John Fina
2.5 units on Atlanta Hawks +2.5
2.5 units on Toronto Raptors +3.5
2.5 units on Chicago Bulls -1.5
3-Team NBA Parlay (Risk: 1 Unit - Payout 6 Units):
-Atlanta Hawks +2.5
-Toronto Raptors +3.5
-Chicago Bulls -1.5
Paul Leiner
300* Lac/Port over 188
Sports Firm
Hawks/Heat - Over 194
Cavaliers -10
Spurs/Grizzlies - Under 192
Hornets/Celtics - Over 189
Seabass:
NBA
20* TOR
20* NO
50* Port/LAC over
NCAAB
20* Ark Little Rock
20* Iowa St
Mike Lineback
ORLANDO MAGIC
Erin Rynning
Atlanta
Clippers
Eddie Mush
Client Picks
4* Kings +16.5
4* Drake -11.5
5* Iowa -8.5
Rocketman
4* Chicago -115
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (-10 ½) over Philadelphia
What kind of line is 10 ½ points? The Cavaliers average score this year, home and road, is 103.9 to 90.5, which is a 13.4 point margin and their average home game is a 17.3 point victory. Philadelphia is a worse than average team, so a line of 10 ½ points suggests that Cleveland will play much worse than normal in this game. The Cavaliers are without C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but he’s worth 1 ½ points historically (based on the difference in Cleveland’s average game rating over the years when he’s been out) and my ratings favor the Cavaliers by 14 ½ points in this game even without him. Daniel Gibson is also out for the Cavaliers, but Gibson is not having a good year (40% shooting and just 31% from 3-point range), so I doubt they’ll miss him. Cleveland just played a lackluster game and still beat the 76ers by 8 points in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, so winning by 11 points at home shouldn’t be much of a problem given that Cleveland applies to a 70-26 ATS situation that plays on good teams on a long win streak. Cleveland is also 16-2 ATS this season as a favorite, so they don’t know the meaning of the word letdown, and I’ll look for the Cavs to make it 11 consecutive spread wins tonight. I’ll take Cleveland in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars at -11 ½ or -12 points.
3-Stars at -11 or less, 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12.
3 Star Selection
NEW JERSEY (-2) over Toronto
Another mysterious line in this game, as the Nets have proven to be a better team than Toronto and they are at home in a good situation – yet the line has gone from New Jersey -4 points to -2 points. I was going to bet the Nets at -4 points, so I’ll take the extra gift points. The Nets are coming off an upset loss to division rival New York and now they face another divisional foe tonight. Decent teams usually play well against a division rival if they were just upset by a divisional foe in their last game and the Nets apply to a 36-4 ATS subset of a 157-87-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. New Jersey is 11-6 straight up and 11-6 ATS with Devin Harris in the lineup (they were horrible in 3 games without him) and the Nets are 6-0 ATS following their last 6 spread losses, so they tend to play well after a bad outing. Toronto, meanwhile, just ended a 5 game losing streak with a home win against the Pacers, but the Raptors are only 7-20 ATS following their last 27 victories, including 2-6 ATS this season. Toronto is also 9-12 straight up and 8-13 ATS this season and they haven’t been as good as the Nets (with Harris). My ratings favor New Jersey by 5 points in this game and I’ll take New Jersey in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Northcoast
Marquee
James Msdison
Primetime Sports Advisors
10 units Detroit Pistons -6
Indiancowboy
(POD) Take LA. Clippers +9.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (Friday @ 10pm est). I understand that Portland comes off a tough loss at Utah, but this is a lot of points here for the Clippers. Portland has beat this team the last three times they have faced them – all three of those games were last year and they covered two of those three games. Portland has missed their last five covers while the Clippers come off a tough loss to the Magic at home. The Clippers have not lost back to back covers over the last seven games. What has changed for the Clippers? How about Z. Randolph and Baron Davis being a great tandem. With Randolph, Davis, Camby, Thornton and Gordon, this team has a sound group. They covered at Houston, Dallas and Minnesota and I think they have a great shot at covering today. Remember, Portland even when they win have not been blowing teams out and are not the type of team to put up over a 100 points as they have done it just twice over the last seven games. We will know early if the Clippers are going to lay down this game, but they do have veteran play and size and do come off a tough loss, so I like them to do well here. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as Underdogs and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these two teams.
Take Over 200 between Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons (Friday @ 8pm est). Both these teams come off frustrating losses. The total is set at an even 200. Detroit beat this team 100-94 earlier at home this year as Indiana covered that game and it went over the posted total at 188. Something interesting about Indiana is that when they cover games they usually go over. Such is the case for the last 4 of 5 games as when they cover on the road, games usually have a tendency to go over. Now, will they cover here? I'm not sure. But, they have every incentive to cover given that they come off a loss at Toronto where they only put up 88 points. Combine that with the fact that the Pistons come off 3 very tough road losses to the likes of Washington, NY and Philly at home, this team is reeling for a big win. Therefore, both teams have the incentive to force this game over. Either, Indiana by an active dog or Detroit by a blowout win. Notice that the first time these two teams met, the total was set at 188 and this team it is set at 200 and it is no accident for the 12 point jump. The over is 5-1 for the Pistons when facing teams with a wining % of less than .400 and the over is 5-1 for the Pacers when they are dogs by 5 to 9.5 points.
