Tuesday 8/23/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & NCAAF games
The Winners Circle – Tuesday Sports Plays
MLB BASEBALL
Play San Diego -145 over Cleveland
Play Toronto -140 over Boston
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Ashley covers
baltimore orioles m/l
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Jimmy Adams 4%
(929) Miami Marlins at (930) Oakland Athletics
Miami Marlins -134 P Lopez (RHP), Z Logue (LHP) Must Start
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Brian Bitler
9* MLB Tuesday Money in the Bank
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+105)
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Eric Pauly
5% MLB Play of the Week
Miami Marlins -135 (listed)
I have identified 5% of the value on the Marlins ML -135 at the A's. I have this priced at MIA -172, so at -135, there is 5% of value.
Pablo Lopez will make the start for the Marlins on the road in Oakland tonight. Lopez had a great start to the season, but he has gotten rocked as of late. In his last three starts, Lopez has allowed 12 runs on 19 hits over 15.1 innings of work. On the season, he is 7-8 with a 3.83 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 3.77 FIP. On the road this season, Lopez has a 3.34 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 1.13 WHIP, and he has left 81.7% of runners left on base. His ability to keep runners from scoring on the road will help the Marlins, who struggle mightily vs. left-handed pitching.
Zach Logue will make the start for the A’s at home against the Marlins. Logue is 3-7 on the season with a 6.35 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 5.88 FIP. In his last two starts, Logue allowed 13 runs on 14 hits over 9.2 innings of work. At home this season, Logue has a 4.74 ERA, a 4.39 FIP, and a 1.42 WHIP. Logue can take advantage of a Marlins lineup that has struggled against lefties all year, but he needs to improve himself. The rookie has allowed a run in every start but one this season, and he has never gone more than six innings in a Major League game.
Lopez is clearly the better pitcher, but the Marlins need to step up against a lefty. My numbers are clearly pointing to Miami, and I expect them to come away with the win tonight in Oakland.
PLAY: 5% MIA ML -135; Downgrade to 4% at MIA ML -170 or worse
2% NY Mets -110 listed
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Totals Guru
Twins vs. Astros O 8
Sky vs. Liberty U 167.5
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Marco D'Angelo 4%
(927) Cleveland Guardians at (928) San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -142 A Civale (RHP), M Clevinger (RHP) Must Start
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Razor Sharp Totals (Long Term Fades)
Yesterday 0-1 / Run 23-20
2* Oakland Under 7.5
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Knockout Sports Picks
Yesterday - PASS / Run 25-20
2* Kansas City +110
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #911/912 White Sox/Orioles under 7.5
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jack jones
20 white sox
15 sea rl
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mike lundin
10
sea rl
ml
miami
white sox
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dave price
7 goy sea rl
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scott richenbach
10 phillies rl
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sean murphy
braves rl
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jim feist
parlay
cardinals rl
atlanta rl
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big al
white sox
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damico
astros rl
braves rl
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Wayne Root
Root reserve - Cleveland
gold standard- Miami
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WUnderdog
mlb
ST>LOUIS -189 vs chicago cub 2:20 et
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Marco D'Angelo 4%
(927) Cleveland Guardians at (928) San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -142 A Civale (RHP), M Clevinger (RHP) Must Start
ADDEDD
3%
(905) Atlanta Braves at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
ATLANTA / SAN FRANCISCO ML PARLAY
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King Crole
2* Bluejays
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Ziti
MLB
Baltimore Orioles +122 Chicago White Sox (7:07 PM)
Texas Rangers +100 Colorado Rockies (8:40 PM)
San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers OVER 7 +100 (7:10 PM)
WNBA PLAYOFFS
Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty UNDER 165.5 -110 (9:30 PM)
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Tony Mejia
5% [MLB] (921) San Francisco Giants at (922) Detroit Tigers
Time: 7:10 PM EDT San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-123) C
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Dodgers -140
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kelso
50 orioles
15 mets
15 oakland over
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Adam Trigger
Reds +1.5 (5%)
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IC
WNBA -26.8u (39-42)
5* Liberty +7 vs Sky
4* White Sox -140
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Dave Cokin
MLB
3% Pirates/Braves 1H under 4 (-120) - Action
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Matt Severance
MLB | ST. LOUIS @ CHI. CUBS | 08/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -195
ANALYSIS: Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are out of the Game 1 lineup for Chicago, which gives Javier Assad his first big-league start on the mound. Assad was promoted to Triple-A Iowa at the beginning of July, and posted a 2.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 36.2 innings over eight appearances there. He is not among the team's Top 30 prospects. Adam Wainwright starts for the Cards and he's always been a Cubs-killer (1.29 ERA in 14 innings this year). St. Louis appears to be starting everyone of note in the lineup.
MLB | MILWAUKEE @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/23 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -155
ANALYSIS: Can't say I'd normally recommend fading Brewers ace Corbin Burnes (9-5, 2.48), but the Dodgers no doubt will be plenty motivated tonight after being blanked at home Monday for the first time this season. Burnes was just OK last week vs. the Dodgers. Plus, LA's Tony Gonsolin (15-1, 2.12 ERA) has been better than Burnes overall in 2022. Gonsolin shut out the Brewers on two hits over seven last Wednesday. LA has lost back-to-back games just once since the break.
