ASA
3* Ohio U pk
3* Nebraska -18
Stu Feiner
Stu's Friday College Football No Brainers
Akron (58) at Temple (-2')
The Temple Owls are playing some of their best football of the season right now and while a win today over Akron won’t put them in the MAC title game or even make them bowl eligible, it would be significant. A victory today by the Owls at Lincoln Financial Field will be their fifth of the season, more than this program has enjoyed in a campaign since 1990. This team has a lot to play for and they will post a big number against this woeful Akron defense as the Owls cover this small price. Temple QB Adam DiMichele is now fully 100 percent healthy and playing at a very high level right now. In fact, he’s tossed nine touchdown passes in the past two weeks and surly will have a big day against this Zips’ stop unit that is ranked last in the MAC in total defense, pass efficiency defense and sacks. Akron has mustered a measly nine sacks in 11 games this year and DiMichele should have all day to throw this afternoon. After scoring 55 points in last week’s win over Eastern Michigan, this Temple team is brimming with confidence and ready to put on a show at Senior Day as the Owls are 9-5 ATS at home the last three years. With big-play WRs ion Bruce Francis and Jason Harper, the Owls will be able to effectively move the football at will against an Akron defense that has allowed a whopping 194 points in its last five games (38.8 ppg). The Zips’ kick coverage has been lacking, as well, as in last week’s loss to Buffalo, they allowed 296 yards and two scores on 10 kick and punt returns. Now Akron can move the football and they’ll have their share of success today, too. But it will be too little too late as it was last week when they had some late garbage TDs to make the loss to the Bulls look respectable. Temple’s defense is at least decent (only allowed 68 yards rushing last week to the Eagles) and they’re ranked a respectable 43rd in the country in red zone defense and 60th in scoring defense. Those are much better numbers than the Zips. Bottom line here is a senior QB in DiMichele playing his final game against a horrible pass defense (two breakups, no sacks the last two games) in Akron. The Zips, who lost at home to the Owls last year, are just 2-8 ATS the last three years in games where the line is from +3 to -3 (including 0-3 ATS this year). They don’t win the close ones and they won’t win this game either as Temple gets the job done at home and covers this small price.
TEMPLE (-2') 75 Dimes
Mississippi State (+18') at Ole Miss (46)
In Oxford this afternoon, this is just too many points for a banged up Ole Miss team to cover in what will be a letdown game after last week’s big win at LSU. This is the Egg Bowl and a rivalry game and a spirited Bulldog team will stay inside this inflated price. This is traditionally a tightly-contested game as this only the second time in the last 23 years this line has been more than 8-and-a-half-point spread. The Rebels won in Baton Rouge last Saturday, but make no mistake, that was a hard-hitting, bruised-muscle type of game. QB Jevan Sneed, who has been prone to turnovers all year long, was sacked late in the first half last week and injured his shoulder. He’s ready to go today after taking it easy in practice, but this thing is still bothering him and he’s one hit away from being taken from the game. In addition, the Rebels best cornerback, Marshay Green, is also nursing a big-time heel spur injury. He’s definitely not 100 percent this afternoon and might not go at all. Yes, the Rebels are the better team, but the Bulldogs (14-11 ATS as a dog and 9-6 ATS on the road the last three years) are playing with a lot of confidence after last week’s comeback win over Arkansas. If there’s one thing the MSU team has demonstrated this year it’s been resolve and a never-quit attitude. They hung tough at LSU (lost by 10) and have had road wins in recent years at Alabama and Auburn. They’ve had a lot of adversity this year, but last week down two TDs to Arkansas, they found a way to come back and win. They beat the Rebs last year in Starkville, lost by a FG two years ago in Oxford and are treating today’s game as their bowl game. Last week they had their best offensive game of the year with 445 yards and 31 points and demonstrated a strong running game (TB Anthony Dixon ran for 179 yards) to go along with an effective short passing game. Ole Miss scored a huge win at Florida earlier this year, but then came back home the next Saturday and fell to South Carolina. They won’t lose today, but the 24 seniors on the Mississippi State roster will make sure the Bulldogs play competitively throughout as the Bulldogs will stay inside this number.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+18') 30 Dimes
Brian King
West Virginia (49') at Pitt (+3)
PITT (+3) 40 Dimes
Akron (58) at Temple (-2')
TEMPLE (-2') 20 Dimes
UCLA (45) at Arizona State (-9')
ARIZONA STATE (-9') 20 Dimes
Opposite Action Plays
MISSISSIPPI STATE
JB Sports
TEMPLE
Bob Balfe
COLORADO
Rocketman
Miami @ Phoenix
Play: 3* Miami +8 1/2
Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Heat are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Pacific. Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Heat are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight!
