Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
Cincinnati (-3.5) 30 LOUISVILLE 17 (Friday)
Cincinnati is starting to show what a quality team they are while Louisville is starting to show how mediocre they are. The Bearcats are coming off convincing wins over South Florida and at West Virginia while Louisville has been horrible in losing consecutive home games to Syracuse (as a 13 point favorite) and Pittsburgh (by a 7-41 count). The loss to Pitt actually wasn’t as bad as the score indicates, as the Cardinals were -5 in turnover margin in that game (although they were out-gained 4.4 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Panthers). Louisville is better than they’ve shown the last two weeks, but they are a mediocre team that rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense with QB Hunter Cantwell in the game (5.4 yppl against Division 1A foes that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while rating as just average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at quarterback (Cincy struggled offensively relative to the defenses they faced in the 3 games Pike missed) and the Bearcats are an outstanding 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Cincy has been particularly good defensively since giving up 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahama early in the season, as they’ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 7 games since then (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The 40 points the Bearcats allowed to Connecticut prior to their current 2 game win streak was the result of a -6 in turnover margin and not bad defense (they allowed just 4.8 yppl in that game). In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats should win the turnover battle, as Pike has thrown just 3 interceptions on 161 pass attempts (1.9%) while Louisville quarterback Cantwell has thrown 11 picks on 261 passes (4.2%). Cincinnati is also known for their ball-hawking secondary and they’ve intercepted 12 passes in 9 games while Louisville’s passive secondary has picked off just 5 passes and has been without a pick in 5 of their 8 Division 1A games. Cincinnati hasn’t been as good as their numbers because they are randomly at -9 in fumbles lost margin, losing 11 fumbles while recovering just 2. That’s just random bad luck, as 90% of fumble difference is random in college football. My math model gives the Bearcats a 58.9% chance of covering at -3 ½ points and a 57.8% chance of covering at -4 points. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at –4 or less, for 3-Stars at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) and I’d consider the Bearcats a Strong Opinion from -4 ½ to -5 ½ points.
Frank Patron
5000 Unit Big East Lock
Cincinnati Bearcats -4
Brandon Lang
5 Dime Louisville
FREE - Cincinnati/Louisville OVER
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
BIG EAST COLLEGE FOOTBALL ROAST OF THE YEAR
Cincinnati -3.5
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Oklahoma City +8.5
Miami -6.5
Milwaukee / Memphis Under 190
Portland / New Orleans Under 192
Allen Eastman
$800.00 Cincinnati (-3.5) over Louisville
If the Cardinals are bad enough to lose to Syracuse they are bad enough to lose to Cincinnati. This Bearcats teams is very physical at the line of scrimmage and reminds me of the Kentucky team that destroyed the Cardinals at home this year. Cincy is 19-9-2 ATS overall and is 12-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in this series and I think that we are getting solid odds on a short number here.
ATS Lock CLub
3 units Cincy -4
4 units Blazers +8
4 units Mavs -1
4 units Detroit (NCAAB) +23.5
ATS Financial Package
3 units Cincy/Lou Under 47.5
3 units Jazz -4
3 units C.Mich -3
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
CINCINNATI vs LOUISVILLE
Play: CINCINNATI -4
Rocketman
New Jersey / Washington
Play: 4* New Jersey +170
New Jersey is 4-1 SU and ATS at Washington last 3 years. Devils are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Devils are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. Southeast. Devils are 35-16-1 in their last 52 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Capitals are 15-37-1 in their last 53 Friday games. Capitals are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 12-32 in their last 44 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Devils are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington. Devils are 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings. Road team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. We'll play New Jersey for 4 units tonight!
St Louis / Chicago
Play: 4* St Louis +175
Blues are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Central. Blackhawks are 53-112-8 in their last 173 games playing on 1 days rest. Blackhawks are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Central. Blackhawks are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. We'll play St Louis for 4 units tonight!
Big Al
3* Hornets
1* Memphis
1* Louisville
DCI
Season
Straight Up: 74-39 (.655)
ATS: 56-62 (.475)
ATS Vary Units: 210-177 (.543)
Over/Under: 71-48 (.597)
Over/Under Vary Units: 245-178 (.579)
Utah 105, CHARLOTTE 98
INDIANA 103, Philadelphia 98
Washington 95, MIAMI 94
Atlanta 99, NEW JERSEY 96
NEW YORK 106, Oklahoma City 99
BOSTON 109, Denver 98
MEMPHIS 106, Milwaukee 103
NEW ORLEANS 99, Portland 89
DALLAS 100, Orlando 99
SAN ANTONIO 89, Houston 86
Phoenix 113, SACRAMENTO 109
L.A. LAKERS 102, Detroit 93
What does his ATS vary units mean? Anybody know?
Lockoftheday
NBA Lock of the month
Houston Rockets -5
Nick Bogdanovich
Medium Cincinnati -4
Bob Akmens
10* Ul Monroe -3.5
10* New Mexico -26.5
10* Clemson Over 142
10* Pacers -1
10* Carolina -115
RAS
Hawaii