Dr Bob
S. FLORIDA (-3.5) 26 Kansas 23
This ought to be a very revealing game, as I have questions about both teams. Kansas was an underrated squad last season and were better than most people gave them credit for. The loss of big play receiver Marcus Henry has greatly affected the Jayhawks’ pass attack, which has been just 0.3 yards per pass play better than average after two games so far, which is about where I had them rated coming into the season. The rushing attack has been a major disappointment so far, averaging just 3.9 yards per rushing play against Florida International and Louisiana Tech. I do the rushing attack to be at least average with Jake Sharp having run for 1001 career yards at 5.4 ypr (just 3.2 ypr this year) and Angus Quigley has averaged 6.0 ypr in his limited career action. South Florida is an outstanding defensive team, but the Bulls had to replace two very good cornerbacks and I think they can be beaten through the air if sack master George Selvie doesn’t put too much heat on KU quarterback Todd Reesing. South Florida quarterback Matt Grothe had a down year last season, but he looks like he’s back at his 2006 level, which was 1.1 yards per pass play better than average. The Bulls also have a solid rushing attack, but they’ll be tested by a very stingy Kansas defense that returned 9 starters from a unit that yielded just 4.5 yards per play last season (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My ratings favor South Florida by 2 ½ points, so I’ll lean slightly with Kansas plus the points.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ South Florida
2. 50,000♦ Rays
3. 50,000♦ Rangers
1. South Florida- Love this match up for the Bulls, as they thrive in this setting (against a ranked opponent, at home, on national TV), and I expect they'll be in top form this Friday hosting Kansas. Remember guys, not only are the Bulls 50-11 SU over their last 61 games at Raymond James Stadium (9-2 ATS over their last 11 at home), but also 6-2 ATS against their last 8 against ranked opponents under coach Leavitt! But enough about the trends, let's get to the match ups...
I can understand why the public has fallen in love with Todd Reesing and this high-octane Jayhawks attack, but back-to-back blowout wins over cupcake opponents mean absolutely NOTHING in this contest. In fact, Kansas may come into this game riding a little high, and that's the last thing you want to do against a very talented Bulls stop-unit. Look for Reesing to run into trouble for the first time this season, as a speedy USF defense wrecks havoc on the timing-based Kansas passing attack.
I know plenty of people saw South Florida struggle to put away Central Florida, and all of a sudden, everyone loves the Jayhawks tonight. That's an overreaction for two reasons: A. It was their road opener, against a highly motivated rival (that game was super bowl for Central Florida players). And B. The Bulls dominated the game statistically, 504 total yards to 226 total yards, showing prowess on both sides of the ball. Look guys, the only thing the Bulls sub-par effort against Central Florida did was drive down the price on tonight's match up, which is just fine by me!
Finally, for all the talk about the Jayhawks at home, its no secret they are not the same team when they travel, especially early on, going 2-9 SU in road openers. With the public all over the Jayhawks in this one, don't buy into the hype, as the Bulls and dual-threat QB Matt Grothe are more than capable of defending their house. In the end, this is a HUGE game for South Florida, and much like they did last season against West Virginia, they'll deliver in spite of the public's love for the visitor! Bulls roll!
Take South Florida over Kansas as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rays- If the Rays want to cement their hold on the AL East crown, they can take a big step forward tonight at Yankee Stadium. After getting swept in Toronto, the Rays rebounded by taking 2 of 3 at Fenway in a critical series with the 2nd place Red Sox. Now as they move onto their next series in the Bronx, look for Tampa Bay to kick the Yankees while their down, adding to their 2.5 game lead over Boston.
The sputtering Yankees return home after a tough road trip, that ended with them losing 3 of their last 4 overall, as their offense was nowhere to be found. Herein lies the problem for New York, as reigniting their slumping bats will be tough work against the Rays Matt Garza, who was tremendous in a losing effort at Toronto in his last start, allowing 1 run over 7 strong innings. He's now posted a 2.29 ERA over his last 3 starts, including a tough loss to the Yankees September 2nd. Look for a much better effort this go-around, as the Yankees have clearly lost focus with the playoffs now a distant memory, and it showed in their series against the Angels.