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
5 STAR SELECTION
UTEP +5 over EAST CAROLINA
The East Division Champion Pirates host the Miners early on Friday in a Conference-USA matchup. UTEP is coming off a hard-fought 42-37 setback at Houston, snapping the team's two-game winning streak. As for East Carolina, they come into this matchup with five wins in their last six games, although most of those have been by the thinnest of margins. In their last outing, they grabbed a 17-13 victory over lowly UAB to claim the East Division in the conference.
UTEP will rely heavily on the pass here, as the Miners come into this game averaging over 280 ypg through the air. Out of the 41 touchdowns scored by this unit, 32 have come via the pass, as QB Trevor Vittatoe has been sensational throughout the year. Vittatoe has thrown for nearly 3000 yards and 31 scores against just six interceptions. The team racked up 464 total yards last week in the close loss at Houston, but Vittatoe was again outstanding, throwing for 362 yards and four scores.
What has hurt the Miners throughout the year has been the team's poor play defensively. The defense has forced plenty of big plays, and comes into this contest with 26 takeaways and 23 sacks, so they will be looking for some momentum changers here against East Carolina. There are some terrific offenses in the C-USA that has pushed UTEP’s defensive numbers up; however, they will not be facing a great offense here.
The Pirates head into this matchup averaging less than 330 total ypg, and that has led to less than 21 ppg. The team has not been able to put forth a consistent effort on the ground, which is why ECU is netting just 116.5 rushing ypg on 3.2 ypc. The passing attack has not been much better, as Pat Pinkney has thrown for just over 2,000 yards and nine scores against seven interceptions. Against the Blazers, a horrible defensive team, East Carolina scored just 17 points and finished with only 295 total yards. Pinkney threw for 222 yards and one score in the contest, but had two more interceptions.
The Pirates success can certainly be credited to the team's efforts defensively, as the unit is limiting the opposition to just over 325 total ypg, and 20 ppg. East Carolina has done a solid job against the run, holding opponents to just 140 ypg on 3.9 ypc; however, the Miners will come in here and put the ball in the air frequently.
After throwing two touchdown passes and three interceptions in the first three games, Vittatoe has thrown an amazing 29 touchdowns and three picks over the last eight contests.
Overall, the Pirates are the better team; however, the motivation for each team will be vastly different.
We like to play ON a "bubble team" vs. an opponent in or likely to be in a bowl game or a foe that doesn't have a chance of a bowl game in a non-rivalry game.
Teams fighting for bowl eligibility should be much more motivated than those teams already in and just trying to stay healthy, and against opponents that are already thinking about next year. Here, we have a UTEP team needing 1 more win to qualify for a bowl game, while East Carolina just wants to stay healthy and prepare for next weekend’s conference championship game.
These teams played a close game last year at UTEP, with the Miners coming up on the short end of a 45-42 game. They will be looking to get over that hump here, as they are 11-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as a road underdog seeking revenge for a SU loss from the previous season.
The Miners also qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In its Last Road Game from Game 11 on, play ON a non-Saturday conference team (not a favorite of 14+ points or underdog of 6+ points) with 5+ days rest off a road game vs. an opponent not off 3 favorite SU losses.
Teams in this spot are a spotless 14-0 SU & ATS since the mid-1980s, blasting the pointspread by 2 TDs per game on average.
Also, a team that has done very well offensively in its last 4 games have done well against a team that has not enjoyed an offensive explosion in its last 4 games. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
Play ON an underdog off scoring 29+ points in each of its last 4 games vs. an opponent scoring less than 31 points in each of its last 4 games and not 3 SU wins.
The Miners also are active for this situation that has been perfect since at least 1980, going 11-0 ATS.
