Tuesday 8/24/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games
Martin Green
Ludogorets vs. Malmo (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Both teams to score -143 (one unit)
Ludogorets draw no bet -137 (half unit)
Ludogorets to win 2-1 +850 (half unit)
PSV Eindhoven vs. Benfica (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Both teams to score -137 (one unit)
Benfica +0.5 -125 (one unit)
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SportsLine Projection Model
Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-150)
The Mariners cover in 63 percent of simulations
Over-Under
Pick: Under 8.5
The model is projecting 7.7 total runs
Money Line
Pick: Athletics -153
The Athletics win in 63 percent of simulations
Projected final score: Athletics 4.2, Mariners 3.5
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both-to-score
EGYPT : Premier League
Wadi Degla – Ceramica Cleopatra
Both to score : YES @ 1.90
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teamronaldinho
UK : EFL Cup
Morecambe – Preston
Preston Over 1.5 @ 2.00
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james-martingale
CHILE: Primera B
Barnechea – Cobreloa
Second Half : Over 1.5 Goals
Odds : 2.40 / 1 units
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bet-my-ticket
Brentford – Forest Green : Over 2.5 @ 1.60
Shrewsbury – Rochdale : Over 1.5 @ 1.28
Total Odds : 2.04
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost again with the Rangers yesterday. The tailspin continues. Season record now 71-71.
Tuesday's play (30 units--yes, 30 units) is on the Diamondbacks.
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MLB Sharp Action
7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) at Philadelphia Phillies (63-61)
This 2008 World Series rematch features a pair of Interleague foes looking to solidify their postseason positioning. The Rays sit in first place atop the AL East but need to keep winning with the Yankees hot on their trail (only 4 games back). Meanwhile, the Phillies are 4.5-games back in the NL East and 5-games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot. In tonight's series opener, the Rays trot out righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 3.30 ERA) and the Phillies rebuttal with lefty Ranger Suarez (5-4, 1.47 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at roughly -105 odds. Respected money has pounced on the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up to a -115 road favorite. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 250-158 (61%) this season. Tampa Bay just beat the White Sox 9-0. Road favorites off a big win of 5-runs or more are 81-43 (65%). Short road favorites -150 or less off a win are 139-94 (60%). Tampa Bay is 2-0 against Philadelphia this season. Pros have also hit this under, jumping on the under 9.5 with the hook and steaming the total down to 9.
7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (43-81) at Cleveland Indians (61-61)
These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Rangers own the third worst record in MLB, ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Orioles. Texas is just 4-14 over their last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Indians just swept the Angels and are now 5-2 over their last seven games. Cleveland is eight games back of the second Wild Card spot in the AL. In tonight's series opener, Texas hands the ball to lefty Taylor Hearn (2-4, 3.97 ERA) and Cleveland counters with righty Eli Morgan (2-5, 5.80 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as a -150 home favorite and the Rangers a + 140 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Tribe, steaming Cleveland up from -150 to -165. Non-division home favorites are 404-252 (62%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites between -150 and -175 are 88-47 (65%), This is also a "schedule spot" advantage for Cleveland, who was off yesterday while the Rangers played (and lost 8-4) to the Red Sox. Rested favorites vs teams on a back-to-back are 58-35 (62%). Cleveland is 35-18 as a favorite this season. Texas is 34-69 as a dog. The Indians are 32-27 at home. The Rangers are 15-47 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (69-57) at Milwaukee Brewers (76-49)
Both of these NL Central rivals enter on hot streaks, having gone 7-3 over their last ten games. The first place Brewers just took two of three against the Nats while the Reds just swept the Marlins. Cincinnati trails Milwaukee by 7.5-games in the division but currently occupies the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, leading the Padres by one game. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati sends out righty Tyler Mahle (10-4, 3.78 ERA) and Milwaukee starts ace righty Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.13 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -175 home favorite and the Reds a + 160 road dog. The public is somewhat split on who to back, yet we've seen the Brewers shoot up from -175 to -185. This signals some wiseguy money backing the home favorite Brew Crew. Big home favorites -150 or more coming off a day off are 54-31 (64%) this season. Home favorites off a win are 431-274 (61%). We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game in this one. The total is 7.5 and the public says "easy over" with such a low total. However, the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending under (-115).
