Buffalo Bulls vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 4-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total is sitting at 55½.
Buffalo scored 19 points in the OT session, as they upset Akron 43-40 in Week 12. Buffalo won that game as a slight 3-point underdog, while the 83 points sailed OVER the posted total of 61.
James Sparks rushed for 151 yards and three touchdowns. Drew Willy completed 27-of-39 for 252 yards with a touchdown, while rushing for another in the win.
Tyler Sheehan threw for two touchdown passes as Bowling Green beat Ohio 28-3 in Week 11.
The Falcons covered the 2.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 50.5.
Current streak:
Buffalo has won 4 straight games.
Bowling Green has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Buffalo: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS
Bowling Green: 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing within the conference are 6-4
Bowling Green most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Bowling Green's last 13 games
Next up:
Buffalo home to Kent State, Friday, November 28
Bowling Green at Toledo, Friday, November 28
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks vs. Toledo Rockets
Oddsmakers currently have the Rockets listed as 3-point favorites versus the RedHawks, while the game's total is sitting at 51.
Daniel Raudabaugh was 25-of-42 for 254 yards with a touchdown for Miami-OH in its 31-16 loss to Ball State in Week 12.
Ball State failed to cover as 16-point road favorites as the game played under the 54.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Aaron Opelt threw for one touchdown and one interception for Toledo in a 27-17 loss to Western Michigan in Week 12.
The Rockets covered the 15-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 53.5.
Current streak:
Miami (Ohio) has lost 3 straight games.
Toledo has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Miami (Ohio): 2-8 SU, 4-5 ATS
Toledo: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
Miami (Ohio) most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7
Toledo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 10 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toledo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 6 games
Miami (Ohio) is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toledo
Toledo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toledo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
Toledo is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
Toledo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Miami (Ohio) home to Ohio, Friday, November 28
Toledo home to Bowling Green, Friday, November 28
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 50.
Fresno State defeated New Mexico State 24-17 in week 12. Fresno State State failed to cover the 17.5-point spread, while the combined 41 points fell UNDER the posted total of 64.
San Jose State was defeated 41-17 by Nevada in Week 12 as a 15-point road underdog. The 51 points made it OVER the posted total of 50.
Current streak:
San Jose State has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Fresno State: 6-4 SU, 1-9 ATS
San Jose State: 6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Fresno State most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 5-5
San Jose State most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Fresno State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Jose State
Fresno State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
Fresno State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose State
San Jose State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
San Jose State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
San Jose State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State
San Jose State is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Fresno State
Next up:
Fresno State at Boise State, Friday, November 28
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 8) at TOLEDO (2 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
TOLEDO is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BUFFALO (6 - 4) at BOWLING GREEN (5 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST (6 - 4) at SAN JOSE ST (6 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
FRESNO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
FRESNO ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Miami (OH) at Toledo
Miami (OH): 5-1 Under off SU loss
Toledo: 28-14 ATS at home vs. conference
(TC) Buffalo at Bowling Green
Buffalo: 14-5 ATS in road games
Bowling Green: 3-10 ATS in home games
Fresno State at San Jose State
Fresno State: 0-7 ATS as favorite
San Jose State: 11-3 ATS at home games
BUFFALO vs. BOWLING GREEN
Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. TOLEDO
Miami (Ohio) is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 6 games
Toledo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
Toledo is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami (Ohio)
FRESNO STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
Fresno State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
San Jose State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
San Jose State is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Fresno State
What bettors need to know: College football Friday
By JASON LOGAN
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons
Line: Bowling Green -3.5
The Bulls have reeled off four straight wins, going 2-1 against the spread during the stretch. Most recently, they pulled out a W in a 43-40 quadruple-overtime classic against Akron last Thursday.
Buffalo charged to the top of the MAC East standings and can now claim its first outright division title and a ticket to the conference championship game.
“This is a great win for our program” head coach Turner Gill told reporters following Thursday's game. “The whole team were warriors today. These guys played hard and did not give up”
The return of running back James Starks sparked the Bulls late-season streak. He missed action mid way through the season due to injury. But since returning, the junior has sped for 513 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns in the last three games.
