Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 9/9/20

Stephen Oh

OVER 220.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DENVER | 9/09 | 9:00 PM EDT
4:26 PM
The Nuggets are the equals if not superior to the Clippers offensively led by Nikola Jokic, but Denver simply can't get the key defensive stops when needed because it doesn't have a stopper like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George or Patrick Beverley. The Over is 8-2 in the Nuggets' past 10 after a loss, and more than 70 percent of model simulations have Game 4 going Over the total on Wednesday.

44-17 IN LAST 61 NBA PICKS | +2528
8-4 IN LAST 12 DEN O/U PICKS | +357

TAMPA BAY -170
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 9/09 | 8:00 PM EDT
4:20 PM
Tampa Bay dominated the New York Islanders in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Final series on Monday, 8-2, for a fifth straight victory. Brayden Point had two goals and three assists as the Bolts scored at least twice in every period. They are simply the much more talented team, and nearly 65 percent of model simulations have Tampa taking a 2-0 lead Wednesday. The Isles are 4-13 in their past 17 as underdogs.

14-5 IN LAST 19 NHL ML PICKS | +735
7-2 IN LAST 9 TB ML PICKS | +450

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYI ML PICKS | +65
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newworldinsiders

NYC INSIDER: Yankees OV 10
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R.J. White

Super Bowl 55 Odds

Best value

New Orleans Saints (12-1):

This Saints team is built to win the title this season in what could be Drew Brees' last in football. With the future Hall-of-Famer back under center, the Saints feature the best offense in the NFC, one that was able to re-sign guard Andrus Peat to a long-term deal while also adding an excellent No. 2 receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. And if that wasn't enough, they reunited with safety Malcolm Jenkins to help overcome the loss of Vonn Bell and brought in multiple talented prospects via the draft to fortify their roster.

Even with Tom Brady joining the division, there's plenty to love about New Orleans, a team that finished second in the conference in Pythagorean wins (calculated by points scored and allowed) last year and came close to earning the No. 1 seed at 13-3. As a distant fourth in the championship odds, the Saints aren't getting nearly enough love.

Best longshots

Indianapolis Colts (25-1)

Despite the fact their franchise quarterback made the stunning decision to retire weeks before the 2019 season, the Colts shot out to a 5-2 start but ultimately petered out, finishing short of the playoffs due to injuries and several close losses. But the bones of this team are strong, with excellent talent on the offensive line and defensive front seven. Now coach Frank Reich has Philip Rivers to run his offense while the team also added a marquee player on the other side of the ball in defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

Even last year, the Colts were neck and neck with Houston in terms of Pythagorean wins, and though Tennessee leads the way in the statistic, you have to wonder if Ryan Tannehill's elite-level play can be repeated in 2020. If not, the Colts could be the AFC South team playing for a Super Bowl bid, and with their status as division favorites at 7-5, these title odds present a great value.

Denver Broncos (50-1)

I'm not ready to fully buy into Drew Lock, but he did a solid job in his five-game rookie season, with the team going 4-1 while he posted decent numbers. For the Broncos to make waves in January, he's going to need to take a big step forward in his development, and at these odds, I'm willing to take the gamble that he can.

The Broncos unquestionably did a great job of retooling their roster during free agency. They've upgraded the offensive line by bringing in Graham Glasgow to be the reliable pivot Lock needs. They traded for key defenders like Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye to replace outgoing talent while making sure Justin Simmons stayed in Denver via the franchise tag. They even threw in a bargain of a deal for Melvin Gordon, because why not? And they also added plenty of talent in the draft, starting with a top-tier receiving prospect in Jerry Jeudy. This looks like a team ready to take a leap and win a wild card, and if they do, 50-1 odds are going to look pretty fantastic.

Arizona Cardinals (60-1)

I almost included the Cardinals in my first version of this post, as I laid out in the Broncos section of that version. Then they went out and pulled off a heist that should have been impossible, to the extent I might petition Hollywood to give Arizona general manager Steve Keim the lead role in the next Mission:Impossible movie in place of Tom Cruise. The Cardinals added one of the best receivers in football (DeAndre Hopkins) to their offense and unloaded a contract (David Johnson) that should have been unmovable, all for virtually a second-round pick. Remember: A second-round pick is what a certain team that shall remain nameless spent to offload its own horrendous contract (Brock Osweiler) once upon a time.

But that's not the team we're talking about here. Kyler Murray could explode in his second year with the weapons surrounding him, especially if the Cardinals are able to keep Kenyan Drake from leaving via the transition tag. The defense made some underrated additions in the form of Devon Kennard, De'Vondre Campbell and Jordan Phillips. And they landed an impact defender early in the draft in Isaiah Simmons before upgrading the offensive line with the third-round value selection of Josh Jones. This looks like a team capable of making a playoff run in the wide-open NFC.

