BIG AL
Our Friday night NBA selection is on the Miami Heat plus the points at the San Antonio Spurs.
Last year, Manu Ginobili led the Spurs in scoring with over 19 ppg, but the Argentine superstar won't be in uniform for Gregg Popovich's crew for the first two months after having surgery to repair his ankle. His absence has hampered a Spurs team that struggles to score last season without Ginobili on the court.
In their first four games this season the Spurs are 0-4 ATS. Last year, Ginobili missed eight games, and the Spurs were 3-5 ATS in those games. The previous season, Manu missed seven games, and San Antonio was 1-6 ATS. And he also missed three games in April of the 2005-2006 season with the Spurs failing to cover all three of those games.
Indeed, San Antonio's performance without Ginobili (4-18 ATS last 22 missed games) is a lot worse than the games in which either Tim Duncan or Tony Parker failed to play. And if the Spurs were involved in a competitively priced game with a pointspread of eight points or less, the Manu-less Spurs are 1-15, 6% ATS since April 2006. Take Miami.
Pick: Heat +6½
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -3
The Atlanta Hawks may be the surprise team in the league to this point. Atlanta gave the Boston Celtics a run for their money last season in the opening round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs by forcing a Game 7, and that momentum has carried right over into the start of the 2008 season. Despite starting the season 3-0 this year, the Hawks are still getting no respect as just a 3-point home favorite against the Toronto Raptors Friday. Joe Johnson scored 24 points as Atlanta had five players in double figures during Wednesday's 87-79 victory at the New Orleans Hornets. Johnson leads the team in scoring at 28.0 points per contest. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. I will gladly ride the Hawks’ bandwagon tonight as a small home favorite when they have yet to lose a game. The Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Raptors are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games as well. Atlanta continues to be underrated tonight despite their fast start. Cash in with the Hawks as the favorite.
Jeff Benton
The only thing that went right for me Thursday was my free-play winner on Maryland-Virginia Tech UNDER the total. I’m now 4-2 with freebies in November, and I look to build on that streak Friday by backing the Rockets minus the points against the Clippers.
No doubt, last night’s stunning overtime loss in Portland – Brandon Roy made a fall-away 30-footer at the buzzer to pull out a 101-99 win – has to sting for the Rockets, who have now dropped consecutive games to the Blazers and Celtics by a total of six points. But if ever there was a perfect tonic for Houston, it’s the pathetic Clippers. Los Angeles has lost 12 in a row going back to last season, including the first five to start this year. During this 12-game slide, the Clippers are 1-11 ATS, failing to cash in all five losses this season.
The worst of those 12 losses may have come on Wednesday night against the Lakers, when the Clippers played their rivals tight for 3½ quarters … then watched as the Lakers went on a 22-0 run turn an 81-79 deficit into a 106-88 blowout win. If there was ever a game that summed up the Clippers pathetic history, it was that one!
And despite what happened to Houston last night, I just can’t see this being the game that the Clippers get over the hump. After all, they’ve lost five straight and eight of the last 10 to Houston, with the Rockets cashing in each of the last four. Last season, the teams met three times and Houston won by margins of 17 and 26 in Los Angeles and by 22 at home. The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these squads, and the Clippers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games. Pretty easy call here. Lay the chalk.
3♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Hawks at home.
I am not truly thinking that Mike Woodson's Hawks are going to win an NBA Championship in the near future or anything but the way things have been going early on why not back them here at Philips Arena!?!?!?
Atlanta is a phenomenal 3-0 and coming off of that brilliant outright victory in New orleans against Chris Paul and one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the Hornets. These guys fell down by right around 25 in the previous game against a solid 76ers team and scratched their way back for the win there. And in the opener as the 8 point dog destroyed Dwight Howard and the Magic down south.
Having a training camp under their belts with Mike Bibby has been huge and this team really is pretty good right now.