East Carolina has won four of its last five games despite a series of serious injuries on both sides of the ball. This week's injury report, for example, lists 10 players as out, four more as questionable and four as probable. Again, there’s no reason to push these players in what amounts to a meaningless game for the Pirates with the C-USA Championship coming up.
While East Carolina has won 4 of their last 5, they continue to struggle covering the number, as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. opponents not off a SU & ATS loss as a non-Saturday home underdog.
We look for the Miners to pull ahead in the 2nd half in their bid for the upset win that would make them bowl eligible.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UTEP 28 EAST CAROLINA 27
3 STAR SELECTION
Kent +9 over BUFFALO
The East Division Champion Bulls close out their regular-season schedule early on Friday when they host the Golden Flashes in a Mid-American Conference tilt. It has been a rough season for Kent, who head into their season-finale with eight losses. As for Buffalo, they come into this matchup riding a five-game winning streak. In their last outing, they grabbed a remarkable, 40-34 overtime win at Bowling Green. The victory earned the team its first-ever outright MAC Division title.
Kent State has relied on their ground game this season, as they are averaging 223 rushing ypg. Overall the Flashes are producing nearly 400 total ypg, and that has led to 26 ppg. Quarterback Julian Edelman has been "Mr. Everything" for Kent, as the talented QB has thrown for over 1,700 yards and 12 scores, while also leading the ground attack with over 1,200 yards and 13 more touchdowns.
As for the Bulls, they are one of the more balanced teams in the MAC, and come into this matchup averaging 387 total ypg, which has led to 31 ppg. James Starks has been the main option out of the backfield for Buffalo, as the tailback has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. The passing attack has been led by Drew Willy, who is completing 64% of his throws for over 2,600 yards and 21 scores against just five interceptions.
Like Kent, where Buffalo has struggled is on the defensive side of the football, as the team is currently allowing 28 ppg on 398 total ypg. Buffalo is allowing over 250 ypg through the air and opponents are averaging more than 145 rushing ypg.
There is not a lot at stake for either team in this game; however, Kent figures to be the team more motivated to win this contest, as this is their game of the season and an opportunity for them to measure themselves against a MAC Division Champ.
Since Buffalo has already clinched a berth in the conference championship game in 1 week, coach Turner Gill is expected to limit the number of snaps for his starters.
Flashes coach Doug Martin feels strongly that his senior quarterback Julian Edelman deserves consideration for All-MAC honors. Without his top running back for the middle third of the season, Edelman put this team on his back and made them competitive. It's hard to imagine how the season would have gone without Edelman. This is the last chance for Martin to put his prized quarterback on display, and we expect him to do just that.
Kent’s 2-game winning streak was snapped in their last outing; however, they are 3-0 ATS in conference games this season off a conference SU loss, so we expect them to rebound here and play well.
The Flashes have been favored in the 3 previous meetings with the Bulls, have lost those 3 games, and now find themselves a big underdog. This actually qualifies Kent for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which reads:
Play ON a conference underdog seeking revenge for 3 favorite SU losses vs. an opponent not off a SU win & ATS win of more than 12 points.
Just since 2003, these teams are a rock solid 12-1 SU (+8.1 ppg) & 13-0 ATS (+14.9 ppg).
Meanwhile, Buffalo is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite vs. opponents playing with revenge and the Bulls qualify for another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a non-Saturday home/neutral site favorite off 2 underdog SU wins (not 2 non-conference home games).
The teams in this spot are 0-10 ATS ALL TIME, failing to cover the spread by more than 16 points per game on average!
With Buffalo likely taking it a bit easy, especially in the second half, and Kent looking for a strong finish against a quality opponent, we expect the Flashes to make this a tight game and easily cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BUFFALO 28 KENT 27
4 STAR SELECTION
TOLEDO +1½ over Bowling Green
Tom Amstutz will coach his final game for the Rockets Friday afternoon when his team hosts the Falcons in a Mid-American Conference battle at the Glass Bowl. Bowling Green saw its two-game winning streak come to an end in their last outing with a devastating, 40-34 overtime loss to Buffalo. The defeat dropped the Falcons out of contention for a MAC Division Title and a bowl invite. Toledo will be closing the book on a forgettable season, as the team has dropped eight of its 11 games to this point. This will be the last game for coach Amstutz, who will remain with Toledo, but as part of the alumni office, so the Rockets will be looking to send him out a winner.