“It’s a great feeling to be sore but come away with the victory,” Starks told reporters after rushing for three touchdowns Thursday. “If it was the other way around it would have been sad. I’m just proud to win this game. A total team effort.”
Starks is also a threat on pass plays. He caught 13 balls for 90 yards last week and has 247 yards receiving so far this season.
Bowling Green is riding a streak of its own into Friday's game. It's won back-to-back contests, including a 28-3 beat down of Ohio Saturday. The Falcons defense shut down the Bobcats for just 228 total yards with only 40 of those coming on the ground. However, that performance came against one of the weakest running offenses in the MAC.
They can keep their conference championship hopes as well as bowl game plans alive with a win over Buffalo Friday. But they may have to do it shorthanded.
The Falcons roster has been plagued by injuries since early in the season. Heading into this week's crucial contest junior receiver Freddie Barnes, leading rusher Anthony Turner and fellow running back Willie Geter are among the wounded.
Their status for Friday is unknown and head coach Gregg Brandon likes it that way.
"I'm going to be a hockey guy. Hockey never talks about their injuries, do they?" Brandon joked with the Toledo Blade. He later confessed that he expects these players to at least practice this week.
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Toledo Rockets
Line: Toledo -3
The Redhawks dropped three straight games following 31-16 loss to ranked conference foe Ball State last Tuesday. Miami (Ohio) did well to keep pace with the Cardinals in the first half but managed just a field goal in the final two quarters.
The struggling offense can be blamed on the Redhawks’ quarterback woes. With freshman Clay Belton watching from the sideline due to a shoulder injury, the team handed the ball back to junior Daniel Raudabaugh, who lost his starting gig to Belton earlier in the year.
Daniel Raudabaugh passed for 252 yards but could only muster one touchdown pass. The lack of scoring through the air has been Miami's biggest vice this season. It averages just over 214 yards per game and has scored just seven passing touchdowns.
The Redhawks have had 10-days rest to help get Belton back on the field. He is currently listed as questionable along with defensive tackle Jordain Brown and corner back Jeff Thompson.
"We always tell our guys that after the first couple days of practice, you're not going to feel 100 percent the rest of the year," coach Shane Montgomery told the Dayton Daily News. "When you play a 12-game season, especially when you play different days of the week, it's good to have a couple extra days to get those guys away from football and get them refreshed."
Toledo dropped its fourth game in a row with a 27-17 defeat to Western Michigan Saturday. This current slide has moved the Rockets to 2-8 (5-5 ATS) on the season and has them sitting at the bottom of the MAC West.
Toledo's offense is playing far better than the team's record would indicate. Over the last three games the Rockets are averaging over 23 points on 369 total yards. It currently ranks 11th in total offense in the conference, averaging just 329 yards per game.
"We're doing whatever we can to try to get the ball down the field, try to get more points on the board," head coach Tom Amstutz told reporters last weekend. "We took some risks to do that, to get the ball down in there to see if we can get some more points. That's what our philosophy was, and we went for it."
Amstutz has just two games remaining as head coach. He is stepping down at the end of season following a string of unsuccessful seasons.
"I'm staying focused on my job at hand to coach the Rockets in (two) more games," Amstutz said. "That's my main focus. I'll do more reflecting at the end of the season. I'm enjoying our last games."
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans
Line: San Jose State +2.5
Fresno State snapped a two game losing skid with a win over New Mexico State Saturday. The Bulldogs were tagged as 17-point favorites but barely squeaked out the victory with a fourth-quarter score.
Numerous injuries have left FSU's depth chart looking like swiss cheese. Running backs Ryan Mathews and Lonyae Miller are both battling injuries. Mathews has missed three games and numerous plays with a foot injury and is doubtful for Friday.
Miller had a couple carries against the Aggies before getting pulled by coach Pat Hill, who said the running back didn't look to be at full strength. He is currently listed as questionable. The short week between games doesn't help the numerous other injuries piling up in the trainer's room.
"We're going to need these guys down the stretch," Hill told the the Fresno Bee. "This San Jose State [game] is big, a lot on the line."
