THE GOLD SHEET
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30
*Fresno State 34 - NEW MEXICO STATE 27—Fresno State (7-4) is well on
its way to a minor bowl, and jr. QB Brandstater (23 of 29 in last week’s win over
Kansas State) is now being asked to pose for pictures with fans’ babies (!) after
being booed frequently in the past by home crowd. However, Bulldog RBs
(especially exciting frosh Ryan Mathews; ankle) still not 100%. And scouts in
Las Cruces say last week’s bye did wonders for overworked key members of the
NMS defense. Aggie QB Chase Holbrook (71.3%, 322 ypg passing) should fire
away all day vs. Fresno defense that has only three interceptions all season.
TV-ESPN2
(06-FRESNO ST. 23-Nmsu 18...N.22-14 F.41/164 N.22/9 N.39/51/0/367 F.11/19/0/99 F.0 N.4)
(06-FRESNO ST. -12' 23-18 05-Fresno St. -27' 37-7...SR: Fresno State 13-0)
Spylock
1* Fresno St -13
Burns NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Challenged by their coach, the Wild responded with a solid win over a surging Phoenix team last time out. Playing with "revenge" from a 3-2 loss here on the first day of the month, I expect the Wild to build off the win over Phoenix and record their second straight victory. Prior to the November 1st loss, the Wild had beaten the Blues six straight times here. The Wild didn't just beat the Blues either, they beat them badly. Indeed, the Wild outscored the Blues by a 27-9 margin over that six game stretch. The Wild got Pavol Demitra back last game. That's important as he's a key part of their offense. With the victory, the Wild improved to 9-1-1 with him in the lineup. The Wild will surely have Niklas Backstrom between the pipes. Backstrom made 21 saves against the Coyotes to improve to an outstanding 21-2-4 with a 1.47 GAA and six shutouts all-time at the Xcel Energy Center. That includes a 7-1 mark (1.50 GAA) and two shutouts this season. Look fo Backstrom to continue his home ice dominance and the Wild to resume their home ice dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
Burns college football
NEW MEXICO STATE (+10 or better)
Game: Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St. Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: New Mexico St. Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW MEXICO STATE. This is a big game for the Aggies and I feel the number is too high. This will be the final game for 21 New Mexico State seniors, including five starters on defense, three on offense and two specialists. Additionally, QB Holbrook needs 126 yards to break the New Mexico State career record for total offense of 8,207 yards set by Cody Ledbetter (1991-95). He already owns the marks for attempts, completions, passing yards and touchdown passes. Holbrook and co. are averaging a healthy 31 points per game at home, leading to a 4-2 (3-1 ATS) record here. Overall, the 'Air Raid" offense ranks sixth nationally and second in the WAC with 332.7 passing yards per game. The Aggies are fourth in the conference in third-down conversions (39.8 percent) and total offense (423.8) and seventh in rushing (91.2) and red-zone success (75.6 percent). The defense hasn't been so good. However, there are some positives as the 26.8 points per game at home that the Aggies are allowing is respectable. Additionally, the Aggies' 23 sacks are the most by the program since 2001 and defense ranks fourth in the conference in rushing defense. As mentioned above, the defensive unit has five seniors. They'll be playing hard in their last game, particularly given that defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer is retiring after a 40-year career. I like the Bulldogs as a team. However, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown after last week's big win over K-State assured them of a bowl appearance. Last year's game was played at Frenso State and was decided by just five points in a 23-18 Bulldogs win. Look for another close one this year with Holbrook breaking the school record and his team easily hanging within the generous number. *Main Event
Burns NBA
OVER seattle/inidana (215 or better)
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/30/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Indiana and Seattle to finish OVER the total. After winning with the Sonics to go "over" the total three games ago, I successfully played on them to finish "under" the number in each of their last two games. Those last two results have kept tonight's number reasonably low and I feel that this should be a strong spot for the Sonics to record another "over." That's because they'll be facing a team that likes to run and down the floor. The last time that the Sonics faced a similar team (Memphis on 11/19) they combined for a whopping 233 points. Note that the Sonics rank last in the Western Conference in terms of scoring defense while the Pacers rank second last (behind only Memphis) in the East. The Pacers have already seen the OVER go 3-0 this season when playing a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, bringing the OVER to 6-1 their last seven in that situation. They've seen five of their last seven games produce a minimum of 214 points and the only two that didn't do so were the two occasions when they played the second of back to back games - which they aren't doing tonight. Looking at the series history and we find the OVER at a perfect 8-0 the last eight meetings. I'm expecting more of the same tonight as this track meet sails above the posted total.