Teams to avoid

San Francisco 49ers (7-1)

I don't think the 49ers were a fluke by any means, and the stats back up their Super Bowl LIV run as they finished first in the NFC in Pythagorean wins by more than one full win. But they had to win several close games late in the season, particularly against their NFC West rivals. Can they repeat in what figures to be the strongest division, top to bottom, in the NFL in 2020? With the fourth-toughest schedule in the league, taking the 49ers as a favorite to win the title doesn't make much sense from a value perspective.

Dallas Cowboys (12-1)

Keeping Amari Cooper was a boon for the Cowboys, but I'm worried about the talent that did escape via free agency. While there's nothing wrong with Dallas' offense, I'm not sure Gerald McCoy and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are significant upgrades from the players they're replacing, and neither addresses the key loss of Byron Jones from the secondary. This still is a good team, but not one that deserves to have the third-lowest odds (6-1) to come out of the NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-1)

Of course, the team that's now tied with the Cowboys is overvalued as well. The Buccaneers made the biggest splash - maybe ever - during free agency by signing Tom Brady, but the quarterback who took the field for New England last year isn't the same guy who dominated the league for two decades as he finished 2019 with career lows - or close to them - in completion percentage, yards per attempt and percentage of passes to go for a touchdown. With plenty of other issues on the roster to address and a tough championship contender ahead of them in the division, the Bucs should be behind Seattle, Philadelphia and Green Bay, at the very least, instead of their current position.
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Elite Sports Picks

Chicago Cubs (Darvish) -150 over Cincinnati (Bauer)
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Big AL

Boston / Toronto Under
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Insider Sports Report

4* Colorado (Senzatela)/San Diego (Davies) UNDER 8.5
Range: 9 to 10

3* N.Y. Yankees (Garcia) -130 over Toronto (Roark)
Range: -115 to -155

3* L.A. Clippers/Denver UNDER 220 (NBA)
Range: 222 to 218
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National Sports Service

4* Chicago Cubs (Darvish) -150 over Cincinnati (Bauer)

3* Milwaukee (Burnes)/Detroit (Boyd) UNDER 8.5

3* Boston -3 over Toronto (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks For 09/09/20

4 Unit --> Milwaukee (Burnes) -140 over Detroit (Boyd)

3 Unit --> Cleveland (Carrasco) -1.5 runs -105 over Kansas City (Duffy)

3 Unit --> Denver +7.5 over Denver (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 09/09/20

4★ N.Y. Yankees (Garcia) -130 over Toronto (Roark)

3★ Milwaukee (Burnes)/Detroit (Boyd) UNDER 8.5

3★ Toronto/Boston UNDER 210.5 (NBA)
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The Winners Circle --
Wednesday Plays -- Sports Bankroll ($4915) -- Yesterday (+5)

MLB Baseball -- Playing all games straight $100/each

Play Atlanta -135 over Miami
Play New York Yankees -140 over Toronto

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NBA Basketball -- Playing all games straight $100/each

Play Boston -3.5 over Toronto
Play Denver +8 over Los Angeles Clippers

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NHL Hockey -- Playing all games straight $100/each

Play Tampa Bay -165 over New York Islanders
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SDQL

OAKLAND -172
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 9/09 | 9:10 PM EDT
10:02 AM
The Athletics are 15-0 as 140-plus home favorites following a game in which they did not score after the third inning. Oakland has won these 15 games by an average of exactly five runs. Houston is 0-11 as a road underdog before game 110 after it had more strikeouts than hits. We make the Athletics the play.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ML PICKS | +189

3-1 IN LAST 4 OAK ML PICKS | +160

CHI. WHITE SOX -177
CHI. WHITE SOX @ PITTSBURGH | 9/09 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:54 AM
Chicago is a reliable 12-0 as a favorite in the last game of a series when it is coming off a loss in which it had more than three hits, but more strikeouts than hits. Pittsburgh is 0-17 as an underdog of more than 160 following a game in which it struck out its opponent 10-plus times and its starter has averaged at least three strikeouts per game. The White Sox get the victory.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
10-1 IN LAST 11 CHW ML PICKS | +855

CHI. CUBS -153
CINCINNATI @ CHI. CUBS | 9/09 | 8:15 PM EDT
9:50 AM
Since the start of the 2018 season, the Reds are 0-9 before game 130 as a road underdog after being shut out on the road, getting outscored by an average of 3.56 runs. In their two games in this spot this season, they scored a total of two runs. The Cubs have shown no mercy in this spot, as they are 9-0 as a 120-plus home favorite against a team that has lost at least it last two games. We are on Chicago.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
9-3 IN LAST 12 CHC ML PICKS | +474

