Tuesday 10/12/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games
Martin Green
England vs. Hungary (Tuesday, 2:45 p.m.)
England win to nil -187 (1 unit)
England 2-0 +380 (0.25 unit)
England 3-0 +480 (0.25 unit)
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james-martingale
ASIA: World Cup – Qualification
Oman – Vietnam
Second Half : Over 1.5 Goals
Odds : 2.30 / 4 units
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redondo23
EUROPE: World Cup
Sweden – Greece
2 or 3 goals
Odds : 2.00
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Big Al
TUESDAY NCAA SUN BELT GAME OF WEEK!
Louisiana Lafayette +5.5
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World Worst Picker
Louisiana Lafayette +5.5
We take: App State
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Carmine Bianco
4% - REGULATION Tampa Bay Lightning -140
4% - Azerbaijan at Serbia Total Over 3.0 (-115)
4% - Denmark -1.0 (vs Austria)
4% - 1H Switzerland -0.75 (vs Lithuania)
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Nick Borrman
3% - Azerbaijan +2.25 (-120) (vs Serbia)
4% - Denmark -1.0 (-120) (vs Austria)
3% - Israel -2.0 (-120) (vs Moldova)
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KEVIN THOMAS
Kevins MLB - Tuesdays ALDS TKO
Game: (973) Houston Astros at (974) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Oct 12 2021 2:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Houston Astros +106 L Mccullers Jr (RHP), C Rodon (LHP) Must Start
WhiteSox(1-2) need to win or go home. The rain delay gives the Astros(2-1) a huge advantage at the pitcher spot. Look for the Astros to set a date with the RedSox. My TKO is the Astros moneyline.
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ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Astros
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Andrew Jett
MLB
Astros -107
Dodgers
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Chris Ruffolo
MLB
Braves -150
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The Prez
4% - over 8 Braves/Brewers Action
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August Young
*2 Seattle Kraken +210
*2 Seattle Kraken +1.5 -115
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Big Al
MLB Dodgers
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ASA Inc
MLB total on Under Braves
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Sean Murphy
NHL Play on Tampa Bay
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Diamond Club Group
5U SOX - 105
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Master Sports
MLB
4* #961/962 Brewers/Braves under 8.5 (Lauer/Morton)
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DR BOB
Appalachian State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less and a Strong Opinion at -5
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John Bollman
11:28 AM
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 10/12 | 5:15 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Both teams have been terrible with the bats, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in a game yet and no total going over 3. I don’t see the bats waking up today, especially with the wind blowing in. Both teams will have just about all options available out of the bullpen in any sign of trouble also. Take the under.
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 10/12 | 9:07 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -153
ANALYSIS: Tony Gonsolin will be pitching for the Dodgers playoff lives against Anthony Desclafani after the Dodgers were shut out for the second time in three matchups in this series. Anthony Desclafani will be making his playoff debut and he did not pitch well against the Dodgers this season, although he has been pitching well lately. Tony Gonsolin will be making his fourth career playoff start and he hasn’t pitched very well at all in the playoffs, but he should be on a very short leash. Gonsolin has been better at home and last night was the first game the Dodgers lost at home since the beginning of September. Expect an offensive explosion from the Dodgers tonight, this series was destined to go 5.
PITTSBURGH @ TAMPA BAY | 10/12 | 7:30 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -190
ANALYSIS: As Severance mentioned, Sidney Crosby had surgery in September and just recently returned to practice. His timetable to return to games is not yet known. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning will be raising their banner after not having a full stadium of fans in 2 years. The Penguins have lost 7 of their last 9 games straight up against the Lightning and they haven’t won in Tampa Bay since 2017. Take the Lightning at home.
SEATTLE @ VEGAS | 10/12 | 10:00 PM EDT
SEATTLE +190
ANALYSIS: This will be the Kraken’s first game so who knows how they will play, but I think that gives us some value honestly. Philip Grubauer has faced the Golden Knights plenty and he has a 2.10 GAA and .932 save percentage against them in 11 career games, so he is more than capable of stealing one in Vegas. This is also Robin Lehner’s first game as starting goalie after trading Marc Andre Fleury to the Blackhawks in the offseason, and the Knights first game after their shocking loss in the Conference Finals to the Canadiens. Take the value on the Kraken.