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John Bollman
MLB | N.Y. METS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. METS +110
ANALYSIS: Taijuan Walker is sliding back into the rotation tonight and he was hit hard recently, however he also pitched a quality start against the Yankees earlier this season. Frankie Montas is making his fourth start for the Yankees and he has allowed 14 ER in 14 IP. The Yankees bullpen is a mess right now with Scott Effross and Clay Holmes on the IL, so I have to take the chance on the Mets as underdogs here. The Mets are 21-10 since the All-Star break while the Yankees are 11-20. The Yankees have lost 14 of their last 19 games overall.
MLB | TEXAS @ COLORADO | 08/23 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -120
ANALYSIS: German Marquez has been pitching much better lately with quality starts in six of his last seven outings. Dane Dunning is much worse on the road at 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA and he will be pitching in Coors Field. The Rockies are just 10-20 since the All-Star break but they are 7-8 at home in that span and they just won a home series against the Giants. The Rangers just won a series against the Twins, but they aren’t hitting at all right now. The Rockies are 35-31 at home this season, take the Rockies at home.
MLB | CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE +115
ANALYSIS: Dylan Cease allowed more than 1 ER in his last start for the first time since May 24th. He is my main concern here, but he hasn’t been getting deep in games so if the Orioles can keep it close they should be fine. Austin Voth has turned his career around since going to the Orioles, he is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 14 games and 10 games started with them. The Orioles bullpen is ranked 9th in the league since the All-Star break but the White Sox bullpen is ranked second worst. The White Sox are 16-14 since the ASB but they are just 5-8 on the road. Take the value on the Os.
MLB | TORONTO @ BOSTON | 08/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -140
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays are 10-3 against the Red Sox this season and they have won five of the six games at Fenway Park including that dominant 28-5 win. Ross Stripling came off the IL to pitch six scoreless innings against the Orioles last outing and he has pitched well against the Red Sox three times this season. Josh Winckowski is the Red Sox worst starter right now, he was optioned to Triple A after his last start but Nathan Eovaldi’s return to the IL prompted his return. He struggles with both walks and home runs and that is a terrible combination against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays also have the second-best bullpen in the league since the All-Star break while the Red Sox are ranked dead last. It’s juicy but for good reason.
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Larry Hartstein
MLB | TORONTO @ BOSTON | 08/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -140
ANALYSIS: Toronto has won its last five games at Fenway Park and I like the Blue Jays to make it six behind Ross Stripling, who took a perfect game into the seventh inning last time out. He owns a 3.21 ERA in three starts versus the Red Sox this season. Boston starter Josh Winckowski would still be in Triple-A if not for an injury to Nathan Eovaldi. In his last start against the Pirates, Winckowski got lit up for six earned runs in five innings -- allowing two homers among the seven hits. Lay the price.
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Zack Cimini
MLB | TEXAS @ COLORADO | 08/23 | 8:40 PM EDT
TEXAS -105
ANALYSIS: The Rockies' plight post All-Star break has been significant. Once just eight games under .500, they are now 17 games under. Meanwhile Texas' Dane Dunning has pitched significantly better over the last month. Additionally, the Rangers come in on a three-game win streak. I'm backing Texas.
MLB | N.Y. METS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -130
ANALYSIS: Even great teams have to work out of a slump. On Monday, the Yankees won consecutive games for the first time since July 28-30 in a 4-2 victory over the Mets. I expect newly acquired pitcher Frankie Montas to get back to the form the Yankees traded for. I'm on the Yankees.
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Allie O'Neill
MLB | TORONTO @ BOSTON | 08/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -140
ANALYSIS: This season, Toronto is 10-3 against Boston. Ross Stripling has pitched well in all his games against the Red Sox, with the Jays going 2-1 in his starts. Josh Winckowski has a 5.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at Fenway. As Bollman mentioned, the Jays also have a significant advantage in the bullpen. Toronto swept the Red Sox last time in Boston, and I'll bet on that win streak to continue tonight.
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Matt Severance
MLB | TEXAS @ COLORADO | 08/23 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -115
ANALYSIS: The Rangers played a tight game Monday and had to travel, while the Rockies were off so that could have some bullpen ramifications -- as it is, Texas closer Joe Barlow is on the IL. Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning is 0-5 with 5.08 ERA on the road (home ERA is 3.21) and is winless in his past 25 games away. I guess you could argue he's due, but I'll take my chances. The season-long home splits for Colorado's German Marquez are a bit ugly, but he has been quite a bit better at Coors Field of late and historically is a lot better there. The Rox have won seven of the past nine in this series and four in a row at home.
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Bob Konarski
MLB | N.Y. METS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Since being acquired by the Yankees Frankie Montas has given up 14 runs in 14 innings pitched. In Taijuan Walker’s last outing against the Yankees, he gave up three earned runs, two of them being home runs in six innings. He's also been dealing with bulging disk in his back. The Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in the Bronx. Post all-star break, the Mets are third in batting average, .273, and OPS., .787. Take the Over.
MLB | CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE +115
ANALYSIS: Austin Voth is 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA over the last 30 days. He has the leagues fourth best bullpen behind him with a 3.16 ERA. Post all-star break, the Orioles are a top 10 team in OPS with a .735. The O’s take on Dylan Cease who has been incredible this season and only given up more than one earned run once in his last 15 starts. However, the White Sox bullpen is depleted after yesterday’s game and already in the bottom three team in the AL in terms of ERA with a 4.15. Play the Orioles to win.
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