L.A. DODGERS -290
L.A. DODGERS @ ARIZONA | 9/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
9:48 AM
The Dodgers have crushed souls in this spot. Los Angeles is 12-0 as a 150-plus road favorite over a team that has a worse record when it is not a series opener. The Dodgers are 7-0 in this spot this season, winning every game by multiple runs, and have trailed for a total of one inning in that span. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 0-11 when it is not the first game of a series and they are facing a team that has a better record. The Dodgers roll.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
10-4 IN LAST 14 LAD ML PICKS | +260

2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +79

SAN FRANCISCO -145
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/09 | 9:45 PM EDT
9:44 AM
The Mariners are 0-8 on the road following an away contest in which they did not score after the third inning, getting beaten by an average of 6.25 runs. The Giants are 10-0 as a favorite in the finale of a series after a game in which they hit multiple home runs, including two multi-run wins this season. San Francisco turns the screw.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS | +300

3-1 IN LAST 4 SEA ML PICKS | +60

SAN DIEGO -180
COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO | 9/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:37 AM
The Padres are 8-0 at home after a game in which Manny Machado had multiple hits and 7-0 as a favorite after they struck out their opponent at least 10 times, winning by an average of 5.14 runs. San Diego is rolling and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela has pressed in this spot. The Rockies are 0-10 with Senzatela when visiting a team that has won at least three straight, getting beaten by an average of 4.60 runs. We are laying the price.

63-35-1 IN LAST 99 MLB PICKS | +602
3-1 IN LAST 4 COL ML PICKS | +143
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Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
9:37 AM

DETROIT +1.5
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 9/09 | 1:10 PM EDT
This is the only matinee of Wednesday, and getaway day games hugely favor the home team, regardless of whether fans are in the stands. On the surface, the season numbers for Tigers pitcher Matt Boyd (1-5, 6.64) are ugly, but he has allowed just five earned runs over his past three outings. The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost three in a row overall and seven of their past eight away. Detroit could well win this outright, but we will take it as a short -120 favorite on the runline to be safe.
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Brian Bitler

10* MLB Executive Info Winner

Cubs w/ Darvish
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Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
10:59 AM

BOSTON -3.5
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 9/09 | 6:30 PM EDT
The Celtics took back control of this series with a lopsided win in Game 5. They are 7-2 ATS versus the Raptors this season and will look to eliminate them Wednesday and avoid a Game 7. The big news for the Raptors is the status of Serge Ibaka (ankle), who is listed as questionable. If he can’t play, it would be a huge loss for their second unit. Even if he does take the floor, he could be limited.

126-75-3 IN LAST 204 NBA ATS PICKS | +4350
16-5 IN LAST 21 TOR ATS PICKS | +1051

6-2-1 IN LAST 9 BOS ATS PICKS | +378
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Accu Picks

NBA
3* Boston -3.5
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Bill Marzano

DENVER +8
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DENVER | 9/09 | 9:00 PM EDT
10:59 AM
The Nuggets had plenty of chances to get the edge in Game 3 but couldn't convert down the stretch. Jamal Murray is struggling, and if he can get going, the Nuggets have a chance to stun the Clippers. Nikolai Jokic is playing great and he is a matchup problem for Los Angeles. The Nuggets are making the Clippers work hard on both ends of the floor. Denver must do a better job of guarding Paul George to win this game. The Clippers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference semifinals games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference semifinals games.

9-3 IN LAST 12 NBA PICKS | +560
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC ATS PICKS | +90

BOSTON -165
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 9/09 | 6:30 PM EDT
10:23 AM
The Celtics surely don't want to go to a seventh game. Look for Boston to wrap this series up. The Raptors fought back from 0-2 but just don't have enough consistency from their big three. To make matters worse, Serge Ibaka is listed as questionable, as he was in a walking boot. Boston will come out very aggressively and the play of Marcus Smart has been a huge factor in this series. The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference semifinals games.

9-3 IN LAST 12 NBA PICKS | +560
3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS | +153

2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +51

TAMPA BAY -170
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 9/09 | 8:00 PM EDT
9:40 AM
The Lightning didn't waste any time taking advantage of a tired Islanders team in an 8-2 Game 1 beatdown, setting the tone for this series. Tampa Bay has won 13 of the last 17 meetings. The Lightning are well-rested and several days off seemed to energize them. Tampa Bay has won five straight games, outscoring the opposition 25-9 in the process. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been elevating his levels of performance. The Islanders are 4-13 in their last 17 games as an underdog and 3-12 in their last 15 Wednesday games.