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Matt Severance
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 10/12 | 5:15 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: I'm sure now that I've ignored betting the total in the first three games and each one totaled just three runs that this will be a shootout since I'm going Under 8.5 runs, but the Brewers simply are not hitting -- 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position and batting .176 overall. It is expected to be Braves ace Charlie Morton on short rest but with plenty of options behind him against Milwaukee's Eric Lauer on normal rest. He went 6-2 with a 2.23 ERA over his last 15 games.
APP. ST. @ LOUISIANA | 10/12 | 7:30 PM EDT
LOUISIANA +5
ANALYSIS: Rather interesting this number has climbed to App State -5 in what could be a Sun Belt title game preview. Louisiana is 15-3 at home under Coach Billy Napier and also won at the Mountaineers last season. UL is 32-5 when scoring 20 or more points under Napier, and I don't see App State holding the Cajuns under that number. While I understand why the Mountaineers are favored, Louisiana certainly could win and should stay within four at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 10/12 | 9:07 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -153
ANALYSIS: No starting pitcher named yet for LA (perhaps Tony Gonsolin) but it will be all hands on deck for the Dodgers other than Max Scherzer as they look to avoid elimination. I just struggle to see them being completely shut down offensively again -- they were also blanked in Game 1 but then rebounded with nine runs in Game 2. Meanwhile, it's Anthony DeSclafani for the Giants and he was 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in six starts vs. the Dodgers this year. I'm sure he will be pulled quickly, too, if he struggles. San Francisco probably won't have fire-balling reliever Camilo Doval available as he went two innings on Monday. Another top reliever, Tyler Rogers, went 1.2 innings so he might not be available, either.
SEATTLE @ VEGAS | 10/12 | 10:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5.5
ANALYSIS: I'm not loving my pick of Seattle +1.5 as much now with the news that the Kraken tonight will be without several forwards on the COVID list/due to injury. I think they will struggle to score this season regardless, but especially tonight against a Golden Knights squad that's always among the best in the NHL defensively. Here's hoping Seattle netminder Philipp Grubauer can still keep this a low-scoring one-goal game as we will also hit the Under 5.5 goals with all that Kraken firepower on the bench. They could well be shut out.
SEATTLE @ VEGAS | 10/12 | 10:00 PM EDT
SEATTLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Look, I don't know if the Kraken will be any good in their expansion season. Will they reach the Stanley Cup Final like Vegas did in its expansion season? I think it's fair to say no. There doesn't appear to be a ton of offense on the Seattle roster, but the team has a very deep defensive group led by former Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano. The Kraken are also stacked in net, led by Philipp Grubauer. Still shocked the Avalanche let him get away. Grubauer was No. 2 in the league last year in GAA at 1.95. I'll be hammering Seattle Unders a lot this season, and I'd lean the Under 5.5 goals here as well but will take the Kraken on the puckline because they are going to treat their debut like a playoff game. Vegas also dealt away its No. 1 netminder in Marc-Andre Fleury and while new No. 1 Robin Lehner is pretty good, he's not the Flower. Lehner also reportedly is dealing with an injury (still expected to play) and didn't look great in the preseason.
PITTSBURGH @ TAMPA BAY | 10/12 | 7:30 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -168
ANALYSIS: Will there be a Stanley Cup hangover for the Lightning? Maybe early in the season, but I don't see it in Game 1 as another banner will be raised to the rafters. The Bolts lost some depth in the offseason to free agency/expansion draft but still are loaded. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, will be without Sidney Crosby for a bit and Evgeni Malkin for perhaps the first half of the year if not longer. Two other key players, Jake Guentzel and Zach Aston-Reese, are on the COVID list (update: Aston-Reese is off it now but still may not play Tuesday due to conditioning). The Penguins aren't going to be very good until at least Crosby returns. I'd also lean Under 6 goals here because Pittsburgh likely will struggle to score without Crosby and Malkin.
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Insider Sports Report
3* Louisiana +5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
Range: +6.5 to +2.5
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Primetime Sports Picks
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MEMBER PICKS For 10/12/21
4 Unit --> Appalachian St./Louisiana UNDER 57.5 (NCAAF)
3 Unit --> Houston (McCullers) +105 over Chicago White Sox (Rodon) (ALREADY STARTED)
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Marquee Picks® For 10/12/21
4★ Louisiana +5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
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