With a win, the Bulldogs can jump to as high as second if they knock off the Spartans at home Friday. However, they have WAC darlings Boise State on deck and could suffer a classic look-ahead spot this week.
San Jose State has lost back-to-back games after struggling to keep opponents out of the endzone. The WAC's second stingiest defense has given up 62 total points over those losses, most recently 41 points to Nevada Saturday.
The Spartans allowed big plays to burn them as well as the Pack's rushing attack. Nevada ran for 333 yards picking up almost seven yards per carry. San Jose averages just 139 yards against on the ground this season.
The other big issue hanging over SJSU Friday is at the quarterback position. Head coach Dick Tomey has yet to side with a starter after junior Kyle Reed went down with a groin injury last week. If the first stringer is unable to go, the Spartans will give the ball to either Myles Eden or Sean Flynn.
"Our quarterback situation is going to be evaluated throughout the week. It will be a game-time decision,” Tomey said during the weekly press conference. His is being very quiet about the condition of Reed as well as the readiness of his backups.
Reed has thrown for over 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Eden has thrown 60 passes for 450 yards while Flynn has passed for just 3-of-6 for 14 yards.
Miami (Ohio) (2-8, 4-5 ATS) at Toledo (2-8, 5-5 ATS)
Two teams basically playing out the string meet in a Mid-American Conference game in Toledo when the Redhawks and Rockets go in search of just their third win of the year.
Miami (Ohio) has lost three straight (1-2 ATS) and six of the last seven (3-4 ATS) and sit at the bottom of the MAC’s East Division with a 1-5 league mark (3-3 ATS). The Redhawks fell 31-16 to unbeaten Ball State on Nov. 11, but they cashed as 17½-point home ‘dogs. QB Daniel Raudabaugh had one of his better games, throwing for 254 yards and a TD.
Toledo has dropped four straight (2-2 ATS) and seven of its last eight (4-4 ATS), and it is tied for last in the MAC’s West Division with an identical 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS league record. The Rockets have dropped four straight at home (2-2 ATS) and they haven’t won a game since upsetting Michigan 13-10 on Oct. 11. Last week, Toledo fell 27-17 at Western Michigan, but cashed as 14-point pups. The defense, which has given up at least 24 points in seven of its last eight games (all losses), is the worst in the MAC, allowing 32.5 points per game.
The home is on a 4-1 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry, but the last time these two met was in 2004 when they played twice within a month, once in the regular season and once in the MAC title game. Miami won the regular-season battle at home 23-16 as six-point favorites but lost 35-27 as a 1½-point pup in the conference championship game.
The Redhawks are on ATS slides of 3-8 in MAC contests, 2-6 against teams with a losing record and 1-5 in November contests, but they are a solid 9-5 ATS in their last 14 on the road. Toledo is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games and 4-1 ATS in its last five against losing teams.
It’s been all “unders” for Miami (Ohio) lately, including 4-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 5-1 in conference games and 10-4 against teams with a losing record. For the Rockets, the over is 11-4 in their last 15 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 against teams with a losing record, but otherwise Toledo is on under runs of 5-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 in MAC games and 7-1 coming off a straight-up loss. Also, the under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Buffalo (6-4, 7-3 ATS) at Bowling Green (5-5, 7-3 ATS)
The Bulls go in search of their fifth straight victory and a MAC East Division title when they take the field in Bowling Green, Ohio.
Buffalo leads the East Division by a game over Bowling Green and Akron and can secure its place in the MAC title game with a win, leading. Last week, the Bulls earned a 43-40 overtime win at Akron, cashing in as a 2½-point pup, making them bowl-eligible for the first time and putting them in control of their own destiny for the division crown. Coach Turner Gil’s squad is in the top-10 in the country with a plus-13 turnover margin, and they’ve got a steady QB in Drew Willy, who has thrown 126 consecutive passes without an INT. Going back to the mid point of last season, Willy has a 29-4 TD-to-INT ratio.
Bowling Green has won two straight, but has been idle since crushing Ohio 28-3 as a 2½-point road favorite back on Nov. 8. That win has put the Falcons in control of their own destiny, as the can claim the MAC East title with a win tonight and a win at Toledo next week. Junior QB Tyler Sheehan leads the Falcons offense with 2,129 passing yards and 16 TD passes (7 INTs), and he also has a team-high five rushing touchdowns and a receiving score.