Obviously the Hawks will come back down to Earth a bit and Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'Neal and the Raptors have the potential to assist in that process but with everything coming up roses for the Hawks thus far, and against quality competition, I'll roll with them. After all the ATL does boast talent with Bibby, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and others and at home with a high level of confidence are really not laying all that much here.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Charlotte Bobcats +7.5
It has taken some time for the Bobcats to get accustomed to new head coach Larry Brown’s system, but this young team is starting to show signs of life. Each member of the starting five scored at least 13 points in a 3-point loss to the Knicks las time out, and rookie D.J. Augustin came off the bench to add 14. But 18 turnovers cost the Bobcats’ a chance to win, and we look for Charlotte to take much better care of the ball at home tonight against the New Orleans Hornets. Brown has his team buying into the fact that defense wins championships. The Bobcats have already showed improvement on this side of the floor, holding their opponents to 96.2 points per game. The Bobcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Hornets are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Charlotte and the points Friday.
Drew Gordon
Miami +6' at SAN ANTONIO
While we've seen two very different Miami team's - great at home, terrible on the road - this contest gives them the oppurtunity to test their mettle against a suddenly beatable San Antonio team. Problem for the Spurs is they've been bad wherever they've played thus far this season, including losses to Dallas and Phoenix in their only two home games.
We can trace the Spurs problem to one reason, the injury to Manu Ginobili, their do-everything shooting guard. Without him, the Spurs have been forced to rely on Parker and Duncan WAY too much, making them a two-man team. This bodes well for Miami because they match up well at those positions, with super athletic rookie PG Mario Chalmers (9 steals against 76ers in last one) covering Parker and a bevy of forwards to throw at Duncan.
Also, let's not forget the one equalizer and that's Dwayne Wade, who broke out with 29 points, 6 assists, 7 rebounds, and 5 steals in his last one! Wade can surely take advantage of a much slower Michael Finley in this one, and that again bodes well for the Heat. Also, while people talk about Duncan being a match up problem, the Heat's Beasely also poses issues for Popovich, who has to be careful not to let the high-scoring rookie get his bigmen into foul trouble.
Bottom line, while I still believe the Spurs will win this game at home, I just don't see how they put away a Heat team that matches up particularly well with them, especially without Ginobili in the lineup. Heat have been aching to prove they get it done on the road, and a short-handed Spurs team is just what the doctor ordered!
Take Miami plus the points over San Antonio in this NBA match up.
2♦ MIAMI
Stephen Nover
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies
Quietly Memphis is establishing itself as one of the better defenses in the NBA. Compliments to Marc Ivaroni. The Grizzlies rank fourth in defense, yielding 88.2 points. They have allowed triple-digits just once in five games.
The Warriors are all about offense. Defense trumps offense.
Golden State also is dealing with numerous distractions from front office comings and goings to trade rumors swirling around disgruntled Al Harrington.
In a battle of the league's two youngest teams, I'll take the points with a Grizzlies squad that has good chemistry right now and is playing hard on defense.
Info Plays
3* on Utah Jazz -11.5
Reason why Utah covers the spread Friday:
1.) Even without starting point guard Deron Williams, visiting teams are having trouble defeating the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. Utah looks to win its fifth straight game - fourth at home - when it hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. The Jazz went a league-best 37-4 at home last season and have started the new campaign with three straight wins on their home floor. Utah won all four meetings with the Seattle Supersonics last season, who have now changed their name to the Oklahoma City Thunder. They won their last 3 meetings with this franchise by at least 14 points each time.
2.) Utah is outscoring their opponents by 12.2 points/game this season while Oklahoma City is getting outscored by 8.3 points/game. Oklahoma City’s only win came against the Minnesota Timberwolves at home where they had to come from 12 points back to pull off the win. Utah is not a team that relinquishes leads, especially not at home.
3.) Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 25-9 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 20-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. This is a Jazz team that refuses to lose at home. They are not about to let the Thunder walk into their building and come away feeling good about themselves Friday. Bet Utah at home.
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Today's Free Pick is Nevada & Fresno Under 71
Maddux Sports Staff
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-SportsAction365.com- FREE PICKS Newsletter for Friday, November 7, 2008
FREE NBA WINNER
11/7/08
Dallas @ Denver
Prediction: UNDER 203
Time: 10:30 PM EST
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