Take Over 201.5 Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (Friday @ 8pm est). Memphis has won back to back games including defeating the Rockets at home and coming back to beat OKC on the road. If you notice both of those games, their young guns were shooting the ball very well and it is obvious that their offense has taken a new spring especially when they blewout a defensive team such as the Rockets. The Bulls come off wins against NY and Washington at home but did struggle against the Bucks on the road. They did however win against Philly, Utah and GS on the road outright. I can see this side going either way as Chicago remembers their last road contest which was a loss as they have been exchanging road wins and road losses of late. Chicago beat this team 96-86 back in early November so this is revenge game for Memphis hence this explains why the line is so low. I can see Memphis winning this game outright, hence, the short lay. Consequently, with an active small dog, let's roll with the over. I believe Memphis will shoot for about 105-115 here considering they were able to put up similar numbers against Houston and look for Chicago to be active as they lost their last road contest. The over is 7-1 for the Bulls when they are small favorites of late and the over is 7-1 for the impoved Grizzly offense of late as well.
Take Iowa State +8.5 over Iowa (Friday @ 8:05pm est.) Iowa State is 6-2 and Iowa is 8-2. These two teams have gone back and forth consistently over the last few years with Iowa State winning last time 56-47 at home. Iowa State comes off a tough loss to Drake at home as a -4 point chalk and Iowa comes off a big win over Northern Iowa at home easily covering the spread. Sure, it would be great taking Iowa here at home with revenge from last year, but with Iowa State coming off the home loss to Drake, I would not be surprised if they are more focused for this game and who knows, maybe they were looking ahead to this game all along and that was part of the reason why they lost at home to Drake. The total will be very low in this game indicating that it will be great to take the 8.5 points on a game that is expected to be low scoring. Tack on the fact that the Cyclones have covered this contest the last four years and Iowa State coming off a home loss, I like their focus here for this game. The Cyclones are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Big 10, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 contests and Iowa State is 4-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
CHARLIE
clippers @ portland under 188 (500* )
hawks+3 (30*)
kings @ lakers over 215 (20*)
nets-3 (20*)
pistons-7 (10*)
minnesota+8 (10*) free play
KBHOOPS
NBA
5* San Antonio -8 **POD**
5* Boston -6.5
5* Houston -1.5
4* Detroit -6
3* Cleveland -10.5
3* Sacramento +16.5
NCAAB
5* Miami Florida -24
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on the Celtics and Hornets to finish UNDER the number. These teams are both among the best in the league defensively. The Hornets are allowing 92.3 points per game while the Celtics are allowing 91, including just 89.9 at home. In their most recent game here, the champs held Portland to just 78 points. Naturally, the 93-78 final stayed comfortably below the total. Including that result, the champs have seen the UNDER go 4-2 in six games against teams from the West this season. The Celtics also have really been elevating their defensive intensity when facing the league's top teams. They held the Pistons to 76 and 80 points while limiting the Magic to only 88. Looking at last season's meetings between these two teams and we find that the Hornets won a high-scoring contest at New Orleans. The rematch was in Boston a week later and it too started out high-scoring. However, thats when the Celts decided to take it personally on defense. You may even recall the play that started it all. Kevin Garnett wanted the rest of his teammates to pick up their intensity defensively. Early in the third quarter, he showed them when he dropped to his knees with his hands close to the floor while setting up to cover David West at the top of the key. Afterwards, Garnett stated: "In my mind the matchup started (Thursday) in practice. West scored 37 when we played them in New Orleans. I took that a little personally. In my mind I do a lot of things on the court I can't remember. I was just trying to be aggressive on defense and be as aggressive as I could." KG's teammates followed his lead. In fact, the Celtics held the Hornets to a mere 32 total points in the second half. Hornets coach Byron Scott said: "...they got real aggressive defensively. They did a great job." The Celtics haven't forgotten about the Hornets and I expect there to be plenty of defensive intensity right from the opening tipoff. Likewise, the Hornets know they will have to be better on that end of the floor if they want to compete with the champs on their homecourt. The UNDER is a combined 8-1-1 (5-1 and 3-0-1) when these teams have played on Fridays this season and I expect tonight's final score to also stay beneath what I feel is a generous number. *Total of the Week - Annihilator
I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. Having lost the first three games of their 4-game road trip, I expect I highly motivated effort from the Hawks this evening. Yes, Atlanta lost the first three games of the trip. However, a closer look shows that those games came against the three Texas teams and its difficult to win at any of those venues. Additionally, the Hawks were actually 2-1 ATS in those games, so it wasn't like they were playing poorly. For the season, the Hawks are now 8-4-1 ATS on the road. The Hawks are also a profitable 8-3 ATS this season when listed as an underdog and are now 11-5 ATS their last 16 in that role. Conversely, the Heat are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as favorites and an awful 4-16 ATS in that role. Looking back still further and we find Miami at a money-burning 22-43 ATS the 65 times that it was favored, including a 2-9 ATS mark as home favorites of three points or less. The Heat, who haven't played since 12/8, have been winning recently. Yet, they're still 1-4 ATS their last five games and 5-11 ATS their last 16. They're also an ugly 1-6 SU/ATS the past seven times that that the played with three or more day's rest in between games. While Miami's Dwayne Wade has been playing as well as anyone, I feel that the overall matchup favors the Hawks. Note that Atlanta has played very well against divisional foes. In fact, the Hawks are the only team in the Southeast with an undefeated record (4-0) against teams from within the division. Only three other teams (Boston, Detroit and Utah) have perfect records within their own divisions. Desperate to get back on track, I expect the Hawks to be the "hungrier" team tonight and for them to close out their road trip with an upset victory. *Eastern Conf. Best Bet