Bowling Green has been mediocre at best on offense this season, as the team is averaging just 344 total ypg, and that has led to 27 ppg. Quarterback Tyler Sheehan has been the main source of production for this squad, as the signal caller has completed 67% of his throws for over 2,300 yards.
On the other side of the football the Falcons have had trouble trying to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding Bowling Green for 166 ypg, and out of the 34 touchdowns allowed by the Falcons, 21 have come on the ground. Overall this defense is allowing 357 total ypg and that has led to 24 ppg. Bowling Green has also struggled to make big plays, forcing just 18 turnovers, while collecting only 20 sacks.
The Rockets have also enjoyed limited success on offense this season, as the team is currently producing slightly more yards per game than are the Falcons, which has led to 24 ppg. Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins have formed a nice tandem in the backfield, as Williams has rushed for 857 yards and six scores, while Collins has rumbled for 676 yards and five TDs. QB Aaron Opelt has completed 61% of his throws for over 2,100 yards and 12 scores against five interceptions. In the team's recent matchup against Miami-Ohio, the Rockets erupted for 377 rushing yards en route to a convincing victory. Williams was sensational in the contest, rumbling for a remarkable 330 yards and three touchdowns on an amazing 11.8 ypc.
The defense for Toledo has been the weak link, as it is currently surrendering 367 total ypg, which has led to 31 ppg. In the recent matchup against the RedHawks, the Rockets put forth one of their better efforts of the season, limiting Miami, Ohio, to just 271 total yards, including just 75 yards on 23 carries.
We have teams that will approach this game with entirely different mindsets. The Falcons will have a very hard time re-grouping from last week’s game.
"Our kids played their guts out. That crowd was pitiful. The fans that showed up, that's awesome, because they're the true fans. But our kids deserve much better than that. To be in a championship game with so much on the line, and not have anyone show up, that disgusts me." Bowling Green head coach Gregg Brandon on the crowd at Perry Stadium.
Facing a must-win game to have a chance for a Mid-American Conference East title, the Falcons brutally collapsed on its home field a week ago, dropping the double-overtime decision to Buffalo.
The Falcons led 27-7 with 13:16 remaining in regulation, but faltered on both sides of the ball as the Bulls rallied to secure their first division title since joining the MAC in 1999.
Bowling Green will not have much left in the tank here with so little to play for. We also note that they are 0-6 SU (-15.7 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) in non-Saturday games when not favored by more than 4 points.
The Falcons qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, showing that very small road favorites have been unable to recover after losing a game despite scoring at least 32 points. It states:
Play AGAINST a road favorite of 3 points or less/pick ‘em off a SU loss scoring 32+ points in its last game and not a SU win of 42+ points before that vs. an opponent not off a road SU & ATS loss as an underdog of 6+ points.
Going back 25+ seasons into the SportsDataBase, we find these teams are 0-18-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
On the other hand, Toledo is looking for a strong finish for their out-going coach. They enjoyed a big win last week, and we look for them to build on that showing and have another big effort here.
The Rockets have some very strong factors in their favor, as they are 8-0 ATS (+19.9 ppg) at home and not favored by more than 18 points when coming off a SU win scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 34 points, 5-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as a home underdog off a SU win, and 13-0 SU (+19.7 ppg) & 13-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) in their final home game with less than 12 days rest and not favored by more than 28 points all-time.
After a big confidence-building victory, home underdogs have done very well in recent seasons’ highlighted non-Saturday games. This is documented by another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog off a SU win of 19+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win.
Just since 2006, these teams are 12-0 ATS, crushing the spread by nearly 15 ppg on average.
