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Cotton Bowl: Mississippi vs. Texas Tech

The Mississippi Rebels won't get as much press and public betting as their opponent in this year's Cotton Bowl. But beware Ole Miss as they battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders January 2.
While the Red Raiders were highly ranked and their offense highly feared, the Rebels were quietly beating Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida. Not bad for a team sitting as a TD underdog.

Oddsmakers currently have the Red Raiders listed as 4-point favorites versus the Rebels, while the game's total is sitting at 65½.

Mississippi blanked Mississippi State 45-0 as an 18-point favorite last time out. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).

Jevan Snead passed for 214 yards with four touchdowns for the Rebels, while Mike Wallace caught four passes for 105 and two touchdowns in the win.

Texas Tech scored 21 unanswered points in the second half to beat Baylor 35-28 in Week 14.

The Red Raiders did not cover the 22.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 70.

Team records:
Mississippi: 8-4 SU, 8-3 ATS
Texas Tech: 11-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS

Mississippi most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 7-3

Texas Tech most recently:
When playing in January are 1-1
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 10-0

A few trends to consider:
Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 6 games
Mississippi is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas Tech is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 8 games

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. Kentucky

Kentucky lost six of its final eight games, but still earned a bowl berth. God bless the bowl system for finding place for a team that lost 63-5 against Florida.
The fans at the Liberty Bowl will watch the East Carolina Pirates and the Kentucky Wildcats clash January 2.

Oddsmakers currently have the Pirates listed as 3-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

Ben Hartman's 36-yard field goal with 1:43 remaining gave East Carolina a 27-24 upset win over Tulsa in Week 15.

The Pirates covered the 12.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 66.

Kentucky was crushed 28-10 by Tennessee in Week 14 as a 4-point road underdog. The combined 38 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 38.

Alfonso Smith ran for the only touchdown in the loss.

Team records:
East Carolina: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS
Kentucky: 6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS

East Carolina most recently:
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 4-6
After playing Tulsa are 3-0

Kentucky most recently:
When playing in January are 0-1
When playing on turf are 4-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 10-0

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of East Carolina's last 7 games
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
East Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

Sugar Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama

Alabama spent a good chunk of the season ranked No. 1 in the country, but lost when it mattered most in the SEC title game. That loss sent the Crimson Tide to the Louisiana Superdome for the Sugar Bowl where they will face the tough Utah Utes.
It's No. 4 Bama against unbeaten No. 7 Utah.

Oddsmakers currently have the Crimson Tide listed as 9-point favorites versus the Utes, while the game's total is sitting at 45½.

Brian Johnson threw four touchdown passes and Utah scored three TDs in the fourth quarter to earn a 48-24 win over BYU in Week 13. Utah covered the 7-point spread, and the 72 points sailed OVER the posted total of 55.

Johnson completed 30-of-36 for 302 yards, and Brent Casteel caught two TD passes in the win.

Alabama suffered its only regular-season loss in Week 15, as they fell 31-20 to Florida. Alabama was listed by sportsbooks as a 10-point underdog in that game, while the 51 points went UNDER the posted total of 54.5.

Glen Coffee ran for 110 yards off 21 carries with a TD in the first loss of the season for Alabama.

Team records:
Utah: 12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS
Alabama: 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS

Utah most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on turf are 10-0
After being outgained are 8-2
When an underdog on the road are 5-5

Alabama most recently:
When playing in January are 2-1
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When favored at home are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
Alabama is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Alabama's last 8 games
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 7:14 pm
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OLE MISS (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS TECH (11 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

E CAROLINA (9 - 4) vs. KENTUCKY (6 - 6)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

UTAH (12 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (12 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTAH is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ALABAMA is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Cotton Bowl

Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

Ole Miss
16-5 ATS after 1st month of season
5-1 ATS in bowl games

Texas Tech
0-6 ATS Away off home conference win
6-0 Over off conference win


Liberty Bowl

East Carolina vs. Kentucky

East Carolina:
9-0 ATS Away if TO margin was +3 or better last game
15-5 Under 2nd half of season

