Greg Roberts has a 3* on Nevada Fri nite FB
Don Wagner..
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Huge Play
Nevada +7
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA 38 Hawaii (-7.0) 37
08:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07
Nevada has had an extra week to prepare for their biggest home game of the season and experienced coach Chris Ault is 3-0 ATS at home after a bye week. The Wolf Pack also qualify in a very strong 37-4-1 ATS subset of a 95-31-3 ATS home off a bye angle while Hawaii applies to a negative 100-174-11 ATS road favorite situation and struggles to cover as a conference road favorite against decent teams (0-6 ATS as a conference road favorite against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 10 seasons under coach June Jones). Hawaii needed overtime periods to win at Louisiana Tech and at San Jose State this season and Reno, Nevada is a place where June Jones has not won or covered the spread despite being favored in 2 of 3 visits. The Warriors have played a very easy schedule so far this season and the only decent team that they faced prior to this game was last week’s narrow 37-30 home win over Fresno State as a 17 point favorite. Hawaii still has yet to face a team that rates as better than average offensively (based on my ratings) and the Warriors’ mediocre defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average team) will have trouble containing Nevada’s dynamic sophomore quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick came off the bench in game 5 to replace injured starter Nick Graziano and lit up a solid Fresno State defense for 384 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in just 3 quarters of play. Kaepernick followed that performance with 235 aerial yards (on just 29 pass plays) and 185 yards on 11 runs in a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State as a 26 point dog. Overall, Kaepernick has been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average throwing the football (compensated for opponent’s faced) and has scampered for 519 yards on just 56 rushing plays in about 5 games of work - while throwing just 2 interceptions on 145 pass attempts. Hawaii’s potent attack is going to score points against a sub-par Nevada defense, but the Wolf Pack are certainly capable of keeping within striking range with their offense. My math favors Hawaii by 8 points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation is strongly in favor of Nevada, so I’ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more
ace-ace / allan eastman 5-9 ytd nba
sac -3
JIM FEIST
That opening day victory over Dallas sure was a fluke, as a young rebuilding Atlanta team then lost 4 of 5. The defense continues to be a problem, giving up over 100 points in three straight games. Seattle has a good offense with newcomer Kevin Durant, averaging 98 ppg. They just won at Miami by 9 as a road dog. The Sonics are also 6-0 against Atlanta since 2004 season. Play the Sonics!
DAVE COKIN
The Pacers came storming out of the starting gate with three straight wins, but reality has arrived and Indiana is now mired in a nasty losing streak. This is a really weak entry that's not going to be anywhere near playoff contention, and they have some serious matchup problems here. Toronto's vastly superior depth is a big plus in this contest, and the Raptors will be eager to get back in the win column off the loss to Utah. I think they'll do so easily, so Toronto minus the number is the choice
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Houston (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) at San Antonio (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS)
The Rockets and Spurs meet for the second time this month when they tipoff in a key Southwest Division battle at the AT&T Center.
Houston topped the Spurs 89-91 as a 2?-point home underdog back on Nov. 6. However, the Rockets come into this contest having dropped their last two, falling to the Grizzlies on Tuesday 105-99 as 6?-point favorites and losing 93-90 to the Lakers as a 6?-point home chalk on Wednesday.
Houston is on ATS slides of 1-7 ATS against Southwest Division opponents, 1-10 on the road and 7-19 overall, including 0-3 in the last three.
The Rockets are on a 3-1 SU and ATS role against the Spurs, including back-to-back upset wins in San Antonio. In fact, the road team has won six of the last seven clashes.
San Antonio had a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in last night?s 105-92 loss at Dallas as a two-point road underdog. On the bright side, the Spurs are 5-0 at home this year (3-2 ATS), averaging 102 points per game while holding the opposition to 87 points, including 24.2 percent shooting from beyond the 3-point line.
Going back to last year?s playoffs, the Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The under is 21-6 in the last 27 head-to-head meetings, including five consecutive ?unders? dating back to last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
Detroit (6-2 AU, 4-4 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Pistons continue their five-game West Coast road trip tonight at the Staples Center in Los Angeles with a matchup against Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
Detroit has won two of its first three on this trip, beating Seattle (107-103 as a 6?-point favorite) and Golden State (111-104 as a one-point chalk) sandwiched around a loss in Portland (102-94 as a five-point underdog).