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JIMMY ADAMS
Game: (965) Los Angeles Angels at (966) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Aug 24 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Angels -125 Action
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XS Sports Picks Executive Top Play Program
Monday 1-1 -$200
August 31-16 (66%) +$8,120
MLB:
5 LA Angels -1.5 +110
4 Cincinnati +175
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XS Sports Picks Tuesday
MLB (Regular Picks):
4 Seattle +126
3 Philadelphia +104
3 NY Mets Under 8.5 -111
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The Prez
4% - Toronto Blue Jays, Action
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Jeff Hochman
CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/24 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -125
ANALYSIS: Toronto will start right-hander Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) on Tuesday. Obtained from the Twins last month, he has faced the White Sox three times this season, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. In 20 career starts against the White Sox, he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA. More importantly, Berrios is 3-0 with a 0.35 ERA at Rogers Center since 2018. He's holding hitters to a .191 batting average there.
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #978 Atlanta -135 (Morton)
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Elite Sports Picks
St. Louis (Flaherty) -1.5 runs -105 over Detroit (Mize)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Arizona (Bumgarner) -115 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
Range: +100 to -140
3* Cleveland (Morgan) -150 over Texas (Hearn)
Range: -135 to -175
3* Houston (Garcia) -1.5 runs -125 over Kansas City (Singer)
Range: -110 to -150
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National Sports Service
4* L.A. Angels (Bundy) -1.5 runs +100 over Baltimore (Watkins)
3* Tampa Bay (Rasmussen) -110 over Philadelphia (Suarez)
3* Atlanta (Morton) -150 over N.Y. Yankees (Heaney)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 08/24/21
4 Unit --> Houston (Garcia) -1.5 runs -125 over Kansas City (Singer)
3 Unit --> Tampa Bay (Rasmussen) -110 over Philadelphia (Suarez)
3 Unit --> N.Y. Mets (Megill) -115 over San Francisco (Long)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 08/24/21
4★ Arizona (Bumgarner) -115 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
3★ Washington (Fedde)/Miami (Luzardo) OVER 8.5
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IQ Sports
3* Tampa Bay -115 (975)
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Brian Bitler
10* Toronto Blue Jays -127 (Executive Order)
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Dr. Chuck
10* MLB Mistake
SF Giants +104 (Action)
The Mets are back home after a pretty big win over the champs in Chavez Ravine on Sunday....to salvage a win in the 4 game series finishing the road trip...before a day off and back to business in Citi Field Tuesday night. Sadly for Rojas et al....they invite in for a series...the best team (yes better than LAD) in the Majors!
Tylor Megill will take the mound for the hometown Mets and make his second consecutive start against these Giants...and while he fared ok....there are some glaring holes I am pumped to take advantage. His exit velocity against the Giants was at a season-high while his fly ball rate was at a season-low! The Giants will feature a healthy normal lineup and a VMI of OVER +6 for the game....while also knowing each and every single night...the West makes them HAVE to compete. Gabe Kapler has proven himself to be a fantastic manager and leader and they continue to just flat out be FOR REAL!
Long is being called up from AAA to make a spot start and coming from the left side he will make for a miserable opening for the Mets. Baez is back but Lindor is still out and only 2 teams have slashed worse than the Mets against LHP the past 10 days:
-8.4/.206/30 for 10 days against LHP for NYM
The Giants have equal rest and the bullpen will be ready as Long is unlikely to go more than 3-4 innings....and of course a la SF in 2021... in the past 7 days they have the best bullpen in the majors!
