BYU at Utah State
By Brian Edwards
A pair of teams hoping to resurrect disappointing seasons get that chance on the national stage Friday night when Utah State (1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) plays host to Brigham Young.
Most betting shops have installed BYU (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) as a five-point favorite with a total of 51½. Bettors can take Utah State to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
BoDog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner told VI on Wednesday afternoon, “We opened BYU at minus five and just about all the money from our players has come in on the Cougars. With that said, we haven’t moved to 5½ yet, but it certainly looks like we’re going to be Utah St. fans on Friday night.”
After going 11-2 in 2009, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has fallen on hard times. The Cougars have lost three in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 27-13 loss to Nevada as a four-point home underdog.
BYU opened the season by beating Washington by a 23-17 count as a three-point home favorite. However, since then, the Cougars have been outscored 96-37, going down 35-14 at Air Force and 34-10 at FSU.
In the loss to the Seminoles, junior QB Riley Nelson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Now true freshman Jake Heaps is the starter after he and Nelson split time the first three weeks.
Heaps completed 24-of-45 passes for 229 yards in last week’s loss to the Wolf Pack. Although Heaps didn’t have any TD passes, he didn’t commit a turnover. For the season, Heaps has connected on 54-of-105 attempts (51.4%) for 489 yards with one TD and one interception.
With RB Harvey Unga dismissed from the program in the offseason, junior J.J. Di Luigi has emerged as the Cougars’ go-to guy. Di Luigi has rushed 53 times for 332 yards and two TDs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He’s also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, as evidenced by 18 receptions for 200 yards and one TD.
Gary Andersen’s team is led by senior QB Diondre Borel, who has seen several of his playmakers go down with injuries this season. For starters, junior RB Robert Turbin hasn’t played all year due to a torn ACL. In ’09, Turbin was a second-team All-WAC selection, rushing for 1,296 yards and 12 TDs.
Also, junior WR Stanley Morrison is out for the season after breaking his foot in August. Morrison had a team-high 33 receptions for 616 yards and three TDs last year. Junior WR Matt Austin had earned a spot in the starting lineup, but he sustained a season-ending knee injury in the opener against Oklahoma.
The Aggies easily covered the number and hung extremely tough in their opener in Norman. The Sooners held on for a 31-24 victory, but Utah St. hooked up its backers as a 34-point underdog.
Utah St. bounced back the following week with a 38-17 win over Idaho St., but it failed to cover as a 31-point home favorite. Since then, the Aggies have lost back-to-back games vs. Fresno St. (41-24) and at San Diego St. (41-7).
Borel threw for a season-high 341 yards in the season-opening loss at OU, but he’s passed for just 236 yards in the last two games. Borel has a 4/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the year.
These in-state rivals have met 10 times since 1994 with BYU winning each time, but Utah St. has taken the cash at a 5-4-1 ATS clip. In fact, the Aggies have covered the number in the last two head-to-head encounters.
BYU won last year’s meeting 35-17, but the Aggies hooked up their backers as 24-point road underdogs. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 62 ½-point total. Unga ran for 118 yards and one touchdown for the winners, while Max Hall threw three TD passes. For Utah St., QB Diondre Borel threw for 213 yards and one TD without an interception and also ran for another score.
The ‘under’ has cashed in all four games for BYU this season. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for the Aggies, but the ‘over’ has hit in both of their home games.
This is BYU’s first road favorite spot this year. During Mendenhall’s six-year tenure, the Cougars are 11-9 ATS as road ‘chalk.’ Meanwhile, Utah St. is 1-2 ATS as a home ‘dog on Andersen’s watch.
ESPN will have Friday’s telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Utah St. senior starting OT Spencer Johnson was listed as “doubtful” (as of Wednesday afternoon) for the BYU game with an ankle sprain. Also, starting CB Chris Randle sat out last week’s loss at San Diego St. and is considered “questionable’ with an ankle sprain.
