Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals
Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 15-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total is sitting at 62.
Buffalo lost to Kent State 24-21 as a 10-point favorite on Friday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (59).
Drew Willy threw for 240 yards with a touchdown for Buffalo and James Starks rushed for 136 yards and a TD on 24 carries.
MiQuale Lewis rushed for 120 yards on 32 carries with three touchdowns, as Ball State coasted over Western Michigan 45-22 in Week 14.
Ball State covered as 10-point home favorites as the teams played over the 54.5-point total set by oddsmakers and the Cardinals moved to 12-0.
Team records:
Buffalo: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS
Ball State: 12-0 SU, 9-2 ATS
Buffalo most recently:
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
After playing Kent State are 1-6
Ball State most recently:
When playing in December are 0-1
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When playing within the conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ball State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ball State's last 7 games
BUFFALO (7 - 5) vs. BALL ST (12 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BALL ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALL ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
BUFFALO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO vs. BALL STATE
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ball State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo vs Ball State
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS as underdog
Ball State: 8-2 ATS this season
MAC Championship Game
By Brian Edwards
Ball State will be looking to remain perfect when it faces Buffalo in Friday’s MAC title game at Ford Field in Detroit. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Cardinals as 14-point favorites with a total of 60.
As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots had Ball St. (12-0 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) listed as a 15-point favorite with a total of 61. Bettors can back Buffalo (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) for a plus-440 return on the money line (risk $100 to win $440).
Brady Hoke’s team clinched the MAC West by virtue of back-to-back wins both SU and ATS over Central Michigan and Western Michigan in the last two weeks. The Cardinals took out the Broncos last Tuesday, cruising to an easy 45-22 win as 10-point home favorites.
Junior quarterback Nate Davis connected on 17-of-25 passes for 273 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Davis also had seven rushes for 64 yards and a touchdown. Junior RB MiQuale Lewis produced a workmanlike performance, rushing 32 times for 120 yards and three TDs.
Turner Gill’s squad saw its five-game winning streak come to a halt in its last outing, a 24-21 loss to Kent St. as a nine-point home favorite. The Bulls had a 21-17 lead midway through the final stanza, but they couldn’t contain Kent St. QB Julian Edelman during the Flashes’ game-winning drive.
Nevertheless, Buffalo is in position to win its first conference title, while Ball St. is shooting for its first MAC championship since 1996.
Both teams are going to Detroit for the first time because of brilliant play from their respective QBs. Davis ranks sixth in the nation with a QB rating of 169.3. He has completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 3,091 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-interception ratio. Davis has also rushed for 241 yards and three TDs.
Buffalo senior QB Drew Willy has connected on 64.5 percent of his passes for 2,885 yards with a 22/5 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is junior WR Naaman Roosevelt, who leads the MAC with 86 receptions for 1,196 yards and 10 TD catches.
Both clubs also have outstanding featured backs. In fact, Ball St.’s Lewis ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game, averaging 130.8 YPG. Buffalo’s James Starks is sixth in the country with 122.6 yards rushing per game.
Starks has eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the second straight year. He has rushed for 1,226 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2008, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Ball St. is 15th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 37.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bulls are scoring at a 30.2 PPG clip. They’ll face a Cardinals defense that has given up just 16.7 PPG.
Since Buffalo joined the MAC, Ball St. has won all four head-to-head meetings and covered the spread in the three games that had a line. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in those meetings that had a total.
The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last six games, 7-4 overall. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Ball State’s last seven games, 6-5 overall.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Buffalo vs. Ball State
By MATT SEVERANCE
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals
The line: It opened favoring Ball State by two touchdowns but has risen between a half point and point. The total of 62 has stayed steady.
What’s at stake: Unfortunately for Ball State, not as much as it would like. An unbeaten season is a goal, but a BCS bowl won’t happen with the Cards third in line behind Utah and Boise State among unbeaten non-BCS teams.
There was talk of an all-BSU bowl matching Boise State and Ball State in the Humanitarian Bowl, but the Cards didn’t want to play a bowl game in Boise State’s home stadium. Thus, Ball State seems headed to either the Motor City Bowl or GMAC Bowl. Buffalo appears targeted for the International Bowl.
How they got to Detroit’s Ford Field: The MAC West champion Cardinals had their first perfect regular season since 1965. The East champion Bulls won the school’s first-ever division title. It’s the first MAC title game for both. The Cardinals and Bulls will become the 10th different teams to play in the MAC title game in the past seven seasons.
Series history: Ball State has won all six meetings. Last year, the Cards led 28-0 at halftime on the way to a 49-14 victory (since that loss, Buffalo is 9-5 in the MAC). Ball State produced 507 yards of total offense to Buffalo's 219 yards. This will be the first neutral-site meeting.
Offense, offense, offense: Can Buffalo handle the best one-two punch in the MAC in QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis? No teams have yet.
Davis was named the MAC Offensive Player of the Year this week. He has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,095 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, good for sixth in the nation in passing efficiency. He also has run for 318 yards and four touchdowns on 49 carries.
Lewis is the MAC leader with 1,570 yards rushing to go along with 234 yards receiving and 20 touchdowns. He ranks fourth in the country in rushing and second in touchdowns and 100-yard games (10).
Buffalo is no slouch on offense behind RB James Starks and QB Drew Willy. Starks is sixth in the nation in rushing (122.6 ypg) and second in the MAC. He has 344 rushing yards fewer than Lewis but played in two fewer games due to injury. Starks has five runs of 50 yards or more this season.
Willy is fourth in the MAC in passing at 240.4 yards per game. In the past 18 games, he has 33 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. Receiver Naaman Roosevelt leads the MAC in receiving yards with 1,196 and 10 touchdown catches.