Los Angeles split its two-game Texas road trip this week, losing in San Antonio on Tuesday 107-92 as an eight-point underdog, then winning in Houston on Wednesday 93-90 as a 6?-point ?dog.
The Pistons have dominated the Lakers since the 2004 NBA Finals, winning five of six regular-season meetings (4-2 ATS) by an average of 16.2 points. Detroit scored easy wins over Los Angeles last year, cruising 97-83 as a 5?-point underdog in the Staples Center in November and 93-78 as a 4?-point home chalk in February.
Over the last 14 meetings, the Pistons are 11-2-1 ATS
Detroit averages 102 points on the road and allow just 96.3. Meanwhile, the Lakers score 105.8 at Staples, but give up 103.8.
The Lakers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games, but 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall.
The over has been the play in all three of Detroit?s West Coast games this week. Also, the over is 6-3 in L.A.?s last nine games. However, both last year?s Pistons-Lakers clashes stayed under the number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT
burns NBA
UNDER heat/celtics
Game: Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 11/16/2007 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Miami to finish UNDER the number. The Celtics are playing terrific defense right now, allowing the fewest points in the Eastern Conference. In their last game, they held the Nets to just 69 points. In four home games, they are now allowing an average of only 82 points per game. Not surprisingly, three of those four games (5-2 overall) have fallen below the total. Meanwhile, the Heat are managing a mere 78.5 points on the road, while allowing only 84.5. Naturally, with an average of just 163 points, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in those four games. Even with Dwayne Wade back in the lineup, the Heat, who have scored the fewest points in the Conference, managed only 95 vs. defensively-challenged Seattle. That's really saying something as the Sonics came into that game having allowed 111 points per game on the road and having allowed every previous opponent to reach triple-digits. Looking at the recent series history and we find that the UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 the last four meetings. The games at Boston have been particularly low-scoring. In fact, the last three meetings here have seen combined scores of 163, 170 and 173 bringing the UNDER to a profitable 13-3 the last 16 times the teams faced each other here. Look for another low-scoring affair this evening. *Blue Chip
KINGS (-4 or better)
Game: New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 11/16/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm laying the small number with SACRAMENTO. The Knicks have Marbury back in the lineup. However, they'll be without Randolph (among others) and I expect the whole Marbury situation to prove a distraction. Note that Randolph leads the team in both points and rebounds. The Kings got one of their stars back (Ron Artest) last time out and they'll be anxious to pick up the victory in his 2007 home debut. With Artest scoring 17 points at Minnesota on Wednesday, the Kings currently have a whopping six players averaging double-digits in scoring. Conversely, without Randolph in the lineup, the Knicks will have three players averaging double-digits in scoring. Even without Artest in the lineup, the Kings have already managed a perfect 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) record at home. They've also dominated the Knicks here over the years. In fact, last year's 112-100 win here brought the Kings to 9-1 the last 10 times they were a host in this series. Note that seven of those nine victories came by a minimum of seven points. Dating back to last season, the Knicks are just 1-7 ATS the last eight times they were listed as road underdogs of four points or less. While the Kings tend to play well against weaker teams (3-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record so far this season) the Knicks always seem to play better when facing a top tier team. In fact, they're already 0-2 ATS this season when facing a team with a losing record which brings them to a money-burning 33-53-1 ATS against losing teams since the start of the 2005 season. Look for that record to get even worse tonight as the Knicks' struggles at ARCO Arena continue.
