB | WEST VIRGINIA @ PITTSBURGH | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
UNDER 51
ANALYSIS: It ain't called the Backyard Shootout, it's called the Backyard Brawl. The fabric of this rivalry, renewed on Thursday night for the first time since 2011, is rock fights where every yard is earned and the defenses rule the day. While the two former USC quarterbacks -- JT Daniels for WVU, Kedon Slovis for Pitt -- will dominate the conversation, both teams are stronger on the defensive side of the ball. There's also the matter of Pitt's offense evolving through the loss of Kenny Pickett, Jordan Addison and OC Mark Whipple and the implementation of a new offense. Signs point to a team that's going to run the ball a little more than it did in 2021, rely on its advantage at the line of scrimmage and, for our purposes, play a style that sets up well for unders.
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Max Gorenstein
CFB | PENN ST. @ PURDUE | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 53.5
ANALYSIS: The Nittany Lions were the second best Under team last season with the Under cashing in 10 of their 13 games. Their average game had just 42.3 points, fifth lowest in FBS. The Nittany Lions slow down the game and are very comfortable playing in low scoring games. The Boilermakers started last season with six straight Unders. Their offense wasn't good until Week 9 last season. Expect the same thing to happen this season with their offensive struggles. Under is the play.
CFB | BALL ST. @ TENNESSEE | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
BALL ST. +34.5
ANALYSIS: Tennessee is the much better team, but this spread is six or seven points too high. The Cardinals are coming off of their second straight year making a bowl game. The Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games against Power 5 teams. They haven't lost a game by 35+ points since 2018. The Volunteers defense is not very good. The Cardinals will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.
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Dave Cokin:
Pitt -7
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Totals Guru
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma St. U 60.5
Penn State vs. Purdue U 54.5
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GIANNI THE GREEK
4*Missouri Over 60
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PREFERRED SPORT
Game: (141) Ball State at (142) Tennessee
Date/Time: Sep 1 2022 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2 units
Play: Tennessee -35.0 (-110)
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Dave Cokin:
Pitt -7
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Steve Fezzik
CFL (YTD: 14-16, -5.25u)
2* OTT +5
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Stephen Nover
CFL (YTD: 10-10, +1u)
3* OTT +5.5
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Goodfella
CFL (YTD: 12-9, +9u. 3* ONLY: 6-2, +11.4u)
3* OTT +5
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Root
Chairman - Purdue +3.5
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mlb-undertips
Detroit Tigers – Seattle Mariners
Under 7.5
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Micah Roberts
CFB | WEST VIRGINIA @ PITTSBURGH | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH -7
ANALYSIS: This is a battle of disgruntled former USC teammates at QB and also a battle of teams bringing back all five offensive linemen. I figure Pitt will win by double-digits. QB Kenny Pickett is tough to replace, but Kedon Slovis was impressive at USC in 2019 (30 touchdowns, nine interceptions). Pitt also returns seven starters on defense and a kicker who made 17-of-21 field goals last season. West Virginia will benefit with JT Daniels at QB, but I’m taking Pitt at home, laying the points.
CFB | PENN ST. @ PURDUE | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
PURDUE +3.5
ANALYSIS: I think the wrong team is favored. Penn State won its first five games last season but only two of its final eight. Its offense was lackluster under first-year coordinator Mike Yurcich, and despite having senior QB Sean Clifford back, I don’t see his protection being much better as only two offensive linemen return. Just 10 starters in total are back for the Nittany Lions, and the kicker isn't one of them. Purdue has a huge edge at quarterback, tight end and kicker. The Boilermakers have 16 starters returning from a 9-4 squad. Take Purdue and the points.
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ZITI SPORTS (card 2)
MLB
Baltimore Orioles +160 Cleveland Guardians (6:10 PM)
Arizona Diamondbacks +113 Milwaukee Brewers (9:40 PM)
CFB
West Virginia +7.5 -110 Pittsburgh (7:00 PM)
Louisiana Tech vs Missouri OVER 61.5 -110 (8:00 PM)
CFL (9/2-9/5)
9/2
Ottawa Redblacks +5 -110 Montreal Alouettes (7:30 PM)
9/5
Toronto Argonauts vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats OVER 49.5 -110 (1:00 PM)
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Jimmy Adams
4%
(955) Milwaukee Brewers at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks +120 M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
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Carmine Bianco
4% Manchester United at Leicester City
Total Over 3.0 (+110)
4% Torino at Atalanta
Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Amedeus Mastrangelo
9* Purdue +3.5
9* Louisiana Tech +20.5
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newworldinsiders
NCAA INSIDER: West Virginia OV 51
SEC INSIDER: Tennessee -35
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yobabydaddy2b
PURDUE +3.5
NEW MEXICO ST +36.5
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CleInsiderSports
MLB
Royals/White Sox O9
CFB
Central Michigan/Oklahoma State U58.5
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Marco D'Angelo
4% ML PARLAY - (144) PITT PANTHERS / (954) ATLANTA BRAVES
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Rob Vinciletti
MLB PLATINUM SUPREME OPEN ENDED 1/1 MASTERPIECE
Rangers-Red Sox Over 9.5 (-108) Otto / Hill Must Start
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Root
reserve- Oakland
Pinnacle- La dodgers
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The Winners Circle – Thursday Sports Plays
NCAA FOOTBALL
Play Minnesota -36.5 over New Mexico State
Play Oklahoma State -21.5 over Central Michigan
Play Pittsburgh -7.5 over West Virginia
MLB BASEBALL
Play Cleveland -180 over Baltimore
