OC Dooley
“1 UNIT” COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM TOTAL (West Virginia at South Florida UNDER 56 in a 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN2): I admit that West Virginia enters tonight’s contest ranked #2 nationally in rushing offense led by the lethal combination of RB Steve Slaton and QB Pat White. But in a shocking home upset loss a year ago, the South Florida defense held that tandem to a grand total of only 60 yards on the ground in an amazing performance. To give you an idea how good the Bulls defense is in 2008, defensive end George Selvie just happens to lead the entire nation right now with 8’ SACKS of opposing quarterbacks! If South Florida has any chance at upsetting the #4 ranked Mountaineers again this evening, they know that they must win the time/possession battle on offense with sustained drives that will keep the West Virginia high-octane attack off the field as long as possible. For the hometown Bulls to achieve this feat they will have to primarily RUN the football. Coming into this season the main weakness of West Virginia was supposed to be their defense which a week ago allowed only SEVEN total points. This may come as a shock to many of you but the Mountaineers come into tonight’s nationally televised battle with a #15 ranked unit on DEFENSE so this game may be a lot lower scoring than most think. My database research indicates that South Florida is a staggering 13-4 UNDER the total in the past 17 games played in front of the HOME fans. I will wrap this up with a mind boggling “24-3”SYSTEM which in the past five years has been downright automatic. This system takes teams like South Florida after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers UNDER the total (49’-to-56 points) against an opponent like West Virginia off 3 consecutive games with a turnover ratio of PLUS-ONE or better. Do I hear 25-3 anyone?! Note that in the past two years in this series the losing side has been held to low point counts of 19 and 13 which means this total is too high.
Big Al
At 8 pm, our Friday Night Game of the Month is on the South Florida Bulls plus the points over West Virginia.
Last year, the Bulls went into Morgantown and upset the Mountaineers 24-19 as 21-point underdogs. A lot of folks will play WVU for the revenge angle, but I'm going the other way, and will side with South Florida. Last week, WVU blasted East Carolina 48-7, but off that blowout win, the Mountaineers fall into negative 19-34, 14-54, and 19-40 ATS situations. Let's take a look at our 34-19 angle. What we want to do is play AGAINST any unrested road favorite that scored 40+ points and gave up 10 or less points in its previous game, provided it also won two games back, and is now matched up against a conference foe off a SU win. And if our road favorite has revenge, then our 34-19 angle moves to a perfect 5-0 ATS. Take South Florida. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie
Chuck Franklin
1500 WEST VIRIGINIA
Do I expect to see the # 5 ranked West Virginia come out with revenge on their minds and blow South Florida off the field? Yes I do. The Mountaineers are ranked second in the nation in rushing offense, led by their All-American running back Steve Slaton. This Heisman candidate is the NCAA’s third leading scorer, and he has his own reasons to come out strong against the Bulls of South Florida, as he was held to only 43 yards in last year’s upset loss to USF in Morgantown. He will definitely be anxious to improve on that performance while defeating South Florida at home by a large margin. The Mounties are a profitable 13-3-1 as road favorites, and are one of only two teams to beat South Florida at home since 2005. The Bulls are a lukewarm 5-4 ATS in their last nine games as the listed underdog, which is yet another reason to side with West Virginia.
C-Stars Sports Picks
50 Units West Virginia Minus the points Over South Florida When West Virginia team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Last 5 years 13-3 ATS in this spot. When West Virginia team played as a Road team - After a non conference game - Last 3 years 5-0 ATS in this spot. When West Virginia team played as a Road team - Vs Big East opponent - Last 4 years 10-3 ATS in this spot. When West Virginia team played as a Road team - Last 5 years - Coming off a Home win 9-3 ATS in this spot.