Another big problem for the Yankees is the play of their starter Sidney Ponson, who after tempting Yankees-backers with some solid efforts, reverted back to his true self (just like I told you he would), posting a disgusting 11.29 ERA over his last 4 starts! Sure, he was decent against soft-hitting Seattle in his last start, but he won't be nearly as lucky tonight.
Finally, did you know Yankees are just 11-18 at Yankee Stadium against right-handed starters under the lights! Garza was damn good at Toronto in his last one, and after watching the Yankees struggle in Anaheim, look for another strong effort by the Rays righty here tonight. In the end, the Yankees are sputtering to the finish, and with Ponson getting the start, there's little hope for a turnaround tonight!
Take the Rays behind Garza over the NY Yankees and Ponson in this MLB match up.
3. Rangers- With the way the Rangers are hitting lately, coupled with a relatively even pitching match up, I see little hope for soft-hitting Oakland club in this match up.
First and foremost, you have to be impressed by the young southpaw Harrison, who after struggling to find his groove, is now pitching well, going 2-0 with a 4.42 ERA over his last 3 starts. He was especially strong in his last road start, at the Royals, allowing just 1 run over 6 2/3 innings, and I believe he can do much of the same against similarly sorry Athletics offense in this one. Let's not forget, he got the win at Oakland back on July 26th, allowing 1 earned over 5 innings!
Second, although his ERA is more than a run and half lower than Harrison's on the season (5.76 compared to 4.05), lefty Greg Smith has not been particularly effective of late, going 2-2 with a 4.88 ERA over his last 4 starts. True, he was great at Baltimore in his last one, tossing 7 scoreless. However, that came after getting torched by the Twins at home for 8 runs in 5 innings... So don't tell me Smith is pitching well, because he's been far too inconsistent. Not to mention, the last time he pitched a great game (at Seattle August 21st), he followed that up with two disgusting starts, including that home effort against Minnesota! Trust him in this spot if you like, but I simply can't against this high-powered Rangers offense.
Finally, speaking of the offenses, you have to give the nod to the Rangers. True, the one spot they do not particualry produce well is against lefties on the road (although batting .338 vs lefties L10 games), but fact of the matter is Oakland is just as anemic against lefties at home. With Hamilton red-hot, and rookies Arias and Davis delivering, look for Texas to power past the A's once again here tonight. Also note, a good start here by Harrison could guarantee his spot in the rotation next year, and that's excellent motivation for the young lefty... Look for him to pitch accordingly tonight!
Take the Rangers behind Harrison over the Athletics and Smith in late MLB action.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -168
The Marlins have made it their job to destroy the Nats and that demolition continues tonight. The Nationals are a pathetic 2-12 in the last 14 meetings and just 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Florida . The Nationals are a terrible 21-46 in their last 67 vs. a team with a winning record and 16-35 in their last 51 road games. The Marlins are 4-1 in Olsen's last 5 starts vs. the Nationals. Take Florida at home.
--------------------------------------------
Bob Majors
CWS (-150) vs DET
Detroit Tigers travel to Chicago White Sox in an evening game. John Danks is scheduled starter for Sox going against Justin Verlander for Tiger.
Sox are 24-5 last 29 games against teams with a losing record. This season Danks is 2-0 in 12.2 innings with 3.55 ERA against Tigers while Verlander is 1-4 in 34.0 innings with 6.09 ERA against Sox.
This is a very important game for Sox to maintain slim lead in AL Central. Take Sox to prevail !
------------------------------------------------
SportsKingz
MLB
Tampa Bay
CFB
Kansas / S.Florida UNDER 48.5
--------------------------------------------------
Ben Burns
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Jays enter this critical series on a major roll. This is a tough matchup for them though. For starters, the Red Sox are 49-21 at home on the season. That includes a 7-4 mark in Wakefield's 11 starts here. The veteran knuckleballer has a very solid 3.42 ERA and a 1.155 WHIP in those games. Purcey goes for the Jays and he's coming off a great start. However, that was at home. On the road, he's gone 1-3 with a 5.71 ERA. He'll face a Red Sox lineup which averages 5.4 runs per game vs. southpaws and 5.8 runs per game here at home. The Sox know they can put away the pesky Jays once and for all with a big series here. Look for them to start it off with a victory. Consider Boston
--------------------------------------------------
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Rare chance to grab the Red Sox at a decent price at home. Boston is 22-4 as home favorite of -150 to -200 and maybe more impressive is the fact that they are 42-16 at Fenway off a loss. Toronto has won 11 of 12 and has a winning record vs. the Red Sox this year, but when they are on a winning streak of 6-2 or 7-1, they are just 9-23 in their next game over the last two seasons. Take Boston.