Against a deflated Falcons team, we look for the Rockets to blast their way to another big victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TOLEDO 40 BOWLING GREEN 27
Jim Feist Turkey Shoot
CBB - *5 West Virginia -9
CFB - *5 Toledo +3
Early Platinum Release - Mississippi -19
BEN BURNS
I'm taking the points with FRESNO STATE. As you're aware, this is a huge game for the Broncos as they're looking to remain undefeated. Its also a very big game for the Bulldogs though, as they would love nothing more than to hand a hated conference rival its only loss. While Boise State is an excellent team, the Bulldogs are no slouches either. As usual Fresno State's non-conference slate was fairly challenging. The Bulldogs began their season by playing three of four road games with the lone home game coming vs. Wisconsin. They came up a field goal short vs. the Badgers but recorded road victories at Rutgers, Toledo and UCLA. A closer look reveals that the Broncos were an impressive 5-1 on the road and that the lone loss came by only a field goal. In fact, no team beat the Bulldogs by as many as two touchdowns this season. Now, with a line move in our favor, we're getting three (or more) TD's to work with. The Bulldogs scored 24 or more points in nine of 10 games this season. Only Wisconsin kept them below that mark and the Bulldogs defense responded by limiting the Badgers to only 13. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back victories. They've done it by going back to the basics - establishing a solid ground attack, getting productive special teams play and stopping their opponents from being able to run the ball. Indeed, the Bulldogs have been dominant against the run of late, holding their last two opponents to minus-14 yards rushing. The Broncos had their hands full vs. Nevada last week (won by 7) and I expect the Bulldogs to also give them a much tougher test than most are expecting. *Main Event
I'm taking the points with PITTSBURGH. You'll hear a lot of talk about "revenge" when people are discussing this game. That's because the Panthers upset the Mountaineers as four touchdown underdogs last season and that was the only thing that kept West Virginia from playing for the national title. That result has caused the majority of the betting public to want to back the revenge-minded visitors. This, in turn, has created excellent value with the home underdog. It's true that the Mountaineers would surely love to avenge that defeat. Indeed, this is the very definition of a "revenge" game. However, wanting to do something and actually doing it are often two entirely different matters. The Moutaineers couldn't beat the Panthers at Morgantown last season and winning at Pittsburgh certainly won't be easy. The Mountaineers arguably aren't as good as they were last season. Conversely, Pittsburgh is much better than it was last season. Last year, West Virginia entered the "Backyard Brawl" with a 10-1 record while Pittsburgh entered with a 4-7 mark. This year, both teams enter with identical 7-3 records. Yes, the Panthers are off a costly loss, falling by a touchdown at Cincinnati. That was on the road vs. what has proven to be an excellent Bearcats ballclub though. It was also just their second conference loss. Note that the Panthers responded with an upset road win (at Notre Dame) when they were coming off their only previous conference loss. Additionally, note that this is the Panthers' home finale and that they crushed Louisville 41-7 the last time they played on this field. While Wannestedt's Panthers haven't always been able to run up the score against weak opponents, even with last week's pointspread loss, they typically play well against good teams and are still a healthy 4-1 ATS the last five times they faced a team with a winning record. Looking at West Virginia and we find that the Mountaineers have faced the same two teams that Pittsburgh has in their past two games. Like the Panthers, the Mountaineers lost to Cincinnati while beating Louisville. West Virginia outscored the two opponents 58-47. Pittsburgh outscored the same two opponents 62-35. Yet, in large part because West Virginia won last week and Pittsburgh lost, the betting public has the idea that the Mountaineers are the team which is playing much better. It should be noted that West Virginia only had 16 first downs last week while Louisville had 26. This is just the second time that the Mountaineers have played back to back road games this season. They lost outright at Colorado the last time that they did so. That game was decided by a field goal and I wouldn't be surprised if this one comes down to the wire as well. Getting more than a field goal, let's back the talented home dog. *Annihilator
I'm taking the points with MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Rebels have had the better year and they come in playing very well. That being said, the Bulldogs are coming off a victory of their own and they'd love nothing more than to close out their season by upsetting their instate rivals. The line has climbed significantly from its opener and I feel that gives us excellent value with the visitors. While the offense came to life last game, the Bulldogs' defense has been solid all season. For the season, they're allowing just 22.8 points and 315 total yards per game. That can make covering more than 17 points against them a difficult task. The teams have split the last four series meetings. Mississippi's two victories during that stretch both came by 17 points or less and they came by an average of only 10. The last two meetings were both decided by three points and I look for this afternoon's to be much closer than most are expecting once again.