Bowling Green has won four straight in this series (2-2 ATS), including last year’s 31-17 road victory as a one-point ‘dog. The last time these two squared off in Ohio, the Falcons scored a thrilling 48-40 overtime win, but came nowhere close to covering as 22-point favorites.
Buffalo is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 7-3 overall, 7-0 on the road (5-0 this year), 8-3 in MAC games, 6-2 in November contests and 5-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is on ATS slides of 3-13 at home (0-3 this year) and 1-4 after a straight-up win, but the Falcons are on positive ATS streaks of 10-4 overall, 7-2 in MAC contests and 5-0 in November.
For the Bulls, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall, 19-7 in conference games and 4-1 in November. Conversely, Bowling Green sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in MAC contests, 5-2 coming off a spread-cover and 7-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Fresno State (6-4, 1-9 ATS) at San Jose State (6-5, 5-5 ATS)
Fresno State will try to continue its mastery over the Spartans when these two Western Athletic Conference rivals clash in San Jose.
The Bulldogs have won nine of the last 10 meetings (6-4 ATS) with San Jose State and blanked the Spartans last year 30-0, easily cashing as a 13-point home favorite. Fresno is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) in its last four visits to San Jose, but the one loss came in its most recent trip in 2006, when the Spartans prevailed 24-14 as a three-point home chalk. The straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in this rivalry dating back to 1998.
The Bulldogs had high hopes coming into this season, but poor defense has killed the team, yielding 28 points in seven straight games prior to last week’s 24-17 home win over New Mexico State. However, Fresno State failed to cover as 17-point home favorites, the team’s ninth straight ATS setback. Going back to the end of the 2005 season, Pat Hill’s troops are just 9-28 against the number.
San Jose State has dropped two straight and three of four, and last week the Spartans got steamrolled at Nevada, losing 41-17 as a 15½-point road ‘dog for their fourth straight non-cover, all in WAC play. San Jose State’s defense has allowed 770 rushing yards the last three weeks, including 333 to the Wolf Pack on Saturday. Offensively, the Spartans have produced a total of 16 points in their last two at home, losses to Boise State (33-16) and Louisiana Tech (21-0).
In addition to its current 9-28 ATS slide, Fresno State is mired in pointspread funks of 7-19 in WAC games, 3-12 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in true road games, 0-4 in November, 0-6 on Fridays and 16-35-1 after a non-cover. The Spartans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home, but the two non-covers have come in their last two at Spartan Stadium.
The Bulldogs are on over streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 6-2-1 after a non-cover and 4-1-1 following a straight-up win. On the flip side, San Jose State carries “under” trends of 22-8-1 overall, 20-6-1 in conference action, 10-4 in November, 22-6-1 on grass and 11-4-1 after a non-cover. The under is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these regional rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN JOSE STATE and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
NCAAF RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
As you know, I'm always about the dog. Always have been an underdog player and always will be - just the way that I am. That's why I passionately believe in the Underdog that can win outright theory. To me, this game is extremely interesting. You have two teams that desperately need this game. Buffalo rolls in at 6-4 and 2-3 on the road. They come off big wins over Kent State 45-30 and over Ohio 28-3 on the road - and heck, they were favored by just -2.5 in that game. They are atop their section in the MAC. They have a solid offense as they are top 45 in the nation. They are 40 in passing and 57th in rushing. However, their defense is 97th overall, 106th passing and 70th rushing. Both teams are 6-3 ATS. Bowling Green is much better on defense as they are 62 overall, but check this, they are 26th in the nation in pass coverage but 90th in the nation in rush defense. Their offense struggles at bit as they are top 80 on offense, 53rd in passing and top 95 in rushing. So, what you have is the better offensive team on the road against a better defensive team at home. Who has revenge? Buffalo. Bowling Green beat this team 31-17 last year so the road team has the revenge. If I had to take a lean here, I would roll with the road Buffs for the outright here, but I actually took another play instead today. However, I gave Buffalo a strong look and will offer it as a comp play. good luck. thanks.