Friday Service Picks:

Bob

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Strong Opinion
Utah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 35
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-07
Louisville is a tough team to figure, as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse, who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per play. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent, as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help, as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does have a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC State. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math model would favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points, but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% chance of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points.

Michael Cannon Money Train
Thursday he goes 1-1, down a net 10 dimes on the day.
Friday Picks:

15 Dime –

UTAH
Take the points with Utah tonight when they take on Louisville at Papa John’s Stadium.
Now that Utah quarterback Brian Johnson is back the Utes have the capability to present a run/pass balance that can keep the Cardinal defense on the field for long stretches.
It’s not like Louisville’s defense has been up to the task this year anyway, so having Johnson back under center should keep this game closer throughout.
Much has been made of the Cardinal’s debacle when they lost at home against Syracuse as a 37-point chalk. There were signs of pending disaster earlier in the season when they had to outscore Middle Tennessee State 58-42 as a 41-point home chalk.
If those two schools can rack up the points against Louisville, I love our chances here with Utah.
Even though Utah has been inconsistent this season, I attribute that more to their early-season injuries than anything else. They will come into this game fired up in front of a national TV audience and with full confidence they can break through the Cardinals defense and hang with them score-for-score.
The Utes have a big advantage in overall defense, allowing just 19 points and 349.6 total ypg, compared to Louisville’s 28 ppg and 417 ypg average. Utah is giving up just 151.6 ypg passing, so Cardinal quarterback Brian Brohm will have his work cut out for him tonight.
Utah has been a cash cow as an underdog in recent years, going 21-5 ATS in its last 26 when catching points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in its last four as a double-digit dog. They are also a sparkling 13-0 ATS as a dog when taking on a .600 or better foe.
With Johnson back at quarterback, take the points with full confidence as Utah stays within the number tonight.

5 Dime –

YANKEES
Take the Yankees as the road chalk today in Game 2 of their ALDS against the Indians.
I had the Yankees as a 20 dime best bet and they failed me miserably, but I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight.
That’s because Andy Pettitte will get the start and he brings a boatload of playoff experience into this game. The southpaw should be able to keep the predominately left-handed hitting lineup of the Indians in check.
The Tribe will counter with Fausto Carmona and the right-hander had a terrific season, but you have to wonder if the Indians might have wished they saved some of those runs they scored last night for today’s game.
That’s because the Tribe didn’t provide Carmona with a ton of run support this season, and if they struggle at the plate again tonight it’s going to be tough to keep the Yankees offense under wraps.
Take the Yankees for the road win behind Pettitte in Game 2.

ACE-ACE/A. Eastman

Record 14-8 +$1491.00

LOUISVILLE -14 1/2 -103.............$300(Today)

Big AL

At 5:05pm our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. After two days of the postseason, three series' favorites (Philly, New York, and Chicago) have a combined record of 0-5. So far, if you just look at which team has the most consistent talent across the board, instead of which team spends more on salaries, then these games have gone exactly like they should have. In no first round game was this made more obvious than the Cleveland Indians' dismantling of the Yankees in game 1 by a score of 12-3. Sure the Yanks have A-Rod and Jeter, but when you look at the batting orders from top to bottom and the pitching staffs in their entirety, there is no doubt that the advantage here rests solidly in the Indians'
corner. And now they will start young righthanded stud Fausto Carmona, while the Yankees will counter with veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte. Carmona was perhaps the best pitcher in the AL in the second half of the season, and he finished just one win shy of the league lead. In his last five starts, he was 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA, and he was also 9-1 this year in daytime starts. Pettitte has had a solid year with 15 wins, but his last two road starts were particularly troubling, having given up four earned runs in four innings in Boston on September 14th and then perhaps his worst start of the year on September 29 when he gave up eight earned runs in five innings (with no strikeouts) in Baltimore. Also of concern if you're a Yankee backer is the fact that Cleveland is an even better hitting team against lefties than against righties. The Tribe batted .273 this season vs. southpaws, and in their last ten games, their average was .306. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss our big Football Winners, as we have 8 selections posted right now, including two 3-game packages, and also our SEC Game of the Year and our Big 12 Game of the Month.

Brandon Lang

FRIDAY
15 DIME

Louisville

5 DIME

New York Yankees - Specify Pitchers - Pettitte vs Carmona
Utah/Louisville UNDER
Reply With Quote

BURNS
WINNIPEG (CFL Friday)

Game: British Columbia Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Game Time: 10/5/2007 8:00:00 PM
Prediction: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Reason: I'm taking the points with WINNIPEG. I feel that the wrong team is favored here. Yes, the Lions are the defending champions and are again the "best in the West." However, the Lions, who are down to their third-string quarterback, are taking on the "Beast of the East" this evening, and they're doing so in "the Beast's" own backyard! Winnipeg boasts the CFL's most prolific scoring attack, averaging a whopping 316 yards passing per game. Quarterback Kevin Glenn, a strong candidate for the East Division's nominee for the CFL's outstanding player award, has thrown for a league-high 3,923 yards with 19 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. The Bombers stellar receiving corps which is anchored by veteran CFL legend Milt Stegall, who has 48 catches, 792 yards, five TDs. However, Winnipeg is much more than just a passing team. Running back Charles Roberts is the CFL's second-ranked rusher with 1,043 yards. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has scored 14 touchdowns. The Bombers, who already upset the Lions at BC, have won four straight home games and are 6-1 their last seven here. They know this is a possible Grey Cup Preview and I expect them to respond with a statement victory. *Friday Feast

