Friday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports

ANDY ISKOE

Florida Atlantc (7-5 s/u, 7-5 ATS) vs. Memphis (7-5 s/u, 6-4-1 ATS)

Opening Line: Florida Atlantic - 2 ½, currently - 2 ½; Opening Total 67, currently 67

After missing out last year Memphis makes their fourth Bowl appearance in the past 5 seasons and a second trip to this Bowl. In 2003 Memphis, favored by 4, defeated Sun Belt champion North Texas 27-17. They split their Bowls the next two years, both S/U and ATS, against a pair of MAC teams. Florida Atlantic is making their first ever Bowl appearance after winning the Sun Belt title with their 38-32 win at conference power Troy as 16 point underdogs. But such an upset is nothing new for FAU coach Schnellenberger who, a generation ago, won the 1983 National Title at Miami with their dramatic 31-30 Orange Bowl win over unbeaten Nebraska as an 11 point underdog. Not bad for a program that did not even exist until 2001 and is competing at the FBS (I-A) level for just the fourth season! As noted last week, there is not a big gap in conference strength between Memphis' Conference USA and the Sun Belt. Both teams played Middle Tennessee this season. FAU won their contest in the season opener 27-14, outgaining MTSU at home 411-217. In mid season MTSU won at Memphis 21-7, outgaining their hosts 490-248. Both also played Arkansas State with similar results. FAU won on the road 34-31, outgaining ASU 373-256. Memphis blew a huge lead in their 35-31 loss ASU while barely winning the yardage battle 395-389. Against their only BCS foe Memphis lost their season opener at Ole Miss, 23-21 and one of their 7 wins was against a I-AA foe. FAU played 5 BCS teams, losing to Florida, Oklahoma State, South Carolina and Kentucky while defeating Minnesota. Fundamentally Memphis' edge on offense is offset by FAU's edge on defense and FAU did play the tougher overall schedule based on those non-Sun Belt games. But they are a virgin Bowl favorite and teams with no recent Bowl experience have fared very poorly going back nearly 3 decades. When favored against a foe with at least one Bowl game in the previous two seasons those favorites are just 11-17-1 ATS. Still the line appears suspiciously low and Memphis has talent on their roster. The coaching edge belongs to FAU. Memphis did close well, winning 5 of their last 6 games. In one of the less attractive matchups of th Bowl season the call is for Memphis to pull the mild upset, winning 37-34, making MEMPHIS a 1 Star Selection and the OVER a 2 Star Selection .

SPORTS MEMO

Florida Atlantic -2.5 vs. Memphis O/U 67 Recommendation: Florida Atlantic
Friday, December 21, 8 pm EST (ESPN2) New Orleans,

At first glance, one might say that they have a hard time with a Sun Belt team favored over a squad from the more powerful CUSA. But after review, especially in this matchup, the difference between both teams is marginal at best. While Memphis may have slight edges in depth and overall talent, Florida Atlantic is not far behind and in some respects is better than the Tigers. We’ll start first with the competition both teams faced this season. FAU had five season losses, four of which came against BCS conference schools. Not only were these schools from power conferences, but they are all playing in bowl games this postseason. Memphis faced one BCS conference team (Ole Miss) and three teams headed to the postseason. Despite playing in the better conference, the level of competition for Memphis as a whole was considerably lower. So low that Memphis had one of the weakest strengths of schedule in the country. We’ll also remind you that the Sun Belt was actually rated slightly higher than Conference USA in the Jeff Sargin rankings. Now, we look at each
team’s strengths and weaknesses. Memphis can put the ball in the end zone. Quarterback Martin Hankins is very capable with nearly 3,000 yards passing and 21 touchdowns and head coach Tommy West is not afraid to abandon the run and let Hankins pass his way to victory. The Tigers’ two lowest rushing outputs of the season resulted in two of Hankins’ top threepassing games and more importantly two spread-covering wins. Defensively, Memphis had an extremely difficult time stopping the run, allowing over 200 yards per game despite playing in a league where two-thirds of the teams averaged below 175. The pass defense was average, allowing 230 yards per game, but as a whole, when a team allows opponents to pick up 6.1 yards per play, there is definite cause for concern. It is surprising Memphis did as well as they did given the numbers, but to their credit, they did an excellent job of taking care of the football with just 16 turnovers and a +9 turnover margin for the season. Florida Atlantic has a similarly effective quarterback in Rusty Smith. Smith was named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for 3,330 yards, 27 TDs and only eight INTs. The Owls mirror the Tigers in that they have a pass-first offense with rushing yards as a result of success through the air. Also careful with the football, FAU coughed it up only 14 times vs. forcing 33. Turnovers were the key in their upset win over Troy as they forced three Trojan miscues. As we sift through box scores and stat sheets, both these teams are almost identical in virtually every category. The schedules both featured wins against weaker foes, but the difference in non-conference play and the experience Florida Atlantic gained by playing tougher schools is reason enough to believe they are better seasoned for a win here. They’ll likely trade scores, but when it is all said and done, the Owls should come out on top.

