Chris Jordan
Charlotte at ATLANTA -8
Little Southern flair with Charlotte and Atlanta hookin' up in the A-T-L, where a couple of my boys on the scorephone are spouting the very best information in the business, where they're reveling in last night's G-Tech blowout of Miami and where the 'Cats and Hawks should soar past the total tonight.
After all, the Hawks opened the season with six-straight wins and are now 1-4 in their last five. So if they're looking for the perfect opportunity to take some frustration out and score some points, Charlotte is the perfect team to do it against.
Charlotte went 11-30 on the road last season, including a pair of losses at Philips Arena, so the Hawks should be confident.
On the other side of the scoreboard, you might be wondering how the 'Cats will score points if they can't compete with Atlanta, right? Confidence is within these Bobcats too, as they're 11-5 all-time against Atlanta, with victories in five of the last seven meetings.
Involving the Hawks, the over is on runs of 11-3 when they're at home, 6-1 when they're playing the Eastern Conference, 7-1 when they're at hosting teams that lose on the road and 5-1 overall.
1♦ OVER Bobcats/Hawks
Karl Garrett
Yale at PORTLAND -10
Tonight look for the Pilots to avenge an 18-point loss to the Elis from last January.
Yale is making the cross-country trek off a shocking 89-58 loss to Vermont, and now they must face a Portland team that does return 7 of their 8 top-scorers from a season ago, and has already knocked off PAC 10 Washington, 80-74 on this floor 6 days ago.
Early indications are that Portland could be one of this year's top turnaround teams, as the Pilots only won 9 games a season ago, but the fact they are returning so many starters, and 7 of their 8 top scorers leads the G-Man to believe they will be able to avenge last season's 88-70 loss at Yale.
Always tough to play out-of-conference on the road, and even tougher when you have to travel nearly 3,000 miles to do so.
Lay the points as the Pilots pound the Elis.
2♦ PORTLAND
Jeff Benton
Friday's selection is on Duke over Michigan in the Coaches vs. Cancer college hoops championship game.
I backed Michigan against UCLA last night, but I never thought the Wolverines were actually going to pull off the outright upset over the fourth-ranked team in the country as a nine-point underdog. I think Michigan is going to be much improved in the second year under coach John Beilein and I’ll be looking to support them in certain situations … but tonight isn’t one of them, because this is a bad matchup against Duke.
The reason? Size. The Blue Devils last night proved what a difference-maker height can be, as they shot terribly in the first half against Southern Illinois and yet rolled to an 83-58 victory, as they nearly doubled the Salukis in the rebounding department (40-22). Three of Duke’s four wins have been blowouts of 25, 43 and 31 points, and in all three of those games the Devils held a massive rebounding advantage (36-23, 56-31 and 40-22). In their one close contest – an 82-79 home win over Rhode Island that they really should’ve lost – the Blue Devils got outrebounded 27-23.
Meanwhile, Michigan beat UCLA despite pulling down just 21 rebounds (to 32 for the Bruins) on 59 missed shots. Also, the Wolverines, who rely heavily on the three-point shot, missed 20 of 25 shots from long range at the Garden last night, while Duke went 7-for-16 on 3s against Southern Illinois. Then again, that’s hardly surprising because the Blue Devils play at least one game each year in their home-away-from-home so they’re comfortable shooting in the cavernous arena, and they always have the crowd edge. That won’t change in this game tonight.
Duke has won six straight meetings against Michigan, going 5-1 ATS, and that includes a 95-67 rout as a 24-point home chalk last year. There’s no way the Blue Devils repeat that 28-point trouncing today against an improving Wolverines squad, but they’ll dominate the glass and still win this one comfortably.
3♦ DUKE
Matt Rivers
For Friday take Fresno State on the gridiron.
The season as a whole has been half a disaster for Pat Hill's Bulldogs and laying points on the road is never the greatest theory. Plus Boise State is on deck created a possible look ahead situation but how can you pass up Fresno State in this spot!?!??!
San Jose State is not as dreadful as in years' past when they were a total doormat but the Spartans had a big chance against Boise State about a month ago and looked horrific. SJSU could not even muster a first down until basically the second half. No doubt the Broncos are extremely stout defensively and ovferall far superior to today's opponent in Fresno but all in all the Bulldogs are still the clear better team even if Ryan Matthews misses again.
The Spartans will be without their starting Quarterback in Kyle Reed as Miles Eden gets the call and of late things have really not been very good since that loss to Boise. Today's home boys have lost three of four and have not covered a number in forever. They were also shut out at home by a mediocre at the very best Louisiana Tech team 21-0 and just got blitzed in Nevada.
There is no doubting that Fresno State has been a total disappointment this season and even when they won games they have not been very good. They have not covered since the week one win at Rutgers and have failed to grab the cash in nine straight. This is just flat out awful. But Tom Brandstater, Bear Pascoe, Lonyae Miller and the Bulldogs are still the superior team here and are ultra ultra due to take care of business and I see them doing just that.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - New Orleans Hornets -9
3 Units - Panthers/Bruins Over 5.5 +115
2 Units - Fresno St./San Jose St. Over 49.5
2 Units - Middle Tennessee St. +10.5
2 Units - LaSalle +16.5
DUNKEL
Mississippi vs. Utah
Ole Miss comes off an 89-71 win over South Alabama and looks to build on its three-year 20-7 ATS record after scoring 80 points or more in the previous game. The Rebels are the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has Mississippi favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-2).