Kentucky
14-3 Under off BB conference losses
13-4 Under playing with 2+ weeks of rest

Sugar Bowl

Utah vs. Alabama

Utah
40-19 ATS as an underdog
23-9 ATS playing with 2+ weeks rest

Alabama
17-36 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
22-7 Under as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points

MISSISSIPPI vs. TEXAS TECH
Mississippi is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas Tech is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 8 games

EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY
East Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

UTAH vs. ALABAMA
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Alabama is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 7:17 pm
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Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brad Young

**Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech**

-Caesars Palace installed Texas Tech as a four-point ‘chalk’ over Ole Miss, with the total set at 66½. FOX Sports will provide coverage of the Cotton Bowl beginning Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

-Mississippi (8-4 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) enters this matchup riding a five-game SU winning streak while winning its last four ATS. The Rebels wrapped up the regular season by routing rival Mississippi State November 28 as an 18 ½-point home favorite, 45-0. The 45 points went below the 47 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the past four games with a total listed.

-Ole Miss put the game away early with 24 points in the first quarter. The Rebels dominated the Bulldogs in first downs (22-8), rushing yards (220- -51), passing yards (241-88), and time of possession (32:50-27:10). Quarterback Jevan Snead was 14-of-19 passing for 213 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.

-Texas Tech (11-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from its thrashing by Oklahoma to hold off Baylor Nov. 29 as a 22 1/2-point home ‘chalk,’ 35-28. There was no total on that contest.

-The Red Raiders led the Bears in first downs (24-19), passing yards (309-91) and time of possession (31:41-28:19). Signal caller Graham Harrell completed 41-of-50 passes for 309 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

-This marks the last time the Cotton Bowl will be played at the Cotton Bowl, moving next season to the Dallas Cowboys new $1.1 billion-dollar stadium.

-Ole Miss kicker Justin Sparks (mononucleosis) and fullback Jason Cook (knee) are ‘questionable’ against the Red Raiders, while offensive guard Maurice Miller (academics) and linebacker Ashlee Palmer (academics) are ‘probable.’

-Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell (hand) is ‘probable’ versus the Rebels, while cornerback Pete Richardson (disciplinary) has been dismissed from the team.

-Friday’s forecast for Dallas, Texas calls for mostly sunny skies, with a high of 72 degrees and a low of 59. There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the evening, with winds around 9-13 mph.

**East Carolina vs. Kentucky**

-Caesars Palace opened East Carolina as a three-point favorite over Kentucky, with the total set at 41. ESPN starts its coverage of the Liberty Bowl at 5:00 p.m. ET.

-East Carolina (9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS) enters this matchup winning its last three games SU and previous two outings ATS. The Pirates slipped past Tulsa December 6 as a 12 ½-point road underdog, 27-24. The combined 51 points went ‘under’ the 65-point closing total.

-East Carolina trailed in most of the game stats, but prevailed after dominating the turnover battle (7-1). Quarterback Patrick Pinkney completed 10-of-24 passes for 122 yards with a touchdown, while Norman Whitley had 14 carries for 104 yards with a score.

-Kentucky (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) has dropped its last three games SU and past two matchups ATS after losing to Tennessee Nov. 29 as a four-point road underdog, 28-10. The combined 38 points landed directly on the closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings.

-Quarterback Mike Hartline filled in for an injured Randall Cobb and completed 5-of-7 passes for 74 yards. Running back Tony Dixon paced the ground game with 15 carries for 48 yards.

-Kentucky is trying for its first three-game bowl victory streak in school history.

-Kentucky quarterback Randall Cobb (knee) is ‘doubtful’ versus the Pirates, while wide receiver DeMoreo Ford (concussion) is ‘out.’

-East Carolina defensive lineman Khalif Mitchell (toe) and defensive lineman Marcus Hands (back) are ‘questionable’ against the Wildcats.

-Friday’s forecast for Memphis, Tennessee calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of57 degrees and a low of 46.

vegasinsider.com.