WINNING POINTS

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
(December 21 at New Orleans)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC over MEMPHIS by 2

Some times bad teams can make for outstanding games, since they are quite happy
to still be playing at this time of the year, especially if making it to a bowl game was
not a big part of their prospectus back in August. That is what we have here, as
Howard Schnellenberger’s building process gets a fitting reward for a job well done,
while the Tigers turned around what could have been a most dismal season, saving
Tommy West his job in the process. But picking a winner is not easy because the
enthusiasm only masks the lack of quality. The Owls are here largely because they
were tied with Kansas for #1 in the nation in turnover differential, going +19. In
four games they did not commit a single turnover, and in four others they only gave
the ball away once. We will credit developing QB Rusty Smith for part of that, but
can not ignore the luck factor, which plays a major part when the ratio gets so
extreme. Meanwhile the Memphis season was categorized by the ability to escape
with close wins against weak opponents – at the end of regulation the Tigers only
led Conference USA weak sisters Marshall, Rice, Tulane and S.M.U. by a combined
seven points at the end of regulation, yet managed to turn that into a 4-0. It
shows how precarious the tight rope walk for this team was, and also exhibits how
ordinary they are. And given the fact that they have already been beaten by Sun
Belt members Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee, they genuinely deserve the
underdog role here. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 33-31.

POINTWISE:

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38 - Memphis 33 RATING: 5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (7-5) vs MEMPHIS (7-5)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO
Fla Atlantic . 37.2 ...30-34 ... 21-23 .. 127-180 ...286-238 .. +19 . Memphis
Memphis ..... 34.0 ...29-31 ... 24-23 .. 140-210 ...308-230 .. + 6 . by 3.7 Pts

ANALYSIS

From not even fielding a football team, prior to 2001, to a bowl game appearance
in 2007. That is simply an amazing accomplishment, but just the latest in the
storied career of its Hall of Fame head coach, Howard Schnellenberger, who is
best known for turning Miami of Florida into an annual national title contender, &
winning it all in '83. But he also was head man at Louisville, taking over a 2-9
team in '85, & leading them to a 10-1-1 record, including a 34-7 thumping of
Alabama in the '90 Fiesta Bowl. And, in Boca Raton, he has again performed his
collegiate magic. Not only have these Owls been rewarded with a holiday slot,
but Atlantic has a pair of 9-win seasons already under its belt (9-2 in '03, & 9-3 in
'04). The featured performer on this year's squad is QB Rusty Smith, who was
named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Week 4 times, with his prodigious overhead
accomplishments (256-of-447 for 3,352 yds, & 27 TDs, with just 8 INTs). In
the Owls' 42-39 win over then-dangerous Minnesota, he threw for a school record
463 yds & 5 TDs. And in Atlantic's season-ending 38-32 upset of Troy, he went
23-of-34 for 291 yds (2/0). Oh, and note a defense which thrives on the takeaway,
as FAU ranks #1 in the land in TO ratio (+19). Yes, the fastest start-up program
ever to make it to a bowl game. For the Tigers of Memphis, this marks their 4th
bowl reward in the past 5 seasons (all under HC Tommy West), & thus far, they've
performed decently (2-1, both SU & ATS). A slow start, attributed to the Bradford
tragedy, has turned into a 5-1 stretch drive, in which they've managed to outscore
their opponents, by a combined 215-205 score. That's right, the nation's 20th
"O", but 99th "D". Remember last year, when Troy won this game 41-17. Again.
HAVE A HEALTHY NEW YEAR PROPHECY: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38 - Memphis 33 RATING: 5

IndianCowboy

Sport: College Football
Game: Florida Atlantic Owls @ Memphis Tigers - Friday December 21, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Florida Atlantic Owls -2.5 (-111) (Normal)