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. The Red Hawks have gone from being a slight favorite to being a slight underdog here. I disagree with that line move and expect Miami Ohio to emerge victorious. Note that the Red Hawks are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times that they were home underdogs of three points or less while the Bobcats are 0-2 SU/ATS as road favorites. During the same stretch, Ohio is a money-burning 6-15-2 ATS in 23 overall games with a line ranging from +3 to -3. Both teams have had forgettable seasons. However, the Red Hawks have the advantage of playing at home. While that hasn't been much of advantage for them this season, the fact that this is their home finale should provide plenty of motivation. Remember, this is a team with numerous seniors on its roster and one that entered this season expected to do big things. At the very least, the Miami seniors would like to end their careers on a high note. The Bobcats already won their home finale, so shouldn't be quite as determined to win here. The Redhawks, 13-5 their last 18 home finales, have lost back to back games in this series for the first time since the early 1980s. Look for them to give a huge effort, earning some payback for those losses and closing out the season on a winning note.
I'm taking the points with KENT STATE. The Bulls have had a great season. However, this is a tough spot for them. Not only are they coming off yet another overtime victory but they have already clinched the MAC East title and have a huge game with undefeated Ball State on deck. In fact, while I won't count it, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least some of the Buffalo starters see limited minutes. Either way, it will be hard to get up for lowly Kent State. While the Bulls have been winning, they haven't been blowing teams out. Last week was their second straight overtime game and fifth for the season. Not surprisingly, four of their seven victories have been by six points or less. Note that last year's meeting between these teams also went to overtime. The Golden Flashes, who are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, have a star in QB Julian Edelman, who is looking to finish with a bang. Look for Edelman and co. to put up big numbers as the Bulls get caught looking ahead and the Golden Flashes earn at least the cover.
I'm playing on PURDUE. These teams are both playing well and both should have strong seasons. That being said, I feel that the value lies with the Big 10 for this early season Big 10 vs. Big 12 showdown. The Boilermakers are coming off an outstanding season which saw them finish second in the Big 10 and reach the second round of the NCAA tournament. This year, they brought back all the key components from that team. Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel had this to say of the Boilermakers: "I got a chance to watch them earlier. They're so well coached, they're disciplined, they’re physical, they have such good guards." By now, most have heard of Oklahoma's star player, Blake Griffin, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. Griffin is the real deal, averaging a whopping 27.2 points and 18.8 rebounds thus far. While Griffin will surely put up big numbers again today, I like Purdue's overall team and feel that they will do a better job at slowing down the Sooners' star than UAB did. Note that no team has scored more than 64 points against the Boilermakers thus far and they're allowing an average of a mere 52.8 points per game. They held Boston College to just 38.6 percent shooting and opponents are shooting only 34% overall against them. The Boilermakers are experienced and have plenty of depth in the backcourt. They may not have a star like Griffin but they've got four players averaging in double-figures in scoring (Sooners have 3) and six players averaging greater than 8.5 per game. The Boilermakers are currently listed as slight favorites. That's worth noting as we find them at 28-14 ATS the last 42 times they were in the favorite role, including a 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) mark as a neutral court favorite of three points or less, or pick'em. The Sooners are 2-4 ATS the last six times they were neutral court underdogs of three points or less, or pick'em. Look for them to suffer their first loss this afternoon. *Best Bet
STEVE MERRIL
Mississippi
Toledo
Arizona State Under
Boise State
Dr Vegas
Nebraska -18
Central Michigan -10
Arizona State -10
LENNY STEVENS
10* Mississippi
10* Nebraska
Northcoast
4* UTEP +6-
3* C Mich over 63
Small Coll
4* Kent St +9-
3* Temple -2
Top Opinions
LSU-4-
Boise St-21
Nebraska-18
Pitt+3-
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Eastern Michigan - AiS shows an 82% probability that Eastern Michigan will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 40-16 ATS for 71% since 2002. Play on a home team with a poor passing defense allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt and after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. CMU is off a disappointing loss to Ball State in their last game losing 31-24 and pushing the line. This was the Game of the Year for them and the let down is huge after such a loss no matter how good the coaching staff is and even with a intra-state rival next. This was also a home loss and now they have to take to the road. Note that CMU is just 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992. Take EMU.