BURNS
UNDER yankees/indians

Game: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Game Time: 10/5/2007 5:05:00 PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on the Yankees and Indians to finish UNDER the number. The bats came to life yesterday but I'm expecting the pitcher's to steal the show this afternoon. Pettitte is a big game veteran who has been here numerous times before. For his career, he is a solid 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA in the postseason. His team badly needs him to step up with a big effort and I expect this tough competitor to deliver. Carmona isn't nearly as experienced but he's got even nastier stuff. The Indians' young star has had a superb season and he's been awesome down the stretch. Indeed, for the season he was 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA and he finished the year by going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts. Since this is an afternoon game, it's also worth noting that Carmona was 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 12 daytime starts this season. With those kind of stats, it's no surprise that Carmona has seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 13-2 his last 15 starts. Expect more of the same this afternoon as this pitcher's duel stays below the number. *blue chip

Wiseguysports

2 unit Yanks
1 unit Louisville

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Oct 5 2007 8:35PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Reason: The Red Sox went 18-4 (plus-$1,000) at home in day games vs right-handers in the regular season but just 21-17 (minus-$890) in night games. They did open with a 4-0 win in Game 1 vs Lackey in a 6:35 ET time start but didn't do much with their bats after taking a 4-0 lead in the 3rd inning. They didn't need to, as Josh Beckett was superb. Will Dice-K give them a similar effort tonight? Red Sox manager Terry Francona made a bit of a surprising move when he opted to start Matsuzaka over Curt Schilling in the second game. Schilling is 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 career postseason starts, and also posted a 2.79 ERA in his final six starts of 2007. Francona chose Matsuzaka instead. Matsuzaka was a workhorse throughout his first major league season, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA and logging a team-high 204.2 innings. However, the Red Sox went just 17-15 (minus-$661) in his 32 starts this year. That heavy workload may have contributed to his 2-4 record and 7.14 ERA over his final eight outings (Boston lost eight of his last 13 starts!). Kelvim Escobar turned in his best season in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA. He was bothered by shoulder problems down the stretch but gave up one run over six innings in a 3-2 victory at Oakland on Saturday. Although he was a little shaky in some of his later outings this year, the Angels won EIGHT of his last nine starts, finishing 22-8 (plus-$951) in his 30 starts this year. 15* LA Angels.

Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese

Game: Utah at Louisville Oct 5 2007 8:00PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Louisville is in a 24-4 Over Super System that says to play OVER on any team that gained 450 or more yards in 3 straight games if in this game both teams have 8 or more offensive starters returning from last years team. The Cardinals are 13-4 OVER their last 17 October games. Utah is 8-3 OVER off a straight up win in their last game. The Utes are 6-2 OVER their last 8 road games vs. winning teams and they are 11-5 OVER after allowing 20 or less points in their last game. 10* Play On 'OVER'

King Totals

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Yankees/Indians under 9.5
Utah/Louisville over 61

Larry Ness' ALDS Game Two 15* (151-51 this season!)-Angels/Red Sox

Los Angeles Angels

The Red Sox went 18-4 (plus-$1,000) at home in day games vs right-handers in the regular season but just 21-17 (minus-$890) in night games. They did open with a 4-0 win in Game 1 vs Lackey in a 6:35 ET time start but didn't do much with their bats after taking a 4-0 lead in the 3rd inning. They didn't need to, as Josh Beckett was superb. Will Dice-K give them a similar effort tonight? Red Sox manager Terry Francona made a bit of a surprising move when he opted to start Matsuzaka over Curt Schilling in the second game. Schilling is 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 career postseason starts, and also posted a 2.79 ERA in his final six starts of 2007. Francona chose Matsuzaka instead. Matsuzaka was a workhorse throughout his first major league season, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA and logging a team-high 204.2 innings. However, the Red Sox went just 17-15 (minus-$661) in his 32 starts this year. That heavy workload may have contributed to his 2-4 record and 7.14 ERA over his final eight outings (Boston lost eight of his last 13 starts!). Kelvim Escobar turned in his best season in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA. He was bothered by shoulder problems down the stretch but gave up one run over six innings in a 3-2 victory at Oakland on Saturday. Although he was a little shaky in some of his later outings this year, the Angels won EIGHT of his last nine starts, finishing 22-8 (plus-$951) in his 30 starts this year. 15* LA Angels.

ATS Financial Package

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Over 60 1/2 Loui/Ut......................3 Units

Scott Spreitzer's Friday ALDS Grand Slam! *Perfect 2-0!
I'm taking the underdog Indians on Friday. The Yanks are once again laying a price due to public perception. New York's best chance to steal one at the "Jake" may have come with their game one matchup. Obviously, they couldn't get the job done. I think they're in a world of hurt in game two. Cleveland sends Fausto Carmona to the bump today. The Indians have won each of his last seven starts, and the righty owns a 1.78 ERA in his last five. The Tribe are a healthy 13-4 in his 17 home starts this season, where Indian opponents are averaging just 3.59 RPG. The wrong team is the fave, we'll take the underdog Indians on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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