Bowl Season will be a bit hectic. So, please continue to check for bowl selections as soon as I finish my research I will plug them into the backend. Please flat wager all of the bowl selections as I am looking to turn a profit flat wagering as I always do. I am likely to have a Bowl Game of the Year, depending on the research as it was Kentucky outright over Clemson last year and if I find a solid game to do this on, I will denote it. I have not capped the Basketball card for the following days so I cannot designate any bowl games as my POD without doing the Basketball card so simply know that my bowl picks will be coming throughout the season and I will keep it updated on the previous bowl pick. Let's have a great Bowl season. Thursday: Pass Friday: Florida Atlantic -2.5. There is simply no way I can do all the research and have an additional write-up. So, I will tack on the research and add a few words on the bottom. Thanks. Research on this game: There has been a small increase towards Florida Atlantic and the total has come slightly down for this game. Keep in mind this bowl is one of several that is in Louisiana. I have Florida Atlantic as a top 70 team and Memphis as a top 100 team and frankly a bit surprised to see Memphis in a bowl game this year. Florida Atlantic's most impressive win to me was on the road at Troy State when they beat a top 40 team outright as a 15 point underdog. This team has played a very difficult schedule with the likes of Florida, South Florida, Kentucky and even Oklahoma State. By no means did this team take it easy on themselves this year. Memphis's most impressive win was on the road at Southern Miss when they beat a top 80 team outright as 17 point underdogs. Florida Atlantic keep in mind has played 7 straight overs coming into this game as keep in mind if you feel that this game is going to be an offensive battle, than Florida Atlantic is the way to go. Keep in mind that in my power rankings I have Memphis not having defeated a top 75 team all year. I have Florida Atlantic as a top 50 team on offense and a top 90 team on defense as they are 19th in the nation in passing yards. Memphis is a strong offensive team as well as I have them as a top 30 offense and 12th in the nation in passing but they are outside the top 100 in overall on defense. I think this game likely goes over and Florida Atlantic is rated higher on my power ranking. I have them winning by 5+.

Bottom Line: The Bottom line here is that Florida Atlantic is a top 70 team in my book and Memphis has not beat a top 70 team all year as they are 0-2 against such teams and their last 4 of 5 wins come against teams outside the top 100. I look for this game to be similar to the one against East Carolina for Memphis as I like Florida Atlantic's strength of schedule to prevail in the end. The 25 spot power ranking differential is enough for me to take a shot on the Owls. The Owls of Florida Atlantic are 6-1 ATS on field turf and 5-2 ATS as favorites.

DR BOB - OPINION ONLY

Florida Atl. (-2.5) 36 Memphis 31 (at New Orleans Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 21-Dec-07 Despite being favored, Florida Atlantic isn’t getting enough respect in this game because they reside in the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, Conference USA, from which Memphis hails, was just as bad as the Sun Belt this season and Memphis is a horrible team whose best win came against a Southern Miss team that is about 5 points worse than an average Division 1A team. Memphis’ 7 wins have come against teams that are on average 17 ½ points worse than an average team. Florida Atlantic got to this bowl game by beating a good Troy State team that is a couple of points better than an average Division 1A team and the Owls played a schedule that was 9 points tougher than what Memphis played (and each team was 7-5). The Owls are led by sophomore star quarterback Rusty Smith, who averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith also threw just 8 interceptions on 447 passes (1.8%). Overall, Florida Atlantic is only 0.1 yards per play worse than an average Division 1A team on the offensive side of the ball with Smith in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That unit will have no trouble scoring against a horrible Memphis defense that gave up 6.2 yppl this season to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Memphis rates the same as Florida Atlantic on the offense side of the ball, as the Tigers have averaged 5.9 yppl with Martin Hankins behind center – against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Hankins, however, is more turnover prone than his counterpart, as he’s thrown picks on 3.1% of his passes this season. The difference in this game is defense – Memphis has a horrible defense and Florida Atlantic has a decent defense. The Owls have yielded a respectable 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so they are 1.3 yppl better than the Tigers’ stop unit.

My math model projects Florida Atlantic to out-gain Memphis 504 yards to 402 yards in this game while also having an advantage in predicted turnovers. The Owls do have horrible special teams, but their special teams are only 1.6 points worse than the Tigers poor special teams units. Overall the math model favors Florida Atlantic by 10 points and I’d love to play the Owls in this game. Unfortunately, Florida Atlantic applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation and a 1-18 ATS bowl situation and those angles will keep me from playing the Owls.

I’ll still lean with Florida Atlantic at -3 points or less.

NORTH COAST POWERSWEEP

1st ever meeting. This is Memphis’ 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU & ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson’s HC from ‘93-’98. Mem’s last bowl was the ‘05 Motor City (38-31 win) where RB D’Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238 yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ‘04 becoming the fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ‘01 when they didn’t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ‘93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich St, 18-7. He also won a Nat’l Championship with Miami in ‘83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU & ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem (0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17upperclassmen starters while FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2’) win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem’s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ‘03 they broke the nation’s longest bowl drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ‘03. FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR’s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5 players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all 5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6’2” 262 with 1 Sr starter and although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all’d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for 127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL’s Pinnick & Savidge (knee inj’s) but still played tough all’g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.8). The LB corps may be the best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20 straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19 ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all’g 34 ppg and 417 ypg. Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7 ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6’ or taller & 5 had 30+ catches led by Calhoun (6’4”) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6’8”) who had two 100+ yd games in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6’4” 301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all’g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9). The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the 3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority). This ssn they all’d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6’3” 258 with no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ‘08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.8). The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all’g 230 ypg (62%) with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings. Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for the “home run” ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the L/6 games, both Mem & FAU’s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2*