BYU junior nose tackle Romney Fuga was lost for the season last week with a torn ACL. Fuga had 40 tackles in 2009.
The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings between BYU and Utah St.
We mentioned BYU’s 10-game winning streak in the Battle for the “Beehive Boot.” Going back even further, the Cougars have won 20 of the last 21 games in this rivalry that includes 79 all-time meetings. Friday’s showdown will be the 80th encounter in series history.
During Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure at Florida, the Gators have only been underdogs three times. They have covered the spread in all three instances. UF lost but covered at LSU in ’05 and ’07, and the Gators dealt out a 41-14 clubbing to Ohio St. as 7½-point underdogs in the 2006 BCS Championship Game.
FSU is a seven-point favorite Saturday at Virginia. The Seminoles haven’t been to Charlottesville since 2005 when they dropped a 26-21 decision to UVA as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ The ‘Noles are an abysmal 6-11 ATS in their last 17 spots as road favorites.
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Friday's Game Analysis
BYU was outscored 38-3 in second half in losing last three games; hard to win at this level with freshman QB. Last time BYU lost three in row was 2005-06. Cougars won last 10 series games, with average score in last three, 36-10. Utah State was outscored 65-14 in its last six quarters, after being tied at half in home loss to Fresno State. Aggies are 9-13 as home underdog since 2003 . BYU is 14-18 as road fave since 2000, 4-5 last two years.
BYU at Utah State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
It’s Big Love in the state of Utah with the BYU Cougars taking on the Utah State Aggies Friday night. Don't let their combined 2-6 records turn you off, both teams have played tough schedules and face a critical must-win situation on national TV.
And let's not forget that the winner of this instate rivalry gets “The Old Wagon Wheel”
Why BYU will cover
The Cougars are on a three-game losing streak, however, those teams (Air Force, Florida State, and Nevada) have a combined record of 10-2. After going through such a tough gauntlet, Utah State provides a bit of drop off in talent. The added motivation of this being a game on ESPN and a “must win” will ensure that BYU will bring its A-game.
Quarterback Jake Heaps will also be a key factor and could have a breakthrough game Friday night. The true freshman was a five-star QB in high school and he is already showing upperclassmen maturity by putting last week's loss on his shoulders.
"The only finger you can point is at me,” Heaps told the media. “I had opportunities and plays I could make and throws I just didn’t make. Offensively we battled and made some great plays. We drove the field and had our way with the defense but just couldn’t finish."
On the defensive side, BYU proved in the Nevada game that it can handle someone like Utah State QB Diondre Borel. The Cougars stop unit managed to keep fleet-footed QB Colin Kaepernick to under 100 yards in rushing and held the country’s fourth-ranked offense to their lowest point total of the season.
History is also on the Cougars’ side with BYU riding a 10-game winning streak in this series.
Why Utah State will cover
The Aggies are coming off of two poor performances in which they seemed to lack motivation and focus. Last week against San Diego State, they gave up 21 points in the first quarter which set the tone for the rest of the game.
So with all this negativity why will Utah State cover? Well, it seems like this is a team that will play its best when under the spotlight. Utah State proved it against Oklahoma in its season opener. As 34-point road underdogs, the Aggies nearly beat the Sooners straight up, losing 31-24. Diondre Borel was a key factor in that game throwing for 341 yards and two TDs.
This is the second time in two years that ESPN will be visiting Logan, Utah (the first being last year's game against Boise) and backers can expect to see more of the team that played in Norman rather than the one they have watched in the last two weeks.
Despite losing 10 straight games against BYU, Utah State kept the game close last year and was trailing just 21-17 in the fourth quarter. It’s the last year for Borel and several other starters and they will be aiming to impress against their instate rivals.
Notes and trends
The line opened up at -6.5 in favor of BYU but it has now moved to -4.5 at most books, despite the fact that popular opinion is on the Cougars. Utah State is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight games in this series. However, this is the lowest line on record in this series. In the last three years, BYU has been favored by an average of 25 points.
