Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
Oddsmakers currently have the Bearcats listed as 4-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 47½.
Kazeem Alli caught the winning touchdown in overtime in Week 11, as Cincinnati got by West Virginia 26-23. The 49 points made it OVER the posted total of 45.5.
Tony Pike completed 15-of-30 for 165 yards with one TD, and rushed for a touchdown in the win.
Hunter Cantwell completed 15-of-28 pass attempts for 164 yards, one touchdown and one interception as Louisville lost 41-7 to Pittsburgh in Week 11.
The Cardinals did not cover the 6.5-point spread, while the combined score played UNDER the day's posted total of 52.5.
Current streak:
Cincinnati has won 2 straight games.
Louisville has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Cincinnati: 7-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Louisville: 5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 6-4
Louisville most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisville
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisville
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Louisville is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Next up:
Cincinnati home to Pittsburgh, Saturday, November 22
Louisville home to West Virginia, Saturday, November 22
CINCINNATI (7 - 2) at LOUISVILLE (5 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Cincinnati at Louisville
Cincinnati: 14-5 ATS playing with 6 or less days rest
Louisville: 5-1 Under after gaining 100 or less rushing yards
CINCINNATI vs. LOUISVILLE
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
What bettors need to know: Cincinnati at Louisville
By DAVID PAYNE
Cincinnati at Louisville (+3.5, 48)
Line opened with the Bearcats as a 3.5-point favorite and has not moved significantly. Ditto for the total, which has been hanging around 48 since opening.
Here's the Situation
Louisville is desperate. The Cardinals are coming off two ugly losses, including 28-21 to Syracuse (Yikes) and need one more win to become bowl eligible.
Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat isn’t hot yet, but it’s warming quickly in his second up-and-down season since succeeding Bobby Petrino. A disappointing performance on national TV would not please an increasingly listless fan base.
It’s a big game for Kragthorpe, and you expect everything the Cardinals have.
Cincinnati is much more stable under hot-commodity coach Brian Kelly. After last week’s impressive upset at West Virginia, the Bearcats control their destiny in the Big East and have visions of South Beach in January.
Kelly has won championships at each level of his coaching career. A BCS bowl berth would almost certainly punch his ticket to one of the premier job openings around the country.
Weather
The beginning of a strong cold front will bring rain and freshening winds to Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium sometime during the night. A second glance at the forecast closer to 8 p.m. EST kickoff should reveal just how much a factor the weather will be.
The Running Game
Louisville is superior at running back, with emerging freshman Victor Anderson. The Cardinals average 178.7 yards on the ground.
They’re also better than UC at stopping the run. UL ranks seventh in the nation against the run.
Your Quarterbacks
Louisville’s Hunter Cantwell: At 6-5, 236 pounds, Cantwell has all the tools to be an NFL prospect. But the senior hasn’t played like one. He’s completing less than 58 percent of his passes and has a 13-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio.
He’s not a threat to scramble and has thrown at least one interception in six consecutive games.
Kragthorpe inserted backup Matt Sims, son of Phil, into last week’s game for a few series.
Cincinnati’s Tony Pike: A 6-6, 211-pound junior, Pike has started all but two game since opening day starter Dustin Grutza went down in Week 2. His non-throwing arm is still heavily bandaged from surgery, but it has not affected his play too dramatically.
Like Cantwell, Pike’s numbers won’t blow you away, and he’s not a threat to scramble.
For the first time since the injury, Grutza is expected to be available, if needed.
Athletic/Talent Advantage
During the Oklahoma-Cincinnati game, an ABC announcer said an NFL scout was on hand looking at least 10 Bearcat players.
This is an athletic team with a defense that starts 10 seniors.
The Bearcats have two game-changers in receivers Dominick Goodman and Marshwan Gilyard, who have combined for 12 touchdowns this season.
Gilyard is also extremely dangerous on kick-off returns, as both Oklahoma and West Virginia have found out.
Cincinnati hung with Oklahoma in the fist half, until Grutza was knocked out.
Injuries
This will be Louisville’s second game without top receiver Scott Long, who tore his ACL during an Oct. 28 practice.
Last Year
Louisville 28, Cincinnati 24
The Cardinals capitalized on four Bearcat turnovers to win their fifth consecutive meeting border rivals.
(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)
The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.
Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.
Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.
Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.
Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.
Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.
The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gametimepicks.com
Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals
The Bearcats (7-2, 4-4 ATS) responding with consecutive wins over South Florida and most recently West Virginia have moved into a three way tie in the BIG East. Staying atop the heap won't be easy despite battling a strugling Cardinals (5-4, 4-4 ATS) squad which has dropped two straight. Bearcats have not had success vs Cardinals losing nine of ten meetings cashing but two of the contests (2-8 ATS). Trends of note: Bearcats enter 3-5 ATS the past eight as 4 or less point favorites, 4-6 ATS it's L10 conference games. Cardinals are a cash draining 2-8-1 ATS as 4 or less pups, 5-5 ATS L10 hosting a conference rival.