22-13 IN LAST 35 NHL ML PICKS | +536
9-2 IN LAST 11 TB ML PICKS | +629

6-4 IN LAST 10 NYI ML PICKS | +113

KANSAS CITY -9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:24 AM
Kansas City has a great chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs with Patrick Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs return nearly their entire roster and added a great RB in the draft. With no preseason games, you have to be looking at players and coaching staffs that have experience working together, and injuries. The Chiefs came back last year to destroy the Texans and now Houston is without DeAndre Hopkins. It could be another long night for the Texans and their defense. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night games. Kansas City is 7-0-1 in its last eight games as home favorite. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 September games.
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SDQL

NFL

NFL Week 1 betting system that cashes at a 75 percent clip. It's not a small sample size, either, as this system is 36-12 since the database was created in 2002.

The betting system applies to a whopping SIX games on the NFL Week 1 slate. Moreover, a related system that's gone a perfect 10-0 ATS applies to two of those six games. Read on to get both NFL Week 1 betting systems.

Here's the analysis from the SDQL Gurus:

In general, finding profitable betting opportunities involves uncovering differences in the public's perception of the strength and motivation of a team and the actual strength and motivation of that team.

Let's apply this general handicapping philosophy to Week 1 of the NFL. Our focus will be on divisional contests in which one team made the playoffs the previous season and the other did not. Certainly, we can expect the public to believe the team that made the playoffs is better than the team that did not make the playoffs.

Indeed, in Week 1 divisional contests between a playoff team and a non-playoff team from the previous season, the team that made the playoffs was laying an average of 3.6 points since the start of the 2002 season (as far back as our database goes).

Now let's consider motivation. A team that did not make the playoffs is supremely motivated to make a good showing in Week 1 -- especially vs. a divisional foe that made the playoffs. Similarly, a team that made the playoffs the previous season is less likely to be at their peak against a team that did not make the playoffs the previous season. Checking the actual results with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) reveals that:

In week one, a team that did NOT make the playoffs the previous season is 36-12 ATS since the start of the database at KillerSports.com (2002) vs. a divisional opponent that DID make the playoffs the previous season.

Moreover, these non-playoff teams are 24-23-1 straight up vs playoff teams!

This 75% system has had at least one active date each season over the past 18 years and it has never been under .500 in any season. Here is a link to the query output file for this system at KillerSports.com.

It is important to note that this is a Week 1 ONLY system. After Week 1, teams that did not make the playoffs have done poorly vs. a divisional opponent that did make the playoffs. In fact, these teams are at or below .500 ATS in every one of the weeks from 2 through 10. The motivation is primarily to start the season with a supreme effort. After that, reality sets in for the team that did not make the playoffs and the bettors have actual results from the current season to judge the quality of a team.

Over the last 18 seasons, This Week 1 system has never been active more than four times in any season. This season we get SIX opportunities to play this system. Here they are:

Jets +6 vs BILLS

Cardinals +7.5 vs 49ERS

Dolphins +6.5 vs PATRIOTS

Browns +9 at RAVENS

WASHINGTON +6.5 vs Eagles

Buccaneers +4 vs SAINTS

In each case, the Play-ON team is given first and the home team is in capital letters. These qualifying teams are getting a LOT of points. They will be motivated to start the season strong.

As always, a complete job of handicapping should be performed before making any play. This includes a careful consideration of the personnel and coaching changes a team has made from the previous season. That said, a six-team parlay would not be the worst bet ever made.

BONUS SECTION: We can "fine-tune" this system by furthering the idea that the playoff team from the previous season is not at its peak early in the season by adding the requirement that their next opponent is one that they beat by double digits the previous season. Doing so produces a 10-0 ATS record in database history.

This season, two of the six games qualify. The Jets are visiting the Bills. The Jets did not make the playoffs last season and the Bills did. Further, Buffalo has the Dolphins in Week 2 this season – a team the Bills beat 37-20 in their previous match-up. The second qualifying team for this tweak is the Browns. The Browns did not make the playoffs last season and the Ravens did. Further, Baltimore has the Texans in Week 2 this season – a team the Ravens beat 41-7 last season.
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Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
Western Conference Game #4 - Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets
The Play - Los Angeles Clippers -8 (Best Bet)
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Vince Akins (VegasInsider)
MLB
San Francisco Giants -138
Los Angeles Angels -112
San Diego Padres -169
San Francisco Giants/Seattle Mariners Under 9
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Kevin Davis (VegasInsider - MLB)
Detroit Tigers +150
Cincinnati Reds +145
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Ben Burns (VegasInsider - NBA) - Raptors/Celtics Over 209
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Raphael Esparza

WNBA GOY

Over 162.5 Dallas vs Seattle
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Big al

Total of year

Toronto under 210.5
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Ben Burns

Milwuakee

10* Atlanta

Mets
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