The total sits at 51.5 and has seen only slight movement. All four BYU games have gone under the total this year. The under has also hit for three straight years in this series
The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies by kickoff with lows in the 40s.
BYU seeks 11th straight win over Utah St.
By: Brian Graham
BYU COUGARS (1-3) at UTAH STATE AGGIES (1-3)
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: BYU -4.5, Total: 51.5
The Friday primetime game in Logan, UT pits a couple of 1-3 teams. BYU has been outscored 96 to 37 during its three-game losing skid and Utah State has allowed 41 points in each of its past two losses -- to Fresno State and at San Diego State. BYU has beaten Utah State 10 straight times, including last year’s 35-17 pounding in Provo.
Brigham Young is a mess on both sides of the ball, ranking fifth-worst in the nation in scoring (15 PPG) and third-to-last in rushing defense (264 YPG allowed). QB Jake Heaps has completed just 51 percent of his passes and only has one TD toss in four games (105 pass attempts).
The Aggies QB situation isn’t much better. Diondre Borel has completed just 25-of-54 passes for 236 yards in the last two games. But Borel had a great game against BYU last year, going 20-of-28 for 213 yards and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing).
Despite BYU’s straight-up dominance, Utah State is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. But this FoxSheets trend shows that Utah State doesn’t recover quickly from lopsided road losses, making BYU the play.
UTAH ST is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992. The average score was UTAH ST 18.5, OPPONENT 32.6 - (Rating = 3*).
The FoxSheets also show that Utah State’s defense is likely to improve, making the Under a wise play. Play Under - Any team against the total (UTAH ST) - with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. (309-192 over the last 10 seasons.) (61.7%, +97.8 units. Rating = 3*).
This BYU trend concerning its clock-eating running game also backs the under pick.
BYU is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was BYU 27.3, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 2*).
Tips and Trends
BYU Cougars AT Utah St. Aggies
COUGARS: (-5, O/U 51.5) BYU has already seen their season slip away, a shock considering just how consistent this program has been through the years. The Cougars have been bad on both sides of the ball, and as a result have lost their past 3 games SU my multiple TD's. This Cougars offense is only averaging 15 PPG, the 5th worst in the nation. For a team with so many problems and question marks, the last thing this team needs is to play on a short week. BYU typically struggles in October, going 1-8 ATS in their past 9 October games. The Cougars also traditionally sruggle against the WAC, going 2-7 ATS in their past 9 matchups with the conference. This contest against Utah St. marks the final game before Mountain West Conference play for BYU. Considering this is their final year in the conference, the Cougars are likely to get their opponents best shot. Because of their struggling offense, the Cougars have played to the Under in each game this season.
Cougars are 7-3 ATS last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 8-2 last 10 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Key Injuries - LB Brandon Ogletree (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
AGGIES: Utah St. very well could be the best 1-3 SU team you've never heard of. The Aggies are a dangerous group that play a unique brand of offensive football. In their season opener, they nearly upset Oklahoma as 34 point underdogs. Since that Week 1 ATS win, the Aggies have failed to win a game ATS since. Utah St. played their worst game of the season last week on the road against San Diego St, ultimately losing 7-41 SU. The Aggies typically playing Mountain West conference teams tough, as they are 6-2 ATS in their past 8 MWC matchups. The Aggies have moved the ball at will this year, yet are only averaging 23.3 PPG. QB Diondre Borel is the playmaker and leader of this Aggies team, as he makes plays with both his arm and feet. Borel didn't score a TD in his last game against the Aztecs, so one can only assume he will bounceback against BYU. The Utah St. defense has given up 41 PTS in each of their past 2 games, a trend that must change quickly. The Aggies are giving up 32.5 PPG this year, the 19th worst in the nation. Utah St. has played BYU tough the past 2 seasons, winning each contest ATS as double digit underdogs.
Aggies are 6-2 ATS last 8 games against the MWC.
Under is 7-1-1 last 9 games in October.
Key Injuries - CB Chris Randle (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)