Game 527-528: Delaware at St. Bonaventure
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 48.457; St. Bonaventure 59.768
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-3)
Game 529-530: Akron at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.459; Pittsburgh 80.663
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 25
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 21
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-21)
Game 531-532: Tennessee at Middle Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 72.481; Middle Tennessee State 59.055
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 10
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-10)
Game 533-534: Pepperdine at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 52.322; New Mexico State 63.557
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 11
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+14)
Game 535-536: Oregon at UC-Irvine
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 66.712; UC-Irvine 58.868
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5 1/2)
Game 537-538: Yale at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 43.275; Portland 56.895
Dunkel Line: Portland by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 10
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-10)
Game 539-540: Notre Dame at Loyola Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 66.775; Loyola Marymount 48.674
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 18
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 21
Dunkel Pick: Loyola Marymount (+21)
Game 541-542: North Carolina at UC-Santa Barbara
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 79.551; UC-Santa Barbara 58.378
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 21
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-17 1/2)
Game 543-544: Fairfield vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield
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Game 545-546: Virginia Tech vs. Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech
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Game 547-548: TN-Chattanooga vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: TN-Chattanooga
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Game 549-550: Seton Hall vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall
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Game 551-552: Southern Mississippi vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 57.795; Miami (FL) 67.885
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 10
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 6
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-6)
Game 553-554: San Diego vs. Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 66.295; Valparaiso 58.344
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6)
Game 555-556: LaSalle vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 55.612; Connecticut 74.363
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 19
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 16
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-16)
Game 557-558: Iona vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 52.491; Wisconsin 64.583
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 12
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+16 1/2)
Game 559-560: Morgan State vs. Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 46.925; Marshall 56.522
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 6
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-6)
Game 563-564: Mississippi vs. Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 67.365; Utah 61.345
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 6
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-2)
Game 565-566: Southern Illinois vs. UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois
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Game 567-568: Michigan vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan
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Game 569-570: North Florida vs. Cal Poly
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida
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Game 571-572: Rice at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Rice
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Game 573-574: Northern Illinois at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 45.029; Tennessee State 54.619
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (-6)
Game 575-576: Sacramento State at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 40.518; Washington State 67.663
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 27
Vegas Line: Washington State by 29
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+29)
NCAAF
Buffalo at Bowling Green
The Bulls are 18-8 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, while Bowling Green is 3-10 ATS in home games. Buffalo is the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4).
Game 109-110: Miami (OH) at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 66.856; Toledo 73.657
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 7; 55
Vegas Line: Toledo by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-3); Over
Game 111-112: Buffalo at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 80.036; Bowling Green 79.706
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4; 55
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Over
Game 113-114: Fresno State at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 78.778; San Jose State 80.124
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 50
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+4); Under
Stephen Nover
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies +9.5
Dallas is the only team in the NBA yet to win a home game. The Mavericks are 0-4 straight-up and against the spread at home this season.
The Mavericks most likely are going to win here, but I'll accept the Grizzlies at around double-digits. The Grizzlies are allowing fewer points per game than the Mavericks and are off their finest performance of the season, a 109-94 win against Sacramento on Tuesday.
Dallas is just 5-7 overall, but the Mavericks are playing well, too. They are coming off a 3-0 road trip. However, this is their first home game in nearly a week so there may be the usual distractions of returning home.
So far the Grizzlies haven't been the patsies they were last season. Rudy Gay is an established solid player with star potential. O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur have been two of the best rookies in the league.
The Mavericks may also be without their second-best player, forward Josh Howard. He's questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of Dallas' last game.
Grizzlies coach Marc Iavaroni and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle are good friend. That may prevent Carlisle from running up a score and open the back-door if the Mavericks do have a big lead toward the end.
Vegas Experts
Miami (OH) at Toledo
This will be the final home game in the eight year career of Toledo HC Tom Amstutz, who is resigning at year's end. What is truly remarkable about the Rockets season is that they have yet to win a single game at the Glass Bowl this season. That's a big reason why Amstutz is on the outs. Coming into this year, he was 35-6 Straight Up here! While it may seem that they have phoned it in for the year, Toledo is still 28-14 ATS since 1992 as home chalk and they will want to send Amstutz out on a winning note.
Play on: Toledo
John Ryan
Game: Oregon at Cal-Irvine
Prediction: Cal-Irvine
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UC Irvine AiS shows a 70% probability that UC-Irvine will lose this game by 5 or fewer points and also has a 50% probability of winning the game. AiS also projects an 82% probability that Irvine will score a minimum of 65 points in this game. Note that Irvine is a solid 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 92-62 ATS for 64% since 2002. Play on a home team in the month of November playing their 2nd game in 3 days. Oregon has had a documented struggle playing well in the first game of a road trip. Note that Oregon is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons. Take UC-Irvine.