Vegas Hotsheet

Florida Atlantic 35
Memphis 38

MEMPHIS +3

MARC LAWRENCE'S CFB EARLY BOWL PHONE picks

3* Memphis +3 Buy 1/2 Point To Get To +3

Marc's playbook bowl report

New Orleans Bowl
Memphis by 3

Fla Atlantic Coach Schnellenberger 4-0 SU as bowler
Memphis Dog 4-0 L4 Tigers / Sun Belt Conference games

Memphis over Fla Atlantic by 3

Howard Schnellenberger’s surprising Owls whipped Troy, 38-32, as 16-point road dogs to win the Sun Belt title and earn the program’s first-ever bowl bid. A 2-4 start by Memphis put some heat on coach Tommy West but the Tigers rallied down the stretch to reach their fourth bowl in the past fi ve seasons. Despite Howie’s 4-0 SU record in postseason play, we can’t back a Virgin Bowl Favorite that went 0-4 SU & ITS (In The Stats) against the fi ve bowl squads they faced this year. We’re aware that C-USA bowlers are just 8-18 SUATS versus a foe off a SU win but the like the Tigers’ experience and the fact they were a ‘mission team’ that delivered the goods.

BIG AL Y

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers plus the points over Florida Atlantic, as Memphis falls into systems of mine that are 105-38, 18-5, 43-16. And, if the pointspread moves up a bit from its current level, then Memphis would fall into 50-18 and 70-29 ATS systems as well. Let's take a look at our 105-38 ATS angle. This system plays against certain teams playing away from home that pulled an upset win as a 6-point (or bigger) underdog in their previous game. In its previous game, Florida Atlantic upset Troy State 38-32 as a 16-point underdog. But teams off outright wins as a double digit dog are money-burners in the Bowl games, including a dismal 3-8 ATS off back to back wins. And Florida Atlantic is an awful 0-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes away from home since Sept 10, 2005. Take Memphis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

LEE STERLING

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis, Florida Atlantic -2

MIGHTY QUINN

Fla At - 2 1/2

Larry Ness

20* CBB Tourney Game of the Month (71% ATS in CBB since Dec 4!)

My 20* play is on Wyoming at 11:20 ET. Buffalo is a strange team. Not a single player is averaging in double digits but NINE players average between 5.4 and 9.8 PPG. The team's leading scorer in a non-starter in guard Smiley (9.8), while its leading rebounder is NOT the team's biggest player, the 6-9 Fedotov (6.3-3.6) but rather 6-3 guard Betts, another non-starter. Meanwhile, Wyoming returns an excellent backcourt duo from last year, Ewing (19.9-3.2-3.1) and Jones (18.1-5.1-4.5). The duo's numbers are slightly down this year, Ewing's at 17.4-3.1-5.5 and Jones' at 13.8-6.9-3.8, but not by much. Up front, 6-11 soph Travis Nelson (just 1.7 PPG last year) is getting better by the game, scoring 26 points in his last two games, while upping his average TY to 8.5 PPG. Two 6-8 players, Dermody (12.0-5.5) and Taylor (7.5-7.0) are joined by swingman Platt (6.0), giving the Cowboys a much better frontcourt than Buffalo, as well. The Bulls won their season-opener at Storrs vs Ohio Valley (89-82) but have since lost all four road games TY. Of course losses at U Conn (by 25) and Pitt (by 47) are excusable but they also lost at Niagara (by 17) and Fla-Intl (by 13). This is a neutral site game (El Paso), but Wyoming has WAY too much talent for Buffalo in this one! Tourney Game of the Month 20* Wyoming.

Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, our NBA Non Conference Game of the Month is on the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points over Indiana, as Minny falls into a 54-14 ATS system of mine that plays against certain teams off three or more ATS wins. The Pacers have won three consecutive games (both SU and ATS) but have not won four or more games in a row since February 2006. One of the problems this season for Indiana has been its defense, ranked 26th in the league at 103.8 ppg. Minnesota might also catch a break tonight, as Indy's playmaker, Jamaal Tinsley, missed Wednesday's game after suffering a deep thigh bruise, and he's questionable to play tonight. Tinsley is averaging 14.8 points, 8.7 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Minnesota has covered five of its last eight, and also swept the season series last year vs. Indiana, holding the Pacers to an average of 76 ppg. Earlier in the year, the Timberwolves' big problem was on the defensive end, as they routinely allowed their foe to shoot 46% or better. Indeed, in their first 11 games, eight of their opponents shot at least 46% from the floor. But Minny has tightened things up on defense of late, and has held seven of its last eight foes to under 46% FG shooting, which explains its 5-3 ATS run. I look for an inspired effort tonight in front of the home folks at the Target Center, and an upset win. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

LEE STERLING

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis, Florida Atlantic -2