burns college bball
MONTANA STATE (-25 or better)
Game: Alcorn State vs. Montana State Game Time: 11/30/2007 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Montana State Reason: I'm laying the points with MONTANA STATE. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get out of hand early. After a pair of losses on the raod, the Bobcats return home where they are 2-0 SU/ATS. They also take a major step down in class as the Braves are 0-4 getting outscored by an average margin of 90-60. While certainly not a national powerhouse, the Bobcats have the weapons to hand the Braves another beating. The Bobcats have a trio of veteran guards in Casey Durham, Mecklen Davis and Carlos Taylor. Freshman Bobby Howard has been making immediate contributions at power forward, while African center Divaldo Mbunga might be one of the impact newcomers in the Big Sky, having started out with 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Having faced the likes of UNLV and having beaten Boise State in their most recent game here, this is the easiest opponent that the Bobcats have seen. Look for them to "get healthy" with a wire-to-wire blowout, dropping the Braves to 0-4 ATS the last four times they were listed as road underdogs of greater than 12.5 points. *CBB Big Chalk GOM
Brandon Lang
FRIDAY
10 DIME
Fresno St
5 DIME
Sixers
Lakers
Heat
Suns
free pick - Knicks
Kendall Holiday - 5-0-1 this week in basketball
New York Knicks +2 vs. Milwaukee - Three units
The Knicks were destroyed last night by the Boston Celtics on their home floor, and as pro athletes, that has to wake them a bit here. This is the third game in four days for the Milwaukee Bucks as well. This will likely be a perimeter battle, but Eddie Curry has the adge inside for the Knicks if he is able to avoid foul trouble early. We like the Knicks for three units.
Los Angeles Clippers +9 at Denver - Two units
Denver is banged up right now and is coming off a big defeat at the hands of the Lakers last night. If you follow our weekly updates, we have said that Denver might have a tough spot in some back to back games right now, as they are missing Martin, Chucky Atkins, and Nene, and Camby et al, are getting a bit old. The Clippers beat the Nuggets on their home court just last week, and we expect them to keep this game closer than the posted number. Two units on the Clippers.
Larry Ness' 20* NBA Blowout of the Month (18-7 L25 in NBA / 3-0 run with BKB 20*s!)
My 20* play is on the Pho Suns at 9:05 ET. Dwight Howard is coming off his best game in four NBA seasons, scoring a career-high 39 points to go with 16 rebounds in Orlando's 110-94 win over Seattle on Wednesday. He was 12-of-17 from the floor and 15-of-20 from the foul line, while also blocking five shots! He's averaging 23.5 points and 14.5 rebounds (up from 17.6 and 12.3 last season) and has a league-high 14 double-doubles. The Magic have won four straight and NINE of 10 plus own the NBA's best road mark at 9-1. So why am I predicting a Phoenix blowout? The matchups and the situation. There's no doubt the Suns will have trouble with Howard but in a 106-96 Phoenix win in Orlando (11/10), the Suns held Rashard Lewis (19.2-5.2) to a season-low seven points on 3-of-14 shooting. The Magic are not deep, with Turkoglu (18.5-5.9-3.8) and PG Nelson (12.9-4.6-6.2) being the only other main contributors. The Suns have a minimum of SEVEN solid contributors with Nash (19.9-10.7 APG), Stoudemire (18.6-8.2), Barbosa (17.7), Marion (16.9-11.5) and Hill (14.4-4.6-2.9) leading the way. Leandro Barbosa buried Orlando with a career-high 39 points in that Nov 10 win! The Suns opened this week with a league-high eight-game winning streak but allowed 45 first-quarter points in a 129-114 loss at Golden State (Mon). They followed on Wednesday with a 100-94 home loss to the Rockets, which I believe will have them PUMPED for this game with the red-hot Magic. Phoenix leaves on a five-game road trip after this and will play 11 of their 15 December games, away from home. All that puts even more importance on this contest, after two straight losses. The Suns matchup well with the Magic and the team's depth leads them to a double-digit win! Blowout of the Month 20* Pho Suns.
