JEFFERSONSPORTS
WASH -5.5
SIXTH SENSE
2% NEVADA -1
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Nevada 42 FRESNO ST. (-1.0) 32
Fresno State got defensive tackle Jon Monga back in the lineup last week, but the Bulldogs’ defense was even worse than normal in allowing 7.5 yards per rushing play and 6.4 yards per play to a horrible Louisiana Tech offense that would average just 4.9 yppl at home against an average defense. Fresno is now allowing 5.8 yards per rushing play and 6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp and 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit will have no chance of slowing down a potent Nevada attack that has averaged 322 yards per game on the ground at 7.2 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and 6.9 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl). Only the good defensive units of Texas Tech and Missouri have held the Nevada attack below 7.0 yppl and my math model projects 558 total yards at 8.0 yppl for the Wolf Pack in this game. Nevada’s defense is susceptible to the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppp against an average team), but the Wolf Pack are very good against the run (3.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Fresno likes to run the ball. The Bulldogs aren’t likely to run the ball as much tonight because they won’t have much success when they do run without their top two backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller, who have combined for 1140 yards at 6.2 ypr this season. Third string back Anthony Harding is a good runner (459 yards at 6.4 ypr), but there is no proven talent behind him and Harding struggled last week in the Bulldogs’ loss to Louisiana Tech when he was asked to carry the load (just 47 yards on 14 carries). Throwing more will help the Bulldogs against a poor Nevada secondary, but Fresno isn’t as good as Nevada offensively and my math model calls for 459 yards at 6.9 yppl. While those are very good offensive numbers, they don’t compare favorably with the 558 yards at 8.0 yppl that Nevada is expected to gain. Nevada isn’t nearly as good in special teams as Fresno, but the Wolf Pack have an edge in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Wolf Pack by 4 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Nevada applies to a very good 93-39-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 22-4 ATS when applying to underdogs. Fresno, meanwhile, applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset road loss at Louisiana Tech. Fresno has dropped 7 consecutive games to the point spread and the Bulldogs have a tough time getting back on track once things start going poorly. In fact, Pat Hill’s team is now 11-27-2 ATS as a favorite of 2 points or more following a spread loss, including 4-21-1 ATS since 2002 (0-6 ATS this season). Nevada is coming off a loss in their last game too, but the Wolf Pack are 10-1 ATS the last 4 seasons in games following a straight up and ATS loss (4-1 ATS on the road). This game is a nice mix of good line value with a good situation and a statistical match-up indicator and those types of games have been good bets over the years. I’ll take Nevada in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points. Nevada would be a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 (at -1.15 odds or less).
Brandon Lang
5 Dime Nevada/Fresno State OVER
5 Dime Teaser Fresno State/Over
5 Dime Suns
FREE - Hawks
LVTR
Dallas-Anaheim OVER 5.5
NY Knicks - Wash UNDER 210
Free Play: Nevada -2
FRANK PATRON
7500 UNIT FRIDAY
NEVADA WOLFPACK -1
Oscarxena Sports
Fresno State +1 1/2 (3 Unit Play)
This game will pit offensive strength against defensive weakness on both sides and the team that effectively plays the better overall defense should emerge victorious tonight. Fresno State entered this season with BCS aspirations but those were quickly dashed by a tough home loss to Wisconsin and due to injuries on their defense they have just been unable to control the run. That could be trouble against an explosive Nevada running attack that ranks #2 in the country. If this is the case then why am I recommending a play on Fresno State here? The answer is because Fresno State has a pretty explosive offense of their own and their strength is in the passing game and that spells trouble for Nevada who is the worst ranked passing defense in the NCAA this year. These teams may trade points but I have more faith in Fresno State who is playing in front of their home crowd for only the fourth time this year and Pat Hill should have his troops primed for tonight's nationally televised contest. Fresno State has a couple of their top RB's out and I think that affected them last week on the road but they should have that problem settled here tonight. Fresno State also has much better special teams and in a game where I can get points that could be the issue that settles the game. I like Fresno State at home and actually would lean to this game Under believe it or not even though both team's offenses are much better than the defense but I am making only a play on the Bulldogs at home. By the way you can probably wait and get a higher number here as it seems that Nevada keeps climbing as I type this.
Rocketman
4* Miami Heat
Insider Sports Report
4* New Orleans -7.5 Range: -5.5 to -9
3* Golden St. -6.5 Range: -5 to -8.5
3* Fresno St. +1 Range: +2.5 to -1.5
Any early scoop on Al DeMarco's Saturday 15 dimer on 'Bama/LSU?
Thanks in adance
NSA
20* Nevada -1
10* Nevada/Fresno St Over 70.5
10* Denver -1
10* San Antonio -5.5
10* Utah -11.5
10* Toronto +3
Bob Akmens
10* Phoenix -4.5
10* New Orleans -7.5
10* Buffalo/Atlanta Over 5.5
Charlies
500* Nevada / Fresno St Over 71
30* Fresno St +1
20* Golden St -6'
20* New Orleans -7'
10* Utah -11
Chicago +4 free play
Nick Bogdanovich
Small Nevada/Fresno State UNDER 71 Points
Small Warriors -7
Small Raptors/Hawks OVER 183 Points
ATS Lock College
4 units Nevada -2