--------------------------------------------------
Sammy Jankus, the Reverse Barometer!
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeup. 😀
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees 7:05 PM ET
3* NY YANKEES (+107)
No doubt about it... the Yankees are TOAST. If big, bad Boston can't slow down the streaking Rays, how are the Bronx Bunglers going to pull it off? The fact that New York has been made the home dog here tells me the linemaker has total confidence in Tampa Bay's ability to ring the register. I'll gladly lay the small price with the superior Rays – so your play is on the NY YANKEES.
--------------------------------------------------
Nelly
Cincinnati + over Arizona
Something is clearly wrong with Brandon Webb and the Diamondbacks are on a great free fall. Webb has an ERA of 12.51 in his last three starts and he has thrown away his Cy Young candidacy as well as his team’s playoff chances. Arizona has lost six straight games and the offense has not scored more than four runs in any of the last eight games.
Cincinnati has won five of the last seven games and the Reds are averaging six runs per game in the past ten contests. In the last ten games the Reds are hitting .279 compared with just .224 for Arizona. The Reds have also won six of the past seven meetings between these teams including beating Brandon Webb last season.
Johnny Cueto has been a forgotten pitcher after falling off his incredible early start but he has been effective for the Reds. Cueto has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts and he has very low walk totals for a hard-throwing young pitcher. Cincinnati has had great success in series openers and given that Arizona is just 3-13 in the last 16 games the Reds are worth a shot as a nearly 2 to 1 underdog.
-------------------------------------------------------
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Pittsburgh Pirates (-110)
2 Units - Royals/Indians Over 7 (-120)
2 Units - Kansas/USF Over 48
-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCK OF THE DAY
Today's Lock: Kansas Jayhawks +3.5
Kansas has a very good chance of winning this game. They finished ranked #7 in the country last year. They return 9 starters on defense! They have a very good quarterback in Todd Reesing. They have looked strong in their first two games so far this year. Kansas is solid! South Florida needed overtime to win their game last week. They were huge favorites in that game - this team might not be as good as advertised. The Big 12 is a much stronger conference. We like Kansas plus the points tonight.
------------------------------------------
Thanks bigdaveyt haven't seen his plays in awhile
No problem. I was torn between Kansas and SF, so I paid the 25 bucks. He's pretty good with top rated plays.
Jack Clayton
5* Baylor
4* South Florida
Matt Fargo
2-Units South Florida
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
KANSAS vs SOUTH FLORIDA
Play: SOUTH FLORIDA -3.5 (POD)
WASHINGTON STATE vs BAYLOR
Play: BAYLOR -3
Triple Threat Sports
4* South Florida
Power Play Wins
SOUTH FLORIDA -3.5
Oscarxena Sports
Kansas/South Florida Over 48 1/2 -1.10 (3 Unit Play)
The place that I play has this game at 47 1/2 minus bigger juice but there is not a lot of money available so for grading purposes of this wager I will use the readily available number of 48 1/2. This should be a great game this evening as both of these teams are ranked. Kansas has gotten off to a good start by beating two cupcakes at home in Florida International and Louisiana Tech but an alarming trend for them is that they were unable to run the ball effectively averaging 3.6 YPC against FIU and 3.8 YPC against Tech. Since South Florida has been dominant in stopping the run so far this year against their two opponents I believe that Reesing will have to be passing the ball tonight as that is where the weakness of South Florida's defense lies. This should lead to either turnovers or points which is what we want anyway when we take Overs. South Florida is similar as there run game has not been great so far but their passing game has been tremendous with the return of a healthy Matt Grothe. Kansas does have one hell of a defense with nine starters returning but they are playing a much better team here than they have faced so far this year. This game may also be very tight so OT is always a possibility which leads to more points as well. I really think this game goes Over and if it was on any other night but Friday I would up this to a bigger play. Offenses rule this evening in South Florida!
