LENNY STEVENS
10* Orlando Magic
10* Denver Nuggets
Dave Malinsky
5* Cal Irvine +6.5
4* Chattanooga +13
4* Den/Lakers Under 205.5
4* S Ill / UCLA Under 126
Keith Martin Sports
Tennessee -10
RAS
USC/Chattanooga Under 148
DR BOB
***BOWLING GREEN (-3.5) 33 Buffalo 20
I went against Buffalo last week with a Best Bet on Akron -3 and that game went just like I thought it would with the Zips averaging 6.6 yards per play while Buffalo was held in check at 5.0 yppl. The problem was 2 lost fumbles by Akron and zero turnovers by Buffalo and the Zips lost in 4 overtimes despite clearly being the better team from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has been pretty lucky this year in being +11 in fumbles lost margin, recovering 16 opponent's fumbles and losing just 5 all season. My research shows that fumbles are 90% random in college football, as only 10% of past fumble margin is predictive. That means that Buffalo isn't likely to be getting 3 ½ points randomly this game as they've been getting all season (a turnover is worth about 3 ½ points in college football). Bowling Green, by the way, is -4 in fumble margin, so they've had a bit of bad luck and the difference in fumble margin of these two teams has made Buffalo overrated and Bowling Green a bit underrated heading into this game. Bowling Green is favored by 3 ½ points, which is the standard home field advantage in college football, but the Falcons are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage and are thus likely to win by 4 points or more. Buffalo is pretty good offensively by MAC standards, averaging 5.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Bowling Green, however, is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), so the Falcons have a 0.2 yppl edge when Buffalo has the ball. Bowling Green is 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but Buffalo's defense has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense, so Bowling Green has a 0.4 yppl advantage when they're on offense. My math model projects Buffalo with a slight edge in turnovers and the Falcons are better in special teams. My math model gives Bowling Green a 54.5% chance of covering at -3 ½ points, but that percentage is much higher given that Buffalo applies to a very negative 9-51 ATS road letdown situation that has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line. I'll take Bowling Green in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
BRIAN KING
50 Dimes Bowling Green -4
Bob Akmens
CBB
10* Duke -13.5
NBA
10* Spurs -4.5
10* Lakers -8.5
NCAAF
10* SJ State +3
NHL
10* Buffalo -145
Tom Fresse
20* Wac GOM
San Jose St is in a 40-16 ATS System that says to Play On any team who is off a conference loss by 21 or more points if they have won between 51% to 60% of their games this year. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS their last 14 lined home games. Fresno St is 1-9 ATS in all games this year and they are 0-7 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games and they are 0-8 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses. 20* WAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST
IndianCowboy
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Pick: 3 units Under 209.5 (POD)
I like the under here for several reasons. For one, you might already be aware but Jamal Crawford has been traded to Golden State for Al Harrington. That certainly makes for an interesting dynamic for this game. Usually it takes a team a bit prior to that individual getting set with his new team and gel with them. Take for example A.I. when the Pistons lost to the Nets in game one of his new start with his team. Such is the case here. The Bucks are good folks. Remember, the Bucks beat the Knicks in game 1 earlier this year. There were many that got onto to the Knicks for that loss, but the Bucks are better than most people give them credit for. They defeated the Knicks 94-86 in that game on the road. The Bucks are a defensive team - heck, they held the Celtics to 102 points at home in overtime. They held San Antonio to 78 points and Phoenix to 104 points in regulation. Why can they not hold the Knicks to around a 100 if less considering they have a new rotation so to speak tonight. Plus, the Bucks come off a tough road trip which included Utah and Denver. The Bucks play overs on the road and unders at home as it is much more of their pace. Look for this game to be around the high 190's.
Mississippi Rebels @ Utah Utes
Pick: 3 units Utah Utes +2
Yes, I know the Utes are playing an SEC team but as you know I follow the SEC very closely. I need to have very good reasoning and motivation for a particular team to make a play as I simply do not make many plays. Having said that, did you know that Utah has a new coach in Coach Boylen. He used to be the Assistant Coach at Michigan State under Tom Izzo and was with the Houston Rockets before that as assistant coach when this team won their respective championships. The guy is just 41 years old! He is a great coach and has great wisdom of the game. Utah is 1-1 and this is the first big game of the year at home and you better believe that the 10th winningest program in college basketball history will be fired up for this game in a big way. I look for these young Utah players, 5 of which are freshman recruits, as well as the fourt returning starters to make a difference today. Remember, this is this Ole Miss's squad's first road game. These two teams have no history of playing each other and although Ole Miss is 2-0, they were both home wins against South Alabama and Arkansas State. Utah just destroyed Wisconsin Green-Bay 79-60. Let's roll with the Running Utes as if they get a lead early they might not just look back in this game as they will look to bury the Rebels early.
Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Jose State Spartans
Pick: 3 units San Jose State Spartans +3.5
You ever wonder why some lines are 3.5? Gosh, why not just make it an even field goal right? Well, it is because Vegas increases their edge. In essence, an increase in the shaved dice in order for them to win more likely when you butt heads. Consequently, that is what you have here. Look, would you rather take a Fresno State team that although is 4-1 on the road, still hits the highway for a nationally televised game at night, with 2/3rds of the public on them, who has MISSED 9 STRAIGHT COVERS, beat La Tech by a field goal when favored by -4.5, beat Utah State by 2 when favored by 16, beat UCLA by 5 when favored by a touchdown and who beat Toledo by 1 when favored by 6 - or would you rather bet on a San Jose State team that is not backed by the public, who is at home for this game, who has revenge from a 0-30 to this team last year, who comes off an ugly 17-41 loss at Nevada and who has a top 30 defense in many categories in the league? The bottom line is, let's take the better defense, as good defense has the edge over good offense in my opinion, plus tack on the fact of the home field advantage and revenge with Fresno State one of the worst cover teams of 2008-2009, I will gladly take San Jose State to get it done here at home. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS when following a game they allowed more than 40 points.
ROOT
Chairman- San Jose St
Millionaire- Cal Irvine
Insiders Circle- Middle Tennessee
Savannah Sports
NCAA Football
4 Units Fresno State -3
3 Units Miami-Ohio +3
Seabass
NCAAF
30* San Jose St
NBA
20*Boston
20*Dallas
20*Charlotte
NCAAB
30*Mississippi
100* Steam Bowling Green
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
4 STAR SELECTION
SAN JOSE STATE +3½ over Fresno State
Teams in the Western Athletic Conference continue to jockey for possible postseason positioning, as the Bulldogs pay a visit to the Spartans Friday night. Fresno State is off a lackluster 24-17 win over New Mexico State last weekend. Meanwhile, San Jose State has dropped from first place in the WAC into a tie for fourth with Hawaii at 4-3 following a 41-17 thumping by Nevada last weekend.
The Bulldogs started off the season with hopes of winning the WAC and being a BCS buster, but since suffering a loss to Wisconsin the team has struggled greatly. Injuries have also decimated this team as:
RB Ryan Mathews has missed three games and parts of three others, including all of last week's victory against New Mexico State . Mathews is doubtful;
RB Lonyae Miller had two rushes, including one fumble, against New Mexico State . He aggravated the injury in pre-game warm-ups. Pat Hill said he looked hesitant;
WR Marlon Moore has missed five games and parts of two others;
LG Devan Cunningham is questionable for San Jose State after missing last week's game;
Marvin Haynes, DL Chris Lewis and DL Logan Harrell are all doubtful;
TE Issac Kinter could be out for the season, Hill said;
KR/CB A.J. Jefferson is questionable for Friday night's game. He missed last week's game with New Mexico State .
These injuries have hurt Fresno State’s running game and allowed teams to run wild on them, which brings us to one of our handicapping strategies that applies here, as we like to play AGAINST a favorite that is allowing more than 5 yards per rush on the season from October on.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. That’s exactly what has happened here, as the Bulldogs are now favored by more than a FG as we release this Star Selection.
The Bulldogs also have some very ugly numbers staring them in the face here, as they are 0-18 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a favorite of 2-28 points off an ATS loss/push, 0-8 ATS vs. opponents off a SU loss since last year, 0-8 ATS (-12.4 ppg) on the road and not an underdog of 14+ points off 2 home games vs. an opponent off a SU & ATS loss, 0-9 ATS the last 9 games this year, and 0-9 ATS as a favorite going back to last season.
Their difficulty in covering a spread since the season’s first game has qualified them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a road favorite off 6 ATS losses vs. an opponent not seeking revenge for a SU & ATS loss as an underdog of more than 9 points in each of the past 2 seasons.
Since 1996, these teams are 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average. The Bulldogs were the most recent active “Play AGAINST” team in their meeting with Louisiana Tech a few weeks ago. Fresno was a road favorite of 4½ points, but lost 38-35.
Meanwhile, San Jose State is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog and not off 3 SU & ATS wins. Fresno State is one of their most-hated rivals. We look for the Spartans to regain their from earlier in the season and give the Bulldogs fits here. The host is 5-0 ATS (+10 ppg) in this series when not an underdog of 26+ points, and we look for that streak to continue with an outright home underdog victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SAN JOSE STATE 34 FRESNO STATE 30
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
6000* COLLEGE HOOPS INSIDERS WINNER
Notre Dame -23
Ben Burns
Tampa Bay Lightning