WINNERS EDGE( 7-3 this week but missed GOM)
CFB:
Mew Mexico St. +13 2 units
NBA:
New Orleans -1 2 units
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (16-day all sports run now at 51-21, after 3-1 Thursday!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Washington St at 9:00 ET. Scott Drew is doing a great job with a Baylor program which was rocked by scandal plus NCAA penalties in the wake of the Dave Bliss era! Baylor went 15-16 LY and returns its five starters, led by junior guard Curtis Jerrells, who leads the team with 14.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Prized freshman guard LaceDarius Dunn (12.4-5.4) scored 17 points for the second straight game on Saturday, as the Bears moved to 5-0 with a 85-62 home win over Centenary (beat Wichita State, Winthrop and Notre Dame to win the Paradise Jam title Nov 16-19). However, Baylor's frontcourt is suspect, with only the 6-9 Rogers (9.2-6.2) and the questionable 7-0 Lomers (7.6-2.8) doing much of anything. Washington State comes in at 6-0 and with their highest ranking ever (No. 6). The Cougars' perimeter game is superb with Low (15.5), Weaver (12.7-4.3-4.3) and Rochestie (11.8-3.5-5.2) running Bennett's disciplined sets. Up front, two 6-10 players, Baynes (9.3-5.7) and Cowgill (7.2-4.5) are joined by the 6-7 Harmeling (6.8-3.5). WSU is BY FAR the best team Baylor has faced this year and I don't believe the Bears are up to it. Washington State is 13-0 in November games under Bennett and while Drew is turning things around (and quickly) at Baylor, the Cougars are too good. The line doesn't reflect the talent or experience edges owned by WSU plus let's note that Baylor looks to avoid a 29th straight loss to a top-25 opponent tonight. It WON'T! Oddsmaker's Error on Washington State.
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
10 Dime –
HEAT
Take the points with the Heat tonight when they host the Celtics.
There’s no question the Celtics are rolling, but this is a dangerous spot for them as a road chalk.
The Heat have also been playing better, thanks to the return of Dwyane Wade.
Playing as a home dog on national TV is bound to bring out the best in him and center Shaquille O’Neal.
The Heat came back from 15 points down in the 4th quarter to nearly beat Boston two weeks ago as a 10-point road dog, losing 92-91. That was Wade’s first game back following knee and shoulder surgery and he was understandably rusty.
Now he’s had enough action to bring his ‘A’ game and the Heat have the advantage of catching Boston in a fatigue spot, as this will be the Celtics third game in four nights.
Take the points as the Heat cash the ticket for us as the home dog.
5 Dime –
NEW MEXICO STATE (Buy the ½ point if your line is +13 ½)
Take the points with New Mexico State tonight when they host Fresno State.
I know the Aggies haven’t had much to brag about this year, but they catch Fresno off an emotional 45-29 win over Kansas State last Saturday.
That win secured bowl-eligibility for the Bulldogs, and now they have to find a way to stay interested in a game that means little to them.
New Mexico State is coming off a bye, so they will have the advantage of 13 days of rest against a Bulldogs team playing on a short week.
The Aggies also have the passing game to keep them within the number, and at worst a back door cover late against a disinterested Fresno defense. Quarterback Chase Holbrook has completed 71 percent of his passes and averages 322 ypg and should be able to air it out against a Fresno defense that has recorded only three interceptions all season.
The Aggies have cashed four out of five tries as a rested underdog and are 4-1 ATS when playing with conference revenge.
Take the points with New Mexico State and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is +13 ½.
MAVERICKS
Lay the big number with Dallas tonight when they host Portland.
Big revenge spot for the Mavericks, as they lost straight up as a 7-point road chalk three weeks ago to the Trailblazers.
The Mavs played that game without starting point guard Devin Harris and Dirk Nowitzki had a terrible night from the floor.
Look for Dallas to bounce back at home against a Portland team they had dominated before that loss, having won the previous 13 matchups.
The Trailblazers have played poorly on the road this season and this is its first game away from home in 11 days.
Lay the points as Dallas grabs the win and cover.
KRUUGERs NCAA basketball
SIDES
# 731 Duquesne -8 over Cal State - Northridge - Bronze 3*
Two teams that run more than virtually any team in the country. Both
are loaded with newcomers and transfers. This game is being played at a
neutral site in Iowa. I like the Dukes coaching more and they are the
better defensive team. Duquesne has transfer 6-10 forward Shawn James who
was the Colonial Athletic Conference's Defensive Player of the Year and is a
shotblocking machine.
Take Duquesne!
Tom Freese 20* NBA Game of the Week Will Be EASY!
Tom Freese is 10-3 his 13 NBA Releases.
Orlando
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Fri) CFB Fresno st New Mexico st 13 New Mexico st
(Fri) NBA Celtics Heat 3- Celtics
LT'S LOCK
The LOCK: the Jazz -8
The STREAK: 1 win
The RECORD: 522-421-21