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -145 over New York Mets
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ASHLEY COVERS
UNIVERSITY of PITTSBURGH -7.5
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The Champ Team
College Football Games
Central Michigan +21.5
West Virginia +7.5
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AJ Hoffman CFB
3* N MEX ST
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aaa
white sox
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sean murphy
dodgers
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Marco D'Angelo
[MLB] (955) Milwaukee Brewers at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Time: 9:40 PM EDT Total Under 7.5 (-118) B Woodruff (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must
2% (956) MILWAUKEE/ARIZONA UNDER 7.5
TAKE MILWAUKEE/ARIZONA UNDER 7.5 as my 2% MLB PLAY
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GIANFRANCO1114 1st half system plays
Pittsburgh / West Virginia 25.5 OVER
Penn St / Purdue 27 OVER
Louisiana Tech / Missouri 31.5 OVER
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BRAD POWERS
added
.5*Bryant +13.5
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Dave Essler
3* GOY
Dbacks +120
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Bobby Ligs
5% [CFB] (145) Penn State at (146) Purdue
Time: 8:00 PM EDT Purdue +3.5 (-115)
Analysis: 5% play to +3
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The Insider's Game Picks
Oklahoma State Over 58
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Delphi Sports
MLB
3* #955 Milwaukee -1.5 runs +126
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Arthur ralph
redsox
seattle
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kelso
50 diamondbacks
15 mets
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J B's PA Connection
8 Unit - Under Milwaukee Brewers / Arizona Diamondbacks
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R&R TOTALS
*TOP PLAY* MLB: Take #963 Rangers v #964 Red Sox OVER (9½ -110) (7:10 PM EST)
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Bobby Ligs
5% Purdue +3.5 (-115) play to +3
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Northcoast
Top Opinions:
Thursday Marquee - Pittsburgh (-7.5) West Virginia 7pm ESPN
Under 58 Central Michigan/Oklahoma St 7pm FS1
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LockCity
Penn St ml
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SouthFloridaPlays
NCAAF
Purdue +3.5
Penn St un 54.5
Tennessee -34.5
Tennessee ov 65
Pitt -7
West Virginia un 51
Minnesota un 53
Central Michigan +22
Central Michigan un 58.5
Missouri ov 61
Akron ov 53
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D3Bettor
Dodgers ML -135
Dodgers -1.5 +130
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Kelso
15 Purdue
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John Bollman
MLB | MILWAUKEE @ ARIZONA | 09/01 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA +115
ANALYSIS: Merrill Kelly is 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last 7 starts. Brandon Woodruff is 2-0 with a 2.34 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Dbacks bullpen is ranked dead last since the trade deadline but that’s inflated by last night’s game, the Brewers also aren’t much better at 18th. The Dbacks are 16-11 since the trade deadline while the Brewers are 12-15. The Dbacks are 7-6 at home since the trade deadline while the Brewers are 3-9 on the road. Take the value on the Diamondbacks while they’re hot.
MLB | TEXAS @ BOSTON | 09/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
TEXAS +150
ANALYSIS: Glen Otto has been pitching really well lately while Rich Hill is coming off 7 shutout innings. The Rangers bullpen is ranked 11th since the deadline while the Red Sox are ranked 29th though. The Rangers are also ranked 5th in wOBA against lefties since the deadline. The Rangers are actually better on the road lately at 5-4 since the trade deadline and on the season at 30-33. Take the value on the Rangers.
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Micah Roberts
CFB | WEST VIRGINIA @ PITTSBURGH | 09/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH -7
ANALYSIS: This is a battle of disgruntled former USC teammates at QB and also a battle of teams bringing back all five offensive linemen. I figure Pitt will win by double-digits. QB Kenny Pickett is tough to replace, but Kedon Slovis was impressive at USC in 2019 (30 touchdowns, nine interceptions). Pitt also returns seven starters on defense and a kicker who made 17-of-21 field goals last season. West Virginia will benefit with JT Daniels at QB, but I’m taking Pitt at home, laying the points.
CFB | PENN ST. @ PURDUE | 09/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
PURDUE +3.5
ANALYSIS: I think the wrong team is favored. Penn State won its first five games last season but only two of its final eight. Its offense was lackluster under first-year coordinator Mike Yurcich, and despite having senior QB Sean Clifford back, I don’t see his protection being much better as only two offensive linemen return. Just 10 starters in total are back for the Nittany Lions, and the kicker isn't one of them. Purdue has a huge edge at quarterback, tight end and kicker. The Boilermakers have 16 starters returning from a 9-4 squad. Take Purdue and the points.
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Youngstown Tony picks
Purdue plus 3 1/2.
2 unit.
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Larry Hartstein
MLB | COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 09/01 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -1.5
ANALYSIS: This Braves' runline play at -175 is very expensive, but worth it given the matchup. Colorado has scored six runs over its last four games and is worse versus right-handed pitching. Rookie phenom Spencer Strider has given up one or zero earned runs in his last six home starts. Look for Atlanta to get to Chad Kuhl (9.39 ERA last seven starts) and run away with this one.
MLB | MILWAUKEE @ ARIZONA | 09/01 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA +115
ANALYSIS: Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA over his last 11 starts. Brandon Woodruff boasts some impressive numbers as well, but he's been more vulnerable on the road (4.34 ERA compared to 2.22 at home). With Milwaukee having lost 10 of its last 13 road games, I'll take a shot w/ the home dogs.
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