burns college fb
NEVADA (+6 or better)
Game: Hawaii vs. Nevada Game Time: 11/16/2007 11:00:00 PM Prediction: Nevada Reason: I'm taking the points with NEVADA. While the Warriors are the stronger team, the Wolfpack have plenty to play for and have the schedule significantly in their favor. After squeaking by New Mexico State (40-38) two weeks ago, the Wolfpack had last week off to prepare for this week's big game. Coach Chris Ault had this to say to the Reno Gazette-Journal: "We welcome the extra week to practice and get some ideas down. It still comes down to execution...We'll be more than ready for Hawaii." This is a big game for Nevada for several reasons. For starters, the Wolfpack still need a win to become bowl eligible. Additionally, this is a rare home game in front of a national TV audience. Note that the Wolfpack played very well the last time that they were on National TV, almost exactly a month ago, at Boise State. In that game, the Wolfpack gave the other "conference heavyweight" (Boise State) all it could handle, eventually losing 69-67 in triple overtime, as 25 point underdogs. Friday's game also offers the Wolfpack a chance to play a role in both the conference and the national title scene. Since nearly scoring the upset on the blue turf, the Wolfpack have won all three games. Speaking of Boise State, the Warriors will square off with the Broncos next week, the biggest game of their season. They're also playing on a short week, after surviving a hard-fought challenge from Fresno State late Saturday night, then traveling all the way from Hawaii to Reno. Note that the game-time temperature is expected to be in the upper 40s, a far-cry from the balmy weather that the majority of the Warriors are familiar with. The Wolfpack earned the cover at Hawaii last season, losing by seven points. They also won outright when they hosted the Warriors in 2005. In fact, the home team has won eight straight games in the series. With the Warriors "looking ahead" to Boise State, look for the Wolfpack to earn at least the cover, improving to 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. *Feast
Burns college bb
TULSA (-11 or better)
Game: Arkansas State vs. Tulsa Game Time: 11/16/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Tulsa Reason: I'm laying the points with TULSA. Both these teams suffered disappointing losses in their opener. Arkansas State got off to an 11-0 start in its game against Utah Valley State but eventually lost 67-63. The Golden Hurricane also lost their opener. However, while the Indians only played the one game, the Golden Hurricanes have already played a second, bouncing back with a convincing 17 win. This is a solid team and I expect them to build off that effort with another double-digit victory this evening. The Golden Hurricane finished with a 20-11 record las season. With four starters and some important reserves back from that team, the Hurricane should be just as successful this season. Tulsa's strength resides in the backcourt, where Rod Earls, Ben Uzoh and Brett McDade all return to their starting roles. Earls, who sat out the 2005-06 season with a broken foot, led Tulsa in scoring (11.2 ppg) last season and he is deadly from long range, hitting on 40.8 percent of his three-point attempts. Uzoh put together a tremendous freshman campaign in 2006-07, as the 6-3 guard averaged 9.9 ppg and a team-high 5.0 rpg in starting all but one game. As for McDade, he ran the point and averaged 6.8 ppg last season. In the big win over North Florida, Uzoh scored 20 points while Earls added 18. McDade chipped in seven while Glenn Andrews added 14. Backed by more excellent backcourt play, look for the Golden Hurricane to improve to 7-2 ATS their last nine lined November games.
Doc's Sports
CFB
4* Nev +7
4* C Mich -13
Teddy Covers 20* Big Ticket--S.Diego St. +11
ON FIRE! Big Al's on a MAJOR LEAGUE WINNING ROLL in Football, as he's CASHED 8 of 9 Packages including his Pac-10 Game of the Month on Arizona over Oregon last night. If you enjoyed that big winner, then you'll love his Conference Game of the Year play on Friday's College Football card. It's out of a 14-0 System. Go get it.
Price: $20.00
Nevada
Chris Jordan
200♦ HORNETS
It's almost tempting to downplay New Orleans' 7-2 mark because it's so early in the season, but this team is incredibly talented, and let's be real, teams from San Antonio to Phoenix to Dallas would all be pleased with the same results. And every critic in America would call a 7-2 start with any of those Western Conference contenders would be heralded, rather than questioned.
From point guard Chris Paul, to sniper Peja Stojakovic, to fellow sharp-shooter Morris Peterson – this is a dangerous team that can easily put a game out of reach against any squad that lacks similar firepower. Did I mention David West an Tyson Chandler as well? Memphis beat the Hornets twice last season, and don't think this year's version hasn't forgotten about it. For a team that plans on competing in March and April, it needs to defeat the foes it's supposed to beat – that would include the Grizzlies.
200♦ MONTANA STATE
Boise State opened the season by losing at home to Washington State and struggling to win in overtime against Utah Valley State. Now inactive for a week, the rebuilding Broncos are going to be shocked to see how good Montana State is this season. The Bobcats played Sweet 16-graduate UNLV a run for its money in Vegas to start the season, and then pounded Long Beach State on Tuesday, 74-56.