Ball State leads the MAC in total offense (455.8 yards per game) and scoring (37.7); Buffalo is seventh in total offense (387.2) and third in scoring (30.2).
A few numbers: While the teams seem to be even on offense, BSU has a big statistical edge on defense. The Cardinals finished first in fewest points allowed (16.7) and fourth in total defense (351.8 ypg) in the conference. Buffalo was seventh in points allowed (27.8) and 11th in total defense (400.4 ypg).
Ball State has won 11 of its 12 games this season by double-digit margins and has not trailed at the half. Buffalo has three wins in overtime and another by two points in regulation this season.
Don’t count on penalties costing BSU. It ranks first in the nation for fewest penalties (2.5) and fewest penalty yards (25.33) per game.
For comparison’s sake against the MAC’s two other best teams, Ball State beat Central Michigan by a touchdown and Western Michigan by 23 points. Both were in the season’s final two weeks. Buffalo missed a potential game-winning field goal on the final play against CMU and the following week coughed up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter to WMU.
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Buffalo (7-5, 8-4 ATS) vs. Ball State (12-0, 8-2-1 ATS) (at Detroit)
The Cardinals will try to stay perfect on the season and claim their first conference title in 12 years when they take on surprising Buffalo at Ford Field in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference championship game.
The Cardinals captured the MAC’s West Division title and capped off its first perfect regular season since 1949 with last Tuesday’s 45-22 home win over Western Michigan as 10-point favorites in the regular-season finale. Junior RB MiQuale Lewis scored three TDs in the victory, giving him a school-record 20 this year, and he leads the MAC with 1,570 yards rushing and ranks fourth in the nation at 130.8 yards per game.
Ball State’s high-powered offense is averaging 37.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the nation as the Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in all but one contest this season. Junior QB Nate Davis is sixth in the nation with a 169.3 passer rating, having thrown for 3.095 yards, 25 TDs and six interceptions. With Davis at the helm, Ball State outgained all but one opponent this year.
One week after clinching the MAC East Division with an overtime victory at Bowling Green, Buffalo had its five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) halted a week ago, losing to Kent State 24-21 as a nine-point home favorite. Junior RB James Starks ran for 1,226 yards this season to break the Bulls’ school single-season record, and he ranks sixth in the nation at 122.6 rushing yards per game. Junior WR Naaman Roosevelt has caught 86 passes for a MAC-leading 1,196 yards and 10 TDs, and QB Drew Willy has passed for 2,885 yards with 22 TDs and just five INTs.
Including last week’s narrow loss to Kent State, Buffalo has played seven games this year decided by three points or fewer or in overtime.
The Bulls average 30.2 points and 387.2 yards per game (145 rushing ypg), but tonight they face a Ball State defense giving up just 16.7 points and 351.8 yards per contest (145.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, the Cardinals run up against a Buffalo D that’s yielding 27.8 points and 400.4 yards per game (159.3 rushing ypg). In fact, the Bulls have surrendered at least 24 points in nine of their 12 games this year.
Ball State dominated Buffalo in their conference meeting last season, winning 49-14 as a 14-point home favorite. The Cardinals have won four straight over the Bulls dating back to 2000, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Ball State outrushed Buffalo 274-83 in last year’s blowout, and Davis threw for 233 yards and three TD and added 44 rushing yards on just five carries.
Buffalo has lost eight straight games against ranked opponents, but the Bulls have covered eight straight as an underdog (6-0 ATS this year as a pup), and they’re on additional ATS runs of 10-4 in MAC action, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-0 away from home this season. Ball State also is riding several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 6-2 in MAC play, 5-1 away from home this year and 20-8 against teams with a winning record.
The over trends dominate for the Bulls, including 6-1 overall, 20-8 in MAC games and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Conversely, Ball State carries “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win. Lastly, all four meetings this decade between these teams have flown over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE and OVER
Gametimeplays.com
NCAAF Today
Ball State is 12-0, winning every game but one by 12+ points; Cardinals hammered Buffalo 49-14 LY (-16), outgaining Bulls 507-219 and scoring TD on defense. Ball covered three of four overall in series. Buffalo is 6-0 as underdog away from home this year, Cardinals are 4-1 as road favorite in '08. Overall, Ball State is 8-2-1 vs spread this year, Buffalo 8-4. Four of Bulls' last seven games went OT; underdogs covered nine of their last eleven games, with over 5-1-1 in their last seven.
Tips and Trends
MAC Championship: #12 Ball State vs. Buffalo
Ball State (-14.5, O/U 62): Ball State has one of the most balanced offenses in the MAC. RB MiQuale Lewis leads the MAC in rushing yards with 1,570 and is on pace to finish among the top five single-season rushers all-time in the league. QB Nate Davis is second in the conference in passing, averaging 257.9 yards per game. The Cardinals’ greatest area of improvement this season has been on defense. Ball State leads the MAC in scoring defense (16.7 points per game) and ranks fourth in the league in total defense.
Ball State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games overall.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Ball State’s last 7 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side Play of the Day)
Buffalo: The Bulls have the potential to score in bunches and during their recent five-game winning streak, Buffalo has averaged 40 points a game. QB Drew Willy has been steady all season and RB James Starks, as he has the last two seasons, got better in November. On defense, while the Bulls force turnovers, they also allowed 31.6 points over the last five games. The defense will need to play much better versus a Ball State offense that averages 456 yards and 37.7 points per game.
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 conference games.
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Key Injuries - DL Dane Robinson (thumb) is questionable
PROJECTED SCORE: 21