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 8:47 pm
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Cotton Bowl - Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
by Dennis Macklin

This year’s Cotton Bowl features one of the more intriguing matchups of the Bowl season as Air Leach’s offensive juggernaut meets Houston Nutt’s resurgent Rebels. There are any number of side stories involving this game, none more important as far as we’re concerned than the health of Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell.

Harrell suffered nine breaks to the pinkie and ring finger of his non-throwing hand in Tech’s 35-28 season finale win over Baylor. Harrell had surgery to repair the injury on December 1st that required 17 pins and two plates.

Harrell suffered the first-half injury by either hitting the hand on a helmet or catching the fingers in an opponent’s face mask. Harrell finished the game with 309 yards and two touchdowns leading the Red Raiders back from 21 points down making the performance all the more amazing.

Texas Tech was an offensive machine behind Harrell (71.5%, 4747, 41-7) who finished fourth in the Heisman voting. Six wideouts had 30 catches or more led by All-World Michael Crabtree (93, 12.2, 1135, 18 TDs), a probable top five draft pick. The Red Raiders also have two capable running backs in Baron Batch (743, 6.7, 7 TDs) and Shannon Woods (670, 5.0, 12 TDs) who also had 31 catches out of the backfield. The 2008 Red Raiders defense was the best of Leach’s tenure but will be remembered for the 65 bomb dropped on them by Oklahoma.

What can you say about the job Houston Nutt did with Ole Miss? The cupboard wasn’t bare by any means when Nutt arrived but the ex-Razorback coach lost three-fifths of a pretty good offensive line to injury before Game One making the 3-9 to 8-4 (including upset of top ranked Florida) transformation amazing in its own right.

The Rebels offense is led by Texas transfer Jevan Sneed, who was going nowhere backing up Colt McCoy. Sneed (55%, 2420, 23-12) showed steady improvement through the year in his first chance as a starter and will only get better in his two remaining years. Dexter McCluster (558, 5.9, 5 TDs – 38, 542, 14.3) is a duel threat out of the backfield. Mike Wallace (704, 20.1, 6 TDs) is the best of WRs. Maybe the biggest surprise for the Rebels was the defense that allowed just 295 YPG, only 86 of those overland.

Without knowing the actual condition of Harrell, this is a tough game to call. Tech is off two miracle Bowl wins that saw them come from 14 down last year and 31 down two years ago in the infamous Insight Bowl miracle vs. Minnesota. This is first Bowl for Ole Miss since 2003 and their lynchpin is not all that experienced. This number is VERY high and assumes that Harrell won’t miss a beat. If anything, I might take a flyer on the under. Good luck to all and wish you all a happy, healthy, and successful 2009.

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 8:49 pm
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Liberty Bowl - East Carolina vs. Kentucky
by Jimmy The Moose

On Friday, January 2nd in Memphis, TN the East Carolina Pirates will be taking on the Kentucky Wildcats in this year's Liberty Bowl. The Pirates come into this game with a 9-4 SU record while the Wildcats weren't very good this season and bring in their 6-6 SU record into this one. The Pirates nine wins this season are their highest win total since 1999. The Wildcats suffered injuries to their leading WR and RB and that's what hurt their chances of playing in a better Bowl Game. The Pirates are three-point favorites in this one and the total is set at 41.5 points.

The Pirates are 9-4 SU but have been disappointing at the window posting a 5-8 ATS record. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 games down the stretch SU, but went 3-4 ATS. They averaged 23.8 PPG and the D allowed 20.8 points per contest. Away from home the Pirates were 4-3 SU, but a horrible 1-6 ATS. East Carolina's head coach, Skip Holtz was being considered for the Syracuse job but he pulled his name from consideration to focus on this game, so expect the Pirates to be ready.

The Wildcats opened the season with four straight wins but down the stretch they faded and that's why they are playing in this game. Injuries to key players hurt this club but a win in this one would help overcome the disappointment. Kentucky went 5-6 ATS this season. The Wildcats averaged 22.4 PPG while the D allowed 21.7 points per contest. Down the stretch the Wildcats lost 5 of their last 7 games.