Montana State is a chief contender in the Big Sky Conference, and has a presence on offense with juniors Casey Durham and Carlos Taylor leading the way. It's a department Boise State is vividly struggling to identify sans Coby Karl and a host of others from last season's team. Take the points with this home underdog, as the 'Cats get it done outright in this Northwest neighborly clash.
200♦ HAWAII
Colt Brennan has been cleared to play, and that means we should expect a high-scoring affair between the Warriors and Wolfpack. Despite coach June Jones stating it will be a game-time decision for his all-American, Brennan said he plans to start despite being knocked out cold in the fourth quarter of last week's 37-30 victory over Fresno State.
And I expect him to dissect Nevada's secondary, the same way Boise State did last month in a 69-67 shootout. In addition to averaging 50.2 points per game, Hawaii ranks second in the nation with its passing offense (454 yards per game) and third in total offense (534.3). And with Brennan under center, we're going to see his three leading targets working full-time tonight. Ryan Grice-Mullen (120.0), Jason Rivers (95.4) and Davone Bess (94.0) lead the WAC in receiving yards, and there's nothing more inspiring for an offense like this is to show up a similarly talented offensive unit.
So here's where we separate the good from the better, Nevada may be talented with the nation's ninth-best offense, but it also has the 109th ranked scoring defense, 105th rushing defense and 86th ranked pass-efficient defense. Crunch the numbers and the Pack are 85th nationally in the total defense category. Hawaii's defense is much better, ranking 36th overall, and with this being a key clash before the Boise game, we're going to see a double-digit win tonight.
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
15 Dime –
RAPTORS
Lay the points with the Raptors tonight when they host the Pacers.
I really like this Toronto team. They have the versatility to play it big or small. They can get away with playing Chris Bosh and four smaller players against Indiana. Or, if they prefer, they can go big and still have the capability of hitting 3-pointers with Bosh, Jorge Garbajosa and Andrea Bargnani.
The Pacers can’t come close to matching that versatility. They are also playing their third game in four days, so the deep bench of the Raptors should wear them down in the second half.
Lay the points as Toronto grabs the double-digit home win.
10 Dime –
KINGS
Lay the points with Sacramento tonight when they host New York.
The Knicks are a complete mess right now. The Stephon Marbury feud with Isiah Thomas is just the tip of the iceberg, and they have zero commitment to playing team defense.
Sacramento is not the most talented team in the league, but they do have Ron Artest back and that should be enough to give them the defensive advantage here tonight.
The Knicks don’t have the rebounders to take advantage of Sacramento’s inside weakness.
This is New York’s fourth game in six days and they aren’t deep enough to have fresh legs throughout.
Lay the small number as the Kings grab the home win and cover.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Take Central Michigan as the home chalk tonight over Eastern Michigan.
I’m not sure Emu has much left in the tank. This is Eagles 12th game in 12 weeks and it’s their seventh road game. Their lack of depth has caught up with them as they’ve given up 91 points and over 1,000 yards in the last two games.
Central Michigan has a huge advantage in terms of rest, as it’s just their third game since October 27. Add in the fact that they’ll be playing in front of their home crowd for the first time since October 13 and you have all the ingredients for a blowout here.
The Chippewas are just two wins away from an unbeaten MAC record and another trip to the conference title game, so the focus will be there. Quarterback Dan LeFevour leads an offense that ranks third in the conference in total offense and averages 44 points per game in MAC play.
Central Michigan is 5-1-1 ATS in weekday games and 5-1 ATS at home playing a conference opponent with revenge.
Eastern Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in its last five season finales.
Lay the points as Central Michigan grabs the home win and cover.
5 Dime –
76ERS
Lay the points with Philadelphia tonight when they host Portland.
This is a difficult spot for the Trailblazers as they will be entering their third different time zone in three days. They won at home against the Pistons on Tuesday, lost at Denver on Wednesday and now find themselves on the east coast tonight.
Philadelphia has struggled out of the gate this year, but they find themselves laying a small number against a young, travel-weary team they can handle at home.
Center Samuel Dalembert should have a big game tonight against the Blazers Channing Frye, which will take some of the pressure off the 76ers backcourt, which has struggled with their perimeter game so far.
Lay the points as Philadelphia grabs the home win and cover.