MLB
Washington +1.57 (3 Unit Play)
Indiancowboy
Minnesotta Lynx -1 (POD)
Solid win yesterday with UNC Winning Outright on the road, let's keep it rolling today with the Beaver Ball Selection. Phoenix beat this team by 7 at home earlier this year and Minny beat this team by 11 at home earlier this year as well. Minny comes off a 10 point win over Indiana at home so they look to make it back to back victories here. Keep in mind Phoenix comes off the road loss to Detroit after winning 3 in a row at home and Minny comes off 4 straight road losses so they are trying to recoup some wins at home. The line sits at -2.5 and I expect the public to jump over Phoenix to the tune of 60%+ but wouldn't be surprised to see a Minny cover. The bottom line is I know Minny is a bit banged up, but Phoenix has been awful on the road thus far and Minny comes back home after a tough road trip and they need to start racking up some wins at home fast or they can kiss the postseason good bye. While the public jumps on the Mercury here, let's go the other way with the Lynx getting it done at home with revenge and the crowd behind them.
Bob Balfe
South Florida -3.5 over Kansas
Both teams come into this game 2-0 and in similar positions. The nation does not really know if either team is underrated or overrated. Kansas had a very easy schedule last year and has yet to play a significant opponent this year. USF is lucky to have been in a close game this year and I think that will really help them in a game like this. Matt Grothe is a great QB who can pass and run with the ball. I believe Grothe will confuse Kansas all night and when they pressure him he will step back and hit a receiver with wide open TD. South Florida has a great defense and should get the win and cover tonight. Take South Florida.
Major League Baseball
Reds +180 over DBacks
Savannah Sports
3 Units on Baylor -3.5
KELSO
High Rollers
15 units - Padres -1.5
Best Bets Baseball
5 units Twins
4 units Detroit/White Sox Over
15 units Kansas
Andre Gomes
Double-Dime Bet
Atlanta Dream @ Seattle Storm
We are in a nice run in the WNBA, cashing the WNBA Game of the year, then a double dime play yesterday on Indiana, which were both very solid plays. Today I've again a great spot, so this will be also a best bet, something I don't usually do in my capping management, but the motives for this play are strong enough for me to break this "rule".
Atlanta comes from a tremendous upset at LA, where they won by 83-72, while being a 15 points underdog!!! This win was easily the upset of the season and today they will have a very favorable spot for this game and with the oddmakers setting them once again with an huge line on their favor: 14 points underdog.
Let's start with Seattle first. The team with yesterday's result has assured the 2nd place in the West. No matter what happens until the end of the regular season, they will always be 2nd in the conference and having next Sunday a game against their probable opponents in the first round of the playoffs, it's normal that today the team will have an extended rotation, in order to rest their starters for them to prepare for next Sunday's game and for the postseason. So, I don't expect the Storm to be at their usual level of competitiveness, something I expect from Atlanta tonight.
The Dream have been very good in covering high spreads lately, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a double digits underdog and they are 4-1 ATS this season while being a 12,5+ points underdog. The team comes from a rare win yesterday and with them having a young roster, this works as a very strong motivation factor. Just remember they had just won 3 games this season before yesterday and they are 3-0 ATS after a win this season. On the other side, this will be the last game of the season for them and after having won yesterday, the team will come fired up for today, knowing that this will be their season finale. They are 4-29 SU this season and the league's worst record ever is 5-29. A win today would give them the same record Chicago had in their first season on the league and in that way, they wouldn't be the worst team ever. But there is another motivation factor for Atlanta tonight. Lennox and Castro Marques were the two main reasons why the team won yesterday with 21 and 23 points respectively. Today they will be more motivated than ever, not only for yesterday's performance, but also because they are former players of the Storm and they will want to play their best on their comeback to Seattle. So, I expect a good performance by Atlanta today, with them being extremely competitive in this ballgame.
I'm not saying that they will win outright, but having in account they are a 14 points underdog in this game, the line gives us enough margin for the competitiveness I expect the Dream to show today. Just remember they covered the spread in their last 3 games and that they are in a good moment right now. Take Atlanta in here, as my Double Dime Play. WNBA Underdog Game of the Year!
DOUBLE DIME PLAY ON ATLANTA + 14