East Carolina is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. In their last 9 games as a favorite the Pirates are 2-7 at the window. Kentucky is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are the healthier team coming into this one and that may be the difference in the Liberty Bowl.

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 8:50 pm
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Sugar Bowl - Utah vs. Alabama
by Scott Rickenbach

This year's Sugar Bowl is going to be sweet as underdog Utah tries to upset Alabama (-11). This game takes place on January 2nd and is being played in New Orleans.

Utah (12-0) earned its second BCS bid in five years with its run to the Mountain West Conference championship. It overwhelmed Pittsburgh 35-7 in the Fiesta Bowl in 2005 but will be a huge underdog against Alabama (12-1), which was the top-ranked team in the country before falling in the SEC title game against Florida. The Gators rallied with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter for a 31-20 victory.

The Utes, whose season started in Ann Arbor, Mich., on Aug. 30, had a wild ride that included comeback wins against Oregon State and TCU, nail-biting victories over Air Force and New Mexico and a satisfying 48-24 victory over rival Brigham Young.

The problem for Alabama is that there is nothing to be gained by playing Utah. If Alabama wins, they were supposed to. Remember last year's Sugar Bowl game, when Georgia pasted non-BCS invitee Hawaii, 41-10? If the Tide loses, it will be remembered in bowl infamy alongside Oklahoma, which suffered a 2007 Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State.

Here are some very important "ATS" stats to mull before pulling the trigger on this contest:

Utah is 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game and 5-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. It is also 6-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, however over the last 3 seasons its struggled in this spot, going 1-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 12 points.

Alabama is 3-1 ATS this season in non-conference games and 5-3 ATS after playing a conference game. It went 7-3 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 11 points! However over the last 3 seasons it is a sub-par 3-6 ATS off a conference loss.

So will there be a big upset on the 2nd or will Alabama step up and take care of business? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure, this will be an interesting game to watch. Enjoy!

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 8:50 pm
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What bettors need to know: Cotton Bowl
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ

Mississippi vs. Texas Tech (-4.5, 69.5)

ATS

Ole Miss comes in 8-4 ATS with covers in its last four. Despite an 11-1 SU record, Texas Tech is only 6-6 ATS and it failed to cover in its last two.

Miss coach Houston Nutt was 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in bowls during his tenure at Arkansas. Mike Leach is 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS while bowling at Texas Tech.

Giant Killer

Nutt has garnered a well-deserved reputation for pulling upsets over higher-ranked teams. Nutt is 15-8 ATS against top 10 teams with six outright wins.

His 2008 Rebels are 4-0 ATS as dogs with outright wins over Florida and LSU, both on the road.

High-Tech Weaponry

The pyrotechnics of the Red Raider offense have been well-documented. QB Graham Harrell, Heisman snub not withstanding, has been outstanding and WR Michael Crabtree is the best in the nation at his position. The diversity of talented players among the Tech receiving corps will certainly challenge an Ole Miss secondary not known for its depth.

A key for the team has been the ability to strike balance with the running game, something that’s been lacking in previous seasons under mastermind Leach.

It all adds up to an offense that averages 45 points and 536 yards per game.

Crabtree sprained an ankle in the season finale against Baylor. Despite wearing a medical boot since, it is expected that he will be ready to go on game day.

Balanced Rebel Offense

Ole Miss may not have the gaudy numbers of its opponents, but the team has developed into a top-notch offense with excellent balance. The Rebels have no big names, but they have solid weapons at RB and WR to spread the ball around. QB Jevan Snead, a major recruit who transferred from Texas, has blossomed over the course of the season. After struggling with decision-making early on, Snead has excelled with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio over the course of the team’s current five-game winning streak.

Snead operates behind a superb offensive line, anchored by Outland Trophy finalist Michael Oher, a likely top 10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

The Rebels finished up third in the SEC in rushing, fourth in passing, with an overall output of 31 points per game.