2.77 FIP/3.43 xFIP in the 27.2 innings since 8/16 and will wreak havoc with all the other factors....which finally include...the Mets 'pen
.172 BABIP & 83% LOB rate last 7 days screaming for regression against the best team in baseball!
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Pure Lock
10* Seattle Storm -3.5
10* Cincinnati Reds +175
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IC
WNBA -24.5u (31-32-2)
7 Unit Chi -6 vs ATL
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JM SPORTS
Game: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 24 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -116 M Bumgarner (LHP), J Brubaker (RHP) Must Start
3 unit Arizona Diamondbacks (-116) over Pittsburgh Pirates (Bumgarner/Brubaker) –
JT Brubaker may be the biggest key to this play, 4-13 on the year with a 5.49 ERA, but in the L15 games he is 1-11 with a 6.92 ERA, in the L7, 0-5 with a 9.09 ERA (allowing 33 ER in 32.2 IP), and in the last 3 games, his ERA is 12.86!! Brubaker is 2-8 @ NGT with a 5.69 ERA in 14 starts and since the All-Star Break, he has gone 0-4 with an 8.78 ERA in 6 starts. Playing behind Brubaker, Pittsburgh is, 3-16 in his L19 starts (including 1-15 when the line is > -120) and they have lost 8 straight games when Brubaker is matched-up vs. a LHP pitcher. Lefties have been a weakness for PIT TY, they are 1-12 vs. a LHP w/ ERA > 4.00 and the line is under 150, 2-13 in L15 as a D vs. LHP, they are 1-7 @ H vs. LHP and 1-10 in the L11 @ ARI. Arizona also has a stud on the mound in Bumgarner, even though he may be a few years removed from his prime, he hasn't allowed more then 2 runs in a start since June, and the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in his L6 starts.
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TRACE ADAMS
22nd Ever
2500♦ MLB Lock in 19 Years
The Pick: 2500♦ Winner on the Chicago White Sox (Cease) over the Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios).
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JAY MCNEIL
The Pick: 75 DIME play on the San Francisco Giants with Long over the New York Mets with Megill
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MITCHELL NEWMAN
50 DIME
Underdog Shocker
Selection: 50 Dime winner on the Cincinnati Reds (Mahle) over the Milwaukee Brewers (Burnes).
Price: At 7:30 am eastern time, the Reds are +160.
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steve merril mlb
over minnesota
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND | 08/24 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -145
ANALYSIS: The A’s have lost each of the last three games despite leading after seven innings. That's a first in team history where the A’s have led three straight entering the eighth and lost them all. The mini-slump has knocked Oakland out of the second wild-card spot in the AL so maybe some urgency here. The A's will get slugger Matt Chapman back after he missed Monday with a minor injury. Lefty pitcher Cole Irvin has a 3.13 and .236 opponents batting average over his last 10 starts. Seattle is last in MLB in batting average against lefties and third-from-last in OPS. M's starter Chris Flexen has a 4.92 road ERA (2.70 at home) and is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two career starts vs. Oakland.
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AL DEMARCO - GM
Top-Rated 15-Dime Release
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
The Pick: 15 Dimes - Brewers Run Line
The Line: Brewers +115 at -1 1/2 Runs at 5:05 am pacific
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CHRIS JORDAN
500♦
American League
Game of the Month
The Pick:500♦ Baltimore Orioles
The Line: At 8:40 am pacific, the number is Baltimore +110.
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KIRBY MAXWELL
40 Dime
Interleague
Game of the Month
PLAY: Philadelphia Phillies
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GUS AUGUSTINE
40 Dime
Interleague
Showdown of the Month
The Pick: 40 Dime New York Yankees
The Line: At 11:45 am eastern, the line is New York +125
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BobSportsBets
Miami ml
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BECCA'S PLAYS
Baltimore ml
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Tipstereando
Royals ml
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