Wunderdog
Memphis at Dallas
Pick: Memphis +9
What a difference a couple of years make! Dallas was unbeatable at home, or anywhere for that matter just two years ago. They slipped some last year and this year they have dropped all four at home. The margins have been big as their average loss has been nearly double-digits at 9.5 points per game. Memphis certainly hasn't done well in the win column on the road, but they have been highly competitive against some pretty good teams. They are a young talented team that hasn't learned how to win yet on the road, but they do play hard for 48 minutes. They have not been out of any road game this season, and their biggest loss has been by just 11 on the road. Dallas isn't worthy of this number from their ‘08-09 resume, so I'll take Memphis as a live dog here.
Nite Owl Sports
New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: 3 units New Orleans Hornets -9.5
The Ok City Thunder is just what the doctor ordered for a talented NO Hornets team that simply has not been playing very well lately, having droppped 5 of their L7 games. However, there are many reasons to feel good about Hornets' chances for a cover in this game, both in the form of positives for NO and negatives for Ok City.
Starting with the positives for NO, we see that Hornets were 14-6 ATS LY vs C teams, with an average MOV of 9 points in those 20 road set ups. Given that Ok City is a "D" team at best, we can expect a double digit win for this Hornets team that likes to pound crappy teams. And that's just what they did to the thunder LY when they were the Seattle Sonics, beating them all three times they platyed, and covering in the last two (wins of 14 and 31 points).
Apparently, neither the move from Seattle nor the nickname change from Sonics to Thunder has helped Ok City much, as they are an awful 1-11 overall, incl 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS at home in the new "digs" in Ok City. And in those 7 home games at their new home, the average MOL for thunder is 10.5 points, with their latest home trainwreck a 20 point humiliation laid on them by the Clippers, of all teams.
Still another edge results from the fact that the Hornets played several games (as the home team) in Ok City during the 2005 -06 and 2006-07 seasons, first in 2005-06 while the NO Superdome was being repaired after the damage inflicted by hurrricane katrina in Seot 2005, and then some more games in the 2006-07 season, at which time NO ownership was considering a move out of the Bayou State, with Ok City as a possible new home.While that did not come to pass, many Ok City fans took a liking to the NO players, and vice versa, so it will be interesting to see who these Okie fans will actually root for in this game, especially in NO breaks out on top early, as we expect they will.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -8
It’s not longer a secret that the Atlanta Hawks have become a contender in the East. After starting the season with six straight wins, the Hawks hit a bit of a cold streak, but they are back on track after beating Washington in their last test. Atlanta should have no problem getting by Charlotte with ease Friday, considering the Bobcats are playing without their best player in Jason Richardson. Charlotte has had an easy schedule early, playing 8 of their first 10 games at home. But the Bobcats have managed just a 3-7 record, getting blown out on a nightly basis. Charlotte has lost both of their road games this season, losing by 17 points at Cleveland and 3 points at New York. But the Bobcats have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall, getting crushed by 8 points or more in 3 of those 4 losses. Home teams are 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between the Bobcats and Hawks. Atlanta won their last two home meetings with Charlotte by 9 and 8 points, covering the spread in each. Anything short of a 10-point win tonight would be a surprise considering Charlotte is playing without their best player in Richardson. Cash in with Atlanta as the favorite.
Vernon Croy
Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -4.5
The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record and the Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a double digit loss at home. The Spurs are 18-9 SU after a loss by 10 or more points and they are 32-9 SU in their last 41 games after scoring 85 points or less. The Spurs are a very good defensive team with opponents averaging just 83.8 ppg against them over their last 5 games while shooting just 42.6% as a team. The Jazz are just -4 ATS and 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games while losing by an average of 9 ppg with no loss by less than 8 points. The Spurs have owned the Jazz at home with a perfect 7-0 ATS and 7-0 SU record the last 3 seasons against them. Take the Spurs as they bounce back with a strong game against a team they have dominated in the past and make sure you get on my CFB WAC Smash of the Month that cashes tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Buffalo at Bowling Green
Prediction: Buffalo
Play on Buffalo at 6:00 ET. Better team at the underdog price here. The Bulls hold a one-game edge over BGSU in the MAC East standings and can all but sew up the division race with a win here. They have covered 14 of their last 19 road games, all as an underdog, including last Thursday?s 43-40 outright win at Akron their fourth straight victory overall. They are 18-8 ATS as an underdog of any kind. Playing with triple revenge will motivate them here. Take Buffalo.
Johnny Guild
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans
Both of these two Western Athletic Conference rivals are struggling, but the Spartans are in more turmoil. San Jose State Quarterback Kyle Reed is playing below-par and the rushing offense has collapse. In addition a struggling defense. Take the Bulldogs. Fresno State has won nine of the last ten clashes, 6-4 ATS and has taken three of the last four at Spartan Stadium, going 2-2 ATS.
Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5