In the Trenches

A major key to the game will be whether the Mississippi defensive line can get pressure on Graham Harrell. The strength of the Rebel defense is clearly in the d-line and it’s likely that, if given time to throw, Harrell will pick apart the Ole Miss secondary.

Much has been made of the fact that the Tech offensive line excels in pass protection. While they did allow only 11 sacks on the season, eight of those came in the final five games when the quality of competition improved. Against the only frontline defenses they faced, the Raiders allowed three sacks versus Texas and two versus Oklahoma. They gave up three more in the season finale against Baylor. Mississippi has first-rate talent and stands a decent chance to disrupt Harrell’s rhythm.

On the Surface

The Cotton Bowl’s Bermuda Tifway Sod grass can only help Ole Miss against the speedy Tech offense that thrives on turf.

While both teams play on turf on their home fields, Mississippi’s game translates much better to grass. The Rebels are 3-1 ATS on grass this season while Tech is 0-4.

Motivation

Considering that none of the Rebels have ever played in a bowl game, and that few if any expected them to be here when the season began, there’s no doubt that they’ll be wide-eyed and pumped up on game day.

But what about Tech? Some question whether the disappointment of blowing its chance at the national title and its matchup against the not-so-glamorous Rebels might cause them to come out flat.

Don’t count on it. Harrell’s snub by the Heisman committee should have him plenty motivated. The team also has 17 seniors who’ll be playing their last game. Many of the Raiders, including Harrell and Crabtree, played high school ball in Dallas and will be looking to make a statement in their home town.

Line Moves

Tech opened as a 6.5-point favorite and the line has inched its way downward to 6, 5.5, and then to the current number of 4.5

The over/under opened at 70.5 and recently moved down a point to 69.5.

 
Posted : January 1, 2009 8:51 pm
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What bettors need to know: Liberty Bowl
By Steve Merril

East Carolina Pirates vs. Kentucky Wildcats (+3, 41.5)

Line movement

East Carolina opened as a 1-point favorite on December 8 and within minutes the early money pushed the line up to -3. Some money came back in on Kentucky last week and the line briefly dropped back down to -2½, but has since risen back to -3 across the board.

The total opened at 43 points and was instantly bet down to 41 points which is a critical number as nearly 3 percent of all games land exactly on this key number. The total has risen back up to 41.5 in some locations.

Weather

The weather forecast is calling for clear conditions on Friday afternoon in Memphis, Tennessee. The temperature will be 50-degrees at kickoff with only a 10% chance of rain and no wind.

Opposite directions

These two teams enter the Liberty Bowl coming from opposite directions as East Carolina was red-hot down the stretch while Kentucky finished the season ice-cold.

East Carolina started the season with back-to-back home underdog wins when it upset Virginia Tech as an 8.5-point underdog and then upset West Virginia as a 7.5-point dog. East Carolina then went on a 0-4 ATS run as they suffered some key injuries on defense including the loss of star linebacker Quentin Cotton for the season.

The Pirates stood just 3-3 SU in mid-October but finished with a strong 6-1 SU record in their final seven games. Overall, East Carolina stands 9-4 SU this season including an impressive 27-24 win in the Conference USA championship game as a 12-point underdog versus Tulsa.

Kentucky also began its season with an outright underdog win as it upset Louisville on the road 27-2 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Wildcats stood 4-0 SU in non-conference games this season but they struggled in SEC play and finished the year on a 2-6 SU slide.

Defense first

Both teams have struggled on offense. The Pirates average just 23.8 points per game and only 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 26.8 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Kentucky averages just 22.4 points per game and only 4.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 23.7 ppg and 5.1 yppl).

East Carolina is strong on defense, allowing just 20.8 points per game and only 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 26.3 ppg and 5.5 yppl). Kentucky is also a solid defensive team, allowing 21.7 points per game and 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average 22.7 ppg and 5.1 yppl).

History

These teams last met on November 13, 1993 and Kentucky won an ugly 6-3 game as an 18-point home favorite.