NCAAF RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
Cincy vs. Louisville
Big East Contest here. What kept me away from this game is the fact that I am no fan on Louisville and if anything I would lean on the dog here considering Louisville comes off the embarrassing loss Pittsburgh on the road. Yet, Cincy is a good team. So, stuck between a rock and a hard place here so I just decided to stay away from this game. Some information you can use for this game is that 62% of the public rides Cincy here, the better team who is 7-2 on the year. Both teams are 4-4 ATS this year. Cincy has been rock solid coming off back to back wins including an overtime outright win at West Virginia. This team quickly shaped up after their blowout loss to Connecticut on the road. But, here is the deal, Louisville comes off back to back losses on the road to Syracuse and Pittsburgh. They return home finally. This is a similar situation to their must win against South Florida at home which they got it done. But, Cincy is simply the better team and is known for their defense. My leans on this game are Cincy and the Under.
Cincinnati at Louisville
By Brian Edwards
Cincinnati (7-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) has won six of its last seven games to pull into a three-way tie for first place in the Big East standings. However, the Bearcats don’t have any wiggle room as they go into Louisville tonight to face Steve Kragthorpe’s team.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bearcats as 3½-point favorites with a total of 49. As of early this afternoon, most spots had Cincy tabbed as a four-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted down to 47. The Cardinals are plus-155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).
Louisville (5-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) is once again struggling in Kragthorpe’s second season in charge. The Cars were the nation’s most disappointing team in 2007, completely falling off the map in a 6-6 campaign that was preceded by a four-year run under Bobby Petrino that produced a 41-9 record.
Louisville appeared to be back on track until its three-game winning streak both SU and ATS was snapped in an embarrassing 28-21 loss at Syracuse two weeks ago. The Cards went into the Carrier Dome as 11-point road favorites, only to lose to Greg Robinson’s bunch for a second straight season.
Last weekend wasn’t much better for the Cards, who took woodshed treatment in a 41-7 blowout loss at Pittsburgh as six-point road underdogs. The 48 combined points stayed below the 52-point total as gamblers cashed ‘under’ bets for the third straight time in a Louisville contest.
Brian Kelly’s team went into Morgantown last Saturday night and dominated West Virginia for the first 59 minutes. However, the Mountaineers mounted a furious rally to force overtime. Trailing 20-7 with 1:11 left, WVU got a safety and then a quick touchdown and two-point conversion. Next, the ‘Neers recovered an onside kick that set up Pat McAfee’s 52-yard field goal as time expired.
With its first possession of the extra session, Bill Stewart’s team had to settle for another McAfee field goal. Then the Bearcats, seemingly on the verge of allowing a critical Big East win to slip away on the road, got a two-yard touchdown pass from Tony Pike to Kazeem Alli to take the 26-23 victory.
Cincy won outright as a seven-point underdog, while the 49 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 47-point tally. Bettors who backed the ‘under’ were left with a mind-boggling loss, as the scoreboard saw just 27 points scored in the first 59 minutes of play.
Kelly’s squad is back on the road for the second time in as many weeks in this spot. The Bearcats are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in five previous road assignments. Meanwhile, Louisville is 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS at home.
Cincy’s success this season has been a moderate surprise, especially considering the circumstances surrounding the club’s quarterbacks. For starters, Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk, who had an outstanding 31/9 touchdown-interception ratio in 2007, was denied a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA.
Then Dustin Grutza went down with a broken leg in a 52-26 loss at Oklahoma. Next, Pike broke his non-throwing arm, leaving Kelly to go with freshman Chazz Anderson for several games. Anderson then got hurt, forcing Pike back into action just a few weeks removed from breaking his arm.
But to Kelly’s credit, his team has persevered despite the merry-go-round under center. Pike has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio and appears to have secured the starting job, although Grutza is almost ready to return and might dress out tonight. Anderson is also back and will be available against the Cards.
Before the 2008 campaign started, I felt like Louisville wouldn't have too much of a dropoff from three-year starting QB Brian Brohm to senior signal caller Hunter Cantwell. However, this space was flat-out wrong.
Cantwell, still considered a solid NFL prospect thanks to his size and skills, just hasn't gotten the job done. He has a mediocre 13/11 TD-INT ratio.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Cincy is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite during Kelly's brief two-year tenure. Speaking of that tenure and as it pertains to brief, there has been speculation that Kelly could be a candidate for the Tennessee job that came open when Phillip Fulmer took his pink slip last week.
--Louisville is 2-0 both SU and ATS as a home 'dog under Kragthorpe. The Cards beat both South Florida and Kansas St. in such spots earlier this season.
--Since 2006, Illinois owns a 9-2 spread record as an underdog. The Illini is a 9 ½-point home underdog Saturday vs. Ohio St. Bettors should keep in mind that the Buckeyes are in revenge mode after losing 28-21 to Illinois last season as 15-point home favorites.
--Great stat from Marc Lawrence on last night’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio: Southern Cal is 25-0 SU and 20-5 ATS in the month of November during Pete Carroll’s tenure.
--Also from Lawrence: The last 12 times a team (Alabama in this instance) has beaten the defending national champ both SU and ATS, it is 1-11 ATS the next time out.
vegasinsider.com.