Skip Holtz is making his third bowl appearance as head coach of East Carolina and he stands 1-1 SU/ATS including an outright 41-38 win in the Hawaii Bowl last year as a 10-point underdog versus Boise State.

Rich Brooks is now in his sixth season as head coach of Kentucky and he is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in his two bowl appearances, both of which were straight-up wins in the Music City Bowl the past two years.

 
Posted : January 2, 2009 12:53 am
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What bettors need to know: Sugar Bowl
By JASON LOGAN

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Utah Utes (+9, 46)

Line movement

The original spread was posted as high as 11.5 at some sportsbooks. This number has been bet down over the past month to its current standing of nine points in favor of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The total has moved slightly from its opening number of 45 points to 46 and 46.5 points, depending on the sportsbook. Alabama finished the regular season with a 4-9 over/under record while the Utah Utes wrapped with a 9-2 over/under mark.

Injury report

The Crimson Tide will be without All-American offensive tackle Andre Smith Friday. The program suspended the NFL prospect Monday for violating team rules which later were reported as dealings with an agent. The NCAA prohibits athletes from having contact with agents.

Alabama's third-string running back Roy Upchurch will not play in the Sugar Bowl as well. He underwent neck surgery before Christmas after struggling through the final four games of the regular season. The junior did not play in the SEC Championship and finished with 350 total rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Andre the giant loss

The suspension of Smith leaves many questions for the Crimson Tide's rushing attack. Alabama's bread-and-butter with the football is its run game which averaged over 196 yards per Saturday this season. Most of those gains came on Smith's side of the line where he cleared the road for running backs Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram, who combined for 22 touchdowns on the ground.

Smith's absence leaves Utah defensive end Paul Kruger unmatched in the trenches. His battle with Bama's top lineman was supposed to be the game within the game for the Sugar Bowl.

“It was a big challenge, but we were really looking forward to it," Kruger told the Tuscaloosa News. “We're a little bit on the small side, but I think we've got some tough guys, guys that are real quick and agile, and it was going to be a good matchup.

“I was looking forward to the matchup. It's disappointing.”

Now, the speedy sophomore will find it easier to add to his season total of 15.5 tackles for a loss. Kruger will also have a clearer shot of Tide quarterback John Parker Wilson. Smith gave up just one of the 17 sacks allowed by Alabama this season and Kruger was third in the MWC with 7.5 quarterback kills.

Utah boasts the 18th ranked rush defense in the land after allowing just over 107 yards on the ground per game this season. It did, however, allow more than 200 yards rushing to the BYU Cougars in its final game of the schedule. Kruger picked up six tackles, broke up two passes and picked off a pass for a 30-yard return in that contest.

Ready for anything

Ever since the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, BCS conference teams facing non-BCS programs have feared the unexpected.

Georgia didn't let Hawaii get up to any of those tricks in last year's Sugar Bowl, stomping the Warriors 41-10. And the last thing Alabama's third-ranked defense wants is to be made a fool by Utah's offense when it takes the field in New Orleans Friday.

“They're making us dig deep into our scheme because they present so much," Crimson Tide cornerback Javier Arenas told reporters. "We have to be prepared for each and every thing. That's what makes our coaching staff great. They prepare us for each situation. At the same time, they have explosive players and they're good.”

The Utes have the weapons to keep Bama's stop unit guessing. Quarterback Brian Johnson settled in after early-season struggles and became one of the best clutch performers in the country. While Johnson can hurt you through the air, second-string pivot Corbin Louks is capable of scrambling for huge gains. The sophomore rushed for over 200 yards and three touchdowns this season.

Utah has also dabbled in the wildcat offense this year. Running backs Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack are used to operating out of the direct snap and while the two have combined for more than 1,200 yards and 14 rushing scores, they've also thrown a pass or two.

Alabama should be familiar with this look. The system is the same one former Utah coach Urban Meyer uses at Florida with burly quarterback Tim Tebow and also very similar too the Arkansas Razorbacks' offensive playbook.

 
Posted : January 2, 2009 12:54 am
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